Coaching Change Madness
November 8th, 2020 at 7:44 AM ^
Probably not going to happen this year though.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:35 AM ^
It has to, I know the buyout and all the jazz he’s 10-8 in his last 18 they don’t look competitive In half the games there is no depth he looks lost on the sidelines season ticket cancellations are coming in big numbers if the move isn’t made this year which would still be 3 years late.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
I'd honestly be surprised if it happened this year. The buyout is big, not just because its 10 mil, and he only has 1 more year on it, but revenue is down across the league. They estimated "97 million loss at UM" if there was no football (ESPN article in May) and a "30+ million loss" if there is a season but conference only with no fans. Thats a hard lump to take without adding a 10 million topping on it.
Or... they can wait a year, with a possible "normal" season, refill the coffers and separate from Haurbaugh with no signing bonus.
Doesn't mean they can't put out feelers today and see who takes an interest.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:24 AM ^
The "michigan is broke" takes going around just boggle my mind. They'll just take out a loan or something. It's all funny-money anyway. You go out and buy the best coach available, cost be damned.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
3 years late? So fire him after the 2016 season? Or after he won the first 3 games of the season in 2017? I’m confused sir. Please explain.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
2020 minus 3 equals 2017 season he lost all the important games and finished 8-5 should have been gone and Michigan would be in a better position now then we are with Jim. After he had a hand off to a Tight End in the bowl game should have been the last straw!
EXPLAINED
November 8th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^
The problem Michigan has is Harbaugh's contract expires at the end of '21. They basically have three options:
- Do nothing for now. Wait and see how the rest of '20 and '21 go. This will pretty much make JH a lame duck which will kill recruiting for a couple of years.
- Extend him. That might avoid the recruiting disaster but will set the fan base off. How does that negotiation go with the current financial state of the athletic department and JH's recent job performance?
- Fire him. Would probably happen at the end of the year. Would be expensive paying the last year of JH's (plus staff) contract plus whatever buyout is needed for the new coach. Probably the most undesirable option for Manual and Schlissel.
Who knows how this will play out. I think these are in the order of likelihood.
November 8th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
If Michigan extends Harbaugh, then his buyout will only get larger and make it even harder to fire him. So to me, buyout considerations lean toward removing him now. And I just don't think it's feasible to have him coaching in the last year of his contract. Name one P5 school that has done that in the past 20 years unless the coach was retiring. No 4 or 5 star recruit would come here under those circumstances, and that would make it that much harder for a new coach to rebuild.
November 8th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
4. Have him announce his retirement this year, to take effect after 2021 and with a successor named (Gattis?).
November 8th, 2020 at 7:47 AM ^
This assumes that Warde Manuel is tired enough of his good friend's performance and explanations that he'll fire him in a Covid year, when the AD has zero excess funds to buy him out and also pay for someone else's buyout.
I don't disagree with the sentiment, JH is failing his team, his supporters, and himself. But I also don't believe Warde will/can pull the trigger. I suspect we're in this with Harbaugh through next year, at the least.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:34 AM ^
For all we know, he's already been extended, and it just hasn't been announced.
November 8th, 2020 at 7:55 AM ^
I don't understand you guys, I don't understand if you simply don't get it or chose not to. It does not matter who Michigan hires if Michigan is not going to play by the same rules as the elite programs. If you brought Urban Meyer or Nick Saban here they would not be as successful as they were in Alabama and Ohio because mighty Michigan will not play by those rules, and you kind of in a roundabout way know what those rules entail.
And the majority of you don't want to hear it, so keep enjoying your seven to eight win seasons and accept the fact that Michigan has become Iowa.
November 8th, 2020 at 7:57 AM ^
I agree to an extent, but right now Michigan's failures have nothing to do with how much talent we recruit.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:28 AM ^
Starting to think that being unable to keep Half of that talent from transferring after 1-2 years is a bigger problem than we care to address
November 8th, 2020 at 8:39 AM ^
Yes it absolutely is. It's pretty obvious if you read between the lines that he deliberately puts less talented players ahead of the highly rated guys on the depth chart to "humble" them or encourage them to work harder or something, so those guys just end up transferring.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:11 AM ^
Bullshit. Lots of other schools: don’t jump offsides 5 times a game, allow certain position groups to become completely dry for several years, don’t have a defensive plan that only works if everything goes perfectly (hint, it rarely does), don’t have an offense that looks like everyone is doing something completely different half of the plays, and most importantly, other schools can seem to find a QB that can.....you know...throw the football to a receiver without them having to completely break off their route to catch the ball or not have the ball sail 15 yards past them.
Love the JH that was hired. Completely fine with letting go of this current JH.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:37 AM ^
I wish I could give your post more than one up-vote because you're 100% right on the money.
1. The problem isnt that Michigan is hampered by some academic requirement other schools dont follow or that we dont have bagmen. That is complete and utter bullshit.
2. Right now the problem is two-fold and again, you nailed it. Terrible coaching and lack-luster to poor recruiting for certain position groups.
3. Only thing you didn't mention (but the poster above you did) is our attrition rate and how badly that has hurt us. I found it VERY telling that OSU had three sure first round picks come back to school once the season was announced while we had guys who will be undrafted FA's stay out.
There is a big problem right now both on the field and in the locker room with our team. Time for Jim to move on.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:42 AM ^
Yep. If I had to guess, Nico saw how bad the downfield passing was going to be, and decided it wasn't worth the risk to come back and get 400 yards receiving and 2 TDs. And Ambry figured he would go all season without ever getting targeted.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
Either we had a lady playing wide receiver I dont know about (Nicole?) or you got spell-checked cause your phone doesnt know any Nico's. The good news is you can go back and edit that now if you like.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:59 AM ^
Ducking autocowrecks ?♂️
November 8th, 2020 at 9:17 AM ^
1. The problem isnt that Michigan is hampered by some academic requirement other schools dont follow or that we dont have bagmen. That is complete and utter bullshit.
Alabama, Ohio State, and Clemson would all disagree with you. You know the three schools that are National Champion contenders EVERY year. And yes Jim Harbaugh and his staff need to be replaced.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:47 AM ^
Um sorry to burst your idealistic bubble hear but you couldnt be more wrong in thinking we our academic standards are a roadblock to recruiting (Rashan Gary's 9 on his Wonderlic says hello) and that we dont have bagman because we absolutely do.
FWIW I actually recruited for Michigan here in Northern Ohio from 92-94 under Bob Chmiel.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:59 AM ^
Dude. Can we please worry about Indiana and MSU before we start on OSU and Clemson? We are losing to teams who we out-recruit.
November 8th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Do MSU and Indiana, two teams that just beat us soundly, employ bagmen to grab a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits? Didn't think so.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
Agree 100% on attrition. Imagine if this team had James Hudson at LT, Aubrey Solomon at DT along with Mike Dwomfour, Ben St Juste at CB, Tarik Black at WR and was able to get Nico and Ambry to return. Harbaugh has shown a surprising inability to keep players here.
As for recruiting key positions, need look no further than Marquan McCall, Dobbs, Justin Rogers, Rayshaun Benny et al just in the past 3 cycles. Embarrassing.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
Agree with what most people are saying but Juste was medically cleared to play by the UM doctors, which is why he transferred.
November 8th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^
I'm hoping that this was intended to be sarcastic. Because, he would be here if Harbaugh thought he should keep him.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:39 AM ^
The seeming lack of cornerback talent is confounding, but not surprising.
Why not, based on the fact that this year is over, put in Seldon and DGW? Let’s see the freshmen safeties, move Dax to corner.
Those freshmen are talented, so let them play. Gray needs benched. Green seems like he’s competing, gaining confidence. Yet, show the recruits that the talent recruited doesn’t have to wait through the meritocracy of seniority that seems to be the issue.
We should be running a scheme learning friendly defense that allows the talent to play without being lost in Brown’s stupid terminology.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:08 AM ^
Yes, it's beyond time to bench Gray. He hasn't performed to anyone's expectations and just gets burned every game. A freshman with speed will be an upgrade, even if he makes the occasional freshman mistake. It's not like Gray isn't making mistakes on top of being too slow for the requirements of his job.
Green has earned the #1 CB spot. He makes beginner mistakes because this is his first year getting PT, but he competes, has the necessary athleticism, and is always in decent position.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:02 AM ^
This is nonsense. Even with losses to osu we’d all be having a much different conversation if UM won they games they should have won.
harbaugh has won 10,10, 8, 10, 9 games at UM. The floor should have been 11, 11, 10,11, 10 am with UM being a perennial top 6-10 team. That is using the talent they have today. Hell maybe they don’t become osu, fine, they are in the bama/Clemson territory but this isn’t just about osu. This is about pooping your pants in games you should win.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
I don’t remember how long ago I said it, but it was shortly after someone posted some sort of numerical/statistical analysis about beating rivals, winning conference titles and bowl games etc. The bottom line was that UM isn’t even Iowa, our closest approximation is actually Minnesota. Minnesota’s record vs Wisconsin is no worse than UM’s against OSU over the last 20 years. Minnesota’s record against UM is not really much worse than UM’s record against MSU over the last 20 years. Minnesota’s record is no worse against Iowa over the last 20 years than UM’s record against ND. Sure, UM has been closer to the mountaintop than Minnesota has been, but the end result was not really much different when you consider the rivalry records and ultimate goals of the programs.
The teams that have won the West (East) include Wisconsin (OSU), MSU (Iowa), and Northwestern (PSU). The program is in shambles because OSU is on fire, and I don’t see a coach out there who can turn it around since Harbaugh clearly can’t.
It’s depressing, but not every program is going to be great. I suggest just keeping the actual importance of what happens on Saturdays on a football field in perspective. Live will go on, UM will eventually beat OSU, even if it’s not for another 17 years.
November 8th, 2020 at 3:51 PM ^
wah wah wah
But then again I'm not intimately connected to the college football scene as you apparently are. Thank goodness for all of the self-proclaimed "telling-it-like-it-is" experts.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:08 AM ^
At this point, I can see then end of the Harbaugh era on the horizon.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:43 AM ^
here's to hoping you and warde are looking at the same horizon
November 8th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^
They need to be relegated to the Horizon League.
November 8th, 2020 at 8:25 AM ^
You forgot to tell her about Counterstrike guy?
November 8th, 2020 at 8:42 AM ^
Hugh Freeze is winning at Liberty. Liberty doesn’t have more talent than VTech.
Neither Liberty nor Freeze is clean, per se, but it isn’t like he’s recruited enough talent there to so quickly make Liberty more talented than VTech.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:59 AM ^
Liberty has had their issues recently but now that Jerry Jr is finally gone, I'm hoping it gets cleaned up. Freeze was hired when Jr was there and I wouldn't expect him to stay around much longer especially with the success he's had.
Freeze has proven to be a good Xs and Os coach and I'm not sure LU can find someone to replace that, not that anyone around here cares.
I'd expect Freeze to take a job in the south very soon.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:36 AM ^
Harbaugh has one more year on his contract. Let it ride. Firing a coach during a pandemic is a waste of money. No coach in their right mind would touch this toxic program or it's fan base.
November 8th, 2020 at 9:50 AM ^
Echoes of the past - some historical perspective - thanks to the Bentley Library archives.
In 1947 Fritz Crisler retired as the HC. He had helped usher in two platoon football, the winged helmet, and his 1947 team was one of the best ever.
He was followed in 1948-1958 by Bennie Oosterbaan as HC. Bennie had been a great player and one of the rare players to be selected as as an all-american end, basket player and all big ten as a baseball player. He started out great and the 1948 team had Al Wistert at DT, Bump Elliott as QB and won the AP national championship. The 1950 team won the 1951 Rose Bowl.
Ultimately he retired from coaching in 1958 after compiling at 63-33-4 record, saying "the pressure finally got to me. Not the kind that comes from the outside. Not from my bosses or the fans. I mean the pressure that builds up inside a head coach whether he wins or loses." During later part, Woody Hayes at OSU and Duffy Daugherty at MSU started building powerful programs. In 1962 Daugherty was asked to go to remake Nebraska but declined since he felt the Spartans were rising, and so Nebraska would hire Tom Devaney.
After Oosterbaan, the UM hired Bump (Pete) Elliott, an ex-star player to comeback as the HC. During 1959-1968, his teams would win one Big Ten championship (1964) and one Rose Bowl (1965). While good by most standards, his teams were not good enough for the expectations and suffered a 50-14 loss to OSU in 1968 after having won their first 8 games. After the game, Elliott resigned (consider that - a 8-1 season leading to resignation, overall career 51-42-2) and then AD Don Canham hired Bo Schembechler.
In response to reports that he had given Elliott an ultimatum, Canham told Detroit News writer, Joe Falls "Bump is not naive- he knows that when you work at a place for 10 years and you're not winning consistently, it doesn't become fun for anybody - the coach, the alumni, the players or anybody else. He reportedly offered him an associate AD position but Elliott chose to move on to be Iowa's AD - and ended up having a great effect. He hired Dan Gable (wrestling coach great), Hayden Fry (football) and Tom Davis and Lute Olson (BB), so he got some good coaches.
So expectations have been high for a long time, the pressure has been high for a long time and the people in the athletic department know that is part of the legacy here. These were coaches that actually won conference titles and Rose Bowls and had positive winning records and yet they moved on. The failure to win in conference probably is most worrisome. Rich Rodriguez was 0.250 in conference, Bump Elliott was 0.485, and Brady Hoke was 0.563. They are three of the 5 lowest conference winning percentages.
Lowest Big Ten winning percentage
1. Rich Rodriguez (.250)
2. Bump Elliott (.485)
3. Tad Wieman (.500) (1927-1928)
4. Harry Kipke (.560) (1929-1937)
5. Brady Hoke (.563)
November 8th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
FWIW this is really good stuff. You should create a diary on this and maybe continue the trajectory through Bo to Gary, Lloyd, Rich, Brady and finally Jim.
Seriously. This is too good to be just a random comment that somebody will say TL/DR in an random thread IMO.
November 8th, 2020 at 12:18 PM ^
I agree, move to a diary.
I also think it's interesting about the Bump Elliott / Harbaugh parallels. Though Harbaugh has been more successful, their careers are converging a bit more than I'd like.
November 8th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Chalmers "Bump" Elliott graduated after the 1947 season—his brother Pete was the QB in '48. Bump was hired to replace Oosterbaan in '59.
Bob Devaney went to Nebraska in 1962.
I'd disagree that Elliott's teams were "good by most standards"—here's his season by season record with overall, conference, and conference standing:
1959: 4–5; 3–4 7th
1960 5–4; 3–4 T–5th
1961 6–3; 3–3 6th
1962 2–7; 1–6 10th
1963 3–4–2; 2–3–2 7th
1964 9–1; 6–1 1st
1965 4–6; 2–5 T–7th
1966 6–4; 4–3 T–3rd
1967 4–6; 3–4 T–5th
1968 8–2; 6-1 2nd
Over his ten-year stint at UM, Elliott was:
Record against MSU: 2-7-1
Record against OSU: 3-7
Overall, it's mediocre at best.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:06 AM ^
Just stop watching Michigan football. Your blood pressure will go down and you'll get other things done. It's the same thing every year with this team.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
This is nonsense. Michigan needs to stay the course with Harbaugh and Brown. Things will get better. Keep the faith.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:42 AM ^
There is zero evidence to support your position.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^
Whatever happens, my biggest concern is the damage done this year will be something the program pays for years to come.
November 8th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
While I think changes should be made I have an aside, I don’t think that the Harbaugh that walked through he doors 6 years ago would put up with the level of performance of some of these coaches. Somethings different with the competition/meritocracy side of things . I’m not totally against moving on from Harbaugh but I also am balancing that out with the thought that it’s highly likely the team becomes .500 at best and that 5-7 years would pop up. Part of me thinks this might be the best that can be expected.
November 8th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
When Jimmy was hired in 2014, I said to many friends, “... we got who we wanted.”
Fast forward almost 6 years later, now I’m saying to the same friends, “... we got who we wanted.”
Look, I want to win. Be relevant every year. Compete for BIG conference and CFP championships every year.
But, consider this for M football:
- 3 coaches from 1969 thru 2007
39 seasons
What we could be looking at after this season ...
- 3 coaches from 2008 thru 2020
13 seasons
Maybe a change is needed? Idk? Careful what we wish for, or our slippery slope starts to look like The Seminoles, Hook ‘Em Horns, Rocky Top and The U, doesn’t it?
November 8th, 2020 at 11:53 AM ^
The odds are he stays to finish out the contract. Very bad optics to pay a $10m buyout 13 months before you don't have to when 8 of those months don't have football games.
I am looking at recruiting flips and transfers. Once the tea leaves start to say "he gone", you will know it by what the players do.
Remember way back when, when some of you, (checks posting history to confirm he was not one of them) thought some NFL team was going to swoop in and steal him? If only...