Choose Your Own Adventure: Program Success This Year

Submitted by thelomasbrowns on September 4th, 2023 at 3:49 PM

Which would you choose?

Scenario 1: Michigan Wins The National Championship

  • JJ enters the draft
  • Harbaugh's prediction of 20 players drafted comes true
  • Harbaugh, facing additional NCAA penalties, takes an NFL job

Scenario 2: Michigan Wins Ten Games (Losses to PSU, OSU)

  • JJ is predicted to go in the third round and decides to come back for his fourth year.
  • The 'one more year' campaign players go to the draft, but everyone else with eligibility returns.
  • Harbaugh stays to build the program back up. 
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AlbanyBlue

September 4th, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^

I would take purgatory for a decade to win a National Title. But in reality, it could be as short as one or two down years, or perhaps just a small hiccup the following year (2024) if our defense stays solid. 

Part of me is thinking you are exploring the "oh God, what if Harbaugh leaves?" question. I personally think that we will be fine, especially after our last couple years and however this year goes. Michigan will get an excellent coach after Jim departs -- don't assume it's going to be Carr to RichRod. 

Joined: 09/11/2010

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GoBlueTal

September 4th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^

I hate playoffs, I hate the delusional nature of national championships, I am the grouchy get off my lawn asshole.  I _still_ choose 1 100% of the time.  Your concerns are unwarranted, the "downsides" of what you've indicated there are manageable, the upsides are tremendous.  

We'll be fine if Harbaugh moves, we've got 4 future head coaches showing their stuff through the non-conference.  We'll be fine if 20 players go to the pros - You think having 20 players go to the pros in 1 year won't help us in recruiting?!?  "Come play for us, play for the championships on the biggest stage; we've got playing time available, and we put kids in the NFL."  OMG terrible recruiting pitch, no 5 star ever wanted to hear that... 

Even if your worst case comes true, 5 years of "purgatory" while we rebuild, it's been 26 years since I was in the Rose Bowl one beautiful magical New Years night in 1998...  I'd take 5 years to get back (it wouldn't take 5 years to get back).  
 

Joined: 10/15/2011

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thelomasbrowns

September 4th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^

Note: I didn't say I was concerned or that there was one I preferred. Only that 1 would probably result in a few down years. I think with 2 we'd probably continue to hover around 10+ wins. 

I thought it was an interesting thought exercise: Would rather go 13 wins and then 7/8 for a few years or stick around 10 for the foreseeable future?

Joined: 01/05/2018

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AlbanyBlue

September 4th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^

Flaws are showing.....

There's no reason to assume we will drop to 7/8 wins in 2024. Defense will still be solid. OL solid. TE solid. I trust Hart about RB. WR will be fine. QB not ideal, but not doom-worthy.

Also, I wouldn't assume "a few down years" -- we are starting to be a reloader instead of a rebuilder as a program. Seems like we are figuring NIL out, as well as dealing with the portal as best we can given departmental academic constraints.

Finally,, Who the hell would want 10-2 for a few years versus getting a damn National Championship? After all, 10-2 basically assumes we're losing to two of OSU/PSU/USC/Wisconsin every single year. That's not great when put up against grabbing the trophy one year.

I am not negging you for this -- you'll have plenty of that without me. But it's blatantly obvious. You take the championship. And this year is the best chance. Let's get it.

Joined: 09/11/2010

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Romeo50

September 4th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^

Scenario 1 is going to happen I am afraid. The NCAA'a Goodellian power granted by the voluntary members will allow grudge laden SEC schools to enforce selective punishment on challenges to their domain.

The "I don't recall" response will be interpreted as uncooperative and that is worse than endless level I violations of the southern way. Being forgetful is a sin worse than drag racing between strip clubs as we all know.

Joined: 03/09/2013

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trueblueintexas

September 4th, 2023 at 5:27 PM ^

I agree with your answer.
1) Win the National Championship

2) keep Harbaugh

3) let natural attrition take place

4) try it all again next year

5) ???

6) Profit
 

When people at work try to present either or options, I typically respond with “what are options three and D?”  There are always more options, many people just don’t like them. 

Joined: 11/10/2008

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RobM_24

September 4th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^

National Championship. If we can't beat PSU and OSU this year, why would I care about running it back with a lesser roster next year? This is Harbaugh's year to get it done, regardless of his future plans. 

Joined: 01/27/2014

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SalvatoreQuattro

September 4th, 2023 at 4:55 PM ^

Michigan should still be a top ten team next year regardless of expected departures.

Defense will be loaded, offensive line will be talented as will skill positions. If JJ returns this may be a top five team

24 draft is going to be deep at QB. Williams, Maye, Penix, Hartman, Daniels, Travis, Daniels… at least three first rounders.

25 is less crowded.

 

 

 

Joined: 11/30/2010

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Hoek

September 4th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^

Jim isn’t leaving, his daughter is a sophomore at Michigan, his son coaches Michigan, and it also takes two to tango, unfortunately the NFL likes the younger coach. 

Joined: 01/29/2010

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Mgopioneer

September 4th, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^

Scenario 1: play football with the wife tonight knowing no football for a few weeks. 

scenario 2: no football tonight , 2 punches to the groin and still no promise to play football the next few weeks

Joined: 03/02/2021

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mgoblue78

September 4th, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^

Sure I want the car, but door #2 here is the goat. Maybe beat OSU and MSU, also keep the Jug, but lose to PSU and make a major bowl, which we win for once and everyone comes back. That's at least a lifetime supply of Turtle Wax and Rice-a-Roni.

Joined: 12/15/2011

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Don

September 4th, 2023 at 5:47 PM ^

What if Michigan goes 10-2 and Harbaugh leaves anyhow?

What if Kate Upton declares her undying passionate love for you, but then you become impotent?

 

Joined: 06/30/2008

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DennisFranklinDaMan

September 4th, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^

A more interesting question, for me, is "will we consider this season a success if we go undefeated or lose one and beat Ohio State ... but lose again in the first round of the playoffs."

I would, all day. I'm a child of the 70s, where beating OSU (and perhaps winning the Big Ten title) is always mission number 1. And I would cackle with knowing glee if we beat them three times in a row.

But I wonder if, at this point, the expectations have changed so sufficiently that I'm in the minority.

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AlbanyBlue

September 4th, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^

Now that is interesting. Go 11-1 or 12-0 with a win over OSU. Go to Playoff. This assumes we win the conference title game, too.

Then lose in the playoff semi-final. I say "Yes, great season", but I also curse a bit. How loudly I curse depends on whether or not we are favored to win that semi. If we go into the CFP as a 4 and get matched up as an 7-10 point dog, then maybe I just mutter "dammit" when we lose that game. But if we roll in as a 1 or 2 seed, favored by a TD, and then lose, well, that's a string of expletives. Still an overall great season though.

In other words, I look at our post-season performance and I am not assuming a National Title is likely. But I am maintaining that we have a solid chance. As much as any team this year, for sure. Especially if we maintain the flexibility we showed in Game 1 to switch to the pass game as needed, quickly and decisively.

Joined: 09/11/2010

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King Tot

September 4th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^

It's option A and it isn't close.

We have enough depth at most positions, outside QB, that it should be more reload than rebuild. We would likely see some recruits flip and we could become and even more attractive transfer destination as well.

If we promoted Moore to HC and retain most of the staff the program should be able to keep momentum going.

Joined: 11/29/2016

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LSAClassOf2000

September 4th, 2023 at 8:09 PM ^

Can I customize my own scenario here? What if I am not entirely keen on all of the conditions that come with one of them but would be fine with the overall result?

Also, why is this a thread?

Joined: 01/07/2011

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