Chances of a Rivalry Upset
Maizenbrew has an interesting discussion between Drew Hallett and Anthony Broom on the chances of our Wolverines beating either the Spartans or the Buckeyes this year:
Their conclusion is that Michigan will not do it. They look at recent history, talent/matchups, home field advantage, general Harbaughness, etc. I would like to respectfully disagree with their conclusion. I think the general randomness of college football means that we can reasonably expect to savor an upset over a hated rival this year. I won’t go full Mathlete on you, but my reasoning is based on probability.
We’ve all become conditioned to expect the worst kind of luck persistently. When was the last time Michigan had a favorable turnover ratio? When was the last time turnovers broke even or better against a top 20 opponent? (The first B1G Michigan-Nebraska game? Yeah, it has been that long.) Even during the glory years, we all knew that in any given season Michigan was likely to have one “say what?!” loss against a clearly weaker team. When was the last time a top 20 team had an “off day” against us? Yeah, it’s been that long. My point being that luck changes season to season, game to game, or even play to play. (2011) To use the language of probability, football plays are independent variables. We don’t know what normal luck feels like anymore against MSU or OSU, but that can change in a moment.
To add some numbers to it, let me use one of the NOT fun facts from the article. Drew pointed out that Michigan is 2-12 in the last seven seasons’ worth of games with MSU & OSU. (Combine that with Michigan’s recent history in Bowl games, and the whole fan base heads for the rest room, but I digress…) Let’s apply a little probability analysis. Suppose that all seven years both the Spartans and the Buckeyes were clearly superior, such that they had an 80% chance of winning any given game. I don’t think it was near that bad, certainly not in some seasons, but let’s go with the pessimistic case to illustrate the point. If you apply math to these numbers, Michigan still should have won 3 games or more (55% of the time). Even assuming we stunk, we still should have gotten lucky more often than two times.
Turning to this season, we may not know exactly when or how the ball bounces in our favor, but the odds are reasonably good it will decisively bounce in our favor in one of those two games. (To use another illustration, Ohio State is the overwhelming favorite to repeat as National Champions. They will be favored in each and every one of their games, possibly excepting a playoff match-up. What is the chance someone other than OSU actually wins the Championship? Yes, a lot more than 50%.) Again, assume that this season the Spartans and the Buckeyes are clearly superior. Even if that is as much as a 70% chance, Michigan still has a 50% chance of winning one of those games (0.7 squared).
So I’m saying there’s a chance; a mathematically significant chance.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
Beat Utah.
August 27th, 2015 at 3:22 PM ^
"That's why they play the game" - Said some fucking smart dude.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^
Harbaugh% chance of an upset.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
August 27th, 2015 at 12:43 PM ^
...on inevitably winning the 2018 Fields Medal!
August 27th, 2015 at 7:41 PM ^
When Harbaugh was asked to do his own math he gave a ZERO % chance of a upset. ZERO !!
August 27th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
Will we beat our Rivals? Does a Jackal stare right at the sun when it sets?!? Does an arachnid hear colors? Do sweaty gym shorts stink? Does Elmo really like being tickled? Are my posts stupid?
The answer is maybe, but I don't really know. Scholars can only ponder these mysteries.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^
MI beats at least one of them if not both. Raback it.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
How many lemons will you wager?
August 27th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
As long as they are with tequila...
August 27th, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
MATH'd
August 27th, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
So we're putting our faith in luck, now?
August 27th, 2015 at 12:38 PM ^
For the last 7 years we put our faith in, at various times, a demonic CEO running the AD, an Appalachian yokel that thought the OSU rivalry was comparable to one with Pitt, and Fred Flintstone.
Let's give luck a chance.
August 27th, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
for this season, and to place my hopes and dreams in an unreasonably optimistic outlook that includes interpreting the following stats to portend a great karmic reversal of fortune for the maize & blue:
"In 1969, a first-year Michigan coach by the name of Bo Schembechler guided the Wolverines to a 24-12 upset win over the top-ranked Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. In 1995, a first-year Michigan coach by the name of Lloyd Carr led the Wolverines to a 31-23 win over the No. 2 Buckeyes in Ann Arbor. In fact, since 1930, first-year Michigan coaches are 7-1 against Ohio State and a perfect 4-0 at home."
August 27th, 2015 at 6:49 PM ^
That "Appalachian yokel" is Coach of the Year in the Pac Fucking 12 right now.
August 28th, 2015 at 8:54 AM ^
was the Big 10 Coach of the Year in 2011. I really don't see your point.
"Rodriguez has the lowest winning percentage (.405) of any coach in Michigan football's history and never beat Michigan's chief rival, Ohio State University, and in-state rival Michigan State University."
August 27th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
August 27th, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
so you're saying there's a chance!!
August 27th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
this is Michigan, Harbaugh, a new attitude, and decent talent. I believe
August 27th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
I think we get one of them at home. Not both, but one. And if I had to guess who, it'd be OSU, only because no matter what the rankings have been the last few years, despite our having a completely inept head coach, Michigan has played them tough. Now we have a damn good coach, so it could happen.
Maybe MSU is the more likely team since they've got more "weaknesses" to exploit than OSU does, but until we see Michigan actually match MSU's intensity in that game, I'm not holding my breath. MSU hasn't just beaten Michigan the last few years: they've humiliated Michigan. I don't know what kind of pep talk Dantonio gives his players before that game, but whatever he says, its working. They play that game like its the Super Bowl and they play like they have nothing to lose.
August 27th, 2015 at 3:20 PM ^
I don't think intensity will be a problem.
Dantonio does a hell of a job getting his guys up for you guys. Pretty sure Harbaugh can match that.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
/Rabackd
August 27th, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
college football is unpredictable and more so with a team that has a new coach/the right coach. Going into the playoff last season who would have picked the buckeyes? Most national pundits felt they didn't even deserve to be in the playoffs. The bgtn overall was trashed as being a 2nd tier conference likely to to lose all their bowl games. That's why they play the games and don't just post the score according to sportswriters. Can't wait for next Thursday!
August 27th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
MSU. I just think Michigan has most if not all of the intangibles on our side in that one, plus home field advantage, plus HARBAUGH. And history shows that Harbaugh always has that one coach he just disdains for whatever reason, and you just know that's going to be Dantonio. So, he's going to come up with a special game plan for them and really get the team fired up. Even if MSU has more talent/experience, it won't matter. That's all I got.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:40 PM ^
I think 80% is fairly optimistic in most of those years
August 27th, 2015 at 12:44 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
August 27th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 3:34 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^
They don't play a style that blows you out if your defense is competent. Ours was very competent the last two years, which is why we have been in the game the last two years. Also, in RichRod's last year, we had a lead in the second quarter, which would've been larger if the Gibbons of 2011 was there in 2010 (How silly is it that we had to go for it on 4th and long in FG territory?). The gap between us and Sparty is pretty small in their favor, if there is a gap.
August 27th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
Sure the defense played fine, and they were put in some bad spots, but when your offense has -48 rushing yards, that doesn't scream "competitive game" to me.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
August 27th, 2015 at 9:56 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
August 28th, 2015 at 3:10 AM ^
August 30th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
Take it for what you will given that we've not played a single game yet this season, but the base estimate from Massey, which of course includes zero data from this year, is as follows for those games:
Michigan State - 16%
Ohio State - 9%
It is important to note, of course, that the six games in from of MSU - if we do well - will probably result in some upward adjustment of that, but how much depends on how MSU does. Similar story with OSU, of course, which is four games distant once the MSU game is concluded. Once the season begins, the beauty of this algorithm is in the fluctuations week to week, in my opinion.
It's just an estimate based on past performance, but the notion of "right now, don't count on it" seems sound enough using available statistics. Of course, the optimist in me knows anything is possible (even if it isn't probable) in football and we could steal one of these games.
Actually, one of the weaknesses of the approach is that it doesn't appreciate the intangibles of the Harbaugh era to date, so it will be interesting to see how accurate these estimates, well, may not be in the case of a re-energized MIchigan.
August 27th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
Have you heard of the Gambler's Fallacy? Some of your logic seems to be predicated on the fact that we've been unlucky for a while, so we are due to be lucky. That's not how random events work. If you flip a tails ten times in a row, the 11th time is still 50/50.
August 27th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
This is exactly what it is.
Even assuming that we've really been "unlucky" (as opposed to, you know, actually bad) this argument basically, "Hey, we're due! The universe owes us this!"
August 27th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
Yes, I completely agree with your coin tossing example. It's 50/50 every time. That is what I meant by independent. However, that is my point precisely. We have such a bad case of PTSD with Staee and TSDS that we think the ball will usually bounce their way. For a game like football with multiple indepent events, luck is a bell curve. Equal luck is the center of bell curve. To the left and the right are equal amounts of bad luck and good luck, respectively. We've ended up on the left side so many times we've forgotten there is just as much room on the right, and any given game could end up anywhere. Therefore, if you play more than one game, the chance of one (or more) games ending on the right side goes up exponentially with the number of games played. We are in violent agreement.
August 27th, 2015 at 1:05 PM ^
Takes a stranglehold on the position I think we have a chance at beating MSU. If our QB spot is a revolving door there is little to no chance we beat either. I don't see us beating OSU even with a solid QB. But I think we do have a chance at MSU if our QB question is settled.
August 27th, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^
Hoke had OSU within one score twice. I don't think Urban's unbeatable by our current players.
August 27th, 2015 at 1:52 PM ^
Hoke had OSU within one score twice. I don't think Urban's unbeatable by our current players.
August 27th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
What were the odds a Stanford team that was 1-11 the prior year would knock off #2 USC in the Colliseum in 2007? What were the odds unranked Stanford would beat #8 Oregon and #9 USC in back to back games in 2009? What were the odds the 49ers....you get the point.
August 28th, 2015 at 5:12 PM ^
Ask me after the Utah game. It's impossible to make evidence or math-based predictions about a machine that has never previously existed and for which there is no observations or data. Do I FEEL like we can win one of these games at home based on speculative improvement projections, general Harbaugh induced optimism and general yearning? Most definitely.
August 27th, 2015 at 3:11 PM ^
August 27th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^
When's the last time we beat a top 10 opponent?
I give us a 20% chance to beat Sparty and a 25% chance to beat Ohio, not because Sparty is better, but because we always play better for the Ohio game.
August 27th, 2015 at 7:51 PM ^
Harbaugh has a higher chance of beating our 2 main rivals than any other team in the B1G.
August 27th, 2015 at 9:55 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad