CFP Rankings Out - No Change in top 4
Mates,
As per title, not a huge change in the top 4. Reasoning here:
Georgia led off the CFP selection committee's rankings for the third straight week, followed by Ohio State at No. 2, Michigan at No. 3 and TCU at No. 4. The Buckeyes and Wolverines, who play this coming Saturday in Columbus, both trailed in the second half last week before keeping their undefeated records intact. Michigan and TCU both needed go-ahead field goals in the final minute to hold off Illinois and Baylor, respectively.
I would add that ohio had the fight of their lives, up by 3 with 6 minutes left in the game and the Terps on the 40.
Link to the article here: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35087054/georgia-ohio-st-michigan-tcu-remain-top-cfp-rankings
The Game is 40 hours away....
Go Blue, beat ohio!
XM
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:49 PM ^
The Game is 40 hours away? I can’t believe I forgot today’s Thanksgiving.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:11 PM ^
oops, meant 90, really 88 now.
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:49 PM ^
LSU is a horseshit pick at 5. Blown out at home by UT, and another home loss to FSU. USC clearly more deserving but SEC.
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:55 PM ^
USC definitely more deserving, but I don't think it's very relevant. I don't see any way that LSU will beat UGa in the SEC championship
November 22nd, 2022 at 7:56 PM ^
They might if Georgia treats it like a scrimmage, which at times it seemed they did last year.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:09 PM ^
Agreed. Even Clemson should have a beef with this. But hey, the committee is showing what it thinks of USC & Clemson is all the better for us.
3 days and 16 hours does not equal 40, but I appreciate your enthusiasm XM.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^
Agree. Hope they get killed by Georgia. I mean if we're looking at 2 loss teams, Penn State only has losses to #2 and #3.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^
Good point about PSU - probably the two "best losses" of any 2-loss teams.
The counterpoint is that their best win is either Purdue or Minnesota. That's quite a gap from #2 and #3. Iowa can also claim those two wins.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:17 PM ^
Given the SEC bias, I have to think that PSU’s best win is at Auburn as far as the Committee is concerned.
November 23rd, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
The SEC bias really comes to the forefront the closer we get to the Playoffs. I'd definitely have USC over LSU in the 5th spot
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:08 PM ^
“The Game is 40 hours away....”
Are you referring to the Lions/Bills game?
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:30 PM ^
This has got to be some sort of SEC playoff insurance policy or compulsory butt kissing. Like maybe they figure LSU is going to lose to Georgia so it’s not going to matter
Even if they do beat Georgia somehow, ain’t no way they drop them out of the top 4, so we’re likely to have a 2 loss LSU above a 1 loss Michigan or OSU and it’s horsedung.
November 23rd, 2022 at 6:24 AM ^
The committee is basically making it clear that they 100% will put 2 SEC teams in if they have the chance. If LSU wins, it'll be LSU & UGA. If there's a lot of chaos, they've got Alabama lurking back there.
The fact that they have 2 loss LSU over USC and Clemson is outrageous. No doubt the SEC is the strongest league, but it's not like LSU has all these quality wins and losses that can justify them being so high. They lost by 27 at home. They barely beat mediocre Auburn and Arkansas teams. They do not deserve to be #5 but the committee is slurping the SEC so here we are
November 23rd, 2022 at 7:33 AM ^
Why is the SEC the strongest conference this year? Sure, it has UGA - the best looking team through last year, as well. Bama is really good, but has lost twice and looked shaky several other times. LSU is really good, but has lost twice and looked shaky several other times. UTenn is pretty good, but has no defense whatsoever. Is anyone scared of Ole Miss? Who else? Arkansas? UF or A&M? LOL!! Nobody else...
The BIG12, from top to bottom, is probably the best league this year. They don't have any 'elite' teams, other than maybe TCU - if we actually consider them elite (I don't). But it has a crapload of pretty good teams. I'd put the ACC at the bottom of the P5 conferences, again.
November 23rd, 2022 at 9:56 AM ^
I think the Big 12 might be the best league on average - there are a bunch of quality teams that are in that #10-25 range, but they are not top heavy. TCU will earn a spot in the CFP if they go undefeated, but I don't think anyone is pretending theyre actually national title threats. The SEC definitely has the highest concentration of talent, but is clearly weaker than usual this year
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
I was wondering how the playoff rankings jive with SP+ rankings. I don't have an ESPN+ account, so I had to use the aggregate SP+ score from Football Outsiders. In case anyone else is interested, here's what it looks like (horizontal bars are the mean SP+ score for each conference):
At first blush, PSU seems to be getting the short end of the stick, but given the relatively weak B1G this year, they don't really have any quality wins to hang their hat on.
Clemson is sitting on top of an otherwise dogshit ACC. TCU is benefitting from a relatively strong Big12. They don't have any really top programs, but they also don't seem to have many super weak teams in the conference either.
November 22nd, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
Texas wins underachiever of the year.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:05 PM ^
Did you forget about Texas A&M?
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
No, but advanced metrics say Texas is actually good. They just can't win. I enjoy laughing at both equally, however.
November 22nd, 2022 at 10:14 PM ^
Remember - A&M was ranked 6th in the pre season poll. They are very good. Great recruits. They pay a lot for their coach. They are in the SEC.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Again?
Maybe they should rename that the Texass trophy since they have won it so many times.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^
Not surprised by no change in the top 4, but LSU at 5 perplexes me. USC just got utterly screwed. Now they have virtually no chance to pass the loser of M-OSU. I could see LSU as the first 1-loss team if you want to sell SEC, but in front of USC? No fucking way.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^
Um, if USC wins out, they're passing the loser of Michigan and Ohio State. They may not make the playoff if LSU and TCU win out, but they will definitely pass the loser of Michigan and Ohio State.
November 23rd, 2022 at 12:08 PM ^
USC will get in if they beat ND and Oregon.
November 22nd, 2022 at 9:53 PM ^
LSU at #5 is objectively ridiculous.
November 23rd, 2022 at 8:39 AM ^
100% pure unadulterated Columbian horse****
November 23rd, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
The cfp committee is very subjective most of the time, even though they attempt a mantle of objectivity, especially when it comes to the sec.
Right now, there is no direct data point that suggests Alabama, for instance, is any better than PSU. Yet, the committee subjectively is using past years results to prop up Alabama, and by extension, much of the rest of the sec as far as how good they are compared to other teams.
There IS a direct data point (that the committee claims to use in comparing teams) that suggests that PSU is better than LSU, that being a common opponent in auburn. PSU blasted auburn off of their own field, while lsu trailed auburn for much of their game and escaped with a 4 point win. LSU, however, gets the benefit of the subjective idea that the sec is so much better than everyone else, so their victory over Alabama boosted their resume as compared to PSU. So much so, in fact, that LSU jumped around 10 spots in the polls after that win, distancing itself from all the other 2loss teams not named Alabama. An Alabama that hasn’t really shown this year that it is anywhere close to as good as they have been in the past.
It’s this kind of subjectivity, in favor of the sec, which hurts all of the other conferences, and makes the polling itself more of a self fulfilling prophecy regarding the sec.
Lsu being #5 at this time is bs. USC may not have a “better win” (subjectively I might add) than LSU’s victory over Alabama, but they only have one loss, compared to lsu, and it is a better loss than either of LSU’s losses. Of course, comparing losses with no direct data points is also a subjective comparison.
The only reasonable conclusion to make, then, is that the committee looks much more favorably upon the sec than the other conferences, and uses subjective, indirect data points to continue to prop up the idea of the strength of the sec, even when there are objective direct data points that might suggest otherwise. In other words, there ABSOLUTELY is an sec bias when it comes to polling, especially with the cfp.