CFP Ranking 3 - announced tonight, what do you expect, or hope to see?
The CFP’s next set of rankings will be released this evening. There were no upsets in the Top 5 last week and, the most visible losses were by Oregon and UCLA, as well as Ole Miss coming up short at home against Bama. TCU showed defense, or perhaps it was Texas demonstrating inept offense - regardless, the Horned Frogs remain undefeated.
Last week’s Top 5
1.Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Michigan
4. TCU, and
5. Tennessee
This weekend has some interesting games, but it’s mostly David vs Goliath. Georgia’s at Kentucky, Tennessee’s at South Carolina, TCU travels to Baylor, and out west USC makes the long drive to Pasadena to face UCLA, and Utah travels to Eugene to face the Ducks. Oh, Bama hosts Austin Peay - can’t forget about that one.
The CFP seems to be positioning two SEC teams in the Final Four. The B1G champ will be in, two of these three SEC teams - Georgia, Tennessee, or LSU (if they win the SEC CCG), and TCU if they are an undefeated Big 12 champ.
The matchups in two CCG’s are already set - Georgia will face LSU, and North Carolina will face Clemson. The other three P5 conferences are still to be finalized.
The B1G East second place team has to hope for some havoc, in the form of TCU losing, USC losing, and LSU defeating Georgia in the SEC CCG.
What are you hoping for, or, would like to see?
November 15th, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
Based on IL's failure and the unchanging narrative of UM's lack of SoS, I think the rankings don't mean much to UM's hopes. Only the field can impact it. We've got rooting interest on Saturdays, but not much on Tuesdays.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
SOS UPDATE:
With big wins this weekend I expect Vandy and BC to move into the top ten.
Look for Navy to probably crack the top 25 with a close loss to super power Notre Dame.
Also UCONN will probably be a bottom 5 team nationally with only 3 more wins than Texas A and M.
Resume builders around the country are doing well:
-Big win for Kent state 40-6 over Bowling Green posting a 4-6 record!
-Akron is currently on a 9 game losing streak but really improving!
-New Mexico is currently on a 7 game losing streak but they get their starting full back next week.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
It's not a "narrative" though. There are highly analytical ways of evaluating M's schedule and it's poor no matter how you look at it. The non-conference was very weak and the conference slate has been worse than expected thanks to a down Big Ten. These are simple facts. I'm just saying we aren't being victimized by some "narrative". It's just reality:
We're 82nd in ESPN SoS, well below anyone else in the top 6 (OSU is next at 60th). We're 71st in Sagarin and OSU is next at 46th.
The metrics will improve significantly in the final two games (they have the third most difficult remaining SoS per ESPN) but it won't be enough to be comparable with other top 6ish teams.
That said, we pass the eye test. And if other teams lose (USC, Tenn, LSU, TCU twice or once by a lot), Michigan could definitely get in at 11-1. LSU and USC will almost certainly lose again. And M really only needs to be ahead of one of TCU or Tennessee and I'm not sure the committee wouldn't favor Michigan if they lose close to OSU over Tennessee which was not competitive with UGA even with Michigan's weaker schedule. So I'm saying there's a chance.
Regardless, beat Ohio.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:13 PM ^
The weak schedules aren’t totally intentional. They are set, as you know, 5 or more years out. There’s absolutely no way to know if UCONN and Hawaii are going to be atrocious or Cinderellas. It’s weird to me to punish a team for random variation. Very few teams are scheduling P5 OOC. I would like to see better matchups early. Expanding the playoff would encourage more ballsy selections for sure.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
Also, even if you wanted to tailor your schedule to maximizing CFP chances, it's not unreasonable to schedule weaker non-conference opponents. One loss has far more of an impact on your chances than strength of schedule. Each loss is huge. Strength of schedule only comes up in marginal cases.
Ideally, you probably wouldn't want complete cupcakes if you could avoid it. But it's not the worst idea to err on the side of caution.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^
Very true bmon. And the committee (and most of the CFB media) somehow can't credit teams like Michigan who play 9 conference games and thus have "extra" P5 team already baked into their schedules, unlike the entirety of the SEC.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
I’m pretty sure he was implying that our non conference schedule was weak and that is under our control. Unfortunately the Big ten also is weak and we have no control over that. I don’t think he was implying we are responsible for the weak big ten.
None of this matters. Win out and we are in. Lose to IL or OSU and we are out. It’s very simple.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^
For one, I'm not suggesting Michigan should be "punished" for how they scheduled whether it was their fault or not. The committee has to pick the best 4 teams, that's it. So it is what it is. But given that, if you have two teams with the same record, there's a good argument to go with the one that beat the better teams, ie had the better strength of schedule.
Michigan won't have that argument over anyone. They'd have to hope the committee says, well they beat worse teams more convincingly so and that's enough for us. Maybe they will, but that's what you have to hope when your schedule is weak. Like I said, it could still end up that way if we're compared to Tennessee. If Michigan loses a close one in Columbus our loss would be more competitive, so that could be enough.
Very few teams are scheduling P5 OOC
This is absolutely false. Easily a majority (my guess is 75%) of P5 teams have other P5 teams scheduled in the non-conf. Just looking at the Big Ten, only Michigan, Maryland and Indiana didn't have another P5 team (and IU played at Cincinnati). That's 11 of 14 or 79% of Big Ten teams with another P5 on the schedule.
Again not that it should matter to the committee whether it's intentional, but in the case of Michigan it was absolutely avoidable. Michigan had UCLA on the schedule and canceled it just three years ago. It's not like they couldn't get anyone to play them. They had to pay for someone likely to be respectable not to play them.
One can argue that not risking a loss was worth it, but we definitely had an opportunity to play what was likely to be a significantly better schedule.
November 15th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
Did you really just say that no one could have predicted UCONN (and Hawaii) would not be a SOS boost?? UM dropped UCLA and added HI and East Carolina in 2019. Nobody was deluded into thinking that made their schedule more competitive.
in 2019, the bpone was rampant, and UM needed wins, so you get the 2022 schedule in its current form. In all fairness, the committee has been all over the place with SOS. At the time, it would have been more favorable to be undefeated with a poor SOS than a 1 loss team with a strong SOS. They literally make it up as they go.
November 15th, 2022 at 5:48 PM ^
Had nothing to do with bpone or wins. Everything to do with money. We didn't want to have to play at UCLA in 2023 because it would have meant only 6 home games. Warde stated as much. They want at least 7 home games a year for the $$.
November 15th, 2022 at 3:16 PM ^
SoS doesn’t matter. LSU will move to #4 so that after The Game, they can move to #2 in time for the SEC championship.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
Michigan will stay in the top 4, but drop to 4 because of the narrative that TCU has a defense now and UM lacks a passing game.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:38 AM ^
They probably would drop them to 4 to screw them over and match them up against Georgia again.
1st game, title game, I dont think it makes a difference since UGA will probably win it all again but at least Michigan will have a shot winning a playoff game matched up against TCU or UT.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
If Michigan gets into CFP, it will likely mean they beat OSU and won the B1G. If that's the case, they'll be #2 and avoid UGA in the first round.
If they're ranked #4 tonight, that's essentially meaningless.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
Yep, not even paying attention to the rankings tonight - don't care as it's all a popularity contest right now. Real simple - win on the 26th and we're in - lose and we're out
November 15th, 2022 at 10:59 AM ^
Not only that, but even if we didn't jump TCU somehow after beating OSU and winning the B1G, we'd still move up from 4 to 3 and avoid Georgia.
The frustrating thing to me is that I think they will work hard to avoid a Tennessee-Georgia rematch in the first round, and I think the way that most likely happens, outside of a surprising loss, is moving Tennessee to 3rd and TCU (or whoever fills in their spot if TCU loses) to 4th. As a result, we get Tennessee in the first round, rather than TCU, who I'd much rather play.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
Agreed, but you know UT and UGA wont play the first game. That would mean one of their SEC darlings would be gone right away. They cant be having that.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:44 AM ^
I don't know. I am hopeful that the committee would rank 11-1 Tennessee behind three 13-0 conference champions. To me, "undefeated conference champion" is a pretty bright line.
November 15th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^
It's not totally meaningless. There is still definitely a chance Michigan gets in at 11-1. But that likely requires the committee liking Michigan over a one loss TCU.
If the committee likes Michigan better when they both have zero losses that would seem to bode well for their chances if they both have one loss. And vice versa.
So remaining ahead of TCU tonight could be important. Agree that it has zero relevance to the committees desire (or not) to have Michigan play UGA again.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
FWIW I agree with your first point but disagree with your 2nd. TCU will move ahead of us tonight because of SOS where most have them in the top 10 and we currently sit in the 30's or worse, our passing game will have little to nothing to do with the decision.
I think we'll move back to 4th this week with a chance to move to 2nd with wins in our next two weeks. As I see it there is almost no realistic path to us making the final four with a loss at OSU given our weak OOC schedule this year.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
I doubt they drop us to 4th, but if they do, it's just for something to talk about. The top 10 all won except for Oregon, so the only real interest is how far do they move down. Like you said, if we beat OSU, we're #2.
Would they really want Tennessee in over UM at #4? Rematch Georgia vs. Tennessee, which they were completely dominated. While our non-conference schedule was weak, we have a 9-game conference schedule. Compare Ball State/Akron/UT Martin to Hawaii/UConn/CoSt.
UConn played Ball St close on the road, #114 v #120 to FPI
Hawaii = Akron
Colorado St > FCS UT Martin
Does going to OT against Pitt help their cause? Compared to our 9th conference game.
Also, if anyone wants to say "well Michigan was dominated by Georgia last year too", 1) that should be irrelevant and 2) then I think the response is "You want to compare 12-2 CFP team Michigan to 7-6 Tennessee from 2021?"
November 15th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
Here's how I see it playing out to answer your question.
1. Georgia
2. Winner of OSU/Michigan
3. Tennessee if they win out/TCU if they dont
4. TCU if they win out/USC if they dont
You are 100% right that they'll move heaven and earth to get two SEC teams in and keep them from facing each other in the semi's. They'll claim Tennessee's SOS is so amazing (after all they play in the SEC) that they deserve to vault TCU, even with the loss to Georgia
November 15th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
This assumes that USC wins out. At UCLA this weekend.
Lot of football left.
But man, this Illinois game is sure starting to feel a bit "trappy" to me.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:17 PM ^
Normally, I'd think that this game was "trappy", too (think about Minnesota in 1986 or Iowa in 2016) but it looks like Illinois has lost a bit of its mojo down the stretch (and possibly lost a starting RB?). I think that Michigan will take care of business this weekend.
November 15th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
It's not a trap if the team knows it's a trap and the team knows it's a trap.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
I don't really think it is an obvious "trap" game at this point, though. It is neither an obvious big game nor an obvious trap game. It is a different strange substance that I am not comfortable with.
November 15th, 2022 at 2:49 PM ^
I think it's okay to look at USC with a jaundiced eye, but if they make it through the next few weeks unscathed, @ UCLA (not much of a road game), vs. ND and against likely Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game, they absolutely deserve to be in, even over 11-1 Tennessee. It's only if Georgia loses to LSU in the SECCG that things could get spicy on that front.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
TCU is already ahead of Tennessee, I don't see how they could move Tennessee above them if TCU adds wins against Baylor, ISU, and B12 championship game. Tennessee has South Carolina and Vanderbilt remaining.
We'd need USC to lose to UCLA, ND, or Pac12 championship as well.
I think it also depends how we look against OSU in a theoretical loss. 1-score close game in the 4th, we're in. Multi-score game, probably out.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:17 AM ^
I really hope that is not the case. If TCU wins out and is 13-0 and the Big 12 champ, even with a meh Big 12, I don't see how they can plausibly place an 11-1 Tennessee that got hamblasted by Georgia above them just because they have two decent wins
November 15th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
1 loss OSU would be in as well in my opinion, a hypothetical loss to us wouldn’t drop them out
November 15th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Hilarious. They'd be out because they hate the BIG10 not because of who, Osu is.
November 15th, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
USC is not going to win out. But if USC and TCU win out, they'll both be ahead of Tennessee for the 3rd and 4th spots. Tennessee does not control it's own destiny as you suggest. They need USC to lose.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Would they really want Tennessee in over UM at #4? Rematch Georgia vs. Tennessee, which they were completely dominated. While our non-conference schedule was weak, we have a 9-game conference schedule. Compare Ball State/Akron/UT Martin to Hawaii/UConn/CoSt.
I agree with the other posters in that if Tennessee gets in, they'll be at #3. The committee will do the mental gymnastics to justify it if necessary (i.e. if TCU goes undefeated, somewhat similar to how they kept UGA ahead of Cinci last year instead of putting UGA at #4), but at the end of the day they don't want the first-round rematch.
And I think people here are focusing too much on our non-con schedule, to the exclusion of our conference slate.
Does going to OT against Pitt help their cause? Compared to our 9th conference game.
No, Tennessee's non-con game against Pitt isn't what's giving them the edge. It's the both real, and perhaps somewhat imagined, perception that they have much bigger wins than us or any of the other 1-loss teams in CFP contention. On the real side, they have a massive win over a surging, top-10 LSU team along with Bama, who maybe isn't quite top 10 but is still Bama and that's going to generate respect. We have a massive win over a probably top 10-15ish PSU, and then . . . Our next biggest win is MD? @ Iowa?
The somewhat imagined portion for Tennessee comes from the fact that they have wins over five teams that were ranked at the time of the game; in addition to Bama and LSU, Pitt, Florida and UK were also ranked. That's absolutely playing into the perception for Tennessee, probably somewhat undeservedly, since none of those three are still ranked. But they're still decent wins, which is where we're having trouble. Even if you call our and Tennessee's best win (PSU vs Bama or LSU) a wash, it'd be tough to say our next best win (MD or Iowa) would be any better than 4th or 5th for Tennessee. The B1G is dogshit this year (B1G 2, Medium 1 and Little 11), which, combined with a dogshit non-con, makes it tough to justify an at-large spot for us if we don't beat OSU...
November 15th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Here lies the problem. They beat Bama and a "surging" LSU team, who is "surging" because they beat Bama. This is such circular tautology it makes my head spin.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
To be fair, they're surging because after the beatdown against Tennessee, they beat a decent Florida team, crushed a good Ole Miss team, and beat Bama (and they had a solid win over a decent Miss St. team earlier in the year).
November 15th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^
Wait Florida is decent? Why?
November 15th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
To be fair, Tennessee's SOS is ranked 3rd and ours is 82nd
November 15th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
There is no way they can move Tennessee above undefeated TCU. They are already below them, and wins against South Carolina and Vandy aren't better than Baylor, ISU, B12 championship.
November 15th, 2022 at 11:47 AM ^
Oh, they absolutely can. In 2014, none other than TCU was #3 in the second to last CFP ranking. Despite beating ISU 55-3 in the regular season finale (no Big XII Championship game that year), TCU dropped to #6 in the final CFP poll.
Now, do I think they should? Absolutely not. I actually think they have a lot of solid wins notwithstanding the score or the way they won. But the committee would find a way to justify it, essentially saying that Tennessee has the much better resume while using whatever logic they've been using to denigrate TCU. I can pretty much guarantee it; I'd bet you an internet dollar (as Brian likes to say) that if Tenn and TCU are the last two teams in the CFP, Tenn will be #3 and TCU #4.
The real question for me is what would happen if it wasn't UGA and Tenn, but say M and OSU? Imagine that Tennessee loses to South Carolina, Georgia loses to Kentucky, and USC drops another game, while TCU and M/OSU win out (other than one team losing The Game). I.e. the M-OSU winner is #1, one-loss SEC champ UGA is #2, and with all other contenders sitting on at least two losses, undefeated TCU and the one-loss M-OSU loser are in line for the last two spots. I'm much less confident that the committee would put the M-OSU loser over undefeated TCU than I am that they would put Tennessee #3 (just like in 2006 it was unfathomable to have a rematch of OSU-M for the title, but in 2012, it was just fine to so the same for LSU-Bama).
November 15th, 2022 at 12:32 PM ^
The committee’s approach of a rematch in the finals > rematch in the semi’s is such flawed thinking. NFL divisional teams often play for a third time in the playoffs, but never in the fucking Super Bowl. That’s just lame.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^
100%!! Let them play once more and see which team will rep the SEC in the NCG!
November 15th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Guaranteed they want an 11-1 SEC team over an 11-1 B1G team. That will always and forever be the case.
Even if you added a win @UCLA, in that case it's that win plus the win over PSU. They have wins over Bama (they will always get a bigger bump because it's Bama) and the SEC west division winner LSU. They'd pick Tennessee first.
The SEC gets to be automatically crowned the best conference in football every year, regardless of if that's true or not (and this year it is probably true anyway).
November 15th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
It's about picking the best teams, not just wins/losses. How we'd lose to OSU in this case would matter. If Tennessee looks shakey against South Carolina or Vanderbilt, or Hooker gets injured, that could matter. Tennessee going to OT against Pitt should matter. If Bama somehow loses to Auburn or if LSU gets blown out in the SEC championship, that'll matter.
November 15th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
I agree holistically, but until proven otherwise I'm always assuming that the 11-1 SEC team gets in over the 11-1 Big Ten team. The SEC is the only conference so far to have two teams in the CFP at once, and is still viewed as the best conference overall. I just don't see any way you take Michigan over Tennessee, unless Tennessee actually loses to one of those teams.
The SEC is the only conference to have had a national championship game between two of its members, and its happened three damn times in an 10-year span, and one of those was before the CFP ever existed. Yet when it's #2 Michigan and #1 OSU in 2006, playing a historical game that went down to the wire, the opinion was "nobody wants to see a rematch". History is not on our side, my friend.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
At this point in the season, the rankings are a glorified commercial. I don’t really have expectations for advertisements.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
2 loss LSU getting in the playoff over a one loss Michigan/OSU (who's only loss would be to an undefeated team) is an absolute joke. That FSU loss is unforgiveable given the state of the ACC.
I am rooting for a TCU loss & a USC loss in the hopes that we can get a 2 SEC/2 B1G playoff.
November 15th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
The FSU loss is bad, but not a deal breaker in my mind. It was the first game of the season with a new head coach, etc.
What would bother me more about LSU getting in over Michigan (or any other 1-loss team) is that, despite beating Bama, they just have not taken care of the bad teams the way you would expect a playoff contender to do. A 3-point win over Arkansas, a 4-point win over Auburn. A 15-point win over Miss. St. may look ok, but that game was close until MSU imploded in the 4th and allowed LSU to run away with the game. And then getting absolutely thrashed by Tennessee at home...
Michigan had similar problems putting teams away last year (Nebraska, Rutgers), but I don't think they would've been in the CFP conversation if they lost to OSU, as a two loss team like LSU is right now.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
LSU only gets in if they win out, including vs. UGA in the CCG. If that happens they deserve to get in as conference champ, even with 2 losses. But if that happens it also seems very likely that 1 loss UGA would get in too, which based on their strength of schedule as well as the eye test seems reasonable to me.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:33 AM ^
Screw LSU getting in. If they win out, why should they get in the playoff with 2 losses ahead of the 1 loss Tennessee team who beat them 40-13 in Baton Rouge?
If LSU gets in, we might as well just call it the SEC playoff/National Championship as they are clearly the only conference that matters.
November 15th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
If LSU wins out, I wouldn't be surprised with a 3 SEC team playoff. Shouldn't be the case, but ESPN has been lubing their viewers up for this over the last month or so.