CFB Simulator - a little fun before the big game

Submitted by trueblue262 on December 30th, 2022 at 9:06 AM

Over the last few seasons I have found myself on this website quite a bit, just seeing how the numbers match up. I found it interesting what happens when you put Michigan & TCU in, no matter who the home team is, or whether the home field advantage box is checked or not. It shows TCU as the favorite in most cases, but out of 10 simulations, I came out with Michigan winning 7 of them. 

Anyway, thought it would be fun to see what results everybody gets. It will help pass time for this very long day. Go Blue Always

https://www.ncaagamesim.com/default.asp

 

Seth

December 30th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^

It's a cool site but they need to find a way to take out garbage time. Try running any Michigan sim and you'll see a ton of Isaiah Gash, passes to Leon Franklin, etc.

What they do is randomize events from this year's play-by-play by situation, removing events with injured players and then raising the instances of his backups. If you remove all of Michigan's Blake Corum events however, you end up with a smattering of Donovan Edwards runs and then things like "TEAM run for loss of 2" representing a significant percentage of plays.

djmagic

December 30th, 2022 at 3:27 PM ^

what does "nonsense that doesn't emulate anything that would happen on the field" remind you of?     I'm gonna guess it reminds you of the video of the TCU bloggers that Brian posted, where they say Michigan's offense isn't likely to mess with linebackers.

bronxblue

December 30th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^

Yeah, I looked at the play-by-play and they had a lot of random guys getting a bunch of plays in this game for Michigan.  Like, Darrius Clemons has the longest completion of the day and both Cade McNamara and Erick All showed up multiple times.  And despite being down 20 entering the 4th quarter Michigan ran the ball with Leon Franklin 2 straight times before giving it to CJ Stokes.

So yeah, it's a bit of a mixed bag.  I wrote something similar while in grad school and they're really tough to get right; I won't rag on them.  But like a lot of things the algorithm is only as good as the data you feed it and this one has some kinks to work out.

Leroys Horde

December 30th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^

I tried one where Michigan lost 38-31 and we had runs from JJ, Davis Warren, Orji, and somehow Cade. Apparently Harbaugh pulled out the Wishbone offense with all QBs at once 

Son of THE PAR…

December 30th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^

I had a drive where Alex Orji, Henry Donahue (I had to look up who that was), Sam Gash and Stokes carried the ball once each. It was the third drive of the game. 
 

juat like I am sure that the coaches drew up their game plan. 

Amazinblu

December 30th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^

So, this simulator picked the Buckeyes to destroy Michigan.  And, this same simulator picks TCU to defeat Michigan.

I like this simulator… 

Go Blue!

umfan83

December 30th, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^

What I saw wrong on my sim:

-CJ Stokes started the game over Donovan Edwards

-Michigan scored their first TD on an 8 yard run by Alex Orji

-Michigan punted on 4th and 2 from the TCU 39

-Jake Moody missed a 29 yard FGA

-Michigan punted from 4th and 1 from the TCU 43 in a tie game in the 3rd quarter.

-Max Bredeson had more catches and TDs in the game than he had the rest of the year combined

-Stokes had 10 carries vs Edwards 11 in the game, Gash had 4, JJ had 8

But Michigan won 31-27 so all good!