Can Michigan/Harbaugh Replicate LSU's Success?

Submitted by UNCWolverine on January 2nd, 2020 at 11:17 AM

I can't help but see several parallels between Michigan and LSU over the last few years.

While LSU had some major success under Miles (NCs in 2003 & 2007 and runner-up in 2011) they have since had an eerily similar run as Michigan has during Harbaugh's tenure:

LSU 2012 - 2018 average record: 9.1 wins and 3.6 losses.

Michigan 2015 - 2019: 9.4 wins and 3.4 losses.

From an intangibles standpoint there are also quite a few similarities. One of my best friends moved to Louisiana about ten years ago and has since become quite engrained in the LSU athletic community. Accordingly I have probably been to just as many LSU football games over the past decade as Michigan games, both home and away, averaging about 2 per year. And since I live in Los Angeles I have generally only selected to attend the big matchups for both schools. So I have unfortunately witnessed several Alabama and OSU losses in person respectively.

Prior to 2019 LSU had lost to Alabama 8 times in a row. Alabama was their roadblock to the SEC championship game every season. Sound familiar?

Pretty amazing what an outstanding quarterback can do for a program that’s just not been able to defeat their divisional rival. Here’s to hoping that Jim and company can finally find/develop the most important position on the field to take us to the next level, ala LSU.

 

KTisClutch

January 2nd, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^

Probably not because LSU has an insane talent pipeline that Michigan will never have. Also SEC and stuff. The institution of the University of Michigan needs to undergo changes if Michigan wants to ever win a National Title.

Warrior-poet

January 2nd, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^

Players have to put the time in on their own in the summer. It is well documented that SP hit the links instead of the film room. This has more to do w/ his performance than coaching. 
 

on the other hand, the coaches should always take the approach that if the incumbent isn’t pulling his weight, then he will sit if he doesn’t perform. 

JPC

January 2nd, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^

Second year Speight was much worse than first year Speight. Amazingly, or not, second year Shea was much worse than first year Shea. 

It could be pure coincidence, but time in this program appears to be bad for a QB's development. Either DMC is a stud, or Harbaugh needs to move it - if only for perception's sake, since no good offensive skill player is going to come here when every QB is a bust. 

BlueMan80

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^

Second year Speight had what appeared to be a lingering shoulder issue from the previous season's Iowa game.  Remember, Speight had a really bad collarbone break that required a rebuild and rehab that extended his high school years.  Once he got clobbered at Purdue, he was never the same which was sad.  So, if you want to praise or curse Harbaugh's handling of Speight, I'd focus on this first year up to the Iowa game.  

JPC

January 2nd, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^

I don't think Speight's shoulder caused him not to know how to read a zone against Florida, after starting for an entire season but OK. What's the excuse for John getting worse after starting to get all the first team reps?

A lack of season to season development of the QBs has been a consistent theme for Harbaugh at Michigan. It could be all bad luck or it could be a problem. It's looking like a problem but I hope DMC bucks the trend and shows up ready to go as starter. 

stephenrjking

January 2nd, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^

Rudock had a good half season. 

Speight regressed badly in 2017; before he was injured, he had the yips, and was just completely ignoring wide-open receivers and refusing to throw the ball in the end zone. John O'Korn got worse the more he played, too. Peters started the year unready, with word from inside the camp suggesting that he was given a cram course midseason in 2017 to get him ready. Then he played a bones-simple gameplan and was barely utilized at all against teams like Minnesota and Maryland. People act like he was tearing it up, but he finished 2017 with a 53% completion percentage, 4 tds, and 2 ints total. No Michigan QB reached 55% in 2017. 

Shea threw for more yards this year, but regressed significantly in completion percentage (from 64% to 56%, 8,0 yards/attempt both years) and in willingness to run (includes sack yardage, but last year he ran for 273 yards; this year, only 50). 

Harbaugh simply hasn't demonstrated that he is capable of coaching these players up. And the guys he has on the roster now are the guys he wanted. In 2018 and 2019, every QB on the roster was a guy that Harbaugh wanted, and the results speak for themselves. 

Mich1993

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^

I think people are missing a big piece of the QB problem.  Different offensive systems year after year.  It's difficult to truly master an offense if everyone is learning a new system.  This combined with not having had a QB with that "it" factor that just makes the right decisions play after play has capped our QB play at mediocre vs. elite.  

I think Ruddock might have gotten there with another year or two, but Speight/Peters/Okorn were just ok players who didn't have a full feel for the offense.  Patterson was inconsistent.  Maybe he could have gotten there with consecutive years running the same offense.  I do think Patterson could have done very well on Alabama or OSU where mostly what he needs to do is throw to open 5* WRs all the time.

Next year, we'll find out if McCaffrey or Milton have the "it" factor.  

I do think we've reached the point where we will win just about all of our games and an elite QB will be enough to allow us to compete even against OSU.  Keep Gattis/Gattis' system around for a few years, keep building talent and depth across the roster and do our best to be patient.

Harbaugh/Brown have brought us from bad to Top 15 so far.  I'd predict consistently Top 10 going forward with an elite QB pushing us towards the Top 5.   

WestQuad

January 2nd, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^

So DPJ, Nico and Black are super highly rated receivers and should have been making the crazy catches to bail out SP.  Instead they've all had the drops.   Don't know if drops are caused by the QB, the WR or both, but on paper we should be performing much better.   Which of course is why everyone is searching for a change of some sort.  

I think DMC or Milton will be great next year in the second year of Gattis.  We looked good in the first half against bama.  Figure out how to make some adjustments and we're all set.

DonAZ

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^

That's a disheartening take on things, but given you're one of the more sensible commenters, it's worth stopping and considering this.  I tend to agree with your view, and I think it's time Harbaugh go hands-off with respect to coaching the QBs.  I don't know if Ben McDaniels is the guy, or if someone else should be the guy.  But based on your take, it seems Harbaugh is not the guy.

I've long wondered whether Jim Harbaugh is one of those ex-player types that was good at the craft, but can't explain it or coach it.  Great players do not necessarily make great coaches.  (And here I'm referring to the position coach role, and not the head coach role.)  Very often it's the marginal player that becomes the great coach.  Not sure why, but it seems to be true.

I also wonder if maybe Harbaugh notion of quarterbacking is still too rooted in his NFL days as a player.  The college game has changed quite a bit from the 1990s NFL, and even the NFL is changing from when Harbaugh was coaching the 49ers.  I'm not saying Harbaugh is incapable of knowing how the contemporary game is played, but I do wonder whether he's yet willing to "let go" of what he used to think was the way it's done.

Squad16

January 2nd, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^

If Harbaugh can't be hands on with QB or offensive playcalling (Harbaugh apologists often cite giving Gattis even more control as a way to improve)........then what is the point of him being there at all?

Overall, the team is not mentally tough or motivated, so no help from him there as an HC. Horrible time management in game. Known to be difficult to work for and is increasingly easy to negatively recruit against given his high expectations and mediocre results. Not impressive in the media or in terms of public image. If your response to "how do we make things better" is to remove the coach from his coaching duties...eventually you have to remove the coach from his coaching duties

Eng1980

January 2nd, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^

I am not sure if Speight was ever any good.  His decline came after Grant Newsome retired with injury.  Also, I think his early success may have come with better protection and clever play calling.  Then the opponents had film, the o-line was injured, and then Speight was injured.

Between OC changes, O-line injuries, and small sample sizes with biases around good opponents and bad oppenents I don't think I can conclude anything about Harbaugh's offensive ability other than an inability to overcome all obstacles.

O'Korn was a sensation in a weak league until they had film on him.  Peters underthrows to this day with regularity.  

As for me, I am looking for a season with a few well executed 2 minute drills, each to end the first half.

Couage

Tuebor

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^

Considering Rudock showed up in August I think his improvement is likley attributable to his full understanding of the playbook and chemistry with the WR after 3 months in the program.

 

And speight seemed to regress in 2017 after a good 2016.

 

I hate to say it but if McCaffrey or Milton were the elite QB we are looking for they would have seen the field over Patterson.

stephenrjking

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^

I basically agree. They were not clearly better options.

I will, however, say that McCaffrey was given the keys in the second half of Wisconsin and had a chance to win the job, but he got concussed so badly that he actually had to leave town entirely. By the time he was back up to speed, Shea and the offense had improved, and there was no longer any reason to yank the QB. 

I don't think DCaf would have been an upgrade over Patterson this year, but at the key moment where he could have stepped up, he got hurt, so there is some missing data. 

AlbanyBlue

January 2nd, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^

Your first sentence is correct. What you wrote is (mostly) BS. Rudock improved, but I contend it's only because he *wasn't* in the program long. He was smart enough to take what worked for him and IGNORE some of the "development".

Speight - did not improve much. Some improvement, at least until Iowa.

O'Korn - did not improve.

Peters - did not improve. Arguably, he played better at Illinois, because here, he got to the point where he couldn't complete simple passes with regularity.

Shea - reasonable first year (not in program long) and either regressed or stayed the same this year.

DMc - Apparently, not enough improvement to unseat a stagnant Shea. Maybe he would have if not injured against UW.

Milton - Ask again later.

Sure, Luck was great. But he was arguably a generational talent that didn't need much coaching. And yes, Jim developed some guys in the NFL. But again, these players are smart / talented enough to take what they need and ignore some of the other stuff.

It's the "other stuff" that is the issue. And I think the other stuff is an emphasis on extreme risk-aversion and an inability to teach modern QB concepts.

I'm telling ya, something is very wrong in our QB room, and the buck stops with Harbaugh. Now, it may be McDaniels and all the other QB coaches, but the one constant is Jim.

QB whisperer my ass. 

 

ldevon1

January 2nd, 2020 at 11:49 AM ^

This is true for most of the top 5 teams. He was special this year, and without a doubt the best QB in college. I said this in another thread, and I know we always say this but if the QB play is just a little better and just a little more clutch, the schedule and returning talent (Ambry is the key) we can finally get over the hump. Wisconsin at home without Taylor. Penn St at home without Hamler. OSU showed how vulnerable they are without Dobbins, Wade, and Okudah leaving will be hard to replace. Minnesota loses WR Johnson and RB Smith, but they will be tough at home. MSU is not the same Dantini teams of the last 10 yrs, so the schedule sets up for us regardless of the WR we might lose.

funkywolve

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^

To me the biggest question mark next year is the oline.  UM loses at least 3 starters, possibly 4 depending on what Ruiz decides.  Two of the starters were first team all Big Ten performers in Runyan and Bredeson.  Onwenu was a solid multi year starter.  Unfortunately, I don't think UM is at the point where they can lose that talent, plug in new starters and not expect some kind of drop off.  Warinner is a darn good coach but I'm guessing we're going to see some struggles early next year with the oline, and for the most part next year UM's toughest games are in the first half of the season.

buckeyejonross

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^

I think OSU will have a completely different offense in 2020 to both account for losing Dobbins, but more importantly, to take advantage of Fields' growth as a passer and the WR talent at hand next year.

OSU's base run game in 2019 was a wide zone play that allowed Dobbins to stretch the play out east/west before either deciding to follow the play-side or picking the cutback lane. Completely different base run play than Meyer used. The running offense was designed to suit Dobbins due to his strengths at moving laterally before exploding forward. Having Teague operate in this run game is a disservice to the way Teague runs. It's not like he can just be plugged in and be as effective as Dobbins. Teague is good at completely different things. I think you'll see OSU completely change its base run play next year to accommodate Teague's north/south style.

More importantly though, you'll see OSU throw more. OSU was like a 60% run based team this year. I wouldn't be shocked to see it switch completely to 60% pass next year.

Defense, yea. it will be hard to replace Okudah. Wade hasn't decided on the NFL yet, but even if he returns, 3/4 DBs will be brand new. However, depending on what the offense does, OSU won't have to have the No. 1 S&P+ defense again. Even if they're 80% as good, that's a top 10 D. That's good enough.

trustBlue

January 2nd, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^

Hard to imagine what that would even look like. Has OSU ever been 60% pass other than last year with Dwayne Haskins? Even then, OSU spent a lot of the year struggling to figure out how to build a pass-first offense around Dwayne's skillset. 

Fields is a good enough passer, but not on Haskins level so I'm not sure he gives you enough to build your offense around his arm, when the Meyer/Day offense seems to clearly favor a spread-to-run offense.

buckeyejonross

January 2nd, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^

Well, for one, I think Fields is better than Haskins. As a passer. I think his arm strength and ball placement are just as good, if not better. Same with his decision making. His pocket elusiveness. His strength. Everything, really. If Fields played as many 4th quarters as Haskins had to, he would have surpassed all his stats. In year 1 of a brand new offense at a brand new school. Haskins was in the program for 3 years before his breakout, and Fields had been there for 3 minutes.

This is not meant to diminish Haskins, but Fields is going to be the better college QB, and he'll be the better pro QB. That's a high bar to clear, because Haskins was great.

To your other point, I don't think it will be hard to imagine at all. I mean, they just did it with Haskins and set a bunch of program records. I think Day has shown the ability to adapt his scheme to his personnel and get the best out of everyone. The Day offense is very different than the Meyer one. The running concepts, the passing concepts, all very different. Hell, OSU ran a not insignificant amount of plays from under center this year with Fields. I'd bet Day wanted to do that with Haskins too, and Meyer overruled it. I think if Day had his way, that would have helped alleviate some of the issues OSU had in the run game with Haskins.

I do not expect an offensive drop off next year unless Fields is injured. In fact, I think the offense will be better. The QB will be better. The WRs will be much better, and while Dobbins was ridiculous, whoever OSU decides to go with at RB in 2020 will have a run game tailored to their strengths. How was OSU gonna replace Hyde? How was OSU gonna replace 'Zeke? How is OSU gonna replace Dobbins? That question keeps getting answered. Someone will do it. 

Denard In Space

January 2nd, 2020 at 6:35 PM ^

although i don't agree with buckeyejonross' policy of eating babies, he's dead on here re: haskins / fields. to me, it's not even debatable that fields is the better qb in every way, including passing. he was utilized perfectly as well. the board was ready to be down on fields as some sort of football-stupid terrelle pryor imitation because of his spring game performance (lol), and i cautioned that this was not going to be the case; he's one of the highest rated quarterback / overall prospects in the modern recruiting era.  only vince young & trevor lawrence were more highly rated. 

barring injury, fields has every tool he needs to be the best QB in Ohio Sports University history, right now. 

stephenrjking

January 2nd, 2020 at 6:52 PM ^

Fields appears more talented than Haskins, to me (and Haskins is talented!). But there is one key area in which Fields needs to develop: hitting the second and third reads quickly and in rhythm. 

Fields tends to lock on to his primary read (he seems fine at pre-snap reads). When that isn't open, though, he doesn't always move to the second and third reads in a timely manner, which results in passes getting there late... or, more frequently, in Fields improvising. Fields is very effective when he improvises, so it's not like it's a devastating blow, but it does mean that open receivers sometimes never get seen. And it did seem to contribute to Olave's decision to break off his route at the moment Fields released the final pass last week.

Oh well. Not like Michigan will have anyone that good. :(

BluBallz

January 2nd, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^

I agree.  JH is not one to call out a player publicly but he had to be seething with the number of errant throws from his QB.  Accuracy level was waaaaayyyyy off.  Here's hoping that one of our guys will have that blend of arm strength, vision and accuracy next fall.  We can always hope because hope springs eternal, right?

b618

January 3rd, 2020 at 2:03 AM ^

It is very rare for a QB to be at 80% completion rate for a season.

Only a handful of guys each year go above 70%.  In 2019, it was Burrow (LSU, 78%), Huntley (Utah, 73%), Slovis (USC, 72%), Gordon (Washington State, 72%), and Tua (Alabama, 71%).

65-70% is the realm of Lawrence, Fields, and Justin Herbert.

 

stephenrjking

January 2nd, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^

That was kind of the problem at LSU, too. All that offensive talent, wasted every year. 

If Les Miles was still the coach, I have no doubt that they would have wasted Burrow, too. He probably never becomes Joe Burrow there. 

It's actually rather astonishing that Ed Orgeron was able to harness Burrow, but Orgeron got the right people in place and empowered them to coach the offense, and now there's a Heisman and a national title game. 

I don't have much more confidence in Harbaugh to produce great quarterbacking than Les Miles. When people say "hopefully Dylan or Joe Milton will be the guy next year," it sounds exactly like what we've said every year. "Hopefully Shea takes the next step." "Hopefully Shea is the guy now that he's transferred in." "Hopefully Speight takes the next step." "Hopefully O'Korn is the guy now that he's eligible to play."

I want DCaf to work out, too. But I no longer have any confidence in his QB coach. 

Stringer Bell

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^

Exactly right, but I also think the supporting cast isn't nearly as good as LSU's.  LSU's receivers are able to get separation and catch everything.  Our receivers are very overrated IMO with frequent drops and an inability to separate from defenders.

My hope for the QB position going forward is that Gattis' system seems fairly QB friendly, so hopefully McCaffery or Milton can excel in it with a full year in the system.

outsidethebox

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:56 PM ^

There is too much false narrative here..."frequent drops" is a serous red herring. Alabama's all world receivers dropped as many or nearly as many as Michigan did. Michigan has/had many open receivers where a very average throw is a completion-and some absolutely uncontested, wide open receivers-for TDs no less. Far too many of these opportunities are either not targeted or wildly over-thrown. Yesterday the Michigan players demonstrated that they have enough talent to beat Alabama...so why didn't they??? My life experience says that a major factor here involves coaching...I have encountered this face to face far too many times to not believe this to continue to be true. Talent certainly matters a great deal but the coaching factor is huge. 

I have been very patient and generous with Coach Harbaugh and continue to be a strong supporter of his off-field programs for this team. But OMG!!! 

UMVAFAN

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:55 PM ^

I think DCaf will work out if he stays healthy. He has better athleticism than Shea to take full advantage of the Gattis offense. I think he'll be fine throwing the ball from an arm strength perspective, which has been the biggest question mark people have. He's a competitor and with his pedigree, he's been around high level football his entire life and understands the time and effort that must go into his preparation in practice and in the film room. He has the intangibles, but can he stay healthy. He cannot dive for first downs anymore. Someone needs to teach him to slide but I don't know if that's in his nature. I do like Milton's upside, too.

Denard In Space

January 2nd, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^

i still support harbaugh, but there are salient problems with our coach's communication among other coaches, referees, and players. as space coyote noted on twitter yesterday, officials just outright decided to not even consider targeting on ronnie bell yesterday, even though there were two clear instances of it that were reviewable. i don't think this turns games, but i do think it is clear that officials don't give the same benefit of the doubt to michigan players as they do other teams. you see the refs literally slapping buckeye asses and laughing with the players -- never with michigan. it's not the reason we lose, it just makes it more embarrassing. 

with coaches: harbaugh was in conflict with gattis at the end of the half regarding the 58 yard punt; there was a shot of gattis kind of yelling at jim, looking like he was saying something to the effect of 'we could have run another play and taken a time out' (paraphrasing cuz i can't actually read lips). looked like harbaugh didn't respond and ignored gattis' feedback. zooming out to other situations, i look at greg mattison leaving for OSU. here is a decorated defensive coordinator who has played for championships at college and in the pros, and he is passed up as D-coordinator in favor of Don Brown. i'm not saying that was a bad idea, but something clearly wasn't functional with his departure. 

harbaugh is also known to not do halftime speeches, also, and it's no surprise that we come out of the locker room flat. first plays / opening drives have not been great for us what with all the fumbles and 85 yard touchdowns at whatnot. here's an article that substantiates what i'm saying, for folks:
https://footballscoop.com/archive-news/jim-harbaugh-motivational-speeches-are-overrated/

contrast that with da coach O, who punches himself in the face and shotguns redbull cans to motivate his players, cedes control of the units to expert coaches like aranda and brady, and focuses on recruiting, organization, motivation, and image-making. jim says hilarious stuff if you're looking to make memes, but does this really resonate with kids who are not trying to fuck around and just take the shortest path to becoming a professional athlete? i kind of doubt it. 

all that to say i don't think we're getting rid of jim harbaugh as a coach; i do hope he continues to change and adapt. it seems he took a good first step this year with gattis on offense, but needs to be more the CEO if he's gonna make it work; unfortunately, i don't think jim can do that, and we might have to wait a couple years to see how NIL affects the recruiting landscape. 

jsquigg

January 2nd, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^

You could be right, but your logic is flawed. The offense has been nowhere near Les Miles bad with Harbaugh, and I think Gattis is the right guy so the "what ifs" have legitimacy. I would be more upset if these were the same coaches since Harbaugh started, but they're not. I think the offense takes at least a step forward next year if McCaffery and Milton put the work in that they are rumored to be putting in.  

UMVAFAN

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^

How did Burrow get so good? He was an afterthought at OSU and transferred out because he couldn't beat out Haskins. He was a three star on Rivals, four star on 24/7, and looked average at best before this season. If he wasn't from Ohio, he probably would have gone to Iowa State out of high school. Is it him or the system at LSU? LSU might become the new Oklahoma offensively and with transfer QBs (D'Eriq King will probably end up at LSU), but since they're great defensively, they'll win championships. Here's to hoping Gattis keeps ascending. Outside of four games - 2018 OSU, 2019 Florida, 2019 Wisconsin and 2020 OSU, Don Brown is an elite defensive coordinator. If he's paired with an offense that can put up 35+ points per game, Michigan will win 11+ games per year and win it's fair share against OSU.

stephenrjking

January 2nd, 2020 at 2:09 PM ^

Two QBs from 2018:

Player A: 210-325, 64.6%, 2600 yds, 8.0 y/a, 22 TD, 7 INT
Player B: 219-379, 57.8%, 2894 yds, 7.6 y/a, 16 TD, 5 INT

Pretty similar, right? If I had to choose, I probably pick Player A, right?

Player A is Shea Patterson. Player B is... Joe Burrow.

I think people need to dial back on the direct Burrow comparisons. LSU's offense was fantastic, with a great system paired with great athletes.

But Burrow's emergence from mid-range QB to Heisman, #1 overall draft pick, and one of the great offensive seasons of all time is among the more amazing individual transformations in the history of football. It's one thing for a guy to finally get a chance to use their talents (Barry Sanders in 1988, for example). It's another for a guy whom we all basically knew, who was clearly outclassed at OSU by Haskins, who started for a year at LSU and didn't blow anyone away, to transform in his final year into a miracle-working dynamo that won the Heisman going away and eviscerated the best defenses in the country. 

The only real lesson is, if your QB mutates from an average starter into one of the best of all time, your team will do pretty well. Yeah, LSU's offensive system is good, and it has great athletes, but a level-up of this caliber is just not going to happen very often. 

Chadillac Grillz

January 2nd, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^

I think sticking burrow in there and winning more games is true but I also think it is the product of Coach orgeron allowing coach ensminger and Coach Brady to do what they do... I'm not sure the Jim harbaugh and Josh gattis running the show the way they run it with their offense their philosophy and their approach and particularly what I feel is Jim harbaugh's micromanagement... Basically I think it would hamstring Joe burrow and he would not throw for 55 touchdowns if he had suited up with Michigan this year and a lot of that goes to coaching it's my opinion I don't have proof I don't need proof it's just an educated opinion based on watching the games! If we had Joe burrow with our coaching staff we would have still lost to Ohio State and maybe another game in the regular season!