Brady Hoke's Contract Extension
There has been a lot of talk about expectations for 2014. I'd like to take a look at it from the perspective of Coach Hoke's contract.
It runs through 2016, which means we're at something of a crossroads at the end of this season. He'll have just two years left, and needless to say recruiting would be undermined if we went into 2015 with no extension.
The question becomes, what does he have to do to in 2014 to earn an extension, and how long might it be.
In light of the fact he's restored respectability to our program, been a class act doing things the right way, made us competitve with our rivals, and recruited at an elite level, I'm comfortable a winning season would be enough. He'll be right at the cusp of having a roster that's fully his and a favorable schedule in 2015. I don't think we should go into that season with only two years to run.
It's about that time of the offseason, eh?
Or the new LSU when Les Miles shows up...I'm sure he'd love to retire Urban again.
It is funny you mention ND because right now I think Hoke is somewhere between a Charlie Weiss and a Bo Pelini. Probably pretty good at certain things, but not elite in anything. ND OSU and UM will always recruit at a certain level ... and it takes a serious committment to have teams below .500 at these 3 schools with all the natural talent of their players. The type of coaching a Fickell or Davie or Willingham can bring. Nebraska is generally 1 step below those 3 in recruiting (classes in the 20s and 30s rather than 5-20).
Take out that one really bad year of Weiss where the bottom fell out and ND was:
- 9-3
- 10-3
- 7-6
- 6-6
I think Hoke is on a very similar flight plan as this OL doesnt seem like the type to get us past 8 wins. But with the talent a ND OSU and UM gets its actually very difficult to be truly bad. It happens every so often - when a new coach comes in and tries to change systems or the bottom falls out with key injuries to a QB on a thin team or whatnot but generally its hard to do.
So average to decent coaches at these 3 schools should always be able to wrangle together 8 or 9 win seasons. 8 wins doesnt mean a thing nowadays - every team schedules 2-3 patsies in non conf and has 1-2 cellar dwellers in your conference so by definition you have 4 games in pocket every year as wins if you are Nebraska, OSU, ND, UM. So all 8/9 wins means is you went .500 against any team with a heartbeat on your schedule. This is what Bo Pelini is doing; remarkably every year he has been at Nebraska they have 4 losses...6 years in a row. So he is a solid coach I am sure...but there is nothing elite about Bo Pelini. He will take top 25 talent and make it a top 25 team - which is probably what about 40 other coaches can do. This is what I feel we have in Hoke until I see evidence to the contrary.
My glass half full approach to this is 2012 when we lost to #1, #2, and #3 and Nebraska after our QB went out and disaster struck in the 2nd half for 4 of our losses and had a close game vs SC. My glass half empty approach is 2013. My larger worry is 2015 is going to be ready set for ANY coach to do well and we will have a 9-4 type season with a home schedule set up for a 11-2, 12-1 type year with playoff implications by the time we hit OSU. But we'll do 9-4 and nowadays at UM that is "good enough". And we'll be in the perpetual 3 or 4 loss area we were when we started this whole mess in the early to mid 00s. That K State game really just hurt my view - Synder is an excellent coach but the 2 teams had very equal talent - both mediocre squads but K State looked dominant versus us. How does that happen - it's not just chemistry. Well we will have a lot more data in 8 months one way or the other.
Anyhow...Beilein.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:09 PM ^
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:24 PM ^
TL;DR version (CAVEMAN REMIX!!)
AAHHHH FOOTBALL HOKE!
PELINI! WEISS!?? NO? YES?
2012 OK! 2013 YUCKY!
2014 OHH NOO 2013 REDUX! 2015 GOOOD! BUT HOW GOOD???
BEILEIN YESSSSS!!!
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
Thank you. Was that so hard?
Are you seriously calling someone out for polluting the board with too many of their subjective thoughts?
GLASS. HOUSE. YOU LIVE IN ONE.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^
no comment
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^
Bo Pelini was an elite defensive coordinator at LSU.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^
Well his defenses have sucked pretty damn hard at Nebraska. At least Muschamps defenses have been good. If he could find an offense Florida would be great.
Do you really think Notre Dame's problem is that they didn't give Charlie Weis or Bob Davie a 6th year at the helm?
That Davie/Willingham thing worked out great.
Anyway, I think they "powers that be" would finally have to pay the money/swallow the pride/hide the wives and pick up Les Miles or trade for Harbaugh (Michigan could offer the York family the AD...)
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:13 PM ^
Davie got five years. He had never been a head coach and the team he built went 5-6 in year five. Maybe Willingham got a raw deal, but his second full recruiting class featured two 4-star recruits and six 2-star recruits among the 16 guys he and his recruiting coordinator (none other than Greg Mattison) brought to South Bend. That's why he didn't get the benefit of the doubt and it is part of the reason the program cratered in Weis's third year (along with a poor transition class in 2005 and a highly rated Weis class that ended up producing very little on-field talent).
When people say ''If we fire Hoke we'll become Notre Dame!'' I just look at them like what the fuck are you thinking? You think if Notre Dame gave Bob Davie, Tyrone Willingham, or Charlie Weiss more time they would have gotten better?
You become Notre Dame by hiring shitty coaches multiple times which if this year doesn't go well we will have done.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:08 PM ^
Exactly. You guys are square in the Willingham era right now. Carr being Holtz, bring in Rod as Davie. Nevermind O'Leary. Weis had all the offense he needed. His never went after defense which is what killed him.
However, welcome to our world. For some its a shock to you, I know I know. You'll get over it. At some point you will find the right coach. Its not Hoke. The right coach isn't the head coach and 2 big salary co-ordinators (although you must pay them).
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:30 PM ^
This is my worry. I want Hoke to succeed because unless Harbaugh is next (which I find a 10% chance of ever happening) potentially we are in ND remix until we find the right next guy and rinse, wash, repeat every 5 years sucks.
Or if we want go to basketball maybe we are in the Amaker era. We'll see soon enough.
April 24th, 2014 at 12:55 AM ^
because you see little chance to land Harbaugh? Interesting, I would have thought people would want Hoke to succeed because his success inherently means team and program success and stability. You do read like you want Hoke, and the team, to fail if it looks like a "name" coach becomes available. And that, that's pathetic.
Nope that is not what I wrote - you are reading what you want to read. I want Hoke to succeed so we are not stuck in a coaching carousal for the next however many years. If he does not succeed.... which again I want him to... unless Harbaugh is next ....we could be facing a a ND situation. It is just another unknown after another if Hoke goes.
You did this to me in another thread. Stop putting words into others peoples mouths would ya! Either you're intentionally manipulating what a post says to give you ammunition to pick a fight or you simply have terrible reading comprehension. I'm not sure which it is but just give it a rest.
That high, huh?
For the job or won't throw a fit that he is not a Michigan man, then we may as well keep Hoke. Don't want to destroy the program by firing one average coach and hiring another average coach. If Hoke does not work out then the next coach better be one of the best coaches in the country and the AD is going to have to pay through the nose for him. Otherwise, lets just keep Hoke for the long run and be happy with multiple 4 to 5 loss season and be happy for the occasional times we might win 9 or 10 games and win the B1G. I could see Michigan under Hoke becoming more like WI.
Carr was nowhere near Holtz in terms of success, acumen and reputation.
was no where near Holtz when it comes to being a cheat and breaking ncaa rules either.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:17 PM ^
A lot of Michigan fans may soon come to the realization that we hired one really good coach and fired him before he had a chance, then responded by hiring a mediocre coach and giving him a potentially infinite rope. If we don't have a better record than Arizona in 2014 (for what would be a third year in a row), the hindsight gets a lot clearer.
You know, sort of a worst of all possible worlds scenario.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:38 PM ^
Question for you Purple. What did you see in last year's Arizona that looked different than RR's UM?
I saw a team that went 4-5 in conf after a decent non conf start. I saw a team that had 3 of those wins against the bottom 3 teams in the conf. But gave hope to the fans with the one win versus Oregon. And lost to anyone in the middle or top of the Pac 12 outside Oregon which had just lost its chance at a NC by stumbling vs Stanford 2 weeks earlier, and you know how psychology works - for that team it was NC or bust in their minds.
His AZ team looks identical to his UM team - beat one high profile team (i.e. ND some years), put up flashy #s on offense versus bad to average competition, get punched in the mouth against almost any real competition.
Specific to UM, the 2010 class and 2011 class (all of 2010 and 70%? of 2011) was on RR. He'd have the same crater in the OL today as Hoke has. And same lack of WRs, RBs, etc. In 2010 bhe recruited 5 WRs and 1 OL. All but Dileo were non factors or transferred. How would that have changed? Just like Hoke's 2012 class is the bedrock of 2015-2016, RR's 2010 disaster is the bedrock of the current team. 2011 I guess you can chalk up to transition but I just don't see it with RR and count me as one who after we got shot down by options #1 and #2 was thrilled with the RR selection - thought it was a coup at the time. Didn't work here, and it's the same result in AZ from what I can tell.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^
I like you alum96.
I really don't think Rich Rod will ever have Arizona as a consistent 10 win team. I also think while Rich Rod is a pretty good coach, he is not a great coach. I wouldn't put him in my top ten of coaches in division I/fbs.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
Yes, Arizona looks somewhat similar, because Rodriguez still hasn't put his stamp on the program in terms of personnel and that program wasn't in great shape (though much better than UM was since Carey and Scott were difference makers and the numbers were less atrocious across the board). For year two they've done quite a bit though.
They've had good recruiting classes, but have also added some elite talents through the transfer market. Last year their QB was a JUCO transfer literally no one else had offered. Ever. Yet they blew out an Oregon team that went 11-2 (way better win than he had here, and certainly more impressive than anything Hoke has done). The year before they blew out a decent Washington team, beat a decent USC team, beat a decent Ok. State team, and took a 12-2 Stanford team to OT on the road. They are already better than what he inherited at UM (16-10 as opposed to 8-16 at the same point, in probably a better league).
That personnel stamp is coming very soon, and in a big way. Next year their offensive line pretty much all returns. Austin Hill, who missed 2013 with an injury but posted 1,300+ yards in 2012, is back. Davonte Neal (4-star transfer from ND) becomes eligible. So does Cayleb Jones (4-star transfer from Texas). There is talk that the freshman who led them in receiving last year will probably be coming off the bench. The QB next year will be one of three 4-star transfers (Connor Brewer, Jesse Scroggins, Jerrard Randall, from Texas, USC, and LSU respectively) or 4-star recruit Anu Solomon.
And the defense has looked way more organized/coherent with Casteel than it ever did here (not trying to run a 4-3 for two years and then trying to get GERG to switch to a 3-3-5). With a roster full of their recruits I think they'll be just fine (just like things were fine here once guys like Ryan, Countess, and Morgan replaced guys like Ezeh and the black hole in the secondary depth chart).
Speaking of craters, Rodriguez was planning on playing Will Campbell on offense (swapped him and Washington, Hoke put them both on D where Jibreel Black ended up playing more than either one by the end of their senior seasons). So that would make a 5th NFL lineman that Hoke inherited and has done nothing but bitch about (Molk, Omameh, BWC, Lewan, and Schofield). He had also lined up a commitment from Jake Fisher (who started as a RS freshman at Oregon) before the complete lack of job security you get from your AD telling kids he doesn't know who will coach the team next year sort of did things in. I think we would have been fine with just a dash of institutional support (Brandon wouldn't even have had to write a letter saying he'll be here a very long time, as he just did for Hoke). Assuming a nice 2011 season, things would have been back on track right away on the recruiting trail and we'd be in a much better place today, IMO.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:24 PM ^
My view is RR would have had a nice 2011 just as Hoke did (although not as good of a record due to defense coordinator). 2011 was set up like 2015 is set up for whoever the coach is. 2011 UM's best wins were v VATech and Nebraska;neither great teams... everyone else was mediocre on the schedule (ND 8-5 and everyone else 7-6 or worse) and it was a nice home schedule with our top rival Fickell'd. The record was great but the schedule was set up perfectly in retrospect. I don't think the defense would have been as good because Mattison > anything RR would have done. So instead of 11-2 I think RR would have been 9-4ish and that would have raised the hopes and given him more time.
Then I don't think 2012 or 2013 would have been much different from what Hoke has done due to the issues outlined above.
Obviously none of us know the future but I think what happened in his recruiting classes in 2010-2011 were too deterimental to moving off that 8-5 type pattern for 2012-2013-2014. I am not in any camp - RR, Hoke, Carr - I could care less.... I am just in get us an elite coach camp. I didn't see elite coming from him here, maybe due to politics and budget constraints Martin put on him or whatever. I wish him the best there - if he does it big time maybe it was just the right situation for him ... think he has a lot of competition in UCLA as long as Mora Jr stays, USC will be back, Oregon, Stanford and ASU. If he can start winning Pac 12s I will be impressed.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:57 PM ^
Blaming a guy for a class when he got no support trying to recruit it and got fired before he could sign it seems insane. Hoke brought in the #31 class on Rivals last year and has the #23 class this year. And that is with the AD telling everyone how awesome he is. Bitching that Rodriguez didn't recruit better with no job security, and then with no job, is plain nuts.
The 2009 class was awesome top to bottom. Record breaking QB, record breaking WR, three NFL o-linemen, 2-time all-conference mention in Craig Roh (without benefit of his fifth year), Q-Wash, 1,000 yard RB and solid backup/3rd down guy, 3-year starter at safety (Gordon), a guy who was 2nd on the team in sacks this year (Cam Gordon). Throw in Kovacs and you have a huge haul. The 2010 class looks bad because it was skewed on purpose. We brought in a ton of DBs but ended up filling that need in 2009 and 2011 (Countess and Taylor). So some guys left. They weren't necessarily scrubs. Ray Vinopal started for a Pitt team that won a bowl game this year and was 2nd on the team in tackles. Carvin Johnson was an all-conference player at Hampton. Josh Furman just got picked up by a program that has won 41 games the last 4 years.
The only place our depth chart has been thin is on the interior offensive line this year (yet there was plenty of bitching that the 2012 line with 4 NFL linemen on the roster just didn't have the talent Hoke needed). I highly doubt Rich Rodriguez recruits in the 2011 and 2012 class (had he been given the minimum institutional support I mentioned above) would have amounted to the non-entity that the Hoke recruits did this past season in those spots. Especially if Al Borges wasn't calling plays for them.
We'll see, but it would be nice if people were willing to actually change their minds if/when the evidence vindicates the guy. I'd hate to see people a year from now arguing about how much easier it is to win at Arizona than at Michigan.
Dude. This. Amen.
You say you want a leader
But you can't seem to make up your mind
I think you better close it
And let me guide you to the purple rain
--
A thousand times yes Purple Stuff. The fanbase is as schismatic as it ever was. Only wins bring unity.
April 24th, 2014 at 12:11 AM ^
Under Hoke and under RR, and even under Carr for his last 5 years, UM has not beaten a late season Top 5 team in something like a decade. And not only win, but crush them (42-16).
Our "high profile" wins over ND were nice, but were against over-ranked, overrated teams. Oregon was a legit top 5 team last year when AZ beat them -- and U of M hasn't beaten one of those in something like 11 years (which makes me sad)
But even if that one win is a fluke (which is possible, though he's already beat other ranked teams in his two years at AZ), it's far, far to early to say "didn't work here, same result in AZ".
Arizona had a bettter year than Michigan last year, which stinks, and after reviewing our roster and watching the spring game, I'm not that confident we'll be a lot better this year. Hopefully I'm wrong and just depressed after watching our offense at the spring game.
This is a fair point. A sad point but a fair point. UM has not had a win of that profile in long time. But I stand by the point he went 1-5 against anyone in the Pac 12 with a heartbeat. That 1 win was impressive from the fact it was a talented team - even if they played down that weekend.
I also think 2 years is too soon to judge and we'll see how he does in the next 2 years; he has a lot less pressure there than here and it seems a lot better cultural fit. I am just saying there is not yet evidence to say he is back to the West VA RR with his small body of work at AZ.
And I agree beating ND nowadays is not much to speak of, just as when ND beats UM nowadays there is not much credibility to it. Save for 2012 ND and 2006 UM it is basically like watching 2 dinosaurs slugging at each other to see who could potentially be ranked #23 by year end with their 4-5 losses. Woo hoo.
It's Arizona.
April 24th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
Nope. Hoke might not be the savior but Big East recruiting put us into this mess.
April 23rd, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
We hired one shitty coach.
April 23rd, 2014 at 10:28 PM ^
I thought Saban retired him with that SEC Championship game
April 24th, 2014 at 10:40 AM ^
Brady Hoke is our Charlie Weiss it's just as usual with our fan base 75% are always in denial of what is really going on.
April 24th, 2014 at 12:22 AM ^
the schedule this year is the worst in a long time. Unless we get killed by OSU MSU and the like and win ugly i think he goes into year five. Even at 6-7.
April 24th, 2014 at 10:42 AM ^
If he gets to come back with a 6-7 record in year 4 than Brandon should be fired that second. If Hoke doesn't go 9-3 or better with the crap schedule we play he should have to walk to his new place just like he said he would have walked here.
If he doesn't win 9 or 10 in year four, he's gone.
Hoke only has to win 6 games to be back in 2015. I think we can start judging him when his first recruiting class becomes upper class-men. This will start to happen in 2015 and we better see a big jump, more like 9 or more wins and at least 1 win at home against either MSU or OSU. I don't see Hoke being an elite coach but could bring the program back to Carr standards, 8 to 9 wins per season with the occasional 10+ win season. In Carr case he got the co-National Championship. If every thing fall right, then Hoke could win a NC, some time in his 10 to 15 year career!
That answer is what is wrong with a large portion of our fan base. They just don't understand what it means to be champions. Success for some on here is failure to me and a lot of other posters.