"Be EXPLOSIVE!" Stats reveal Michigan's offensive (and defensive) problem
The shortcomings of this season's offense mostly comes down to one non-random (the fumble thing is mostly bad luck) thing: a lack of big plays. It's year five of Harbaugh, and we should have better QB play and better OL play (even with a system transition), but the lack of success carrying out Building Block #1 (see below) is alarming and is what is really holding us back.
The Building Blocks for 〽️Offensively!
— Josh Gattis (@Coach_Gattis) January 13, 2019
1. Be EXPLOSIVE!
2. Protect the Football & Who Has It!
3. Be Aggresive & Score!
DNA➕SCHEME➕CONFIDENCE=?????#SpeedInSpace #GoBlue〽️
Here are the Michigan offense stats to back it up:
- #59 offense according to FEI. That's a barely above-average offense.
- #20 in OFD, the percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown or at least one first down. That's ahead of SMU, Baylor, UCF, ND, PSU, Memphis, Clemson, and Oregon--all top 20 offenses in FEI. That means we're at least moving the ball at a pretty consistent rate.
- #60 in OED, the percentage of offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play. That's behind New Mexico, Toledo, and Liberty (offenses ranked 106th or worse in FEI).
- 100th in plays of 30+ yards, and 92nd in plays of 40+ yards. #1 Oklahoma has 36 plays of 30+ yards. Michigan has 10.
- 86th(!) in yards per play.
It's a problem for Michigan's defense too:
- #18 defense according to FEI, but is #8 in DAY, the total yards surrendered by the defense divided by the total yards available to be earned based on starting field position and is #7 in DBD, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that earn zero or negative yards.
- 37th in DTD, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown.
- 35th in DED, the percentage of opponent offensive drives that average at least ten yards per play.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
It was my understanding there would be no math.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^
I'm not in the mood for this.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
As a millennial, I am inclined to say the following:
- Oof
- Yikes
- That ain't it
- That's a no from me, dawg.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
We have cool helmets though but yeah this coaching staff deserves the criticism.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:23 PM ^
This season and these stats are an example of why total yardage is only part of the picture. I see people using “outgained” as some tell all for why a team A should have beaten team B. It’s overly simplistic.
Big plays lead to higher points/yard (a metric that i think is meaningful but doesn’t get much play). A defense that gives up big plays is like a pitcher in baseball that gives up 5 hits in 1 inning instead of scattering them over a game. An offense without big plays requires more total yardage to score. Keeping with the baseball analogy, an offense that strands a lot of runners. We either need to make less mistakes and get better on 3rd down, or make more big plays.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^
Great analogies. Would be great to get better on 3rd down, but it's just plain to hard to be that consistent, especially in college. The best offenses in CFB are the ones that score quickly.
October 26th, 2019 at 3:59 PM ^
This season and these stats are an example of why total yardage is only part of the picture. I see people using “outgained” as some tell all for why a team A should have beaten team B. It’s overly simplistic.
Oh God....please don't remind me of all the RR slappies who used to go on about, "yardz, bro," as if they counted towards winning football games.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^
They have pretty much failed at #2 and #3 as well. For all of the talk....Gattis has been just talk.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
Right, Gattis, we were so explosive last year before he got here.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:06 PM ^
Urban Meyer says the same thing every week about UM - the lack of an explosive running game is impacting the UM passing game. Two safeties deep and the stop the pass is what every defense is doing to UM, unless it’s an obvious running play.
October 25th, 2019 at 5:25 PM ^
Shocking I'm sure we have the best RB coach available....no former NFL or experienced NCAA RBs could be better than the coach's son!
October 25th, 2019 at 8:36 PM ^
He's a clear upgrade to former 9 year NFL vet, UM star, and Michigan native Tyrone Wheatley... oh wait.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:12 PM ^
Plus he is soooooo good at teaching them how to hold on to the ball and not fumble, given all of his experience as an All-American running back in college and years in the pros!!!!!!!!
October 25th, 2019 at 8:01 PM ^
I thought that the guy in the picture is Captain Hindsight.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:35 PM ^
I'll do my part by loading up on some chili with beans. We WILL be explosive this week!
October 25th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
Well duh. This is the problem with Harbaugh, as far as I can tell this is on purpose.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:52 PM ^
As for Michigan's offense, I've noticed Brian repeatedly identify the blocking whiffs by WRs (particularly Nico). What makes a big running play is downfield blocking. If the WRs don't excel at downfield blocks, big plays in the run game are less likely. It's not at all coincidental to me that WRs have missed on blocks and the M run offense has lacked explosive plays.
Really good O-line play can give the RB the first 5 yards rather easy; but it takes downfield blocking (i.e. WRs) to turn a 5-10 yard gain into a 20-30+ yard gain.
I recall Evan Spencer started at WR on the 2014 OSU team. There were faster & better WRs on the roster, several players whose numbers showed they were more explosive than Evan Spencer. It was easy to wonder 'Why the heck is Spencer starting when there are so many other weapons available to put on the field?' It's because Spencer was an excellent blocker. Urb always emphasized that WRs need to become very good blockers in order to get a lot of PT. Other OSU WRs have been very good blockers.
It appears to me that Michigan's WRs might not be very good at blocking. The lack of explosiveness in the run game might be a result.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:31 PM ^
Which is strange, because as a Bo disciple, JH should know that. Good observation.
October 25th, 2019 at 7:04 PM ^
He does know that, but our prima donna "NFL receivers" don't put in the effort to make it work on an every down basis.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
Not sure why you are getting downvoted for stating a fact.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:41 PM ^
Good point. In my observation, all OSU wide receivers are maniacal blockers, they really seem to get it. Our guys, not as much.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:51 PM ^
Excellent point. In 2015 and 2016 the WR’s were excellent blocker and it was commented on nearly every game during the broadcasts. People in here go on and on about Michigan’s WR’s being NFL WR’s but, from what I’ve seen, they’re not elite route runners, have some drop issues from time to time, as as you aptly said, aren’t blocking downfield worth a shit! NFL WR’s usually do all three of those things really well.
Not only is it limiting the run game, but it’s limiting the horizontal short passing game that is an extension of the run game, and a staple of the RPO scheme. Watch a great RPO team and you’ll see CB’s on their asses or, at the very least, blocked well on all those quick outside passes. Michigan’s WR’s often seem to be hit and get little, while OU’s (for example) are breaking big gains. The odd part is that our WR’s, so to their size, should excel at blocking. But then again, blocking is 90% want-to and 10% technique.
October 25th, 2019 at 5:34 PM ^
I long for the days of Darboh and Chesson blocking - those guys really got after it
October 25th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^
They really did, didn’t they?
I’ve mentioned this before but I know a retired, long-time HS football coach here in Austin, TX. Talking football with him is great and he always says that no matter the scheme or the team, football always comes back down to blocking and tackling. Explosive plays for and against almost always come down to a made block and a missed tackle.
October 25th, 2019 at 6:08 PM ^
It's just a shame Jim McElwain couldn't be kept on. The WRs were better at everything last year. I wish he had been given the entire passing game/QB/WRs game for years to come.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:46 PM ^
It's just a shame Jim McElwain couldn't be kept on. The WRs were better at everything last year
This should come up more than it does. The WRs looked so much better last year. Gattis is a proven good/great WR coach, but something isn't working this time around - maybe OC/WR is too much responsibility as a first time OC.
October 25th, 2019 at 6:48 PM ^
This feels like it’s been an issue for tears. UM backs just don’t get near the chunk plays I remember back in the 80s and 90s. And now we got Brian citing poor TE blocking. Let’s go!!!
October 25th, 2019 at 8:10 PM ^
I think the problem has been that we've had some really good blocking WRs, we've had some really good downfield threats, but we've rarely had receivers that were great at both. It seems like we've had too many situations where the receivers we put in gave away whether we were running or passing.
I think it has been better this year, but now we have the problem of having poor (or low effort) blockers in on run plays.
To be honest, I think our best all-around WR is Ronnie Bell even though he doesn't have the highest ceiling.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:41 PM ^
Good comment. Our WR development has been really questionable for this current crop of starters. Their freshman year they had a GA and no position coach, then they looked pretty decent when shark humper was here just focusing on them, and now they look pretty lazy. If you were to watch our WRs play without any knowledge of the hype, I doubt you'd look at any of them and say "yeah, that's a sure fire NFL guy right there."
Darboh and Chesson were both less talented than our current top guys but they were elite blockers with really refined technique.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:01 PM ^
Like Dynamite ! ... unfortunately, it is going to rain on that thought for this Saturday.
Need to be in ugly mode tomorrow night. Trying to be explosive is a fools errand in bad weather. I like Seth's goal of more Down G and Ben Mason at H-back ... body blows to those shit-little LBs and DEs that ND run blitzes. Big stinking guys (Mason, Ruiz, Onwenu) going in "their little fit gaps" and redirecting those skinny a-holes all the way to Ypsilanti.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
Michigan's offensive and defensive problems are revealed when you watch them play.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:17 PM ^
No, it’s because we all touch ourselves at night.
October 25th, 2019 at 4:56 PM ^
The part about being 86th in yards per play on offense is the one that gets me more than many others. Speed In Space certainly plods along at an unimpressive clip for this and many other reasons.
October 25th, 2019 at 6:04 PM ^
I really got lost in your numbers.
It's cumbersome to read this, especially with just walking in the door from work.
You're point is that Michigan needs to get an OC that will deliver an elite offense, now?
If that's your point, I am 100% with that!
October 25th, 2019 at 6:21 PM ^
Turds I think I can do it for you if you want to come over and play with me and I will be there in a few minutes to talk to you about it when I get home from work until I get home to see if you can get a ride to the airport on the way home from the gym and then I can get a ride to the airport on the way home from the gym and then I can get a ride to the airport on the way home from the gym and then I can get a ride to the airport on the way home from the gym and
October 25th, 2019 at 7:58 PM ^
I'm gonna assume Coach Gattis realizes the offense needs to improve significantly.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Safe assumption, but does he know how to improve it?
October 25th, 2019 at 10:43 PM ^
Well....
October 25th, 2019 at 9:51 PM ^
Interesting numbers. What to do about it? How do we fix it?
October 26th, 2019 at 1:53 AM ^
The main thing I took from this:
Gattis talked a lot of junk about the offense in the offseason... and it's been almost the exact opposite of the 3 keys he listed ?
Beat ND.