Baumgardner reviews Shea Patterson
Nick Baumgardner, who I think is really the only person in the Detroit MSM that does any type of homework and film review, reviews Patterson here. Nothing really new, mostly consistent with Brian's take though he's a bit more positive.
"I'd caution against anointing him as the answer to all of Michigan's prayers right now, as he needs to learn this offense and keep developing. He also needs to be protected by his offensive line, but that's another conversation.
Patterson has the tools to be special if Michigan can coach him up and keep him upright. But no one should be writing off Peters just yet."
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverin…
December 15th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
has been awful. I can't name a single current starting QB right now who would be playing on Sundays. It's that bad. Only one I can probably say is Drew Lock from Mizzou but other than that, nope. Saying he's near the top of every SEC QB stats is like saying you're the best looking out of a room full of ugly people.
December 15th, 2017 at 10:59 AM ^
Nick Fitzgerald will at least get a cup of coffee in the NFL at 6'5" 230 lbs and 4.5 speed. He's essentially the Great Value Cam Newton.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^
Franklin?
December 15th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
against top shelf defensive talent.
Beats the 59 we were getting last season...
December 15th, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^
Here are the numbers from this year:
vs Alabama (the #9 pass defense): 14/29 for 165 yards with 2 Int and 0 TD
vs Cal (the #59 pass defense): 26/44 for 363 yards with 3 Int and 2 TD
vs LSU (the #24 pass defense): 10/23 for 116 yards with 3 Int and 0 TD
vs Auburn (the #1 pass defense): 34/51 for 346 yards with 0 Int and 2 TD
vs Vanderbilt (the #16 pass defense): 22/35 for 351 yards with 0 Int and 4 TD
(A couple of caveats: Cal was installing a new defense. They probably weren't yet the 59th best passing defense, so maybe that's not "top shelf defensive talent". And most of the yards against Auburn came with Auburn holding a 38-3 lead and just waiting for the game to end.)
That's an average of 268 yards, not quite 300. Of course, I didn't look at 2016. Maybe that bumps him up to over 300 yards.
December 15th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^
I like what you're thinking, but I'm not quite sure where you got your rankings from (e.g., if we're going by yards per game, Alabama is the #7 pass defense; California is #115)
http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/team/_/stat/total/posit…
But I think more valuable is Yards per Attempt, as that shows how effective a team is. On that score, Vanderbilt (by far Shea's best game) is 74th; Cal is 77th. Even LSU is 36th. Alabama is #1 and that was, not surprisingly, a terrible game for Shea.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/opponent-yards-per-p…
Even against Auburn, a legit good pass defense (23rd) where Shea had pretty good stats, about 175 of those yards and both TDs came in the second half after Ole Miss was down 38-3.
Shea is very skilled and has a lot of potential. He also has gotten some good game experience which should help him be less jittery if he's the starter against ND on the road (to pick just one example). But he's far from proven.
December 15th, 2017 at 4:28 PM ^
Should have said: I was using S&P+
I agree that YPA is better than yards per game, but you'd want to adjust for quality of opponents somehow. Presumably S&P+ is doing that, so I used their (rather opaque) rankings.
Vanderbilt was Shea's (are we all on a first name basis? I guess so) best game.
I also should have mentioned that he continued playing in the LSU with a torn knee ligament, so that performance was probably better than the final stats indicate.
So if you want to be optimistic, you would note that he seemed to be improving through the season.
December 15th, 2017 at 5:47 PM ^
I'm always wary of using rankings that I don't understand; that might be my problem, but if I don't know how something "adjusts" then I don't want to overly value it. It is another useful data point, though.
Regardless, I just think we're trying to read too much into a small subset of games, e.g., Vanderbilt. Vandy's non-conf schedule was MTSU, Alabama A&M and Western Kentucky -- not much useful info there. And as pointed out, the SEC is not exactly filled with top-notch QBs (e.g., the guy from Mizzou is pretty good -- he threw for 235 Yards, 3 TDs and 0 Ints against Vandy in a 45-17 win; Alabama beat Vandy 59-0; Auburn has a good QB, but they didn't play Vandy), so it's hard to say Vandy had a good pass defense, in my opinion.
So I end up where I began -- UM is getting a very talented young QB who has some game experience, and he potentially could be very good/great; but he is far from proven.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:04 AM ^
Is there a B1G QB who is likely to make it as an NFL QB?
December 15th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 11:46 AM ^
His career best game so far is completing 50% of his passes for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns against Maryland. If you think that what Peters has done makes him likely to play in the NFL then you're just plain dumb.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
He'd thrown for 13 yards and a pick six in his first action.
Drew Brees completed less than half of his passes in his first year of action.
Not suggesting this means anything for Peters--because it doesn't--but it does mean it's too early to tell.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^
It's definitely too early to tell. I'm promoting "wait and see" and you're bringing up Brady and Brees. There is not yet good reason to think that Brandon Peters will sniff the NFL, let alone become a hall of fame player.
December 16th, 2017 at 6:53 AM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
That was the point of his post, knucklehead! The state of the B1G QB's is, ahem, sad... He should have put the '/s' a couple of lines below 'Peters"...
The really sad thing is that you could project Peters to be inolved with NFL talk in a couple of years. But you can't project many other B1G QBs to be in that conversation.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^
Thorson will get a shot.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
Doubtful
December 16th, 2017 at 8:03 AM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 11:23 AM ^
Jarrett Stidham would get drafted if he comes out early. Jalen Hurts has NFL level talent, but is not a prototypical NFL QB. You could say the same for McSorley. They're very good college QBs.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:09 PM ^
while agree that he has talent...he hasn't shown the ability to progress through reads or to win a game with his arm. He has saved Bama a few times with his legs, but that's about it. He has to do more than screens, deep balls to a wide open Calvin Ridley, and read option in my opinion. Also, it would be the first Bama Qb since...Mcelroy to get to the NFL?
Plus Bama...with all the talent they have he only averages 161 yards passing per game. That includes games against Mercer, and dumpster fire Tennessee. He had 96 vs FSU and 103 vs Auburn. Another strike against him...only 3 starting Qb's in the NFL are 6'2 and under. Brees, Russell Wilson and Tyrod Taylor. I don't really like his chances. Also a reason I think Peters may have an advantage over Shea in the fall.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:56 PM ^
More that he's just as good a college QB as many who will play in the NFL. There's talent, but he doesn't fit what the NFL is looking for. Same for JT Barrett. Mostly true for McSorley too, but I think he has a better shot to play in the NFL.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^
Lock, Fromm, Fitzgerald, Stidham and Hurts will all see NFL rosters at some point.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 6:33 PM ^
a good NFL QB prospect will likely play well regardless of college system. Every QB that panned out in the NFL are stars in college football. Judging players if they're NFL material is a good measure of the talent level
December 15th, 2017 at 11:03 AM ^
People here have hyped Peters as our savior when he has been very mediocre. People here said our offensive line was going to be better because of "addition by subtraction" this past year. People said Peoples-Jones and Black would be better as freshman than Chesson and Darboh were as seniors because they're "more athletic."
The Mgoblog community has never been gunshy about annointed unproven players as elite players. Everybody in a winged helmet is a future All-American on the MgoBoard.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:26 AM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
To pile on to point C, most of the posts I saw said that FR WR don't do well because they aren't taught to run routes in HS. It usually takes a year or so for someone to get acclimated. Same actually sort of holds true in the NFL. With rare exceptions rookie WR seldom make a significant impact (at least from a fantasy perspective) in their first year.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
than last year's
I think what happened was what was widely predicted. That this group would be better at run blocking and worse at pass pro and that they would improve some during the season.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:10 PM ^
blatant holding calls weren't called against DPJ??
December 15th, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^
Probably hundreds of receiving yards worth of no-calls. He'd be all-B1G if it weren't for those dang refs. /s
December 15th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
troll's gonna troll
December 15th, 2017 at 1:42 PM ^
I was sky-high on our receivers coming into the year and I was wrong. I figured they would be "at least" as good.
Of course, I also thought our OL would take a step back, and I was "pumping the brakes" on Peters during the season (correctly, it turns out, but that did not and still does not mean anything for next year).
I think the jury is out on Peters, but I am optimistic that he can rectify his biggest issue this year, preparation, over the offseason. I think he'll be a different guy. I am hopeful that we'll see real signs of it on New Year's Day.
FWIW I am hopeful (this is a step or so below "optimistic") about the tackle situation next year but who knows how it will turn out. However, I am "optimistic" that a great deal of the pass pro issues faced by the interior line can be fixed.
And they had better be.
December 15th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^
Well then.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:41 AM ^
DPJ was a freshman All-American and wasn't even the #1 freshman wide receiver on our roster to start the year. Why don't you chill out. I have never seen a comment saying the freshman would be that polished. In fact, Brian and the blog have gone into great detail on how limited freshman wide receiver statitistis are for highly rated players.
December 15th, 2017 at 11:59 AM ^
Some publications (247 is the only one I actually see) have named him and freshman all-american PUNT RETURNER. Neither Peoples-Jones or Tarik Black have proven to be impact players at wide receiver.
Brian has been outspoken about the limited impact of freshmen wide receivers, but the board has never bought into any kind of wait and see attitude toward any player or position.
December 15th, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^
December 15th, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
Based on what!?
December 15th, 2017 at 1:07 PM ^
They are better at this point in their career. Can't say you could call them better than Sr's Darboh and Chesson but as Freshmen they are. By year end did they approach that level? Don't think so but that's what sports blog's live to debate.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^
That's a weird and purely academic discussion to try to have. People here said that our WRs and TEs in 2017 would be an improvement over Chesson, Darboh, and Butt. Ian Bunting was assumed to be Butt 2.0 too. Obviously, none of that has actually been remotely close to reality.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
Who are these people you speak of? Certainly not enough to profile the entire mgoboard having that opinion.
December 15th, 2017 at 2:11 PM ^
It was a common sentiment on the board during the preseason this year.
December 15th, 2017 at 2:44 PM ^
There's always going to be a diversity of opinions and some posters are perpetually optimistic or pessimistic. I think you're making a mistake in cherrypicking opinions and attributing them to the board as a whole.
Most of the optimism at TE was due to the expectations for Asiasi. I suspect if he did stay, our overall TE production would have surpassed 2016, even though no one TE would have been Butt's equal.
December 15th, 2017 at 1:43 PM ^
I just owned up to being overly optimistic about our WRs but nobody on this board thought that we would be BETTER at TE without Jake butt or Devin Asiasi. That's simply untrue. TBH our TEs were a pleasant surprise to me this year.
December 15th, 2017 at 2:15 PM ^
People said Bunting would be as good and that Wheatley would better in some aspects because he's a better blocker. Turned out that those two players were virtually invisible all season.
December 15th, 2017 at 4:20 PM ^
You have to be "eroc" from gbmw.
December 15th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
Dude cmon now. Nobody was saying that. You are making shit up to fit your narrative. Are you CNN?