Basketball Recruiting
So I was reading the recruiting roundup over on umhoops (http://www.umhoops.com/2015/01/29/recruiting-roundup-january-29th-2015/) and it really doesn't seem like we are in the leading group of any of our 2016 targets and seem to be going in the wrong direction. Growing up as a Maryland fan I can't get Gary Williams career at Maryland as a comp out of my head and I don't like it.
To give a little background Gary Williams is a HOF coach who took Maryland from a situation where it was still struggling after the sanctions from the Len Bias tragedy and built them back up to the point where they were a top 5 program in college basketball in the late 90's and early 00's including back to back final fours and a national championship with a team comprised mostly of under recruited guys he coached up. However he never capitilized on that success in recruiting and never made it past the sweet sixteen again. Due to the fact that he was a great in game coach his teams still played well, regularly upsetting duke and unc, they won an acc tourney title and regular season acc title in his last 7 years but they were never again among the elite. I'm worried that I see the same thing happening with Beilein where he is such a great coach his teams are always competing but just don't have the talent or the right combination to make that magical run to elite again.
I'm hoping someone here can convince me that I'm misreading the 2016 recruiting situation and we are looking better than I think.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
Every team is awesome always and forever
January 29th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^
I think this current roster, minus Caris and Spike, will be around in two years. Maybe there becomes a crowded position where someone transfers, but if you retain 90% of the potential roster, this is a Sweet 16 at worst roster.
January 29th, 2015 at 7:44 PM ^
Did you think Nik, Caris, GR3, and McGary would all be gone? Did you think Trey Burke was going to win the Naismith and carry the team to the national title game?
Did you expect Evan Smotrycz to transfer? Did you expect Caris to get hurt?
What attrition are you accounting for? Because there is always attrition.
I think Zak Irvin is an obvious early entry candidate because of shooting ability and size. His career arc is similar to THJs. Walton is probably a 4-year player because of size, but it would not surprise me if he blew up either.
I have high hopes for this team next year and the year beyond but there is a serious question about athleticism. You need NBA talent to compete for a conference title. Right now, Michigan doesn't have much of it and so is reliant on the '16 recruiting class to be great.
January 29th, 2015 at 4:09 PM ^
Look at what we are playing with right now.
1) A Sophomore PG that on 1 leg is outplaying most of the league AND most likely will not be an early entry. Yet we KNOW he can play better when healthy. The best part about Walton is that he is MONEY down the strech with the ball and at the FT Line.
2) 3 True Freshman that are showing promise already (MAAR, Dawkins, and Doyle)
3) Robinson coming in from a Transfer
4) Still in good shape for several 2016 prospects
I have also not mentioned Irving and I am going on the thought that most of the kids mentioned above will not be leaving soon. They are good, but NOT that good......yet.....
Given the strong belief / demonstration that Coach B develops these kids. I am actually very excited about 2015 and especially 2016 when the 5 kids noted above will all be Upper classmen sprinkled with some promising young talent.
One thing we should take out of this season (and it was noted heavily by Brian in the Pre-Season Analysis). Never underestimate the value of seasoned big men on your team.
This year is what it is (and I am growing by the day of how proud I am to root for these kids), but I am not bashful or afraid of what 2015 / 2016 have in store.
January 29th, 2015 at 5:00 PM ^
beilein better land one of those stud point guards for 2016. it is an absolute must to keep the gravy train rolling. do that and this team is back to competing for BIG titles (and beyond) for the next several years.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:17 PM ^
(including Caris).
Are you speculating about Walton and/or Irvin leaving after their junior years?
January 29th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^
Just read the update. It says that we have fallen out of Thornton's group, but that's the only guy who is trending down for us. Why do you think we are out of contention with our targets?
Also, I thought the 2014 class had a lot of misses with Devin Booker and James Blackmon going elsewhere, among others. But this just seems like the pace of recruiting with basketball.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^
I certainly missed where we are trending down with guys like Winston and Towns. Winston seems to be trending up, perhaps related to the Thornton sentiment.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
My thought as well. It says that Josh Langford and Cassius Winston have both visited, Winston "often." Both of those guys seem very much in play and are consensus top-50 players.
January 29th, 2015 at 7:35 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
You are way off on the 2016 kids. Michigan is in great shape with Cassius Winston, Tyus Battle, and Josh Langford who are all near 5 stars.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
The guys at Rivals are pretty optimistic about Michigan's chances with Winston, Battle, and Langford. However, they were also optimistic about Michigan's chances with Bates-Diop, Booker, Kennard, Tate, Blackmon, etc, etc. Basketball recruiting is weird and dirtier than football recruiting. It's very difficult for old school, honest guys like Beilein.
As of now, I bet Michigan only lands Winton out of those 3 guys in 2016.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:24 PM ^
agree on Winston; but I think we have a solid shot at Tate.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:32 PM ^
Also don't forget about the whole Nike/AAU thing that might be a factor for some recruits.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:01 PM ^
"Basketball recruiting is weird and dirtier than football recruiting. It's very difficult for old school, honest guys like Beilein."
I think this is very likely. Other teams tell these kids what they want to hear, especially in regard to playing in the NBA. School? What's that? Beilein, I'm sure stresses the importance of getting a degree and other important things over the NBA. Plus, I'm sure he never negative recruits anyone. Can't say the same about some of our competition. I'm pretty sure that's why most elite big men stay away from Michigan. Other coaches just tell kids we don't run a system that's good for bigs.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
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January 29th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
Rumors are that Landford and Battle may want to play together. I'm not saying he's going to end up at Michigan, but things aren't going in a negative direction at all.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:23 PM ^
The rumors six months ago were that Battle and Thornton wanted to play together. Now that Thornton is leaning toward Kentucky, they're saying it's Battle and Langford that want to play together.
I don't believe it. Michigan guys have been pretty inaccurate on bball recruiting over the past few years when it comes to higher level prospects.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
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January 29th, 2015 at 2:07 PM ^
I watched Gary Williams coach many games at both OSU & Maryland. I can easily say, Gary Williams is no John Beilein when it comes to coaching (both in development and in-game strategy). Not taking away from Williams, it's just that Beilein is that good. I am not concerened, at all, about Beilein's ability to get in the right mix of players to make future runs to the final four.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:14 PM ^
Beilein is probably a better developer of players but I have to disagree with your assesment of gary williams as an in game coach. I love Beilein but his strict adherence to his foul policy and the slow starts to games and halves that have plagued his team on top of usually pretty mediocre defense puts him behing Gary in in game coaching to me.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
Williams ran his full-court press system for good and for bad. He wasn't really noted for making in-game adjustments. Beilein is far more flexible and willing to adapt to his players. What we have seen of late reinforces that.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:08 PM ^
FWIW, Sam Webb is very confident about Seth Towns.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:38 PM ^
Is that a recent statement from Webb?
Michigan was a heavy favorite until osu offered in Nov.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^
Why? It seems like OSU is his dream school.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
College basketball has become so monopolized. It's quite annoying. All of the big time recruits are going to the same 3 or 4 schools. Even on the rare occasion that Detroit produces an elite talent like Josh Jackson, Michigan and MSU aren't even among his top choices. Beilein's gonna have to continue to hit on some diamonds in the rough if we're gonna continue to succeed.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
Josh Jackson is a walking NCAA violation. I wouldn't want Michigan to go near him due to potential NCAA sanctions. The kid's mom, Apple or Peach or something, started a "school" in California for him and works for his AAU team to basically capitalize on his success.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:28 PM ^
Whether or not you'd want him, it still speaks to the landscape of basketball recruiting. All of the kids are going to Duke, UK, Kansas, UNC, etc. And a lot of these kids seem to come in package deals now, which gives these blue blood programs an even bigger advantage.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
I agree with you. Add in the issue of school sports apparel contracts and it is getting ridiculous how difficult it is for schools to have an even playing field for recruiting. The fact this Q&A even took place in the interview with Jaylen Brown is sad:
"Brown was also asked about the importance of attending an adidas-affiliated school. Of the schools he’s considering, Michigan, Kansas and UCLA are sponsored by the three stripes. While he called an adidas sneaker affiliation a benefit, he insisted it wasn’t the driving force in his decision.
“It doesn’t (matter). It’s a benefit (because) I played on the adidas circuit so going to an adidas school I already have a relationship with the reps,” he said. “But it doesn’t matter for me. If a college in Switzerland was the best fit for me, that’s where I’m going.”"
January 29th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
honest question - how does OSU recruit as well as they do?
January 29th, 2015 at 2:40 PM ^
They've been better longer than we have. But this recruiting class they got was their best one in a while. They were lucky that Sullinger was from Columbus, so that was pretty much a no-brainer. Other than that, they don't recruit at that high a level.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^
Oden, Conley, Buford, Sullinger, Bates-Diop, Russell, Turner, Koufus, Mullens, Thomas, etc. Just the guys I named were all four and five star players.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:04 PM ^
I guess, yeah. Kinda forgot about those mid-2000s teams.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:42 PM ^
Matta is a persuasive recruiter and underrated coach, and he also has Indiana ties. They have a large and (often) passionate fanbase. They're the in-state school for top kids pretty regularly. They've sent several guys to the NBA recently. I don't think there's anything noteworthy as to why they get good players.
January 29th, 2015 at 5:22 PM ^
They also have the advantage of not having an in-state competitor for Ohio kids, which remains a pretty large talent pool. If you're a top recruit from Ohio and you want to stay close to home, OSU's got the edge in a big way. MSU and UM are in a forever battle for Michigan kids, essentially splitting them. Imagine if we were the only high major school in Michigan; our classes would probably look a lot more like OSU's.
January 29th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
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January 29th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^
don't ask purdue and IU fans how matta does so when in Indy.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:09 PM ^
There's a lot of time between now and 2016. Keep putting guys in the NBA and winning games and they will come. We just need to make the tourney this year. MSU missing it and us making it would help change the perceptions of the programs more.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:11 PM ^
I blame Adidas.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
Jaylen Brown's AAU team is actually sponsored by Adidas, so it can help us with him.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:15 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 2:26 PM ^
My point is that I have seen this before. It is really hard to win the NCAA tourney without elite talent and when you see teams make a run with a bunch of under recruited players it is almost always for a year or two span before they drop off. Mark Few is a really good coach but Gonzaga has never made the final four, Butler has been good but not great for a decade now and outside of their two title runs in back to back years is a team you expect to upset a team then lose. I want to be less like those teams who continue to bring in the same caliber of players even after their success and can't sustain being elite even though they are good and more like Florida who turned their big 2 years into 4 straight elite 8 trips and strong success on the recruiting trail with multiple 5 stars and 4 top 100 players last year.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:53 PM ^
I think your expectations are way too high. It's hard to make the Elite 8, let alone the Final 4. Every year? that's rediculous. Duke has rediculous talent and they lost in the first round last year. I think you need to go back and look at the Elite 8 teams over history and see how often teams get there.
Florida didn't turn their 2 championships into a great run, either. They didn't make the tournament for 3 years after they won back to back. They're just now making their way back into the conversation as an "elite" program, and they only have 1 Final Four from it. How are they doing this year?
Michigan will be fine. Beilein prefers players who will be around for a while, and all of the top players are more interested in getting to the NBA as quickly as possible. He's probably never going to get the top recruiting classes, but he's going to get everything he can out of those recruits. Sometimes that will be a ton of success, sometimes that will be less success.
January 29th, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
Your top programs tend to make the Elite 8 pretty often. Over the last 10 years, this is how many times these teams have made the Elite 8:
UNC - 6
Florida - 6
Louisville - 5
UK - 5
MSU - 4
UConn - 4
Kansas - 4
Those programs are making the Elite 8 just about every other year.
January 29th, 2015 at 8:12 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 2:19 PM ^
January 29th, 2015 at 2:22 PM ^
Was Gary Williams the guy who couldn't stop sweating on the sidelines? He always looked like he just got done running a 10k race in a suit and tie for some reason.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^
Yes. You'll never find a guy who coached more passionatley from the bench than him.
January 29th, 2015 at 2:54 PM ^
If you love him so much, why don't you marry him?
January 29th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^
tell the truth Mrs. Williams