B1G Basketball Tournament Seeding Simulator
I am sorry if this has already been posted but it is that time of year again. Simulate the seeding for the rest of the year. Of course it is more fun when there are more than two games but it looks like Michigan’s seed could change from the bottom to the top of the bracket depending upon how they do in the next two games. Go Blue!
BEAT IOWA
Down goes sparty! Incredible win tonight.
Michigan up to 28 in KenPom and Staee down to 40.
No team deserves to win the B1G less than Wisconsin. They get so fucking lucky. I mean 2 banked in shots in a row in a season where they barely win a bunch of games. I can't wait for them to blow it to a 15th seed in the tournament.
And their coach is an asshole.
Wisconsin will be the team that doesn’t make the Sweet 16
It took a little work, but I found a scenario where Michigan can get a double bye.
- Michigan win out
- MSU win at OSU
- Maryland win at MSU
- All other home teams win
Unlikely, but not impossible.
Just sign me up for whatever outcome gives us a rematch against Wisconsin.
Fuck…I sure would like to play Wisconsin in the early bracket.
Good work Kilgore Trout...I saw that too. Thanks to the B1G parity It's plausible with a win out we could still get a double bye.
On the flip-side if we lose out...we're out entirely.
Either way college basketball is awesome. Let's get an Iowa win, all house money after that.
At least that Purdue loss likely keeps us from playing the two Indiana teams back to back at the B10 tourney. That would be a tough pathway.
Beat Iowa.
I hate Wisconsin. They have always seemed to play a methodical, hyper aggressive bullshit style and get away with it and always hit lucky ass shit to win games.
Re: Jordan 2323
"hyper aggressive bullshit style"
I absolutely agree with methodical and bullshit style, but at least when they were under Bo Ryan, they never struck me as a hyper aggressive team. I don't pay enough attention now to know if Gard's style is much different, but under Ryan, they would slow the game down to an exceedingly frustrating pace. They would just keep passing the pall for the first 25 seconds of the shot clock, and then just bank a three pointer like it was nothing. It was an extremely frustrating style of game to watch. I believe Brian coined it best when he said once upon a time "Bo Ryan ruins basketball."
I honestly hate Wisconsin basketball more than I hate MSU or OSU basketball. OSU may be OSU, and Izzo may be a whiner, but there is no team in the Big Ten I want to punch more in its collective face than Wisconsin. Whether its them always finding a way to pull buzzer beaters out of their ass, Brad Davison, bad memories from watching Bo Ryan's "most boring show on Earth," just shooting the GD lights out against Michigan, or whatever it may be, they are the worst.
JH-B adds that Florida pipeline and JUICE to the recruiting room. Gainesville>AA is hopefully just as fruitful as the RO hire was years ago. (Young star who will create opportunities in FL) Him and shoelace going to be our Florida connect.
AK has added a ton of depth and resources to this department. A complete overhaul almost, and it's already starting to pay off.
MG and RB both going to play on the interior this season
JJ taking his game to another level
The hype is real on WJ, got to think he finds his way into the mix this year
Cheers
@Kilgore Trout - If OSU beats MSU, and we win out, we also earn a double bye if Iowa wins at Illinois and all the other home teams win.
@lilpenny
Good catch. I ran it with both Maryland beating MSU and Iowa beating Illinois and it works if either or both happen. So we need to win out, hope MSU gets it together at OSU and then get one or both of Maryland or Iowa pulling upsets on Sunday. Again, unlikely, but not impossible.
Another positive of this situation is that it would set up a potential BTT semifinal with Wisconsin which would be fun and keeps UM out of the same side of the bracket as Illinois.
@Ghost - finding your little nuggets in random threads is always a treat. Now if only I could figure out who half the initials are referring to I'd be in business! All sounds positive thought lol.
@Perkis-Size Me
@Jordan2323
In 2013(?) Wisconsin beat Michigan for the Big Ten Title (reg season) by banking in a three pointer. A sparty friend of mine sent me a message along the lines of "bad beat. i hate wisconsin, they're like the guy driving a moped on the freeway"
And ever since, MOPED ON THE FREEWAY is the way I describe Wisconsin basketball (recently extended to describe Iowa football)
@Kilgore Trout - A rematch would be must-see TV, but with B1G officials, the game will last four hours with all the fouls.
Upon reflection, I think the double bye matters less than avoiding Illinois. I think we can beat everyone else, including Wisconsin. Michigan seems to be particularly susceptible to how well they're hitting (or not hitting) threes.
Unlike most other teams, I think Michigan is still improving. Houstan, Collins, and Diabate are key.
After some playing around it looks like the highest we can get is a 4 seed and the lowest we can get is a 9 seed.
Is state at risk of getting left out if they lose the next two games??
Another great source for the seeding scenarios:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SRLgJVVd4wXJD6ltwgbZq96j5Y4nf0sIxrYOHCP0sNE/edit#gid=1923301980
512 possible scenarios left (*represents a tie with OSU that can’t be broken with the tiebreakers):
4 seed - 12.5% (64)
4/5* - 1.17% (6)
5 - 16% (82)
6 - 16% (82)
6/7* - 0.59% (3)
7 - 25.2% (129)
7/8* - 0.59% (3)
8 - 22.5% (115)
9 - 5.47% (28)
A win over Iowa changes these percentages to:
256 scenarios:
4 seed - 25% (64)
4/5* - 2.34% (6)
5 - 32% (82)
6 - 18% (46)
7 - 15.6% (40)
8 - 7.03% (18)
I'm not worrying about the double bye. Goal should be to be to finish #5 or #6 so that the first round game is a tuneup game, then 2nd round against 3 or 4 seed.
For those looking for some help re: GhostOfJermaine's post:
JH-B = Jonathan Herd-Bond, Asst. Recruiting Coord.
AK = Albert Karschnia, Recruiting Operations Coord.
MG = Mason Graham
RB = Rayshaun Berry
JJ = duh
WJ = Will Johnson
#BeatOhio
#BeatIowa
@maquih MSU is almost certainly (ie. 99+%) safe. They have an 11-9 Q1+Q2 record and no major red flags so it's all but a done deal.
Michigan, for comparison, is only 7-11 in that all-important metric.
Now, if they were to lose three games in a row by wide margins such that their quality metrics tanked and a bunch of teams stole bids, and a bunch of other bubble teams strengthened their resumes...never say never. They aren't a 100% lock, I suppose.
But, we're talking crazy long odds.
@stopthewnba
Wisconsin beat us twice on buzzer-beaters. The banked-in three (by Josh Gasser) at Crisler was in 2011. We weren't in Big Ten title contention but were on the NCAA tourney bubble and that loss looked like it could be extremely costly at the time (and prompted Brian to write a "DEATH TO BACKBOARDS" rant) though we made it through anyway.
Then in 2013 Ben Brust drilled a half-court shot to send the game into overtime in Madison, where we lost. We still had a shot to win the league title after that, but lost in the final minute to Indiana at Crisler.
@kookie
The Indiana teams seldom play well when the tournament is in Indy. It’s been there 11 times; IU is 4-11 (!), Purdue 7-10 (one title).
IU has lost its first game the last 3 times in Indy.