B10 West Scenarios
1) Iowa wins: Iowa
2) Iowa loses, Purdue wins: Purdue
3) Iowa loses, Purdue loses, Illinois wins: Illinois
4) Iowa loses, Purdue loses, Illinois loses: Iowa
Wisconsin v Minnesota outcome only changes which tie breakers come into play in scenarios 3 and 4 but, interestingly, has no impact on the B10 West representative.
November 21st, 2022 at 5:10 AM ^
Beat OSU
November 21st, 2022 at 5:45 AM ^
Fuggin’ Iowa.
November 21st, 2022 at 5:56 AM ^
I’m cheering for 4. Just because I think it would be funny to have the 4-way tie for 1st with all 3 teams 5-4 in conference.
Beat Ohio.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:08 AM ^
Scenario 3 is the 4 way tie. In Scenario 3 with a Minnesota win, the chaos is settled by the the 3rd tie breaker (division record: Illinois wins with a 5-1 record in the west division).
Scenario 1 with a Purdue loss and Scenario 2 are also strange in that you get an unshared title for a 3 conference loss team.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Yes, I meant Scenario 3. Thank you for the correction.
November 21st, 2022 at 5:59 AM ^
Wow. After how bad their offense looked earlier this year, I can't believe they'll get a rematch against us.
November 21st, 2022 at 6:09 AM ^
i wish the top 4 B10 west teams were were matched with each other on saturday for purposes of greater chaos and drama, but alas, they are all playing 'others' - nebraska, NW, wisconsin, etc.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
Iowa vs. Nebraska is on FRIDAY, so there may be absolutely no drama on Saturday.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:26 AM ^
I think all four teams should be forced to play each other at the same time. Like Chinese checkers (EDIT: which I just learned was invented in Germany. Fucking Germans, man).
November 21st, 2022 at 6:32 AM ^
Well, that is good news and bad news for Iowa fans. They might repeat as B1G West champions but they will continue to have Brian Ferentz as their OC.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:19 AM ^
If I’m an Iowa fan, I almost don’t want to win the division, because you know that Kirk and Brian are going to see that as further justification that what they are doing on offense works and shouldn’t be changed.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:31 AM ^
If I'm an Iowa fan, I definitely don't want to win the division. B1G West (or East for that matter) Champion and getting blitzed by the other Division champ doesn't mean anything to me, but it may be just enough for Ferentz to try to run this back next year. No Bueno
November 21st, 2022 at 9:07 AM ^
If I'm an Iowa fan, I want to win because Kirk will run it back regardless.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:01 AM ^
If I'm an Iowa fan, I make an appointment with a neurosurgeon.
November 21st, 2022 at 6:49 AM ^
UCLA <licks lips>
USC <cracks knuckles>
November 21st, 2022 at 7:02 AM ^
Divisions will likely be dissolved before they arrive though.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:42 AM ^
The divisions probably will be dissolved. But if we assume for a moment that they maintained divisions, Purdue gets bumped and it's possible the West Division (as bad as it is) loses its champion to the East.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:34 AM ^
Sucks Iowa v Nebraska is on Friday. They get a head start on buying B10 championship tickets if they win.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:52 AM ^
Haha, this guys thinks that Iowa fans want to see that offense again this year.
November 21st, 2022 at 7:45 AM ^
Iowa’s epic offensive ineptitude is somehow about to net them a B1G West crown. It’s really unbelievable. I went back and looked at their offensive output and found this particularly impressive.
This season the Iowa offense is averaging 8.6 point per game on drives starting in Iowa territory. In 11 games they have scored 95 total points when starting a drive in their own half of the field. 17 of those points came from drives starting at the Iowa 48 or 49 yard line as well, so it get worse if you look at the numbers from say behind their own 45 yard line.
But wait, it’s not their fault if their defense and special teams give them excellent field position, you say? Don’t worry. They are still bad. For the season their offense is averaging 14.5 ppg. In 4 of their 11 games their offense has scored 7 points of less. In 7 of their 11 games the offense has failed to pass 14 points. Only three times this season has their offense scored more than 20 points against Northwestern, Nevada, and Purdue.
This is peak Iowa.
November 21st, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
I just wanted to point out that most of their offense’s points against Purdue came from excellent field position. So that is the explanation for that outlier.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:06 AM ^
Friday
Nebraska at Iowa 4:00pm BTN
Saturday
Purdue at Indiana 3:30pm BTN
Minnesota at Wisconsin 3:30pm ESPN
November 21st, 2022 at 8:40 AM ^
At this point, you HAVE to think it’s got to be Iowa since Nebraska is just all kinds of awful. Iowa will probably only put up 70 yards of total offense but win 14-10 thanks to drives of 13 and 19 yards, set up by interceptions or fumbles.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:21 AM ^
You forgot the “Punting is winning” portion of the plan.
November 21st, 2022 at 12:56 PM ^
You're forgetting that, as a rule, whatever you think happens to the West...the opposite will happen.
Illinois seemed like a lock a few weeks ago considering they only needed to beat one team out of their next 3 games (MSU, Purdue, Michigan) to stay in control of their own destiny. So naturally they lost all 3.
Iowa looked like it was dead in the water after the way they started the year with a historically-awful offense (that, for the record, is still ranked 130 as of today), yet here they are controlling their own destiny for the division. And against one of the worst teams in the division to close it out. Which means...Nebraska might actually win lol.
November 21st, 2022 at 8:48 AM ^
Solid and concise analysis. Well done. Win The Game !
November 21st, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
While I greatly appreciate the breakdown, I am deeply sorry for you having to actually think about the BIG West standings.
PS- is it possible the BIG championship game wont sell out? I can't imagine that whoever ends up being in it, it is going to make for an appealing ticket?
November 21st, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Wut 'bout Northwestern???
November 21st, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
It doesn't really matter, but we probably should be rooting for Iowa. If they are 8-4 Big Ten West champs, they probably slip into the back end of the Top 25, which would be a Top 25 road win for us. If we somehow lose Saturday, it feels like the committee could point to Michigan "beating the Big Ten West champ handily on the road" as justification for keeping us in the top 4.
Yeah, yeah, just win on Saturday I know.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^
I'd like Purdue to win the West just for "educational" reasons.
Being that Michigan hasn't played the Boilermakers since 2017 (the one and only meeting since the 2012 season), an entire generation of young Michigan fans may doubt Purdue's very existence.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
I have a suspicion, that Nebraska's offense is going to play surprisingly well and pull of the upset of Iowa by double digits. This likely means Iowa is a lock to cover the spread.
November 21st, 2022 at 9:58 AM ^
So Iowa has a 50% (2 out of 4) chance of winning the division?
#YesIReallyWasThisBadAtStatisticsAtMichigan
#NoImNotSeriousHere
November 21st, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Considering we have not yet played Purdue this year, I am rooting for them.
November 21st, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
I think Iowa presents the fewest problems, would much rather play them than Illinois again, or the Spoilermakers.
November 21st, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^
Iowa controls their own destiny after looking like 3 day old vomit.🤷🏽♂️
November 21st, 2022 at 11:45 PM ^
Beat Ohio