Are we sure Harbaugh is staying?

Submitted by tah15 on December 26th, 2020 at 10:29 AM

1.) Harbaugh told recruits he was "committed" to Michigan; he did not say he was "staying." Of course, he's committed, and with no formal NFL offer until the end of the NFL season, he would not be lying. He has a Michigan extension on the table, which he'd probably take if nothing else is there, but with a pay cut and a mandate to change over his staff (particularly Don Brown), it's not inconceivable that he and Warde are just waiting for things to unfold. Warde must avoid the language of "firing" Harbaugh at all cost in order to get out of owing Harbaugh his final year ($6+ million). Harbaugh needs the extension for some baseline negotiating leverage with the NFL. So it always made sense to me why, if a head coaching change was preferred, Warde would be standing pat until now instead of just canning Harbaugh outright weeks ago as many were clamoring for. This would literally be the only way to let a former player legend go that the fanbase has mixed feelings about while also saving the University millions.

2.) Don Brown had to go no matter what, whether Harbaugh stays or goes. He and Warde are probably in agreement there, but usually assistant coaches are expected to offer their resignation to a new Head Coach who then decides whether to retain them or not. Other than Don Brown, Warde could be leaving the rest of the staff decisions to a new HC. Does that person really want to get rid of Warriner, for example? So it makes sense that Don Brown and only Don Brown would be let go at this point. Why that indicates that Harbaugh is staying is not clear to me. 

Anyway, is there something I'm missing? To me, all signs point to Harbaugh leaving every bit as much they point to him staying. 

Ibow

December 26th, 2020 at 11:48 AM ^

Every time this topic comes up, the chatter about this contract and that contract ensues. 

For the life of me, I can’t figure why the dollar amount for one contract or another is taken so seriously. Harbaugh has made millions over his lifetime. My thoughts are that it’s more about pride. He really doesn’t need the money. At all.

My gut tells me he really wants to stay at M and give it all he’s got but there’s always the fear of continuing in the current trend. Nobody wants to leave in a situation like this. Retreating and “saving face” by going to the NFL now would be, to some extent, admitting defeat.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out. I’m thrilled with the latest recruiting class. It seems like this bunch of kids are committed to M, are committed playing there and committed to each other - three very distinctive qualities we haven’t seen for the last couple of years. It’s like all these kids banded together and said, “Yeah, let’s go to M and do whatever we can to win some ball games.” No matter who the coaches are.

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mGrowOld

December 26th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^

I'm 61 and if I've learned one thing over those years it's that I'm not "sure" of anything anymore.  For example in the past year, I, along with 99.99% of the board and most of Vegas was SURE we'd beat MSU this year - the only question was by how much.   The expression "shit happens" was coined for a reason. I mean if somebody told me absolutely they were 100% SURE it would be dark tonight and bet me $100 that it would be I would still want to poke my head outside around 3:00am to check.

So no, not sure.  

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Robbie Moore

December 26th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^

I was sure Hillary would beat Trump.

I was sure Michigan would be Beilein's last coaching stop.

I was sure that COVID would be over last summer.

I was sure I'd win a Pulitzer one day.

I was sure my diet would have nothing to do with my weight.

I was sure the world would be better for my kids.

I was CERTAIN Harbaugh would return Michigan football to glory.

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and most certainly wrong.

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blue in dc

December 26th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^

Juwan Howard earned over 150 million over his career.    The bulk of that came vis the $105 million contract he signed in 1996.   In today’s dollars that contract alone would be worth over $170 million, so over his career he made over $200 million in today’s dollars.   It will take Duncan two really nice contracts to eclipse that total.

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MGoStrength

December 26th, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^

Steps have been taken to both allow JH to stay, such as DB leaving. And, steps have been taken to push JH out without firing him, such as a lower contract. Ultimately it appears we are negotiating. Negotiating is all about supply and demand, which won't be sorted out until NFL coaches and seasons are sorted out. At some point JH will decide between what he can get at UM, and compare that to what the NFL is offering, obviously taking into account his family, living preference, etc. So, it remains as up in the air as ever. We know UM will take him back. We also know UM is not pleased with the current status of the program, even if he's done enough to avoid being fired. That's about where we're at. 

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tah15

December 26th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^

This was the clarification I was looking for. There's so much recent stuff from the Detroit News, Free Press, and other outlets that operate under the assumption that Harbaugh is staying, that I was like, Am I going crazy? That doesn't seem at all clear yet.

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MGoStrength

December 26th, 2020 at 3:17 PM ^

I think people are reading tea leaves.  Prior to signing day and Browns supposed dismissal people assumed JH's job was in doubt.  Now that we saw a pretty good class sign and Brown has been purported to be let go, people assume that is a sign JH is staying and addressing the administration's demand to make some assistant coaching changes.  The only thing I think we know, and even this is still a bit of a guess, is a) JH will not be fired prior to the 2022 season (because he supposedly has been offered an extension) and b) they are not happy with the current state of the program (because the extension is lower than his current salary and only lasts 3 years).  Even this is reading tea leaves, but that's about all we've got.

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MGoStrength

December 26th, 2020 at 9:57 PM ^

I wonder about the benefit of trying to negotiate a (much?) Lower contract for Harbaugh.  That is a recipe for making him bitter. 

That's an interesting dynamic.  One the one hand, people gladly accept and even expect more if they do well.  But, they don't ever expect to get less if they do poorly.  If one removes their ego and simply looks at salary as a reflection of their most recent performance it makes perfect sense.  He was clearly paid more initially due to an expectation of more.  Since he's failed to meet those expectations, making less seems reasonable.

Don't think you want your coach thinking he got low-balled.

It all depends on his value elsewhere, which is essentially what we're waiting on.  It only seems like a low ball offer in comparison to his previous contract.  If he gets more from an NFL team, many are thinking this was the goal of the low offer in the first place, he either may take or use it as a negotiating tool to get more.  That's when we'll really see if Warde does in fact want him back.  If JH wants to stay, but gets a better offer, and asks UM to match it.  But, if he doesn't get any better offers then it's not really a low ball offer, it's just what he's worth now.  His perception of that is up to him, but this is market value at this moment based on performance.  Want to make more money, perform better.  I guarantee UM will give him a big raise if he wins 11 or 12 games and beats OSU the next few years when he's ready to start negotiating the next contract (assuming he accepts this one).

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Blue in St Lou

December 26th, 2020 at 11:15 AM ^

It hasn't yet been officially announced. If you look at the Michigan football news page, there's no announcement about Brown's departure: https://mgoblue.com/sports/football/archives. The news media reports of his firing cited unnamed "sources." But there's been no denial. One possibility is that they're negotating the terms of his departure.

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Don

December 26th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^

Are we sure Harbaugh is staying?

Yes.

The reason it's taking so long is that Jim Harbaugh approaches contract negotiations with the sloth-like alacrity that he approaches a two-minute drill with: take as much time as possible to do as little as possible.

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bfeeavveerr

December 26th, 2020 at 10:50 AM ^

I'm sure that I have seen enough of his regime as head coach at Michigan,to know that I would like to see him move on 

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