AP Ranking - the crystal ball - one year from today - Six B1G teams in the Top 10
I realize that polls really don't mean much, if anything, this time of the year. And, that we're one year away from the next version of the expanded B1G conference.
However, when looking into a "crystal ball" - and, theorizing that the teams which will be B1G members during the '24 season - would be ranked similarly to this season / week 3 AP poll - then, the B1G would have six (6) teams ranked in the Top 10. Those teams, with their AP ranking are as follows:
2 - Michigan
5 - USC
6 - Ohio State
7 - Penn State
8 - Washington
10 - Oregon
As the season progresses - conference games will result in losses and changes in rankings. I'm not suggesting or implying that the strength of the SEC will change, rather it would appear that for the time being - the B1G has a number of talented teams.
Obviously, there are players / leaders on several of those teams which, most likely, will not be part of their rosters next year. If there's depth and solid recruiting - perhaps this quality can be maintained.
P.S. - two other '24 B1G teams would be in the Top 25 - UCLA ranked 22nd and Iowa ranked 24th.
Do you have any thoughts / perspectives to share?
September 18th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
I think by 2026 the entire top 25 will be big ten teams.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
And MSU will still suck.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Conspiracy Theory: Seeing how badly MSU got killed by Washington you have to wonder if Mel Tucker leaked his own name. He knew he was going to get fired eventually for his actions, so why not leave before taking a string of 8-9 losses. Seriously only Nebraska, Minnesota and Rutgers are their only "lean win" games. He's probably never going to get anything other than an analyst position in the future, but being that he's an alleged sociopath, he probably thought he could keep his $95 million and avoid being permanently labeled a horseshit coach.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:07 AM ^
Respectfully, you are WAY off. If Tucker were to be employed by MSU at this season's end - he would "only" be due $ 76 million - if he were to be fired. The little understanding I have of the MSU Athletic Department and BOD, they might just do that - fire him, if the "situation" hadn't arisen.
September 18th, 2023 at 7:54 PM ^
That's now how these contracts worth. He's paid his salary on a monthly or biweekly basis and it can stop at any time, such as if he were hit by a bus or jettisoned into outer space. If he is fired for cause, his monthly payments stop the moment he's fired. He may get a negotiated payoff to go gently into that goodnight, but he's not entitled to another dime if he's fired for cause. No contract says if you make it past a certain date and then are fired because you murdered puppies and posted it on youtube, you'll still get your money.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
If Tugger were fired for losing he would still be owed all his contract money. If he's fired for sexual predation he might well get nothing, or at least far less than his full contract, in addition to being labeled a total creep. Why would he choose the latter?
September 18th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
He probably isn't smart enough to think that through. Honestly, look what got him in to trouble to begin with. He's not all there.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:48 PM ^
If Mel was smart enough to come up with that scheme..... he would have been smart enough to not get himself into the mess that he did.....
September 18th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
Man - I've read some ridiculous conspiracy theories but this one is up there. Tucker is not getting anywhere near another HC job any time in the near future, so I can't believe he'd prefer to leak his name now and give up a few extra weeks of a paycheck -- remember he's suspended without pay -- while he fights to avoid being fired for cause and getting $0. All so he can save his career record at 25-21?
September 18th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
There has been a lot of stupid things said in these walls and this is certainly one of them. If he got fired for on the field issues he gets his whole buyout. He no longer gets his whole buyout with this. Why exactly would he leak this?
September 18th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^
The only thing I agree is that Tucker knew he was a "horseshit coach," and they were gonna lose 8-9 games this season.
September 18th, 2023 at 3:00 PM ^
This is next level stupid, for more reasons than I care to itemize. Need a copy of your UM diploma please.
September 19th, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
A sociopath humiliates himself like that? You took a different Psych 101 than I did.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
The B1G west is weak. Next year, the new B1G West will be the Pac12.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Why didnt they just F-ING do that?!!??! that woudl have made complete sense.
Drop Rutgers and Maryland, Nebraska...
B10 EAST is basically the current big10 mainstays
B10 WEST is the pac12. That woulda been fantastic.
Let the SEC take the ACC. We split the B12.
Notre Dame plays Coast guard
boom. done.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
So we drop Nebraska, then split the B12 with the SEC. So... Nebraska ends up back in anyway?
September 18th, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
The MAC can have them...
September 18th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Pretty sure we've learned that it doesn't matter what nebraska does
September 18th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
4 of the 6 teams listed will have new QB's next year. No way to know the impact that will have.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
lol except apparently Caleb Williams dad said he might stay another year if he doesn't like the situation he would get drafted into.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
It's a shame that college football has eaten itself because the Pac-12 and the ACC look like they could have some great seasons this year. And ironically, they might be the strongest they've been in years. College football is stupid now.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Alternatively, college is football is more popular now than it has ever been. Average ratings have never been higher. NIL has shown it can keep star players in the game longer. Fans have shown they are going to tune in as much or more than ever.
All this griping about realignment is the same story we heard in previous rounds of realignment and the game has kept getting more and more popular since. We all complain, but history has shown we don't care about any of that nearly as much as we claim.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Average ratings have never been higher. NIL has shown it can keep star players in the game longer. Fans have shown they are going to tune in as much or more than ever.
I can only speak for myself, but I'm watching more games due to placing bets for those games. I'm sure it's not the main driving factor in average ratings, but I'm sure I'm not the only person watching games they would have otherwise not watched.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
I'm sure I'm not the only person watching games they would have otherwise not watched.
Moral of the story is you're watching more games amidst realignment. Regardless of the reason why, that's the important detail.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
Just out of curiosity, because I don't bet on games, why do you feel the need to watch a game just because you bet on it? Doesn't checking in on app do the same thing? Watching games that you bet on just seems like it would be torture.
September 18th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
I don’t bet on games, not legal in my state, but it seems it may be smart to watch as many games as you can to learn the teams. Watching after the bet doesn’t really help that but it would for the next week.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
There's a balance of data - and that reflects attendance (in person) and viewership.
It seems that the trend might be for Power conferences - particularly the B1G and SEC where attendance is strong - but, other conferences may not be realizing that strength in game attendance and relying more on media agreements for revenue.
I'm fearful that the ACC and Pac-12 in particular - will see declining attendance. Because people are looking at the cost of tickets - and improvements in media (large screen) convenience of watching at home.
The future is unclear to me, but - it wouldn't surprise me if in game attendance were to decline in the next few years.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
I definitely agree the PAC12 will see declining attendance.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
This seaon's OOC slate proves that realignment is great. More big matchups = more excitement = bigger TV ratings = a healthier sport.
To hell with sentimental BS. I'd be fine if we never played Maryland or Rutgers or Indiana again.
September 18th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Yeah, I mean we still love it but it's definitely not as great as it used to be or as good as it could be. I think it's going to be very weird over the next few years. And I wonder if schools might grow uncomfortable with the idea of super conferences that really only a few top teams have a chance at winning anyway. There used to be a balance and sensible regionalism to college football but that's gone. I'll still watch but it's disappointing that the sport has moved in a direction that killed off a great conference like the Pac-10/12, while it's having its best season in years. Meanwhile, the SEC - who I blame for the current and future state of college football - is not looking nearly as strong as it has been (hopefully I'm not wrong about that - it would be nice to have a non-SEC champion).
September 18th, 2023 at 9:11 PM ^
But aren't all sports now more popular than ever? I'm just going to guess that Americans watch way more sports that they did 30 years ago. I agree with the OP. College football is asymptotically getting shittier. It's going to essentially be the AFC and NFC next year, with almost the same scale of playoffs. Even worse than the NFL, playoff games won't even be on home fields, they'll be in shit-ass corporate stadiums. The other conferences can just double for the USFL, CFL, and NFL Europe.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:32 AM ^
Except if they go to all Big Ten type schedule and have no out of conference opponents (cup cakes) then some of the top teams may have already played and beaten each other, dropping them in the polls.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
Is that on the table?
That would be tough but would make so much more sense than playing silly non-cons.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
From what I understand, these are some of the discussions (maybe not next year).
Also one less regular season game to allow for playoffs.
With 2 protected rivals, and 11 regular season games, that's 9 other teams a season, so you would play 1/2 the conference every year roughly. That way everyone gets to play each other more often.
They may/may not allow for one non-conference.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Seems if they would go to purely conference games (ie no easy non conference), they should then setup some type of preseason game. It would be nice to be able to figure some things out without it meaning a possible loss.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
A 12 game conference schedule means 6 home games every year. Most AD financial models require 7 or 8 home games a year.
Also think of the financial impact on all of the local business. Losing 1 - 2 extra home games every year is a huge hit to all of the hotels, B&B's, restaurants, etc.
For a Michigan/Ann Arbor or OSU/Columbus maybe it doesn't impact as much if it is made up with home playoff games, but that won't work for the majority of schools who can not rely on hosting a playoff game on a regular basis.
September 18th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
You are projecting past financial arrangements into the future. Who knows what revenue sharing they are discussing? Are Oregon USC Washington really going to be OK seeing Michigan once every 4 years? Home ticket sales may be a small part of the equation in the future. I don't think they care that the local business loses a home game or two.
September 18th, 2023 at 9:31 PM ^
The way Harbaugh has this team going, I’m guessing most of the Big Ten would be fine playing Michigan once every four years.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
Maybe I’m an outlier here, but I wish Utah was one of the teams joining the B1G.
Oregon, UW, and USC are going to live and die by the ability to get a QB that can power their explosive offenses.
Utah seems to have a more sustainable offensive system and a defense that can help bail out the offense when needed. I think they’re going to be consistently at the top of the new Big 12.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
agreed I’d love to have Utah along with Cal and Stanford
basically, all the PAC-12 except the Arizonas, WSU, OSU and CU (though I’d take them cuz why not nothing makes sense with realignment)
September 18th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
USC, sure, we know Lincoln Riley's defects. And DeBoer's track record is big-time offense, although he hasn't been in a position to recruit like he can at UW (already a DB factory). But I wouldn't bet against Dan Lanning building a defensive powerhouse at Oregon.
September 18th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
This is why I'm not in favor of an expanded playoff. There are just too many damn teams. At the end of the year, there will be a champ and 1 to 2 other teams that you can argue are just as good, but had a bad game or lost a key player... That's it. We don't need 1/3rd of the league in the CFP.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:02 AM ^
100% agree. Have teams play everyone in their conference and pick the best two teams to play in a championship. If you need to have a one game playin so be it, but a huge playoff misses the point of college football. Otherwise you end up with a dogshit regular season with everyone playing patsies.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:17 AM ^
Agree completely. The expansion of the playoff has all but rendered the value of a Conference Championship moot. I can easily see the following - the top two teams / division winners - from a major conference (especially, the B1G and SEC) - will be in the CFP - regardless of whether they win or lose their CCG. The only question will be - seeding.
My fear is - the changes are impacting the sport I really enjoy - in a negative way. Lack of controls and standards in NIL and the Transfer Portal. Changes in rules to reduce the length of games and increasing media timeouts / commercials. Seemingly never ending conference realignment / cannibalization. The game I grew up with doesn't look anywhere near what it once did.
I wish the CFP had expanded to eight (8) teams instead of 12 - but, my opinion doesn't matter.
Regarding Transfers and NIL - I'm supportive of the players. But, I wish there were actually enforceable guidelines and standards. This isn't all on the NCAA - but, they need to accept a degree of responsibility.
September 18th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Have teams play everyone in their conference? So, we're going to have a 17-game regular season schedule?
September 18th, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Is Colorado the presumed #1? /s
September 18th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
My perspective about Colorado has been "I don't have a horse in the race." And, that really hasn't changed.
I will admit to staying up late and watching the Colorado v CSU football game.
As for this season - hmmm, the next two weeks will tell a lot about Colorado - as they travel to Oregon this weekend - and host USC in Boulder on September 30th.
Grab your popcorn!
September 18th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I’m looking forward to the new 2024 schedule release
September 18th, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
The entire schedule hasn't been released, however - the teams Michigan will play next ('24) season is available. The home games are finally looking attractive - with Texas, UCLA, Wisconsin, and MSU. The list of games follows:
Home games
- Fresno State
- Texas
- Arkansas State
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Minnesota
- UCLA
- Wisconsin
Away games:
- Illinois
- Rutgers
- USC
- Ohio State