5 new UM athletics covid cases
Positive tests we can live with. Let's not have any hospitalized or dying.
Wait, did UM have an athlete die?
Is it possible that these "new" cases are just some of the positives from last week that are still self isolating?
In this fake counting game, anything is possible.
A few callers to WJR who had tested positive and then retested made the claim that they were counted more than once. Just repeating what was said.
Or here in Florida where my wife's good friend tested positive when she didn't even get a test. Also when we do hear of someone we know who tested positive, they are always without symptoms. We keep hearing of positive tests for the NBA or MLB folks, but they never say anything about their symptoms or lack thereof. They just say that they need two negative tests in a row to get back to playing. The vibe I'm getting here in FL is that while we keep hearing about positive tests, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of sick people.
Except for the 9400 people in the hospital for covidhttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/dod-is-scouting-contractors-to-set-up-potential-mobile-coronavirus-hospitals-in-florida-as-outbreak-worsens.html
or the over 500 people who’ve died in the last 4 days.
Yes but what was questioned was the numbers. You are presenting numbers for which it is really hard to rely on. Are these 9400 all covid patients? Are all 500 deaths really from covid? At this point after living here for 20 years, it is hard to have confidence in the "system" and rely on these numbers. They can't count ballots, and now we have people testing positive for which there was no test given. There were also places that were only counting positive tests in the total tests administered.
I know nurses that work in the local hospitals here and they said the ICU's were filling up from non-covid patients when they opened things back up for people that were sick and needed hospital care for something other than covid. Again, after weighing all of this and talking with front line folks, and just getting the vibe of what is really going on here in Florida, the media has way overhyped what is really going on.
My two boys have been playing in travel baseball tournaments for the last 2 1/2 months down here (every weekend) and there are a lot of teams playing each weekend (sometimes 160 teams per weekend) and I have not heard of one player or parent testing positive. I have not heard of one instance of it running thru a team. I'm not saying it doesn't exist and I'm not saying it isn't a horrible thing for those that it seems to really impact, but what I'm seeing isn't lining up with what the media is reporting and the numbers that are reported.
If hospitals are following Florida guidelines, the 9400 only includes people with a primary diagnosis of Covid
The Agency for Health Care Administration, or AHCA, also tells Florida hospitals in its data reporting guidelines dated April 19 to exclude from official COVID hospitalization numbers people who tested positive for the coronavirus but are being treated for other medical issues — even heart attacks and strokes, which are two conditions that can be associated with complications from the disease.
More detailed data would help researchers and public health experts understand the spread of the virus, especially by analyzing trends in areas such as hospital admissions and ICU volume. But AHCA shares only how many people are hospitalized with COVID-19 as a primary diagnosis, by county. The agency began sharing that information on July 10 after pressure from public health experts.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/07/25/florida-collects-more-data-on-covid-19-hospital-patients-than-it-shares-with-the-public/
I suspect that hospitals would not be looking for 2400 extra nurses if they weren’t having some sort of problem. https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/07/25/florida-collects-more-data-on-covid-19-hospital-patients-than-it-shares-with-the-public/
Since non-elective procedures were cancelled as of July 8, I’m guessing that is not the cause.
With regards to deaths, there is plenty of evidence that if anything, the state is undercounting Covid deaths not over counting them.
A look at the past six months in Florida shows why health experts are increasingly concerned about death toll numbers here. Between January to June 30, Florida reported 8,671 excess deaths, that’s more than double the 3,650 deaths the state attributed to COVID-19.
Dr. Troy Quast is a health researcher at the University of South Florida. He said the increase in the excess mortality rate during this time is a sign the state may be underplaying the virus and its death toll on Florida.
“It does leave you thinking there might be more investigation needed,” he said.
Not to upset anyone, but thats a very minor excess death toll. Great news. Look at fluctuations from flu--worse than average years arent significantly different than what you are showing.
I must be doing the math wrong (or we have a different perception of not significantly different).
http://www.flhealthcharts.com/charts/DataViewer/DeathViewer/DeathViewer.aspx?indNumber=0125
Flu deaths in Florida from 2000 to 2019 in the link. Worst year: 2000 - 3336 deaths. Best year: 2010 - 2217 deaths. Difference of less than 1200 between worst and best years. Obviously average year would be less. Not going to waste my time calculating the average but I’m gonna guess the average difference is going to be somewhere between 400 and 800. So 8600 hundred excess deaths is more than a factor of 10 greater than you’d see in a bad flu year.
doing it wrong--need to compare excess deaths during flu season v excess deaths during covid. they are surprisingly similar in all parts of country not ny or nj.
Guess we’ll all just have to take your word for that since you haven’t bothered to show any work to back up your assertion. Since the variation in flu death data for Florida Is only about 1200, it is hard to see how excess deaths from a bad flu season could approach 8000.
Here's the thing though: Simply not dying from COVID doesn't always mean a positive outcome. People are getting amputations and lung transplants because of this, but yes, they live, so it's all good? No thanks.
The death figures our fabricated as well! There is proof everywhere!
Can we stop with these friggin lies? It's always the same "my friends sister" / "my husband's buddy" etc.
Yes, there are some issues with the statistics, a big one being they report positive tests, which could be the same individual that was tested 3 times over a ten day span and tested positive each time.
But the above is simply not true and is just twitter garbage. This would be all over the news if it even had a hint of being true. We've got Sinclair Broadcasting that wants to play a debunked conspiracy theory that Dr. Fauci created covid to kill millions of people. We've got Fox News pushing a narrative that 'Q' is real and that there is a 'deep state cannibal' ring. And even THOSE networks won't run with this garbage take of "my friend's nephew" testing positive even though they were never administered a test.
I'll take it even one further; I'm close with a few local news directors that would LOVE to have their lead story be about someone getting a positive test without ever being tested. If they are willing to share their details, we can definitely get them setup for an interview so they can share this travesty with the world.
There are a ton of people with covid who are sick in Florida. My hospital has to redirect patient floors and vents it us getting so overloaded
Every day Michigan reports significantly more positive tests than new cases, so they must have a system in place to not count people twice.
Looks like good news.
The 1.8% positive rate is much lower than the 2.9% rate for the rest of Washtenaw County.
The athletic teams don't appear to be spreading infection among themselves through training and practice activities!
You can't really compare the two rates. Most Washtenaw residents have never been tested - those who go in for a test are mostly a self-selected sample - while I'm assuming that all U-M athletes on campus have.
It is a low rate though, and that's good to see.
Granted, there are problems with the testing metrics, but sadly, it is all we have to go on.
CDC is saying minimum of 10X the number of cases than positive tests in the population.
If we assume that's true, then, even with the self selection bias in the WC numbers, the low testing positivity rate produced from 100% testing of all athletes and coaches looks pretty darn good.
It's probably safer to be a Michigan football player at practice right now than Joe Blow going to Meijer or Whole Foods in Ann Arbor. Hopefully that trend holds!
We'll know more come September if and when students return to campus.
I assume we'll have wide scale testing in the dorms, etc. Comparing these football player numbers to those of the general student body will really tell us sometime.
The title of the study the article cited is “Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020”. For much of that time we were testing well under 200,000 people per day. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111601/covid-19-tests-carried-out-daily-in-the-us/ We are now testing close to 800,000 people on many days. It is not entirely clear to me why those numbers would hold.
And we are closing in on a million tests per day. Yesterday, over 900,000 tests were performed.
My wife just tested positive for COVID, and I'm going to get tested today. Thankfully, her symptoms are nothing more than a temp in the 99s and a mild sore throat. Based on hospitalizations and deaths, it does seem that the virus is becoming less potent as time goes on.
Hope everything goes smoothly for you all.
I hope all goes well for you.
I'd caution you that we are not seeing evidence that the virus is less potent. The mix of people testing positive has become much younger. The percentage of serious cases has gone down as more vulnerable people have taken greater precautions to avoid exposure.
I don’t necessarily disagree, but a few points on that:
1. While the mix of people testing positive is becoming much younger we don’t know if the mix of people who ARE positive is any different than April. Back in April and even May, testing was extremely limited and was being rationed to some extent, such that if a relatively healthy 32 year old came in with mild or no symptoms, they didn’t get a covid test. Now that same person can get tested. I suspect that the mix of people with covid is relatively similar over the General US population but we are just detecting positives in asymptomatic and younger people now because of the prevalence of available testing.
2. The same holds true with respect to more serious cases. I think that in April and May, the less serious cases simply weren’t detected because there was limited testing and unless someone was seriously ill, the guidance was to stay home and ride it out (because of hospital capacity concerns, fear and limited testing and treatment options). Again, we are now picking up those less severe cases.
3. Your point about the more vulnerable people taking precautions, however, is a good one. Going forward, because we know so much more about who is most vulnerable to a bad outcome from this disease, my hope is that public policy shifts from “shut down everything and lock down for as long as it takes” (which is just not sustainable, both economically and socially, because our society is built in social interaction and being close to each other) to taking extra measures to prevent the most vulnerable amongst us from the disease. While it is true that younger, healthier people will die from this disease, the same is true of flu and a host of other diseases that we have lived with for years. We will have to live with that as we have lived with healthy people dying of diseases for over a century. However, The overwhelming majority of covid deaths are in the elderly or those who have a defined set of pre-existing conditions. If we better protect those people, we could see a lot of people test positive for covid, but the death numbers decline significantly over time.
Yeah, I think it's likely that we missed a huge number of positive people back in the spring when testing was limited.
According to the official hospitalization data (scroll down for the breakdown), on April 12 Michigan had 22,700 known active cases in Michigan and 3,986 in the hospital, for a hospitalization rate of 17.56%. Yesterday we had 14,600 known active cases, but just 481 hospitalized, for a rate of just 3.29%.
It's possible there is some seasonal effect with the virus here (people getting more vitamin D, spending less time crowded indoors, etc.), but this is such a dramatic decline in the hospitalization rate that it seems very likely that a lot of people flew under the radar back then and that we're getting closer to finding the real number of infected people now.
If the current rate of hospitalization is the "true" figure for the virus, then we should have had about 120,000 active cases on April 12.
How to get points on MGoBlog: Be long-winded and sound halfway reasonable for most of the post. Number of words is apparently equated with wisdom.
You're really good at that.
It's a decent post IMO except for a few points:
my hope is that public policy shifts from “shut down everything and lock down for as long as it takes”
Nice straw man there (dog whistle, too). Even in the bluest of states there's never been a full "lockdown." Where the dogs have been fully let out (Arizona) there have been case spikes.
(which is just not sustainable, both economically and socially, because our society is built in social interaction and being close to each other)
You seem to be suggesting that some have argued that such a state is sustainable. Very few people, if any, have done that.
to taking extra measures to prevent the most vulnerable amongst us from the disease.
Risk for COVID-19 isn't binary. Underlying risk profiles aren't 0/1 and the dose someone gets immediately after their first exposure appears to influence the course.
While it is true that younger, healthier people will die from this disease, the same is true of flu and a host of other diseases that we have lived with for years.
Ah, you mentioned the flu. Of course. In case anyone had to guess about your politics. It's OK. You'll probably be fine if you get it. Most of us will. Just be smart and honest.
And people wonder why the 'rona is such a political football.
If the origin one had not called this a Democrat hoax in February and acted as someone with ahhh very large brain, this would not be politicized.
He did laterr begin saying things like that after the Democrats decided to care about covid, but do not forget when he was taking action early on to protect this country and was labeled a bigot by many democrats for doing so. All politicians at the national level, Republicans and Democrats, have completely lost their shit over this. It is safe to say at this point that all of them speak of covid for only one purpose and it has nothing to do with public health....
Stop this. He took no action. He banned chinese nationalists. Not people coming from China. And the shit was coming from Europe at that point. Stop this. You are wrong.
UT OH HE SAID FLU NOW I TRIGGERED
I’m not going to respond to all of the personal attacks - not worth engaging in an internet pissing match - but just one question: how does my comparing covid to the flu indicate my politics? Is flu code for Democrat or Republican? The comparison is apt: both are viral, both are highly transmissible, both have a mortality above zero and below 2% and both tend to be harder and more fatal for those who are already compromised. What am I missing? Seriously - I honestly don’t understand how saying “flu” is political.
1. The number of high risk people is not small. This analysis suggests it is over 92 million people. (About 38% of those over 18). 41 million of those are between 18 and 64. About 1 in 5 in that age category.
2. At least part of the lower number of deaths we are seeing is almost certainly due to improved treatment options: remdesivir and dexamethasone.
3. Multiple hospitals are in fact reporting that they are seeing more younger patients. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/hospitals-rise-younger-admissions-covid-19-raising-doctors/story?id=71775378
This is misleading. The death rate has gone down because of a change in demographics among those tested, which is consistent with what you say. But it’s also gone down across all demographics because of the things people are doing to take precautions which significantly reduces the initial viral load. High death and hospitalization rates are highly correlated to the initial viral load. If you have a high initial viral load the immune system has less of a chance to build up it’s defenses when the virus is multiplying exponentially. And all the things people are doing to reduce transmission, which includes washIng hands, wearing masks, social distancing, reduce the viral load.
Second, what you completely missed is that even though younger people have lower death rates, there is evidence of significant long term damage to the body across all demographics for those that survived both in and out of the hospital.
The virus has been here for like 4 months. There can be no evidence of “long term damage.” It is a literal impossibility to have any such evidence. That is fear-mongering.
Drs are seeing evidence of damage to: lungs, heart, central nervous system, kidneys and blood clotting issues. Obviously we don’t know if all of these will be long term issues because we don’t have long term data, but to be concerned that when you are seeing damage to such a wide variety of organs their could be long term damage does not seem like fear-mongering to me. It seems like a pretty legitimate concern.
Best wishes to you and yours.
Does she have any idea how she contracted the virus?
So rather than saying, "Dear, not tonight as I have a headache", she can do the, "Dear not tonight, as I tested positive"
Hope she gets well soon, and that all stays well with you and your family.
It is 100% not becoming less potent over time--if you understand how coronaviruses mutate and spread it would be nearly impossible for a less potent strain to outcompete.
Mutations of viruses do not compete to kill more people, they compete to infect more people. Viruses can absolutely mutate to become less lethal. A mutation that was more infectious but less lethal would almost certainly out compete a strain that was less infectious but more lethal.
Hopefully, this will be kept at a minimum. U of M athletics is being transparent, good for them.
As long as they don't let students from CA, AZ, TX, and FL return to campus, we should be good to go for football!
AZ cases are dropping exponentially.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/24/us/coronavirus-arizona.html?referringSource=articleShare
Arizona is an interesting case. On the one hand those in favor of less restrictions can argue that the State seems to have really slowed down the spread of the virus without a full lockdown. On the other hand, those who think restrictions are important can argue that mask mandates and restrictions on some of the activities most likely to cause transmission of the virus are very important.
Also important to consider whether those results could be repeated in a more dense area (Phoneix has a population density of under 3200 per square mile).
I would like to be in that bubble. 18.6 positive in collier county Florida where I live