2010 QB Controversy?
Hello Everyone.
I was recently discussing/prognosticating about U-M's upcoming season with some friends, and a frightening scenario came up in conversation, a scenario that i think we all need to be prepared for.
Scenario:
M goes 6-6/7-5 with Tate playing most of the year and Denard seeing snaps here and there; but Tate does not really impress and is mostly just adequate while he relies on the running game. M loses to OSU, ND, and MSU, amongst other foes.
In this case will we see a wide open QB race next fall/spring with Gardner/Forcier being the main players? What would it take for Tate to crush doubt about him being the starter in 2010?
I am merely trying to keep Mgoblog active and in check. Cautious optimism is great; but we also have to be prepared for suckage, just in case.
I don't think 6-6 or 7-5 with Tate at the helm will be considered a down year by any means. I think that's all that realistically should be expected this season. Afterall, he's only a true freshman. You start Gardner next year and you'd probably get the same results.
Well, I don't think anyone genuinely expects Forcier to be Jesus. It's a joke.
Realistically, he's likely to complete about half his passes, throw about as many interceptions as touchdowns, and only run for maybe 300-400 yards on the season. He's a freshman, and Devin Gardner will be a freshman in 2010, so I don't think people will expect him to be better, especially with his lack of polish as a passer.
Unless Denard's way more poised as a thrower than we think, I think we're going to see at least two years of Tate with sprinklings of Denard as a change of pace. After that, Gardner's greater physical upside might allow him to contend for the job (his RS freshman/ true sophomore year, Tate's junior year) but more likely Tate and Denard rule the roost for four years.
I'm just trying to prepare people for the possiblity that everything will not be black and white. If Tate makes some dumb mistakes that cost turnovers/games, the fanbase will start to get pissed/anxious. The freshman "excuse" will get old quick.
I'm not convinced that the "freshman excuse" will get old that quickly since we have clearly adjusted expectations then the average year. Nobody is expecting a Big Ten championship this year (and if someone is, they should wake up) but what I personally want to see are signs that RR's offense will not only be functional, but as successful as it was at WVU, Clemson, and Tulane. I think that Tate can provide that.
that he was not the quarterback best suited to run this team, I think that many people here expected Steven Threet to at least be the starter for the first few games this fall, predominantly due to a few bouts of competence (Penn State first half, Illinois first half). If Threet would have been the front-runner in 2009 based on what really was a poor 2008, I can only imagine how badly Tate would have to perform not to be the incumbent starter in 2010.
What would it take for Tate to crush doubt about him being the starter in 2010?
Beat Ohio State.
touche, salesman.
I was not trying to be contrarian. Sorry if it came off that way.
If Tate beats OSU, I would have to assume he would also be good enough to win 6 or 7 games total. Which would erase nearly all doubts about him starting in 2010. IME
Not contrarian at all.
It was a great point that I have to agree with, which is why in my op I mentioned losing to all 3 big rivals. I'm just suprised at how many people bank on Tate as being the savior. It's a little frightening.
I'm not really one of those people. I don't think Tate will win 9+ games this year. And I find it hard to imagine he will beat OSU. I was submitting what I thought Tate needed to do in order to quell speculation about who would start in 2010. I know its a stretch of the imagination, but if Tate were to win the OSU game, I don't think there would be any question that he would be the MAN.
If Tate beats Ohio State, he will be carried out of Michigan Stadium kind of like this. The goodness starts at 1:05
that was a great video.
all hail the Floyd of Rosedale!
Only Iowa would play anyone for a fake pig.
Only Iowa would play anyone for a fake pig.Doesn't Iowa play Wisconsin for a pig, too? I'm referring to the Heartland trophy. Does that one depict a pig or a grazing bull? My memory is failing me here--with such trivial trivia.
They play for a bull. That trophy's only a couple of years old. It's dumb.
If they carry him off like that I hope they leave him in one piece.
Showing competency in running the offense at a major college level should be enough for both Robinson and Forcier to be ahead of Gardner and Jones next year. I'm just happy they will have enough bona fide spread option QB's to fill the depth chart next year, barring unforseen circumstances.
I think one of the consequences of the double-edged sword known as the internet is that it is difficult for both fans and the recruits themselves to imagine any star recruit spending a couple of years on the bench like they used to. We now have so much access to information and highlight videos of recruits that many of us visualize them playing the minute they set foot on campus.
I'm not saying the poster is doing this by any means, but the excitement of Gardner's commitment and his camp highlight video was enough that many fans have already forgotten about Forcier and Robinson before they have ever played a down for UM.
I'm looking forward to seeing the QB situation stabilize to a point where even the gaudiest of recruits doesn't start until he is a junior. As much as I disliked seeing high-caliber QB recruits disappear on the UM depth chart, never to be seen again, it would be an indication that the program is back where it belongs when it happens again.
And it wouldn't bother me in the least if Gardner ended up like a healthier version of Auquan Boldin.
It's impossible to say what Forcier can do to close the door against competition. There are way too many factors to consider.
The extremes:
If Tate throws for 300 yards and runs for 100 yards every game, but we go 0-12, he probably keeps the job (because the defense would probably be really shitty).
If we go 13-0, but Tate throws for 100 yards a game and runs for 20, he probably keeps the job (because he's playing well enough to win).
It also depends on the development of Robinson and Gardner. You could come up with 1,000 different scenarios for the next season or two to play out. I know you're just speaking hypothetically and trying to talk about football-related topics; I just don't find it incredibly useful to think about something that could easily go 100 different ways.
Many fans are reactionary assholes.
If Tate struggles, and loses to 2 of of MSU, OSU, and ND, there will be a vocal contingent demanding his most readily available backup. This is true of every sport, at every level, ever. Remember whem people were clamoring for Justin Feagin?
haha. Yeah I remember. I did not demand Feagin be inserted into the lineup. I never argued seriously that he should have. But during some of the games I do remember thinking "Threet cannot RUN or THROW. At least Feagin can RUN"
That was purely an emotional response to our sucktitude. Rationally I understood and supported RR's decision to stay with Threet.
Yeah I remember reading about the secret weapon. I was really expecting to see him in the ND game based on how many were talking him up before the game. Even after the game I was looking forward to his what sounded like inevitable debut.
Well, considering the play of Sheridan and banged-up Threet, wanting to see what Feagin was capable of was a somewhat rational thought, no?
Rational thought? yes.
But you probably did not jump to the conclusion that Rich Rod was "OMG retarded!" and should start Feagin or die.
Well, I think that people should have understood that RR was avoiding playing Feagin like he had herpes for a reason. He's not stupid - he saw the level that Threet and Sheridan played at - if Feagin were vaguely at the level, he would have been on the field.
All we need to know about Feagin's ability to play QB should be summed up in this fact:
Down by 30+ to OSU in the 4th quarter, Feagin played the final 3 series of the game. Despite the impossibility of our likelihood of winning shrinking RR and MacGee STILL refused to allow Feagin to thrown the football.
People wanted to replace Henne with Mallett IIRC; I remember talk that Mallett was so good he should be given some of Henne's senior year snaps before Henne got injured.
Also, what the hell are the first 6 Rubrics?
I will admit that there was a time that I wanted to see Mallett play. It was sometime during the second quarter of the Oregon game. That was by far my lowest moment as a Michigan fan (my first two games at the Big House were App. State and Oregon. Yay), so please don't judge me.
Then Henne went out and had manly performances against Illinois, Michigan State, and Florida, and now he is my darling again. Yes homo
You were not alone. At least 75% of the student section was chanting "We want Mallett." Henne made being a successful QB look easy, which combined with his relatively quiet demeanor had fans forgetting how great his accomplishments were for those first 3 years. The sad truth is that a lot of people think that it's like a video game, where you can just throw in a freshman and his ratings mean he'll be ok (same applies for recruiting). I'm just glad Henne reminded the fanbase of what we should have kept in our minds; he was/is a great QB who fought through injury to lead Michigan to success.
Yeah, Henne really redeemed himself throughout that season. His arm basically fell off against Illinois and he still made some fantastic throws. That, plus the comeback against Michigan State and the fantastic bowl performance (Michigan is the only non-SEC team to beat Florida since Dec. 31st, 2004) and Henne really solidified himself as one of the best ever at Michigan
I haven't created them yet. This sounded better.
Beware those reactionary assholes may be calling for Feagin this year.
I would be surprised if we did not have a clear starter at QB by the end of the season. We had one last year in Threet (with some haziness lingering) and we went 3-9. If Tate emerges as the starter, the chance of Denard beating him out in the off-season is slim, but there is a chance. The probability that Gardner as a true freshmen will beat out whomever emerges as the starter this year is too low to consider. The battle will be between Tate and Denard for this season and next. After those two seasons you can start to put Gardner (or Jones) into the mix, but it will probably be another year still before Gardner or Jones has a realistic shot at taking over.
Thus, for years to come I foresee competition at the qb position that is typical and propitious - two quality qbs battling for the starting position. I don't foresee anything too aberrant.
With his height and physical size there will be some calls next year for Gardner to get a shot at starting. That would be nice, but the most likely reality is this:
2010: Tate/Denard starts, Gardner RS
2011: Tate starts, Gardner mixes in as other QB, gets some action in a few mop up games (assumingwe have some). Denard is now a WR.
2012: Tate is a SR and the clear QB, Gardner is in a few series every game + a few trick plays + any injuries + mop ups... This is the season where you could see a Tebow like true QB tandem if in fact both QBs have deleveloped to the point where it is a shame to not play both.
2013-2014: these two years will see Gardner, with a RS and game experience under his belt. He will be strong and well coached at this point. He should have excellent seasons and command the offense.
This is mostly the reality. Tate should be good, and I am high on his game IQ, etc. But RR will be working on Gardner to get him prepared for these two years. These will be our first big shots at the big time.
....i think either Gardner is one of the finest QBs to come into college football in years, OR....
we all will have a lot to be concerned about with our 2010 QB situation.
"With his height and physical size..."
...as opposed to mental size?
about his measurable intangibles.
...and also quickness.
Discussing the cons of Devin Gardner.
CONS:
- Holds Ball Too Long
- Hesitates
- Top End Speed
- Questionable Vision
- Accuracy Issues
- Sidearm
- Doesn't seem to have breakaway speed
"When I said that he hesitates I meant the he will start to run into a hole and then run out of it."
MichMan419 June 17th, 2009. 7:39 PM
Much more interested in the QB battle in '11-12. But if Denard isn't the starter or backup QB he will not be a WR, he'll be a CB.
Yes, I'm pulling a Lee Corso on you. If Denard switches positions b/c we have acceptable depth at QB, he will play slot a la Percy Harvin. He is special with the ball in his hands and RR wont let that go to waste. Its also easier for a QB to switch positions on offense as opposed to defense. There's too much of a learning curve.
You're speaking pretty definitively for someone who has never seen Denard Robinson play wide receiver in his life. Furthermore, many teams recruiting Denard wanted him to play corner, not QB or WR. So you're immediately jumping to the position for which he was third-most recruited.
true...but it'd be a shame to not have Denard lining up all over the place, a la Harvin. A big play guy is what every championship team needs.
for someone who doesn't know me. I havent seen him play a game at WR but I did witness him lining up at WR and DB at the Friday Night Lights Camp in Gainesville last year. IMO he was far more impressive at wideout than corner. My cousin was being recruited by the Gators and I went down there last year and it was an impressive camp. I realize its hard to judge a camp from a game but you can still form an honest opinion.
Then I apologize for saying you've never seen him play WR in your life; you're probably the only person on this board who has seen that.
Regardless, saying he "will" play WR is pretty presumptuous.
and maybe I shouldn't have used that. A strong chance he becomes a WR would've been more appropriate. Anyway, no harm here. I enjoy reading your opinions and clearly you have a good understanding of football, amongst other things. Keep up the good work (I check out your blog weekly).
Gracias, senor.
I believe he learnt this during Carr's last game when Tebow was overshadowed by Harvin running all over the place. IMHE Harvin > Tebow. Not that Tebow isn't good but Harvin was special - he was hurt though.
We need about 3 Pat Whites to avoid '07 WVU vs. Pitt. Gardner is #1. Denard is a WR/DB. Tate is Febreze, people.
I think 3 freshmen QB's in a row would not help Michigan. Tate may not be phenomenal but the whole "extra year in the system" which everyone cites as a huge experience benefit (as do I) would definitely give him an edge over Gardner. He'll be in better shape going in to 2010, but if Gardner is Vince Young II then he'll get the job.
Vince Young I redshirted his freshman year.
He alternated time with Chance Mock his RS freshman year.
He beat Michigan his RS sophomore year.
He won the National Title his junior year.
I meant if he plays like the Vince Young (I) that we all know and *cough* love.... Should have blocked the damn field goal....
The Best Players Will Play, and that includes the players giving UM the best chance to win.