19/32 1st rounders did not have a Michigan offer
I feel like M is doing a good job with the talent ID if they offer guys who later become 1st round draft picks. When those guys go to Michigan, so much the better. Then there are the nineteen 2017 1st rounders who Michigan did not offer.
These are the 2017 1st rounders who Michigan did not offer and who accepted an offer from an in-state school: Mike Williams, Pat Mahomes, Derek Barnett, Marlon Humphrey, O. J. Howard, Garrett Bolles, Charles Harris, Takkarist McKinley, Tre'Davious White, T. J. Watt, Reuben Foster, Ryan Ramczyk. Maybe Michigan knew about these guys but figured we didn't have a chance of signing them so didn't offer.
These are the 2017 1st rounders who Michigan did not offer and who accepted an offer from an out-of-state school: Mitch Trubisky, Corey Davis, Deshaun Watson, Haason Reddick, Jarrad Davis, Evan Engram, David Njoku (this one stands out because he said he was interested in Michigan but we did not offer). What happened with these guys? They were good enough to eventually be 2017 1st rounders, they were prepared to go out of state, but Michigan apparently did not offer them. Were these missed opportunities?
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FWIW Michigan offered and got 2017 1st rounders Taco Charlton and Jabrill Peppers, which is fantastic.
And for the record Michigan offered and did not get 2017 1st rounders: Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas, Adoree' Jackson, Leonard Fournette, Jamal Adams, Christian McCaffrey, John Ross, Marshon Lattimore, Malik Hooker, Jonathan Allen, Gareon Conley.
– I remember Njoku. He played HS ball at NJ. We had some interest in him but didn't give him an offer. (Not sure why but he always looked athletic on tape.) He redshirted at The U and exploded as a redshirt sophomore under Mark Richt. Miami got only 1 good year out of him in his 3 years in Coral Gables.
– Gareon Conley was committed to us but flipped to Ohio State. Hoke's staff recognized his talent before Meyer's staff.
– Hoke/Mattison absolutely wanted Marshon Lattimore and his Glenville HS teammate S Erick Smith. But Glenville kids with Ohio State offers typically don't come to Michigan. Lattimore is like Jourdan Lewis and Ambry Thomas (meaning each would've been a top-100 player as a WR or DB).
– I remember being surprised that neither Ohio State nor Notre Dame showed any interest in Mitch Trubisky. I thought he would be a good college spread QB. I had no idea he would one day be a 1st rounder (much less a top 3 pick).
– I remember a few Michigan fans on 247Sports asking questions about Corey Davis when he was in HS. He turned out to be a baller from day 1 at WMU. (Missed opportunity for sure. Michgan would have been his best offer.)
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DeShaun Watson was a lock to Clemson. His HS coach knew Chad Morris and told Morris that Watson was something extraordinarily special. Morris trusted the information and (iirc) offered him as a freshman before any other school. Mark Richt/UGA tried to flip Watson but to no avail. Richt famously said, "Watson will deliver a National Championship to the school he signs with." He turned out to be right.
Haason Reddick was a walk-on at Temple and eventually earned a scholarship. He had zero offers. He was a miss by everybody.
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We didn't offer many of the in-state players because everyone knew they would attend the in-state powerhouse. For instance, OJ Howard and Marlon Humphrey were Alabama locks. Reuben Foster flipped from Auburn to Alabama when Gene Chizik's tenure went downhill after Gus Malzahn/Cam Newton.
While I thought the OP's basic observation was interesting, you correctly point out that there is a story behind each one of these non-offers. Some we know (e.g., Watson, Foster, etc.) and some we don't (e.g., academic non-qualifiers, lack of interest by player, etc.).
You do a great job of telling some of those stories.
Willie Henry and Frank Clark dispute your third bullet. There are a number of Glenville kids who didn't attend OSU but still made it to the NFL. OSU does have a numbers advantage, but nothing is cast in concrete.
April 28th, 2017 at 10:08 AM ^
They also were not offered by Ohio State.
Neither of those guys had OSU offers. I can't remember the last Glenville kid who had legit offers from both Ohio State and Michigan and chose Michigan. You might have to go back to the Carr era. Pierre Woods, maybe?
April 28th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^
These are all excellent notes. I thought I'd add a few more things:
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M's staff wanted to see Corey Davis in person but PJ Fleck said if he camped at MIchigan or MSU or even entertained an offer he would lose his WMU offer. Incredibly that worked. Fleck stole one here because if he had started camping people would have seen his skills. Frustrating considering MIchigan's 2013 WR class was chasing Treadwell then ending up with Dukes, York, and Da'Mario Jones. Guh!
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Ramzyck was a super sleeper--he transferred from Division III after nearly giving up football. Michigan should have gotten involved then since he was one of the best D-III players ever. I started reading about him when Wisconsin got him initially, and then due to a paperwork screwup he had to redshirt a year. When I learned from a Wisconsin guy that the staff was over the top furious about that I made a mental note to draft him in Draftageddon. The other guys gave me shit then. Anyway this was a guy you can't blame anybody for not seeing.
- The one that really gets me is Kizer, because he absolutely would have committed on the offer to Michigan, but Hoke already had Shane Morris committed to 2013. Think about that for a second: we had Devin Gardner who at the time we didn't know if he would even have eligibility in 2014, and then Russ Bellomy, whom the coaching staff had just watched against Nebraska, and then a 2013 commit with a completion % under 50%. And Hoke said no to DeShone Kizer. M'er F'er.
Kizer was from Toledo, right? If so I remember a few people here going apeshit for not offering him. I tip my hat to them.
Interesting take. Clearly every player has his own story but I get the overall point in a general sense.
The one that actually sticks out to me is Gareon Conley. He was a player Michigan under Hoke discovered. Michigan was his first offer and he was a commit.
I'm not sure what it says overall but I do find it interesting.
but a lot of players from Ohio want an OSU offer, but OSU is usually so stacked with 5 stars that they have to wait until there is an opening before decomitting / comitting.
So not too sure if Meyer missed him originally or was too busy with his monster class until he had room. Hoke recruited well so I'm happy to give him credit.
pretty sure several were junior college type prospects (i think mckinley and 2 of the OL maybe) - m never really targets JC so thatd explain a couple.
interesting i guess that m didnt offer elite prospects like humphrey, foster, white, etc - then again its almost always tough to pull top talent from some of those areas so who knows
One thing to keep in mind is the huge difference between Hoke and Harbaugh recruiting.
Hoke generally only offered when he was serious about giving a scholarship (and having a guaranteed spot for you). If you committed your spot was safe, but you couldn't take visits elsewhere. If someone he offered committed elsewhere, then he would send out an offer to a different player. So just because it doesn't show an offer, doesn't necessarily mean they weren't scouted and recruited.
Harbaugh, on the other hand, blanket offers to show and gauge interest. This is how most are doing it in the common recruiting era. He offered 300 people last class, but signed 30. If you commit, you still have to earn your spot. If you are committed elsewhere, doesn't mean they'll stop persuing you. But a Harbaugh offer just means he's interested; there's no scholarship guarantee with that.
Different strokes for different folks. I guess you could say a Hoke offer was more concrete, but it just isn't practical in modern times when kids flip flop all the time.
Why did we not sign all 32 future first round draft picks? Fire Borges.
we would have had some holes at key positions like C, OG, and OT.
I understand your post is tongue-in-cheek but I also appreciate the OP's curiosity. I think future draft will show Harbuagh's prowess at evaluating talent.
Harbaugh built a strong roster at Stanford (and he didn't stay long enough to reap all its rewards under his name) but at Michigan he has access to even more talent.
His coaching/development/leadership revitalized the NFL prospects of players like Kalis, Magnuson, Rudock, etc. while elevating the prospects of others like Chesson, Darboh, Butt, etc.
I'm very excited to see how Harbaugh's 2016 and 2017 classes perform. He stacked them with athletic, dynamic, talented players. I expect us to produce a steady supply of NFL talent for as long as Harbaugh is here.
Could have really used some holes from players at those positions.
I promise you I didn't have a Michigan offer.
That's not surprising.
reason that Hoke is no longer at UM, this would be it.
Curious, are you a Browns fan? If so, just curious what you think of Peppers now?
April 28th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
Nah, I'm from Pittsburgh. Go Steelers!
sounds like you're bi curious. nttiawwt
Corey Davis was a 2 star WR
Haason Reddick wasnt even ranked
Jarad Davis was a 3 star
Evan Engram was a 3 star
David Njoku was a 3 star
Deshaun Watson was a 4 star
Mitch Trubisky was a 4 star
Those are the ones who were willing to go out of state. Basically what Im getting at is it would've been pretty hard for Michigan to predict these guys would become 1st rounders. The QBs were 4 stars but maybe Michigan already had their QB at the time. Cant predict em all
Corey Davis had BIG grade issues. UM couldn't take him.
And Ryan Ramcyzk was a D3 player before transferring.
A couple guys my wife dated prior to me went on to be highly successful doctors who earn more than me.
FIRE MY WIFE.
she is not the one that told you about "the others"
First off, there's such a thing as a 1st round reach. I don't trust a number of first round picks most years.
Second, if any team recruited based on draftability then they'd be short a kicker, punter, long snapper, slot receiver, center and -- in most years when there isn't a Leonard Fournette or Christian McCaffrey -- running back.
Third, teams need to be more than the sums of their parts. Michigan last year had the best D-line in the country held back by inconsistent guard play. If for the sake of argument there was such a thing as FBS free agency and the five BPAs all played DE, Michigan wouldn't have gotten any better even if they nabbed all five of them. OTOH, Harbaugh III would've given his kingdom for a pair of guards with merely Magnuson's level of consistency.
I'm not saying this post is eye opening and crazy, but I think "first round reach" is a bit irrelevant. OK,maybe some of these guys should have slid to round 2 or 3...they're still an NFL talent. I've heard that translates well to the college game. No?
Times this post would be irrelevant...LB's if we had enough, there is no need to offer to all of them. Anytime a team is loaded at a position, this is going to happen. We had 5* Shane Morris for this class, so all the QB attention would be irrelevant. Shane was recruited with hopes of being one of these first rounders I'm sure.
Swing and a miss.
What's this about a first reach around?
Interesting stuff. After reviewing the comments, it struck me that scouts miss out quite a bit also.
What happened there??
The thing I am pondering is "Are Michigan coaches good at spotting guys who are good enough to get drafted in the NFL?"
To me, "Of the players who get drafted in the NFL, how many were spotted/offered by Michigan?" seemed like a good metric. 32 guys were good enough to get drafted in the 1st round of the 2017 NFL Draft and Michigan offered 13/32 (40.6%) of them.
The metric you are suggesting -- "Of the players Michigan spots & signs, how many are good enough to go pro?" -- seems like a good metric, too. This was helpful: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/schools/michigan/ as was this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Michigan_Wolverines_football_team
2009 class size: 22 LOI. 2013 draft: 2 drafted (Denard, BWC). 2/22 = 9.1%. 2 signed but not drafted: Kovacs, Demens. Total: 4/22 = 18%
2010 class size: 26 LOI. 2014 draft: 3 Wolverines drafted (Lewan, Schofield, Gallon). 3/26 = 11.5%. 2 signed but not drafted: Omameh, Toussaint. Total: 5/26 = 19%
2011 class size: 20 LOI. 2015 draft: 4 Wolverines drafted (Funchess, Clark, Ryan, Rawls). 4/20 = 20%. 1 signed but not drafted (Ash). Total: 5/20 = 20%
2012 class size: 25 LOI. 2016 draft: 3 Wolverines drafted (Glasgow, Ruddock, Henry). 3/25 = 12%. 5 signed but not drafted: Beyer, Countess, Kerridge, Wile, Wilson. Total: 8/25 = 32%
Conclusion: Michigan coaches are good at spotting & offering talent. Their ability to get that talent to sign for Michigan is not as good, but getting better.
I only took into consideration NFL jobs. I did not take into consideration Japan Football League, NFL Europe, Arena Football, or any of the other places you can earn a paycheck by playing football. My guess is that any recruit who ends up at Michigan has a 50/50 chance of being able to play for a paycheck somewhere when he graduates.
Other tidbits:
The 2017 NFL Draft is still going on so it's too early to tell how many Wolverines will ultimately transition from college football to pro football this year. However we do know that 14 Wolverines were invited to 2017 NFL Combine, 2/3 of whom will get drafted if the 2015 trend continues.
Michigan's 2013 recruiting class had 27 LOI. Seven of those twenty-seven (25.9%) 2013 recruits (ESPN grade) were invited to the combine: Jake Butt (83), Taco Charlton (84), Ben Gedeon (82), Delano Hill (79), Jourdan Lewis (84), De'Veon Smith (81), Channing Stribling (77),
Twenty of the twenty-seven 2013 recruits were not invited to the combine: Kyle Bosch (83), David Dawson (84), Reon Dawson (77), Ross Couglass (80), Jaron Dukes (83), Chris Fox (83), Derrick Green (87), Khalid Hill (79), Mo Hurst (77), Da'Mario Jones (78), Patrick Kugler (84), Mike McCray (84), Shane Morris (84), Henry Poggi (82), Dan Samuelson (75), Wyatt Shallman (79), Scott Sypniewski (67), Dymonte Thomas (84), Logan Tuley-Tillman (84), Csont'e York (76)
Michigan's 2017 combine invitees also included five 5th year seniors from the 2012 recruiting class: Ben Braden (79), Jehu Chesson (79), Jeremy Clark (76), Amara Darboh (78), Ryan Glasgow (66), Chris Wormley (80).
Finally, Michigan's 2017 combine invitees included one early departure from the 2014 recruiting class: Jabrill Peppers (ESPN 5 star)
I think that there's always a reason you offer someone, as well as a reason you don't offer them. Maybe it's about needs, maybe it's character, academics....maybe it's something more mndane like your own assessment of your chances with that player, but I don't know that they fact that only 13 of the players taken in the first round had an offer from Michigan means a whole lot in itself. I have to think a surprising number of schools probably offered most of the picks in the first round because they gauge interest in that manner.
My first question is....how does that number compare to Alabama? Ohio State? LSU? Florida State? Have the teams that have recruited at a high level and won identified these kids?
It's a bit apples-and-oranges since you have coaches like Harbaugh who will offer everybody, but I'd be interested to know how we compare.
April 28th, 2017 at 10:42 AM ^
I checked Bama, who sent out quite a bit more offers than Michigan in 2014 (the approximate class for this draft), though we offered slightly more in 2013.
They failed to offer 18/32 1st rounders.
I think we're fine.
April 28th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
..if we are retro-recruiting, why choose "1st round pick" as the litmus test?
How about we sign every "All-Pro" for the last 15 years?
And give Bo a bunch of NFL hall of fame QBs and WRs.
And sign the greatest offensive player of all time and the greatest defensive player of all time-o wait......... we did!
April 28th, 2017 at 10:43 AM ^
According to my sources at least 2 did have an offer
April 28th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
I really wanted Adoree Jackson even though he seemed like a lock to USC. I was fascinated by the idea of having both Adoree and Jabrill in the same backfield. Track was a big issue with Adoree at the time too.
April 28th, 2017 at 12:17 PM ^
I'd be curious to know how these guys were ranked out of high school, and therefore how much development plays a role. I think it was pretty widely accepted around here that Hoke didn't do a great job of developing his players, so perhaps it was more that than recognizing raw talent.
Beilein can't recruit!
/s
You seem to have excluded Malik McDowell from the list of first round picks. Surely, this must have been an oversight!