11 Warriors Game Prediction Thread: A Study in Hubris
A quick study of OSU fans and their predictions for the game (source: here).
114 people entered some kind of guess as to the final score. 113 had OSU winning, by the following margins:
> 0 and <= 7: 13 people
> 7 and <= 14: 20 people
>14 and <= 21: 22 people
>21 and <= 28: 19 people
>28 and <= 35: 15 people
>35: 24 people
Average OSU scoring total prediction: 50.2 points
Average UM scoring total prediction: 22.0 points
Therefore, an average margin of a 4 TD victory, with the most common prediction being (amazingly) a >5 TD win.
Of course, some of the higher ones were not too serious (e.g., MercyTex predicting 100-0 because "coach Day does not forget", which does throw off some of the averages). If you throw out the high eight scores (margins of 69 or greater), you get:
Average OSU scoring total prediction: 45.5 points
Average UM scoring total prediction: 23.0 points
Therefore, an average margin of a 3 TD+ victory predicted
The lone winner of the thread - and the only person downvoted - is user Habeas, who had UM winning 31-30.
Congratulations Habeas! You are now an honorary MGoBlog Buckeye Hero.
Ironically, one Michigan fan on that site (BlueTuesday) picked the score right, but (sadly) picked OSU to win. I wonder if BlueTuesday posts here too?
And, just a reminder: Final score UM 42 - OSU 27
Appendix: Choice Quotes from the thread
NCBuckLanc: "I have a sneaking suspicion that Day has not forgotten Harbaugh’s accusations of cheating (last year)"
Macdaddybuckeye: "Y'all need to let the cooper years go and realize Ryan Day ain't screwing around"
Earle: "I predict that Michigan will be very sore after the game. Their fans, too."
KillrNut: "As for all the talk of hanging 100, if there was no such thing as injuries I could see it happening, but Day isn't going to risk anyone getting hurt and the backups haven't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard lately."
Buckeyeinlakelandfl: "Right before the game, Michigan quits out of fear"
Quiverfull: "Surprised to see any of you have Michigan scoring a single point."
BloomingtonBuckeye: "Day sets the Ohio St record for largest margin of victory in the Game."
Bukirob: "Im just not buying that Michigan is really much better than MSU."
Schmidt'sGoldPants: "I legitimately think that CJ and Co. could actually hang a 'hundo on them."
YoungBossBuckeye: "Just bought a ticket! Sitting in Sideline 2, Row 13 right behind our bench. This is a bucket list thing for me and I'm excited."
Dgeneral: "I dont think even Alabama fans would predict such ridiculous scores against LSU or Georgia as the fans in here are predicting. Some of you have lost your minds."
KillrNut (again): "Vegas over/under on how many times an Ohio State player's shoe will be removed by a UM player: 0.5"
November 28th, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
Great stuff!
Although there were quite a number of Michigan fans here predicting a Michigan loss. Although it was due to BPONE rather than hubris.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
M fan prediction: "Ohio State will win because they have NFL talent at every position."
OSU fan prediction: "We'll win by infinity because Ryan Day is an omnipotent bad ass."
November 28th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
Hubris and BPONE are two sides of the same coin, really; it's just that one comes off looking a LOT stupider if wrong.
I didn't make any actual, written-down predictions before the game, but not all that ashamed to admit I spent the whole week assuming that the universe had some kind of brand-new and unique bullshit cooked up for this game. If you had forced me to predict something I'd have said something like 38-28 Ohio, with M having a lead in the third quarter and losing it somehow. That feeling was not helped by Ohio scoring a 4th-down touchdown on a ball that went half an inch over the outstretched hand of Aidan Hutchinson. It finally went away sometime around the second or third play of Haskins's five-carry drive to put the game away.
It's a hell of a lot better than assuming we'd win because, you know, we did in the past, and being so forcibly disabused of that notion that I start thinking our coach might need firing.
November 28th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
Those were just random fan comments. Here is what the 11 Warriors "experts" had to say:
HOW IS MICHIGAN GOING TO SCORE?
I don't even mean this sarcastically. It's a genuine question I've had all week.
The Wolverines have been extremely reluctant to throw the ball this year, but even if they wanted to, I don't believe they have the talent on the outside to match up with Ohio State, nor do I believe it has the talent at quarterback to get the ball there anyway. I think the Buckeyes are going to be able to confidently sell out to stop the run and trust the corners in coverage.
So that leaves Michigan trying to move the ball on the ground against a defense that just suffocated the best running back in the country.
I'm sure the Wolverines are going to get *something* on the scoreboard, but I have no idea how this offense can hang with Ohio State's offense, even if the Michigan defense comes to play today and keeps it close.
– Kevin Harrish
November 28th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
It's like the guy only watched us play Washington - and then didn't even pay attention to OSU's own game against Sparty, which Walker hardly played in because of his ankle.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
Like most lazy sports writers, he just straight-line interpolated past results.
November 28th, 2021 at 9:46 PM ^
tweaked ankle + the fact that msu's defense was a sieve and running the ball isn't exactly the best strategy for a several touchdown comeback attempt.
November 29th, 2021 at 9:00 AM ^
They didn't even watch the Washington game if they didn't realize they needed to stack the box and not let Haskins force their defensive coaches to find a new job
November 28th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
I wonder if we’ll be able to run the ball effectively?
November 28th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
Now to see comments by the same individuals after the game .. I wonder what they are saying now
November 28th, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
I genuinely want to see this too, however they are probably still silent and in disbelief, that they just got absolutely throttled and thrown around like a jv squad against us. I hope those mouth breathers never recover from this.
November 28th, 2021 at 9:35 PM ^
It is an epic meltdown over there. I've been reading an article here and there, reveling in the all the doomsday headlines. And the comments are priceless. Quite a few have compared Ryan Day to John Cooper (which IMO is reasonable based on yesterday's game, but it's early), they are arguing about who's at fault, one even said all O*** fans should boycott the bowl game. Classic.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:33 AM ^
A big handful of Ohio State fans are pretty simple minded. They do fall into a few discernable groups.
1. The We Got Our Asses Kicked group. These are people who love Ohio State and also understand football. You could talk with them and not want to chew your arm off to escape.
2. The Fire the Entire Defensive Coaching Staff group. Some overlap with (1) and we can certainly understand this mindset.
3. The Scum/Hairball/TTUN group. This is a huge swath of their fanbase and would definitely get you thinking about living without one arm.
4. The true morons who simultaneously predict we will get blown out by Iowa, and then also predict M will get crushed by our currently unnamed playoff opponent in the same sentence. There is overlap with (3) here, and if you run into these people in real life, you will need supernatural serenity to avoid going insane.
November 28th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
I am so happy that OSU's RB traveyon (sp?) henderson is a 1.0 style running back that lacks elite agility. I'm even happier that he apparently amassed over 2000 yards this year. They'll ride that horse to their grave for the next 3 yrs.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:13 PM ^
He hits an open hole fast in a straight line. There were a lot of those this year as teams had to back off to cover the OSU elite WRs.
When those big open holes were not there, he folded. He does not create his own yards via power or elusiveness.
November 28th, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
Here is another 11 Warriors "expert":
CAN MICHIGAN’S DEFENSE REALLY SLOW DOWN OHIO STATE’S OFFENSE?
I don't think Ryan Day is simply placating Michigan when he says the Wolverines’ defense will be the best Ohio State faces all season. The Wolverines’ defense has legitimately been among the best in the country this year, and I think Mike Macdonald will make things more difficult for the Buckeyes schematically than his predecessor Don Brown did.
But I’m still not quite sold that Michigan will actually be able to keep the Buckeyes from putting up another big number on the scoreboard this year. The Wolverines’ pass-rushers are elite, but Ohio State’s offensive line has shut down other top pass-rushers this season. I think their cornerbacks will be overmatched by Ohio State’s wide receivers, and their run defense hasn’t been dominant.
The Buckeyes’ offense hasn’t been infallible this season, as evidenced by the Nebraska and Penn State games, so I don’t rule out the possibility that Michigan could have similar success slowing down Ohio State. That doesn’t mean I see that actually happening, though.
– Dan Hope
November 28th, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
I will say that I'm surprised how well our DTs played against the run. I thought Henderson would cause us some trouble. It was tough sledding for him.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
I'm all for making fun of OSU slappies for their ridiculous claims, but I'm not sure that this analysis was so much different than what most UM fans believed ahead of The Game.
We weren't sure how UM edges would fare against OSU's NFL-level OTs. (Turned out really well.)
We feared UM's DBs getting torched by OSU's elite WRs. (UM held up well, but I think OSU WAS we're their best position group of the day.)
UM's DTs were an unknown against the run and LB run game support had been hit-or-miss. We feared a miss could turn into 6. (This turned out well for UM, too.)
In hindsight these three matchups all went much better for UM than UM fans or OSU fans expected.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:40 PM ^
I agree. Even our experts and especially fans didn't think UM could do it. No one really believed in the team except for the team.
Go Blue.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
That's the beauty of it. The 11 Warriors "expert" predictions were no better or more sophisticated than random fans on the internet.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
I don't think this was an unreasonable take when it was made.
November 28th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
Well, Youngbossbuckeye got his bucket list experience. Wonder if the experience was everything he expected?
November 28th, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
Maybe he had a great time. Is this him ...
November 28th, 2021 at 8:42 PM ^
This is actually heartwarming. All in all, it's just a game and we should have fun with each other. Of course, it's much easier after a win, so my hats off to that dude.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
Everybody is safe and happy. This is the Michigan difference.
This scene was reversed in 2002 when OSU finally won at home after nearly a decade of futility. Except the Ohio State fans were extremely hostile and aggressive toward Michigan fans, even after OSU won. Their AD actually had to put policies in place to dial back the harassment of visiting fans.
November 29th, 2021 at 10:52 AM ^
I remember that.
There is a you-are-there video somewhere on the internet taken at that game that shows exactly the same environment that Brian was talking about. It was no exaggeration. His incident(s) were just random samples of many, many that day.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
I found this:
December 1st, 2021 at 2:40 AM ^
Yes, this is it. Mass of scumbags.
November 28th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^
Apparently this is him, based on his profile at elevenwarriors.com. 
November 29th, 2021 at 2:22 AM ^
Logged in just to downvote his face. I hate it.
November 28th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
Sort of reminds me of the predictions we had for our game against MSU last year…
November 28th, 2021 at 7:51 PM ^
Here is another 11 Warriors "expert":
IS THIS A BIG GAME?
Why yes, it is.
Is Jim Harbaugh the coach for Michigan? Correct again.
Has the Wolverines shown any sign of being capable of staying with OSU for four quarters the last few years? No indeed.
Ohio State by 28.
– Garrick Hodge
November 28th, 2021 at 7:52 PM ^
Um, Garrick, Ohio State didn't even score 28.
You legitimately suck at your "job".
November 29th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
Garrick is the most OSU name I've ever heard, except maybe "Cletus"
November 28th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
Here is another 11 Warriors "expert" prediction:
OSU CONTINUES EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE IN RIVALRY ROUT
I’m generally overly cautious with my predictions, mostly because college football can be so week-to-week. Last week’s crushing of Michigan State has made me a believer in Ohio State. The Buckeyes will continue to thrive offensively, putting up another 50-burger in a rout to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game with a College Football Playoff berth on the line. Michigan’s defense has had some issues with high-tempo offenses this season, and boy do I have some bad news for the Wolverines.
– Garrick Hodge
November 28th, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^
I'd like to order a dozen of those 50-burgers. You can put them in a Hutchinson sack. I believe you have a few of those lying around. Look behind your O-Line.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:03 PM ^
Here is another 11 Warriors "expert" prediction:
MICHIGAN WON’T HOLD THE BUCKEYES UNDER 40 POINTS
I don’t foresee Ohio State putting up quite the same slaughterous numbers on a revamped Michigan defense as it did Michigan State and Purdue – although I wouldn’t rule out the possibility – but I still think the Buckeyes eclipse the 40-point mark on Saturday. Only three teams all season have managed to limit Ohio State to fewer than 40 points, and given the momentum the Buckeyes have built up over the past two weeks, I see them finishing with 41 in a two-touchdown win that could be close in the early stages.
– Griffin Strom
November 28th, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
He was right about the 40+ points and two-touchdown win prediction.
Except for the part where he got the wrong team.
So close.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
His prediction was very close to mine. I had OSU 38-27. Happy to be wrong.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:04 PM ^
Here is another 11 Warriors "expert" prediction:
OHIO STATE HOLDS MICHIGAN TO UNDER 20 POINTS
The Wolverines haven't scored fewer than 20 points all season, but they're going to be held below that today.
For all the talk about Ohio State's high-powered offense, I also think this might be one of the best defenses Michigan has seen all season, especially since it faced Wisconsin early this season before the Badgers really started coming to form.
I think Ohio State shuts down Michigan today and that the Buckeye defense – even more than the offense – will be the difference in the game.
– Kevin Harrish
November 28th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^
"the Buckeye defense – even more than the offense – will be the difference in the game."
So true, Kevin. To the tune of 42 Michigan ass-kicking points given up by that Ohio State defense.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
If Cade hadn’t have forced that 1st down pass that was intercepted we could have put 49 on them
ass kicking
November 28th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
Doesn't grasp how good Wisconsin and PSU defenses have been all season.
Other 11W writers didn't grasp that Michigan's defense is right there with PSU and Nebraska and much better than Oregon's.
It seems that across the board reference checks are beyond or unwelcome at 11W.
November 28th, 2021 at 9:04 PM ^
Wisconsin’s defense had allowed 69 rushing yards thru 3 games when we played them. Do these people even watch the conference they claim to be experts of?
November 28th, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
it's an echo chamber over there.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:04 PM ^
Their notions were wild but most picked OSU to win. The comical part is how many sincerely picked them to win by 35+ , many truly thinking they could or would hang 100.
I didn't think UM would win but my difference was about two scores. I kept fluctuating round 17pts but even I dropped my score differential to 10 before kickoff.
35+ is insane and let's you see just how spoiled they've been.
November 28th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^
"The absence of doubt is not necessarily a sign of the presence of truth."
Eat the "L" buckeyes.
November 28th, 2021 at 9:57 PM ^
That is a great quote
November 28th, 2021 at 8:07 PM ^
I was lurking over there all week in anticipation of the game, and I very much saw this thread. Boy do those guys make me mad.