Why Ohio State's loss was more important than us beating Iowa Saturday.
I am probably running the risk of being negged into the stone-age but here goes.
Every year (except his rookie year) since Tressel arrive in Columbus OSU has seemingly been a threat to win it all. He got it done in 2002 (at least that’s what the refs say) while he fell just short in 2006 and 2007. This year, a substantial portion of the college football pundits penciled Ohio State into the national championship game. They were returning an experienced offense led by a Heisman candidate and a stingy and senior-laden defense. Their schedule lined up nicely (as it tends to do during their runs) with Miami, Penn State and Michigan at home and Marshall, Ohio and Eastern Michigan filling out the cream puff portion of their schedule. While I dread the unknown of our coaching staff I would argue that OSU losing (at some point during the year) is more important to our future than us beating Iowa (or PSU or Wisconsin for that matter).
How the hell can that be you ask?
Look at the composition of our roster on any given year and you will notice a trend; a sizeable percentage of Ohio born players. Our neighbor to the South have given us ancient greats: Bennie Friedman and Bob Chappius. All time greats: Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson. Recent memory multi-year contributors: Elvis Grbac, B.J. Askew, Prescott Burgess, Shawn Crable and Pierre Woods. And current and future contributors: Jordan Kovacs, Mike Shaw, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Roy Roundtree, Kevin Koger, Patrick Omameh, Jibreel Black, Christian Pace, Courtney Avery and the Talbott brothers.
As much as I agree that Ohio is THE worst state ever (I was born, raised and educated in Ann Arbor) it is clear that it serves a purpose. I got to thinking about this when I saw the post about Chris Wormley receiving his much coveted Michigan offer but also while thinking back on recruiting in the past few years. Tressel’s success has brought about Michigan pain on a number of fronts, some obvious, some less so. When Tressel brought his first OSU team to the Big House in 2001 he had one lone Michigan native on the roster, Craig Krenzel. Now he has Taurian Washington, Dionte Allen (via transfer from Florida State), Aaron Gant, James Jackson, Johnathon Hankins and Reid Fragel.
So what you say? We didn’t want most of those guys anyway you say.
Well aside from that being a sevenfold increase, look at the players and the positions they play. Gant is a safety, Allen is a corner, Jackson is a slot, Washington is an outside receiver, Hankins is a space eating defensive tackle and Fragel is a tight end. Aside from Washington and Jackson (who would be great in Rich Rod’s offense) those are all positions of need and would have given us some of the much needed depth we have been craving. While it may appear that I am blaming our recruiting or recruiters; that is not the case. For those who did not grow up in Michigan, the law of the land states that you do not go to Ohio State. Maybe Michigan State if Michigan overlooks you or your grades are shit. Maybe Notre Dame if you grew up Catholic or favor that private school atmosphere. Maybe Iowa or Penn State if you like their depth chart. Maybe Indiana if MSU overlooks you too, but never Ohio State, never.
So what happened?
Tressel happened. I work with teenagers on a daily basis and I can tell you they are as fickle as a man with five wives. The kids who are getting ready to make their college decisions grew up watching OSU beat us with regularity. Us grown folks would never be swayed by such a blip in time but that is the reality of the teenage mind. I don’t recall any specifics so I won’t name drop but I remember a host of top flight Michigan talent actually considering Ohio State in the last few years (with some obvious success on OSU’s part). I would read how some stud player from Detroit “grew up” an Ohio State fan and then have wait for signing day with a razor to my wrist in horror.
While losing Michigan players to the Southern Satan is intolerable, losing Ohio players, the ones we used to have a chance with, is almost as bad. While we have always had success with some high profile guys in Ohio, we are not as successful as we once were. Ohio State’s roster and current recruiting crop is littered with guys who would have once really wanted to go to Michigan but are now content to ride the pine in Columbus because we have lost some of our relevance in that state. This has been an increasing trend since 2002. It will only continue to get worse if Ohio State were to win it all again. Ohio State’s loss guarantees (I guess nothing is 100%) that they will not win the national championship (not that they would have, stay with me here) and in the process capture the hearts and minds of teenage prospects throughout the Midwest.
One last thing…I am not an English major or a historian so if there is something grammatically or historically incorrect I apologize. Enjoy.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
October 18th, 2010 at 10:40 AM ^
October 18th, 2010 at 10:42 AM ^
Although your thesis that "Ohio State's loss was more important" is leaning toward exaggeration. If all, or even a majority, of our players came from Ohio, you would make an excellent point. As of the current recruiting class, 3/11 prospects are from Ohio. While some of the other eight may be considering OSU (I haven't checked this in detail, nor have I checked the team composition per state), roughly speaking, three prospects (or 25%~) could have been disappointed by OSU's loss. At the same time though, the other 75%~ are still disappointed with Michigan's loss. As I said initially, you make a good point that OSU's loss was important, but their record is still far better than ours and this effect would be magnified upon simultaneous OSU losses and Michigan wins.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:46 AM ^
...but I think in the competition for recruits, overall success of Ohio State only matters a little bit. As naijablue said above, Michigan's performance and excitement about the direction of the program are the two biggest keys.
Losing against Iowa doesn't kill us, but winning against Iowa would have been a huge momentum builder for recruiting. 8-4 is still within reach, and should be the target.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^
Hurricane fans and others have difficulty seeing the '02 game for what it was (pretty evenly matched teams if you look through all the "U" hype). They think that OSU got 30 extra points in addition to a favorable call on that penalty.
Look closely and you'll see a team full of future NFLers (Krenzel and Clarett aside). In some ways it reminds me of Michigan (underhyped) and Nebraska (overhyped) in '97.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^
So I guess my question is, why was OSU's loss so important? You kind of buried the lead there, perhaps so far you have yet to dig it up. Beating Iowa improves UM's record; OSU losing does absolutely nothing to help UM. At this point in the season, let's focus on winning the games against actual opponents and not get caught up in the meta-signficance of recruiting across state lines.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:26 AM ^
with Bronxblue.
I don't understand Original post's point.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:32 AM ^
I'd really only be concerned with OSU losing if we were in contention for the Big Ten title, which at the current pace, we are not.
More significantly, OSU losing gives MSU an edge to win the Big Ten outright, which diverts in-state and Ohioan recruit attention to Sparty.
October 18th, 2010 at 10:58 AM ^
I definitely agree with you on this. I actually graduated with James Jackson at Grand Ledge and it seemed "wrong" to me that he would go to OSU rather than UM, but honestly it also seemed that they had the better program, so it was almost more impressive that he go down there. I don't think that's something that would have happened in years past.
I don't know much about Jim Tressel, but based on Jackson, I kind of doubt how much values character. I'd like to think players like Jackson wouldn't play at UM because I doubt he had good grades in HS, and he really just had an awful attitude. I was in plenty of classes with him in HS, including a class during our senior year where he bitched out an elderly teacher in front of the class and called her racist for giving him a bad grade on a paper. He was suspended for one day. I imagine if I had done the same, I would have been suspended for a much longer time, and my scholarships here at UM would have been in jeopardy. I wouldn't want someone like that representing the University. I am very pleased to see press conferences at UM, because players like Denard and Stonum represent the University well.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:10 AM ^
hypes up 'the game' which is a huge selling point to kids
better league helps as well
October 18th, 2010 at 11:18 AM ^
No, us losing will always have a bigger net impact on our recruiting than any result of our rivals. Considering the week a win because our rival lost, even though we lost too is a losing little brother mentality.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:27 AM ^
Track would you be talking about naija?
October 18th, 2010 at 12:24 PM ^
October 18th, 2010 at 11:46 AM ^
I agree us winning (throughout the year) is number one overall most important part of our recruiting (I never said it was not) but losing to OSU every year (or almost every year) has also made us second fiddle in the Big Ten. Now we are dealing with recruiting casualties from MSU as they are having a good run too. My point about riding the pine was more directed at Ohio born players like the multitude of defensive ends they are recruiting this year. Why aren't those guys looking at our depth chart and need for defense and taking interest? I am not saying OSU needs to be terrible just that when they are the ESPN darling and on eveyone's lips, teenagers take notice. Them getting to the NC game and losing is amusing to us but kids in the midwest notice they got there so them losing whatever amount of games is needed to keep them out of that game is a huge net gain for us. It is not MORE important than us winning and being good just we can relax a little on the Iowa loss because OSU lost too (I guess it is just a glass half full approach). I am not as much thinking about our current (not yet full) class of recruits, although we have not gotten any real interest from Ohio's elite players this year, but more the trend as a whole. I know we have put more of an emphasis on Florida than pre-Rich Rod but everyone is always commenting about how the cupboard was bare when he got here and I think that correlates with us repeatedly losing to OSU. It takes balls to go to Michigan if you are a Ohio kid, it takes even bigger balls to come here when they are beating us every year and the pull seems less appealing.
p.s. I appreciate the commentary and am glad I was not kicked out of the mgoblog community for this post. This is my first diary (or original posting for that matter) and I was nervous about putting all this out there. That said, this is going to be a long two weeks so I thought I would put out an analysis that may make some people smile. My biggest fear was OSU winning it all and having to hear about it from every possible media orifice so I for one am very pleased. Go Blue.
October 18th, 2010 at 11:54 AM ^
Your title contradicts this:
"I agree us winning (throughout the year) is number one overall most important part of our recruiting (I never said it was not) "
October 18th, 2010 at 11:49 AM ^
You always need to take care of your own business first and foremost. When Michigan is winning its games consistently it will be easier to recruit. If M and OSU match losses it just means that players like Andre Y will go to Oregon. Players like Chris Norman and Mylan Hicks will go to Sparty.
October 18th, 2010 at 12:03 PM ^
Take care of your business first but I would say 11-1 OSU with no national championship appearance is a recruting boon whereas us going either 8-4 or 9-3 becomes a wash. Recruits want to see wins, no doubt, but OSU not winning the NC is large regardless. We don't compete too much with Iowa for recruits so losing to them does not hurt us as much as kids from Ohio, who we do recruit, thinking we are and never will be (remember teenage minds here) Ohio State's equal.
October 18th, 2010 at 12:22 PM ^
Iowa beat us for Jordan Walsh (an OL who is 5.8, 4*, 79 per Tim's B10 rankings) and Ray Hamilton (TE, 5.7, 4*, 79). Those would be important additions for the team. Incidentally, Hamilton is from that state down south.
October 18th, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^
OSU has been overrated all season, and probably wouldn't have deserved to be in the MNC game even if they had run the table. What would a third straight MNC loss do to OSU recruiting?
Maybe another win like this year's Rose Bowl victory over Oregon helps OSU recruiting more than a loss in the bigger game.
(Yes, I'm hunting frantically for silver linings after the Wisconsin game, but I think my reasoning is valid.)
October 18th, 2010 at 12:09 PM ^
is to beat OSU. We are not going to pull elite players out of Ohio or stop OSU from raiding our pipelines if we can't stand up to them on the field.
Everything is cyclical - when we turn the cycle over and bring OSU's winning streak against us to end - we will be able to get out recruits. Same goes for MSU. Whether they lose against somebody else is really not that relevant here.
BTW - I think we have a good shot against OSU. We just need a bit of luck and God knows we are due for it.
October 18th, 2010 at 12:17 PM ^
Winning cures all recruiting ills!
October 18th, 2010 at 1:15 PM ^
Ray Hamilton is a good one. We are not going to win every battle but we seem to be slipping in the eyes of the premier recruits of Ohio that we were once in on. This is a trend that has not been going in our favor as of late. I agree also that everything is cyclical and that we have a good shot of beating OSU this year. What I am trying to say, and maybe I should have made this a short thread post instead of a diary, is that if we are not going to beat OSU on a regular basis then the last thing we need for them to do is win the NC and that looks unlikely now (yay). Even a guy like Wormley (my inspiration for this post) who loves Michigan would have a hard time (not impossible) turning down a 13-0 NC OSU team over a 10-3 Michigan team. I think it is much easier for him to say no to a 12-1 or 11-2 OSU team in favor of a 8-4 or even an 8-5 Michigan team. Perception matters to teens. They do not know all that much history and re-run after re-run of OSU media slobbing is not good for recruiting. Since their loss they have already ceased to matter in the eyes of ESPN (which matters no matter how much we all hate their glorification bullshit).
October 18th, 2010 at 1:44 PM ^
But you do make some interesting points.
First, I think our winning, and our program, and our coaches, are much more important to recruits than whether or not tOSU wns or loses.
Regarding what is important to recruits, I actually think two other factors are more important than W-L record. First, whether there is really a place for them on the team that works with their personal skill set and gives them a chance to compete for PT. Second, the coaches at Michigan and the direction the program is going in. Even a high school kid can see and understand (to some degree) that our losses are caused by our lack of depth and experience on defense. If the coaches can convince them that we are heading in the right direction, neither regressing nor standing still, some good recruits should sign up.
I also think that Tressel is both a good coach and a good guy, and this is attractive to some recruits. On a team of 85 plus players, undoubtedly some will have character or grade issues (think: Cissoko, Savoy, Ezeh, Dorsey, etc.) However, I think that a lot of guys out there are attracted by both Tressel and RR, and I think that our coaching staff has actually been a real step up in this regard.
October 18th, 2010 at 2:00 PM ^
October 18th, 2010 at 2:52 PM ^
I'm sorry, but this is pure Little Brother thinking. What happens to us is always - always - most important.
October 18th, 2010 at 5:41 PM ^
Our ability to recruit the best players available and in the midwest that means Ohio. I am not saying I don't think winning is important only that Ohio State's dominance of us and the Big Ten is making guys who might be interested in Michigan forget about us. Our '97 championship helped us sign a bunch of highly ranked recruits for years and when OSU won in '02 the same thing happened. While I would love to whip their asses every year, that has not happened so to prevent them from gaining any more momentum in recruiting it is good to see them take a tumble. Everyone is saying just win and we will be fine. Well of course but the better the players we have the more we will win. If they won the NC this year their already good recruiting classes will only get better and it will be just one more hurdle for us to deal with. If our rivals losing helps us win I will take it the same as beating them straight up.
October 18th, 2010 at 4:15 PM ^
As good as a Buckeye loss is, I'd rather concentrate on what M is doing right now.
In sports, winning cures all ills. As long as Michigan wins more than it loses, the progrma will be fine.
October 23rd, 2010 at 12:39 PM ^
It's more like if Michigan wins A LOT more games than it loses, the program will be fine. That line was too close to settling.
October 18th, 2010 at 7:35 PM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong, but many of the kids that go to OSU (and Michigan conversely) have rarely picked one school directly over the other. In other words, while every kid in the Midwest has Michigan and OSU both in their top 10 (because, duh), rarely does the kid have both in his top two or three towards the end.
Especially on the offensive side of the ball, because other than obvious blue chippers OSU and Michigan don't really go after the same type of recruit. Defensively of course is a different story, as everyone needs linebackers, ends, and defensive backs (!!1!).
Point taken, but I think a bit overstated.
October 18th, 2010 at 8:20 PM ^
...but the performance of both MSU and OSU has a direct effect on Michigan regarding recruiting. And, though I wanted Michigan to have a chance at upsetting an undefeated OSU team and ruining their season, I am always happy to see their season ruined, no matter who does it or when it happens. The same applies to Michigan State.
Either of those teams playing for the National Championship would have a negative effect on Michigan recruiting, especially while Michigan is in the rebuilding mode. Even if it's "only" one or two players a year, it still hurts the program.
As for how it applies to last weekend, I would like anyone who didn't pencil Iowa in as a loss in August to raise their hand. I would imagine that most of your hands are still on your mouse or keyboard. Beating the elite teams would be nice, but right now it is more important to beat on the second level and get at least eight wins in the regular season.
Besides, most of "my" teams lost Saturday. Watching OSU lose was the only great time I had watching football all weekend.
October 19th, 2010 at 2:30 AM ^
The only loss that would help M recruiting is a loss to M. I still blindly hold out hope for a 77-0 slaughter that will have all the 5 stars defecting to AA.
October 19th, 2010 at 3:30 AM ^
I think our recruits will come whether or not we win this one game. One game isn't big in the grand scheme of things.
October 19th, 2010 at 7:15 AM ^
...the institutional differences relative to educational quality. It's no contest.
October 19th, 2010 at 8:57 AM ^
I can't argue with the specific points you make but generally speaking I don't like knocking down our expectations. It wasn't all that long ago when we were top dog in the neighborhood and we should think about getting back to that position rather than rooting for OSU to lose one game to ruin their perfect season. We are better than that.
October 19th, 2010 at 9:31 AM ^
...means stability in the coaching staff, another important aspect in recruiting.
October 19th, 2010 at 11:21 AM ^
18 year olds are fickle...and if they see OSU has having hit a ceiling, not being able to win every game as opposed to us making a marked improvement from year to year, it sticks in their minds. We lose games because of player mistakes, and poor execution....OSU loses plays because of conservative play-calling and being outcoached. Most of their losses over the last 8 or 9 years, Tressel was outcoached, sometimes tremendously because he obviously has the most talent(i guess) in the Big 10. High schoolers are looking at us and saying hey, i could've made that play and thinking they can contribute. They might not think the same about osu.
The only problem is now that with OSU losing, which is the lesser of two evils, OSU winning the Big 10 or MSU?
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