Tempo-Free Defense Points Per Posession Update: Includes Offense PPP as well
Last week we saw Points Per Posession for the offense as a tempo free metric to see how good our O is. With that in mind I wanted to look at PPP for our defense. This is a little tough as the NCAA doesn't put it all together so you have to go back to each drive and pull in the drive numbers. So I went ahead and did that for 2010 so far and got this...
|1||-9||0||Punt||71||7||Rush TD||53||3||FG Good|
|5||48||3||FG Made||19||0||Punt||79||7||Rush TD|
|8||49||0||TO on Downs||24||0||Punt||24||0||Punt|
|9||42||0||TO on Downs||77||0||EOH||70||7||Rush TD|
|11||66||3||FG Made||26||7||Pass TD|
|4||64||7||Rush TD||99||7||Rush TD|
|9||69||7||Rush TD||33||0||TO on Downs|
|10||8||0||Punt||50||0||TO on Downs|
Note that the items in italics were not counted as I decided they shouldn't be counted - a couple other EOH drives were counted because, at least to me, it seemed obvious the other team was definitely trying to score.
All that data chrunched in this:
Ok, so thus far our D is giving up just over 2 points/posession - hmm (and OMG, Thank God IU wasn't as efficient as UMass). That doesn't sound that good - rather than compare it to tOSU or MSU I thought I'd compare it to our 2009, since most of us have a pretty firm grasp on what we thought of that D (I'll update with the rest of the Big Ten next week but I don't have the time just yet). Also, for 2009 I used our first 4 and Delaware State. Chart...
|Opponent||Western||Notre Dame||Eastern||IU||Delaware St|
|1||6||0||Punt||69||0||FG Miss||8||0||Punt||80||7||Rush TD||-1||0||Punt|
|3||6||0||Punt||56||3||FG Made||79||7||Rush TD||-5||0||Punt||5||0||Punt|
|4||0||0||Int||76||7||Pass TD||8||0||Punt||67||7||Rush TD||2||0||Punt|
|6||-14||0||Punt||17||3||FG Good||36||7||Rush TD||52||3||FG Made||14||0||Punt|
|9||80||0||TO on Downs||17||0||Punt||6||0||Punt||8||3||FG Made||14||3||FG Made|
|11||85||7||Pass TD||36||7||Rush TD||55||0||TO on Downs||72||3||FG Made||76||3||FG Made|
Again the italized EOH drives were not counted in the following:
Ok, great, so now we know exactly much worse our D is this year than last year but we also played Sparty last year so let's see how that turned out...
|10||45||0||TO on Downs|
So using that same Sparty 137% over achieving you end up with the D doing this...
Eeek! So how many point are we looking at? Well, the average number of drives faced thus far in 2010 per game is 12 and the average number in 2009 was 13. Last year Sparty had 11 countable drives so I'll call that a wash compared to this year. With that in mind where does that leave this years D vs Sparty?
Well - 2.91*11 = 32 points and if we give them another posession they get 35 points.
Summary - well, it looks like comparing this years data to last years data our D might be giving up another 14 points in this game but our O is also much better. The next natural step is to look at how MSU is performing this year compared to last and merge the two sets of data but, as I said, that's for another week as it's already Thursday and I've got work to do!
My prediction (knocking on wood, throwing salt over shoulder, every other non-jinxing thing you can think of) UM 38-MSU 35 (I think we'll get a 27 yard FG at some point along the way).
I welcome any suggestions/additions and I'll try to update this weekly and expand it to all of the Big Ten and just have summary data in the future so as not to make it too long.
Update: I've updated with the fixed numbers for the IU EOH TD and pushed the prediction to 38-35 - maybe that 27 yard FG will come at the end of the game?
Update 2: For Mat - I've run the Offensive numbers comparing ourselves to last year and, in a word, NNNOOOO!!!!
Keeping UMass and DSU in the calc I ended up with our O only getting 57% of it's expected output (OUCH!) with about 1 posession more per game. Even if we throw in that extra posession our expected offensive output is only 2.058 pts/posession leaving us at 25 points. Of course 09 was bouyed by the DSU game pulling in over 5pts/possession so if we take that out that game you end up with an expected offensive output of 26 for 11 drives or 28 for 12 drives.
Basically, our O is going to have to do MUCH better against their D than they did last year if this is going to be a win because last years O didn't do squat (60% <= squat).
Also, something of note to give hope for this years O vs last years (even after accounting for drive efficiency) is the massive decrease in number of negative yardage drives (not just plays but entire drives!).
2009 negative yardage drives through 4 OOC + IU = 9
2010 negative yardage drives through 4 OOC + IU = 2.
I'm still sticking to my prediction but, hopefully, the UM O will do better against MSU than it did last year otherwise we're going to be hurting.
In case you're curious our O, as mentioned in another diary, is at 3.614 PPP. If Sparty is going to get the 35 points predicted above and we get 12 posessions we'll need 3.166PPP to get to 38 or 3.5PPP to get to 42 - both below our season average.
Again - knocks on wood, throws salt over shoulder, yada yada yada...