Season Review of Brian's "Three opportunities for me to look stupid"

Submitted by dmoo4u on January 9th, 2024 at 2:01 PM

One of my favorite things about the game previews is reading Brian’s 3 opportunities for him to look stupid. I was wondering how often he is correct on his predictions, so I figured I would go back and gather all the predictions and see how accurate he is. I haven't seen this done in previous years, but I apologize if someone else normally does this and I missed it! Below are all of the predictions he’s made for every game this season and the final result.  The tldr of this post is that 70% of the time, Brian is wrong every time. A few observations:

  • At the beginning of the season, Brian was making 4 predictions (3 predictions, plus a score prediction) and then and reverted back to 3 (2 predictions, plus a score prediction). WHY? I need answers. 
  • Brian predicted a Pick-Six in 3 of the last 5 games. He really wanted that one, but unfortunately he didn’t get it. 
  • There were 5 games where he got all 3 predictions wrong. How embarrassing. 
  • One Note: I gave half point for a close score prediction. This was determined by taking the delta of his predicted Michigan Score from the actual, and adding that to the delta of the predicted opponent score from the actual.  If it was 10 or less, I gave him half correct.

What say you? How did Brian do? Think you can do better? 

 

Michigan vs East Carolina

  1. Fred Moore reels in his first career TD 
    1. Wrong (2 catches for 18 yards, no TD)
  2. Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins each collect a sack  
    1. Wrong
  3. Michigan 53-11 
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan 30-3)

 

Michigan vs UNLV

  1. Both backs go over 100 yards because UNLV tries to get nosy and gets it wrong.
    1. Wrong (80 yards for Blake, 9 for Donovan)
  2. JJ McCarthy completes 121% of his passes, besting 2024 Alex Orji's projected statline. (Actually: 80%, 10 YPA.)
    1. Correct (88% completion rate, 11 YPA)
  3. Tommy Doman doesn't punt until the second half when the backups are in.
    1. Correct (First punt in 3Q)
  4. Michigan, 44-19 
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 35-7)

 

Michigan vs Bowling Green

  1. JJ McCarthy completes 79% of his passes, sending the Michigan internet into throes of recriminations.
    1. Wrong (62% completion rate)
  2. Connor Bazelak is not sacked seven times, because he doesn't play the whole game.
    1. Correct (he logged a DNP due to injury - so i guess I’ll give him this one?)
  3. Corum de-rusts and looks like Corum en route to 126 yards.
    1. Wrong (Corum had 101 Yards)
  4. Michigan, 39-8
    1. Half Correct for being close (Final score was Michigan, 31-6)

 

Michigan vs Rutgers

  1. Roman Wilson: 120 yards, two TDs.
    1. Wrong (Roman had 59 yards, 0 TD)
  2. McCarthy is back to who he was in games one and two.
    1. Half Correct - he was better, but not as good as games 1 and 2 (71% completion rate, 214 yards, 1 TD.)
  3. Gavin Wimsatt does not reach 100 yards passing.
    1. Wrong (He had 180 yards)
  4. Michigan, 43-11.
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 31-7)

 

Michigan vs Nebraska

  1. It's still Hinton at right tackle to start, with Henderson rotating in.
    1. Wrong (Hinton DNP)
  2. Donovan Edwards has had a come-to-Jesus conversation this week and gets it right.
    1. Wrong (14 rushes for 48 yards for Dono)
  3. Michigan, 25-8.
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 45-7)

 

Michigan vs Minnesota

  1. McCarthy gets 25 attempts as Michigan re-balances the offense after force-feeding Edwards last game. He completes 21 of these.
    1. Wrong (14 completions on 20 attempts)
  2. Kaliakmanis throws two boggling INTs as he has to throw 30 times.
    1. Correct (2 Ints, but only on 15 attempts)
  3. Michigan, 37-9 
    1. Wrong (Final score wasMichigan, 52-10)

 

Michigan vs Indiana

  1. IU total yards are under 200.
    1. Wrong (232 total yards for IU)
  2. Roman Wilson catches a 50-yarder.
    1. Wrong (Longest catch was 7 yards)
  3. Michigan, 43-0.
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 52-7)

 

Michigan vs Michigan State

  1. McCarthy cracks 25 attempts and throws for 10 YPA.
    1. Correct (27 attempts, 10.6 YPA)
  2. Katin Houser gets replaced at some point.
    1. Correct (He got replaced by Sam Leavitt)
  3. Michigan, 34-11 
    1. Wrong (Final Score was Michigan, 49-0)

 

Michigan vs Purdue

  1. Donovan Edwards has 100 yards receiving.
    1. Wrong (41 Receiving Yards)
  2. Hudson Card is sacked six times.
    1. Wrong (Sacked once)
  3. Michigan, 44-0
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 41-13)

 

Michigan vs Penn State

  1. An old-timey Michigan game with 25 Blake Corum carries that go for 120 yards.
    1. Correct (145 yds on 26 carries)
  2. PSU drives the field once. They also get Michigan on a trick play.
    1. Wrong (They had scoring drives of 66 yds, 75 yds, and 75 yds.)
  3. Michigan, 30-9
    1. Wrong (Final score was )Michigan, 24-15

 

Michigan vs Maryland

  1. Will Johnson pick-six.
    1. Wrong (but our D did have a scoop and score)
  2. Michigan looks like 2022 Michigan, with a heavy run focus and grinding gameplan; Corum gets another 25 carry day.
    1. Correct.  (28 carries for Blake)
  3. Michigan, 34-15.
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 31-24)

 

Michigan vs Ohio State

  1. Donovan Edwards finally has a Donovan Edwards game, doing damage in both phases.
    1. Wrong (31 Rush yards, 34 passing yards, 5 receiving yards
  2. Sainristil pick-six.
    1. Wrong (UM D had 2 INTs in the game but no pick sixes [1 for Rod Moore, 1 for Will Johnson])
  3. Michigan, 26-17
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 30-24)

 

Michigan vs Iowa

  1. Kalel Mullings has ten carries.
    1. Wrong (He had 3 carries)
  2. The Iowa first half points under cashes.
    1. Correct (0 first half points for Iowa. Also 0 second half points)
  3. Michigan, 29-4.
    1. Half Correct for being close (Final score was Michigan, 26-0)

 

Michigan vs Alabama

  1. Michigan QBs exceed 100 rushing yards combined.
    1. Wrong (Combined 29 rushing yards)
  2. Sainristil pick-six.
    1. Wrong
  3. Michigan, 29-22.
    1. Half Correct for being close (Final score was Michigan, 27-20)

 

Michigan vs Washington

  1. Corum averages 6 YPC.
    1. Correct (6.4)
  2. Penix throws for 300 yards but Washington has to attempt two field goals and another drive ends on downs.
    1. Half Correct for getting the 2 field goals (Penix threw for 255 and they did have 2 field goals and 2 drives ending on downs)
  3. Michigan, 33-25.
    1. Wrong (Final score was Michigan, 34-13)

 

Summary

Correct: 9 (19%)

Half-correct: 5 (11%)

Wrong: 33 (70%)

Football

Comments

Denard In Space

January 9th, 2024 at 2:10 PM ^

I feel like you are omitting the "spiritually correct" category in which Brian really did get at least one of the predictions spiritually correct in every game. The scoreboards, for example, often tell the same story even if the numbers are off like in the Indiana, Minnesota, and Bowling Green games. Also things like Indiana going for 232 yards as opposed to "under 200" are also spiritually correct IMO. 

Joined: 05/24/2018

MGoPoints: 13469

cappy412

January 9th, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^

I agree with this! The Penn State prediction about them driving the field once was definitely spiritually correct: one of those long drives was a field goal and another was basically garbage time, so I feel like it's worthy of at least half a point

(I also want to add that in general, I loved this and I'm so glad you did it, OP)

Joined: 07/27/2016

MGoPoints: 905

EGD

January 9th, 2024 at 3:24 PM ^

Another one that I think Brian should have gotten credit for is the Donovan Edwards prediction against Ohio State. He predicted Edwards would "do damage" both in the running game and the passing game, and Edwards topped 30 yards in both categories. Those may not be huge numbers but it's a significant enough contribution to call it "doing damage" IMO, especially because that was a comparatively low-yardage game involving two excellent defenses.

Joined: 09/16/2009

MGoPoints: 35199

rym

January 9th, 2024 at 2:10 PM ^

The predictions were always insightful and reasonable nonetheless. The low success rate just goes to show that trying to predict sports outcomes can be fun but is futile.

Joined: 09/07/2019

MGoPoints: 1676

befuggled

January 9th, 2024 at 2:22 PM ^

With the scores, I think you have to look at Brian's predicted margin of victory instead of the generally ridiculous score he predicts. Although if Iowa had scored I'm sure it would have been a safety.

Personally, I came into the playoffs thinking that if Michigan were to win out JJ would have to have a couple of big games (admittedly more so against Alabama than Washington). My reasoning was that the ground game has not been as good this year at it has the last two, and Michigan would have to pass in order to score enough points to win, and also that the defense would have trouble stopping playoff teams' offenses.

Yet JJ was--well, not bad, but just fine. He missed some passes against both Alabama and Washington that he normally would make, but he threw well enough to win. And the running game came up big at the end.

I was dead wrong about the defense. They were helped a bit--Alabam's bad snaps, Penix missing a throw or two that could have changed the complexion of the game--but they put a ton of pressure on both Milroe and Penix and came up big in the end.

Joined: 07/01/2008

MGoPoints: 9955

Hemlock Philosopher

January 9th, 2024 at 2:39 PM ^

I think the grading here is a bit harsh. For example giving a wrong for the score on PSU and OSU... PSU scored a late TD, otherwise this one was within that range. OSU was a TD more for them and 4 more for us. Alabama was dead on. Maybe use the O/U and spread as measures? M to cover, opponent to cover, and over or under. Then you can get an easy correct, half correct, and wrong. 

Joined: 02/12/2009

MGoPoints: 9421

brad

January 9th, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^

Brian's score predictions are often just the vegas over/under and point spread, sometimes adjusted (like the UW guess) to hew toward SP+ a bit.  No one can actually predict the score of a sporting event.  So, at least that part is basically a roundabout proof of the fact that Michigan was somewhat underrated all year this year because of judging based on the past 25 years of how Michigan works.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 15727

reshp1

January 9th, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^

You missed the most important one:

12-0. Yes, fans of multiplying percentages together, 11-1 is probably the most likely outcome. Don't care. Hit dingers.

100% Correct with a bullet.

Joined: 10/31/2011

MGoPoints: 34177

jmblue

January 9th, 2024 at 3:49 PM ^

Your grading scale for the scores seems too harsh.  The margin is what should really count.  This is all the more so in Brian's case, given that he likes weird, unconventional scorelines.  Your methodology makes it extremely difficult for him to ever be "correct" even when he's super close. 

Brian's  Alabama prediction was dead-on  IMO - a seven-point win with both teams scoring in the 20s.  That deserved more than just "half correct."   

His Iowa prediction was likewise really close (29-4 compared to 26-0) - just one point off the final margin.

The OSU prediction (26-17) really wasn't bad either, just three points off the final margin.  Calling that "wrong" doesn't seem fair.  

Personally, I'd say that guessing the winner of the game (regardless of margin) should be an automatic "half correct," and getting the margin within a TD should be "correct."

Joined: 11/07/2008

MGoPoints: 102810

mi93

January 9th, 2024 at 4:40 PM ^

I'd give credit for getting margin of victory right (spot on for Bama) or even close (IU).

Regardless, this was a very fun recap of the year.  I vote you do this every year!

Joined: 11/15/2008

MGoPoints: 30380

OC Wolverine

January 10th, 2024 at 1:47 AM ^

As others have mentioned.  Grading seems really stringent here.  I would give correct/mostly correct to these:

Michigan vs Bowling Green

  • JJ McCarthy completes 79% of his passes, sending the Michigan internet into throes of recriminations.
    1. Wrong (62% completion rate)

While Brian missed on the completion rate, the 'sending the Michigan internet into throes of recriminations' does seem eerily spot on even if it was more warranted than a 79% completion game.

  • Corum de-rusts and looks like Corum en route to 126 yards.

              Wrong (Corum had 101 Yards)

Corum went 101 yards on 12 carries for 8.4 ypc with 54 long and 2 TD, so I would say de-rusts and looks like Corum is correct

Michigan vs Ohio State

  1. Donovan Edwards finally has a Donovan Edwards game, doing damage in both phases.
    1. Wrong (31 Rush yards, 34 passing yards, 5 receiving yards

What is more of a Donovan Edwards game than throwing a big pass on trick play?

 

Joined: 01/09/2024

MGoPoints: 242