Know Your Enemy: A UConn Preview

For the information, but mostly for providing me with some optimism.  My guesstimation had us with about a 55% chance of victory (post-Woolfolk injury).  I would be very, very happy to be proven wrong!

The Mathlete never ceases to amaze me.

As always, thanks for the work.  For some reason, I'm not really concerned about UConn. 

If our pass defense is a net positive this year, watch for some really surprised pundits come October 15th or so.  I'm still terrified to watch them play defense.

The fact that you consistently put out this level of analysis on your own initiative, for free, while (assuming) working a regular job, wow.  That's freaking sweet.  Never get sick of your work.

I like the statistics!  I am looking for a few forced mistakes by UM's quicker than expected defense and UM will get a 34-17 win. 

I like Edsall's little Greg Lloyd roster intrigue!  Unexpected and cute, but not enough!

GO BLUE!

You made me feel even more comfortable for Saturday. Just 3 days away people!!!

...it works every time.

I always feel dumber after having read your diaries.  I suppose I should head to the local University to audit a stats course so I can spend more time on MgoBlog...

I don't put too much stock in these numbers, but I'll take all the reassurance I can get at this point!  I did think the number of factors in Michigan's favor was interesting, but none of those factors will be playing DB for us on Saturday.  Still, reasons to hope!  Go Blue!

It seems optimistic to view Michigan's pass D a + and UConn's pass O a -.  Are you using data back to 2003 as shown?

It seems that, given the enormous changes in the programs over the last few seasons, the math would change dramatically if your 2010P was based on just the relevant samples (2008 and 2009).

Most evaluations that factor in enough historical data will favor Michigan.

I dont trust these numbers.  Michigan's PAN rush defense in 2006 was worse than any other year from 03-08.  What????

unless i'm interpreting it wrong, it might be back to the drawing board.

The one thing that keeps going back and forth in my mind is a) Rich Rod has administered a thorough beatdown on UConn on a consistent basis so b) if Denard is in the game then we should be in good shape because he's our best run threat, right?  Your stats give me reason to believe what I want to believe but I'm not quite sold on yet.  It will be a beautiful thing if you are correct and we get to witness D-Rob ruthlessly running the spread 'n shred in all it's ground gobbling glory.

I can't wait until Saturday to find out!

UConn's starting DEs are both true sophomores that weigh 225 and 255 lbs. 

Good luck against our run game, Huskies.

I think M puts up at least 40 points this game.

My confidence is building. I love diaries like this. They give me ammunition to use when I talk to my crotchety old grandpa who's as pessimistic as they come when the subject of Michigan Football comes up.

This is awesome stuff for all my RR/UM haters at work

I like it when the data give us reason to believe.  It makes me feel good for having blind optimism.

Why is Saturday taking so long to get here?!

Hey folks, I am new to this site, which I turned to because some genius decided to stop publishing the Ann Arbor News, I cannot stomach the writing of Michael Rosenberg and Drew Not-So-Sharp in the Free Press, and I am so happy that someone else has stepped up. So good for the founders of mgoblog. While I thank god for Wojo in the News (and what a mismatch it is when he and Rosenberg write on the same days) I firmly believe this site is now the best thing out there covering Michigan football. I'm also in the media business, having previously run the East region sports coverage for The Associated Press before moving to D.C. a few months ago. So I have seen a lot of these East region football teams play and overall, I'm not all that impressed with the Big East. That great Cinci team of last year would've gotten drilled four times in the Big Ten.

In fact, I think one of the reasons Rich Rod's defenses at Michigan have struggled is because he came from the Big East, where teams are simply do not play the same physical, bruising style seen from teams that have given Rodriguez's Michigan teams a lot of problems.

This data is interesting and worth noting, but the problem is these teams play in different leagues, so it must be qualified. The Big Ten is stronger than the Big East, markedly so. No one in the Big East is great on defense. Cinci had one of the worst defenses I've ever seen, and they won the league. (A story for next week, but when it comes to not playing defense, Brian Kelly takes a backseat to no coach. Expect a porous Irish team.)

So, sure, UConn is a scrappy bunch and Edsall is a disciplined, Carr-like caveman who has done a great job. LET'S NOT GET CARRIED AWAY. 8-5 in the Big East doesn't wow me. Being picked as one of four teams that could win a league only tells us no one is that great. UConn has a lot of weaknesses. They don't have great team speed, the QB is very suspect (the better one got suspended), they essentially have one quality RB and they are burdened with - yes, it's true - a secondary that looks as bad as Michigan's only doesn't even have the potential upside of youthful talent.

They'll try to line up and jam the ball down Michigan's throat because, hey, it works for everyone else. That's the key thing to notice here: If we cannot stop a running team that doesn't throw it all that well, we've got problems. Again. Never mind the secondary. Can't stop the run? Done. I expect Michigan to be better against the run, if only because we literally cannot get much worse. And this may not be what anyone wants to hear, since the last thing we'd like is to ponder another new defensive coordinator, but Greg Robinson made Syracuse a lot better just by leaving. Doug Marrone comes in from the New Orleans Saints, has very little to work with, and the Orange defense is immediately, markedly better. Did anyone catch Robinson talking about his defensive philosophy on the Big Ten network? He is incomprehensible. If that's how he teaches it to players, no wonder we stink. The jargon-laden nonsense he spews makes everything sound a lot more complicated than it should. Let's hope 'simplifying' the defense started with getting another coach to handle explaining it to the players. He makes my eyes glaze over.

The only stat that really matters in games in which one team has significantly better talent - but perhaps lacks confidence - is turnovers. Michigan has a lot more talent than UConn - if the Wolverines don't put the ball on the ground or throw it to the other team, Michigan wins. WINS BY 10 POINTS OR MORE. The skill positions are a mismatch, with the possible exception of Todman (who piled up yards, but in the Big East.) UConn does not have great speed on defense or offense. The Huskies come with a very workmanline attack. Our problem going in is that, under Rodriguez, Michigan has become a turnover machine. Everyone seems to fumble. It's the biggest problem the team has had. Under Bo/Moeller/Carr, to beat Michigan, you had to beat us, and our defense was going to make it hard. You just did not often see Michigan beat itself. Under Rodriguez, you just wait for Michigan to screw up and pick up easy scores against our matador defense.

So, I know we all should be respectful and all that, but let's be honest: Michigan should shred this team if it doesn't bring about its own demise with the sloppy play that has been the hallmark of Rodriguez's tenure. 

Great stuff! This has been on my reading to-do list for a couple of days. Finally got to it. As always, interesting, confusing in spots (lol, reader error), but plenty to think about.

Enjoy the game today. Go Blue!!