Cyan or Saiyan?

Submitted by dragonchild on October 11th, 2021 at 1:13 PM

Folks. . .

As I'm sure you all know by now, a terrible sin has been committed.  An atrocious wrong, the likes of which have not been seen since. . . uh, breakfast?  Anyway, I apologize for the disturbing content, but this demands answers:

Gasp!  It's unforgivable.  Inconceivable!  (That word may not mean what I think it means.)  I'm sure Cade's looking at that right now, gripping a loaded revolver, holding a bottle of pills, pressing a cloth-wrapped tantō against his abdomen with both hands (cross-legged and dressed in road whites, of course).

OK, seriously.  Let's take a look.  What sort of bad-bad his he so darn guilty of?

Cade's AY/A is 8.7, good for 4th in the B1G.  He's thrown only one pick; only Jack Plummer of Purdue has fewer.  His PER is 142.3, 7th in conference.  Wait. . . these aren't world-beater numbers, but the stats of a "cyan" QB they ain't, either!

Well, it's MGoBlog.  We don't just look at basic stats.  We put things in context.  So by MGoBlog's own metric, the one-and-only Downfield Success Rate, McNamara is averaging. . .

. . . 67%.

What the hell?!  Why doesn't he look like this??

All right.  As futile as this effort will no doubt turn out, and I'll be eating more negs than a Maizen burner account, by now I hope it's clear that I get it.  This is the case against Cade's cyan:  almost no turnovers, game manager, completion percentage, led the team to 6-0, yadda yadda.  Do I have that down?  Don't anyone say I don't understand.  Not after all this, right?

Now.  I don't speak for Seth, and I don't necessary agree with his decision (again, why TF do I bother with these clarifications. . .), but he's a tad busy with UFR right now, so it's kind of up to us to understand why.

Context.  For real, this time.

Michigan's base running play is split zone.  The way a defensive end (or other EMLoS being read) normally plays split zone (any zone read, really) is to "hedge" between the QB and RB, neither crashing inside nor diving outside but stalling to confuse and delay the read.  This is belly (from 2018, FWIW) but don't hold that against the DE; he doesn't call the plays:

Things are kind of tight on the boundary side of the red zone, but this is basically how it goes for any zone read.  If it's the field side further upfield, it's basically acres of space outside and behind the EMLoS.  He stops in the backfield because if he crashes and the QB keeps, it's a dangerous situation for the defense.

This is how they're playing the 2021 "zone" "read":

Everyone's diving inside to murder the RB.  No one's hesitating, shuffling, or hedging.  There is zero doubt that McNamara is not keeping the ball.  This got stuffed, because obviously.

This goes back to the MGoBlog principle of RPS (Rock, Paper, Scissors).  To make a base play functional, you need the counter, and the counter to the counter's counter.  The latter keep the defense "honest", keeps them from overplaying rock.  Well, with split zone, the counter involves the QB.  There's no "scissors", so defenses are starting to do brazenly unsound things and getting away with it.  The offense, despite its success, is fundamentally broken.  It's frankly amazing they're doing this well.

The irony is that it's so endemic that when the EMLoS defends a Michigan run properly, it's basically a dorf.  Here, Nebraska's Garrett Nelson forgets he's playing Michigan and shuffles as if there's any sort of read on this play, and that's all the room Corum needs to go plaid:

Mind you, Seth's already brought this up on UFR.  Multiple times.

But, passing!

FFS, does everyone have a bolded alter ego?

Not everyone, but you need a devil's advocate voice here, and I wasn't going to settle for one line.

What one line?

"Context.  For real, this time."

Oh, right.  Right!  So, OK, McNamara's limited as a zone read QB.  But he's not the first Michigan QB with this problem, and his passing stats are close to Dangerman territory.  What's the deal?  OK, BAE, I need some emphasis here.  For better or worse. . .

The QB is part of this team's run offense.

Thank you.  First, again for better or worse, Michigan is a run-first teamTwo-thirds of their plays are runs.  That's a staggering ratio, which means Cade is being evaluated differently from most Michigan QBs.  It means the split zone stuff matters.  If I were to come up with a running game equivalent of DSR, we'll call it Run Success Rating, the poor damn offense is working with this:

I tallied it up and his RSR is twenty-nine percent.  And to reiterate, this is two-thirds of the offense.

Even if we just took the straight DSR & RSR numbers and combined them, through six games his "game manager success rating" (GMSR?) is pulled down so badly by his inability to make a read that it sits at 53%.  That is cyan-worthy.  As a game manager.

It's kind of ironic that the blog that grew up watching Denard Robinson doesn't yet have a formal RSR or GMSR, but I suppose until this controversy, there was no need for one.  Either the run/pass ratio was more balanced, or the offense wasn't built around a QB-less zone read.  Unfortunately for Cade's. . . icon, it's not the 1990s anymore.  You can't evaluate a college QB purely on passing.  It's particularly relevant for this Michigan offense, which is run-first, and likes to run split zone.

So why is the offense so effective?

First, let me reiterate that I'm not Seth and I'm not sure I agree with the decision to lock Cade in the cyan oubliette.  I think you have to look at the whole -- not just his running, not just his passing -- and I'd say holistically, as a 2021 QB where you're graded on running as well, that he's. . . meh?  I'd probably just have him as a regular circle.  But what I am gonna do is presume Seth made his decision based on the exact same criteria.  Not just running.  Not just passing.  It's his job to look at everything, and he's doing just that.  I'm saying his position is defensible.

But to answer the question, I think that has less to do with McNamara's "game manager" magick and more to do with A) the offensive line, and B) the RBs playing like All-Americans (with the exception of the Rutgers game).  Haskins and Corum both came in for positives even against Wisconsin's run defense, which essentially means they're as close as you can get to un-defendable.  They're "executing" better than their opponents.  Finally, the defense has performed well above expectations; we've avoided any dreaded shootouts so far.  Prior to Nebraska, the defense allowed 12.8 PPG.

Also, this isn't to completely dismiss that McNamara is at least doing his job as a passer.  Sure, he's taking care of the ball and hitting the occasional deep pass.  But there's a sort of CYA element to his game; it doesn't cost him his QB rating if he consistently leaves his running backs out to die, and it's starting to visibly frustrate his teammates:

Erick All is pointing at the OLB lining up inside of him. He’s also looking at McNamara. Something is being communicated, and the most sensical thing that could be is “RIGHT HERE CADE. THIS GUY IS COMING INSIDE OF ME. READ THAT!” He doesn’t read that. And when All gets up after that he’s like “What the HELL man?”

His passing stats are similarly padded.  He's not doing badly with what he's asked to do, but that's in the context of what he's asked to do, which is so limited that it's not really opening up the offense, either.

Well, I blame the coaches for that.

I do too, but FFFF isn't really a straight-up evaluation of the players.  It's more like a scouting report, which is why every opponent has a "Dangerman" even if that guy is relatively bad.  The cyan means, "Defenses are teeing off on McNamara's limitations in the run game."  If they were running Denard Robinson out there in a West Coast Offense, it'd be the same deal.  You can say the coaches made a mistake, in fact, do just that, but any scouting report on Michigan's offense will start with, "They like to run a zone read and the starting QB, can't."

Jake Ruddock!

Fine.  For what it's worth, the 2015 offense was more balanced, 54% runs.  Second, Rudock could and did run -- he carried 56 times (sacks included) for 166 yards (sacks included) and 4 TDs (sacks incl. . . uh, nevermind).  Cade is on pace to finish with -12 yards.  So this isn't an apples-to-apples comparison.  Rudock was a far superior game manager, whether you look at the whole shebang or just the run shebang.

Graham Mertz!

Sigh.  OK, I see you there.  He was terrible, and his backup was even worse.  If he wasn't worthy of a cyan, HOW DARE YOU SETH!  Well, I don't have an ear in Ft. MGoBlog, but if I were to guess, the only explanation I can offer is the least controversial of all:

It was a mistake.

A doof.  A dorf.  A doink.  A doodoo.  This is a blog, with very short turnaround times for content and the FFFF diagram is used exactly once.  Frankly, it's amazing that they're otherwise perfect with these things.

Really?

What?

#FireSeth

Comments

Michael Scarn

October 11th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^

Split zone is not a read play.

And the unblocked Nelson is intentional, and also not a read.  Bash deletes him from the play because 2 can outrun him any day of the week.

dragonchild

October 11th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^

I'm using "zone read" as an offensive philosophy, not a play per se.  I'm honestly not sure if there's supposed to be a read in split zone, but I don't really care because the counter is definitely a read play.  That's a classic zone read mesh point up there in the screencaps, clearly designed to make the EMLoS think there might be a keep.  Well, McNamara doesn't keep, so the EMLoS can freely attack the RB.  There's no constraint the way Michigan runs it.  This is the RPS concept on full display.  So, I mean, if you're technically correct, it's an utterly pointless correction, and the OLBs are still crashing inside with impunity.

Also, I'm not commenting on Nelson being unblocked.  I'm saying he played it conventionally.  He might not have caught Corum anyway, but he didn't do himself any favors by playing like the ball was going anywhere else.

Michael Scarn

October 11th, 2021 at 2:23 PM ^

I mean it kind of does matter though if you are claiming that Split Zone is the base play (correct) and that Cade is not properly making a read on those plays (incorrect).

You say they don't effectively counter off of Split Zone and then explicitly show an example when they punish that unblocked end for squeezing down by hitting Bash.

There is more than one way to play off split zone, nothing requires that it be a give/keep read.

othernel

October 11th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^

If you think Cade is overrated, you're right.

If you think Cade is underrated, you're right.

 

No sense in fighting about it. If you're someone who believes you need a QB to make pinpoint accurate throws and creates plays, you're going to think he's lacking. If you think you need a QB who avoids mistakes at all costs and doesn't give the other team more opportunities, then you're going to think he's awesome.

He can be both things at the same time.

dragonchild

October 11th, 2021 at 1:33 PM ^

P.S. I think some might argue that Nebraska was a shootout, but my personal criteria is >80 points scored total.  Also, the game was largely won on field goals, which is untenable in a possession-based TD race.

The team has scored more than 40, but at no point yet this season have they needed to score 40.  Credit goes to the defense.

gbdub

October 11th, 2021 at 6:05 PM ^

The second half turned into a shootout. I think a good definition of a "shootout" is less about the score and more about "do both teams face multiple drives where it feels like they must score or the game is lost?" It's that back and forth score-or-die sequence that defines a shootout, and that's very much how the game felt once Cade threw that pick (if not earlier)

RockRockPlanetRock

October 11th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^

Something I've always loved about Ann Arbor and Michigan is how quick people are to demand satisfaction. I was one of those horrible people who worked in a record store and told people to get out because they wore the wrong button on their jacket. it was Mao. I don't regret this. Those 90 pound Commie High bastards who worked at Drakes were hilariously awful to every customer. After one of my first shifts at WCBN I swore the engineer was gonna kill me because I played a Who song. Too commercial. To paraphrase Chuck Heston from Planet of the Apes; Keep the flags of discontent flying. 

 

 

Carpetbagger

October 11th, 2021 at 1:39 PM ^

For one thing, props for the write-up. Well balanced. Second, I think most rational people understand McNamara has limitations. Limitations other teams key on, just like every other player on our team.

He is limited. What he isn't is a "trouble spot" because he can't run a read-option, and is suspect in post-snap reads in general. We have guys who can run better than he can, how about we let them do that.

He appears to know his limitations and works within those limitations. That's smart. He ain't Brett Favre.

I suspect McCarthy will eventually pass McNamara and win the job, but until then he's been good enough to beat Wisconsin and Nebraska, who explicitly dared Michigan to pass to win.

MGlobules

October 12th, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^

Thanks. People are lumping all these things together. There's not a thinking person here who thinks that Cade is looking like a first-round draft pick. The question is whether you choose to put on ashes and wear a sack cloth despite being six and o, and whether you daub the poor bastard in that awful, awful color. When you haven't in the past. 

It's fun to argue about--kept me going for a minute--but no one gives that much of a crap. OTOH, if the site is resolutely negative I sometimes am less inclined to visit, more inclined to write the authors off. It's all very obviously not just on Cade. (As if JJ was speed on wheels? As if even the most knowledgeable football scholar knows WTF a freshman is going to do if handed the keys? How much of the playbook he really knows? Hell, on a huge play Saturday he ran the wrong way and almost lost the ball! Odds are that if he's so gifted and not starting then he's just not ready for prime time.) 

We all know what's gonna happen, though. Biggest play of the year, Cade's gonna keep the ball. . . and either run to glory or get squashed like a bug. I'll be looking forward to what happens with OPTIMISM. Everyone else do you. You're going to anyway. Especially the site architects. They have more of a record for us to extrapolate from than Cade or JJ. 

Blue Vet

October 11th, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^

Kudos for clever use of "oubliette."

Soduk (opposite of "kudos") for neglecting a key element here, the feelz. With Cade not doing all we expected / hoped / wished, if feels disappointing.

Saiyan-ara.

GBBlue

October 11th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^

A quibble. You state:

"and it's starting to visibly frustrate his teammates:

Erick All is pointing at the OLB lining up inside of him. He’s also looking at McNamara. Something is being communicated, and the most sensical thing that could be is “RIGHT HERE CADE. THIS GUY IS COMING INSIDE OF ME. READ THAT!” He doesn’t read that. And when All gets up after that he’s like “What the HELL man?”

That's reading an awful lot into a moment-in-time photo with, obviously, no sound that happened exactly once. I thought Seth made an error including it in his write up. It's completely insufficient to draw the conclusion that Cade's teammates are frustrated with him, and I've seen no other evidence to support that inference.

Blueroller

October 11th, 2021 at 2:18 PM ^

I won't pretend to have the knowledge to judge this either way, but +2 for entertainment value. If the level of football played was anywhere near the level of writing at this blog, we'd be Alabama.

MgofanNC

October 11th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^

I appreciate the time you've taken here to explain the Cyan (I am one of the "deeply" offended, I guess). I understand the missed RPO reads. That is definitely a problem and worth pointing out and being honest about etc. I can see here and have noted in other UFRs how crucial this issue is to putting the defense in crisis and forcing them to essentially not tank our run game by playing only the running back and loading the box. This is, in today's game, bad QBing. 

That said, there are other stresses he does put on a defense (deep ball accuracy mostly) that to my untrained eye make up at least a bit for the RPO miscues/ineptitude. This is the old school way of "unloading" the box. These were not abilities that Second year Shea had nor Milton and are skills I think rather important to the position. I had to go back and check but I would note that in the FFFF for the 2020 Rutgers Defense Milton did not have a Cyan circle. Milton did not have throwing accuracy or particularly efficient RPO abilities to my memory (much like Second Year Shea who also was not Cyaned).  

And this is why, to me, the Cade Cyan is perplexing (I'm not mad really just confused). Cade seems like (again, I'm an idiot on these points) the best QB we've had in sometime (since first year Shea at least). To me, if going into the 2020 Rutgers game Milton wasn't Cyan worthy in essentially this same offense how is Cade worse? Was Milton just crushing every RPO read and the missed deep balls were somehow less significant to our offensive success? It's just a difficult logic to follow to the untrained eye (maybe my gripe here is more about consistency). 

Furthermore, if we are saying that this is the offense and Cade needs to figure it TF out and the Cyaning will continue until moral improves, that too seems inconsistent to me. For one (see Milton discussion above) but then too I would offer the entire Don Brown defense last year. That was a classic case of this is the scheme and this is what we run and if you can't do that then that's the players' fault because the scheme is the scheme and won't be changed. 

I'm sure these decisions are not come to lightly and that Seth has incredibly good reasons for the Cyan (as you've noted well here). I love and have deep admiration for his work on this blog and I'm jealous of the knowledge he's gained over the years as a result of this work. I wish I could make sense of the game on his level. I also hope this offers some more nuanced explanation for the "What the Hell, bro" crowd. Who I think aren't so much offended as confused. 

Thank you Seth and Dragonchild for all your work. This is the last word on this you'll hear from me... probably. 

 

Go Blue!

Dunder

October 11th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^

It is amazing how narrow the line is on this. As I read the game column where Brian discusses the goal to go success rate: How different that is if Cade puts the ball in the right spot on those tight end releases (one v Rutgers one at Nebraska) and just a little more air under the bomb to Sainristil. The deep shot, less of a concern as he has hit quite a few, but UM is going to need those TDs in the red zone the rest of the way. 

JHumich

October 11th, 2021 at 4:05 PM ^

Knowing that the current hobby sport here is to shred anyone who thinks Cade might actually deserve that cyan, I'll go ahead and stick my neck out. The rules are made up, and the points don't matter.

I think you covered most of what makes the cyan understandable. And I thank—yea, laud, even—you for that.

What makes it justifiable is the "correct read" column of the first stat box you threw up there. 9 correct reads out of 26 plays. When he goes o-fer downfield except for one circus catch, "game manager" is the absolute ceiling. And getting 2/3 of the reads wrong is a catastrophic fail if you're trying to be a game manager.

I think he's so close to what he needs to be. I don't think JJ is ready. But I think the cyan is justified.

Teeba

October 11th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^

In the “acres of nothing” photo, there’s a Wisconsin CB on the 50 yard line waiting for Cade to keep. Cade runs laterally, the CB shoots up and tackles him for a 3 yard loss. Seth is so attached to his narrative that it’s affecting his objectivity. It’s sad, really.

gbdub

October 11th, 2021 at 6:17 PM ^

Somebody deserves a "trouble spot" rating for Michigan's read game woes. But I think that someone is Gattis (or Harbaugh), not Cade. "Not so great at post-snap reads" may be a thing with Cade, but he is so consistently wrong, and always in the same direction (hand off when he should keep) that I have to believe he is being instructed to never keep except in very specific situations. A bad reader would sometimes make a bad keep read, but Cade has only kept once where it was a bad idea vs. multiple times a game where he hands off staring at acres of space. 

Given that a) Patterson had exactly the same issue, b) Cade was better at this last year and c) the "solution" to Cade never keeping seems to be "trot out JJ McCarthy to run a blindingly obvious zone read into a QB run blitz", I think the cyan needs to go on the offensive coaching staff. 

The only alternative is that no one on the Michigan coaching staff is capable of coaching a zone read in 2021, but that amounts to the same thing: they are a "trouble spot". 

Carcajou

October 12th, 2021 at 12:22 AM ^

...or perhaps to keep the QBs healthy they are only having the QB read that sometimes, and that can be enough of a threat to slow down the defense and make them aware of it. It could also be that the RB did not adequately press the hole and either cut back when he shouldn't, or vice versa.

gbdub

October 12th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^

I understand being gun shy, but the threat of running QBs being hurt because they run is overblown (and somehow every successful playoff team relies on it every year...).

But if you don't want your QB to run, don't run plays that have a QB run read. The solution is not "run the play but turn the read off". That's just lighting a down on fire because the zone read simply does not work without optioning a guy off. Without the option, you've got a big angry man completely unblocked who can T-bone your RB every single time. 

Find another counter. Don't call a play that requires you to do a thing you refuse to do. 

MGoBlue24

October 11th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^

I really do think the coaches are just trying to keep the quarterbacks alive. We have enough of a past history with a starter who goes out to know how that disrupts the season. We have also seen evidence in the past few weeks of other quarterbacks who were knocked out with disastrous results. Is read option installed so they can go nuts later in the year? I just don’t know, but since everyone else around here is moving the goalposts I guess I can too.

Carcajou

October 12th, 2021 at 12:17 AM ^

"split zone" as I believe it is commonly called, means instead of leaving the backside DE unblocked, there is a FB/HB/TE going opposite the flow of the play to handle the backside DE.

The QB read is only one way of handling the BS DE unblocked. Bootlegs, Reverses or Arounds, even counters are other ways. You don't need a QB read to run zone or counter/power. But having that in your arsenal, either with your starting QB or second QB, is just one more thing for the opponent to have to prepare for and be aware of.

Seth

October 12th, 2021 at 7:26 AM ^

To clarify: Split Zone is a COUNTER to zone read. Split zone is where you bring a blocker (usually a TE, usually Erick All) across the formation and thwack into the guy who thinks he's being read, then run inside of him.

Michigan wants to use Split as a base but the counters to split are all QB read things. Teams are crashing the edge to take away Split Zone, and Michigan can't run the counters to that. Split is a great base play and many teams use it but you have to run counters to your base and Michigan's counters don't actually punish overplaying split because we don't actually read or very badly read the crashing end.

Whether that's McNamara's fault or the coaches putting him in that position it amounts to the same thing: He's a drag on the run game because defenses can tee off on their base running play because Cade can't/won't punish them for that behavior. They can find a different base or find a different quarterback or find a way to get McNamara to make reads.

grumbler

October 12th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^

Whether that's McNamara's fault or the coaches putting him in that position it amounts to the same thing...

Not when it comes to evaluating McNamara's play. If some or all of the plays you believe are reads are, in fact, not reads at all, then you are wrong about the nature of the problem and McNamara's level of play.

None of us know what's true, so I don't have a problem with you putting a cyan on a player you think deserves it, but you should at least acknowledge that it's just an informed guess on your part.

UMForLife

October 13th, 2021 at 10:44 AM ^

TBH, everything in UFR or FFFF is an informed guess. Seth, Brian, or any other analysts (love me some Devin) don't know what the offensive coaching staff told the player. So, we can always assume a cyan is on the coaches even if it is shifted to a WR next week. I think Seth has explained as much as he could. Trying to pin him down seems ridiculous. 

UMForLife

October 13th, 2021 at 10:47 AM ^

Thank you for taking the time to write it Dragonchild. I enjoyed it. I encourage you to write about other controversial causes as much as you could. Well written.