CC: THE_KNOWLEDGE or not, Harbaugh to Michigan is a done deal
Comrades,
The death of Communist Football in Ann Arbor, at the hands of fascist manball counter-revolutionaries, has kept me in hiding. I know many of you have been waiting for THE_KNOWLEDGE to weigh in on the coaching search. However, my crack intelligence analysts are convinced that Harbaugh to Michigan is a done deal, based on publicly available information. Here is why:
1. Lloyd Carr's pro-Harbaugh comments. As you know, Lloyd Carr has stated: "Everyone has an opinion, and I am no different. If I had a choice, I would choose Jim Harbaugh. But it will be Jim Hackett's decision, and that is as it should be." This has been interpreted by the capitalist media as simply Carr expressing his opinion. It is much more than that. Carr, being as close as he is to the Athletic Department, would not express his opinion if it was inconsistent with that of Hackett, because doing so would undermine Hackett's search process. You can be sure that Hackett would be pissed if Carr was pushing Hackett to make a different decision than one Hackett would make anyway. In addition, Carr is almost certain to have inside information as to Harbaugh's interest in the job; he wouldn't advocate for Harbaugh unless he knew that Harbaugh was interested.
2. The collapse of the Vegas betting line. The Vegas Harbaugh bet collapsing from 8-1 to 2-1, and then being pulled off the table, is not merely a sign of decadent western gamblers, but of inside information. Jeff Moss of DetroitSportsRag reached out to Sportsbook.ag, and found out something very interesting:
Hi there….our limits for this market were $2k max win per bet. Its a volatile high risk market where the public may know more than us. It was a novelty bet so none of the bets were there sizable, it was the amount of bets that got our attention as it didn’t matter how low we went, they just kept coming in… We’ve been researching it more and more we can’t explain the action other then (sic) someone might know more about his coaching situation than us. We might consider opening it up again, but at this point it’s off the board.
There was a sudden, and massive, bet on Harbaugh coming to Michigan. In the stock market, such surges are frequently, though not always, the result of inside information.
3. Harbaugh has not quashed the Michigan rumors. Harbaugh was quick to shoot down rumors that he would go to Michigan under fascist AD Dave Brandon. That has clearly not happened in this case. Harbaugh genuinely loves his alma mater, and has zero incentive to harm his relationship with his former teammates and coaches by stringing Michigan along.
4. Hackett has told players that the search will likely be over after Christmas break. The NFL regular-season schedule ends on December 28. The 49ers could make the playoffs, throwing a wrench in this schedule, but Hackett's confidence in that timeline is telling.
5. Everything else we already know. The alienation of Harbaugh at San Francisco; the fact that Hackett as an interim AD has more flexibility to grant Harbaugh broad powers over the football program; the fact that several insiders have described Hackett as a longer-term hire; the fact that Harbaugh is objectively the best qualified candidate by a country kilometer; that Stephen Ross is a strong backer of Harbaugh coming to Michigan.
Even at 2:1 odds, decadent capitalists ought to take the bet that Harbaugh is coming to Michigan. The facts above make it extremely unlikely that any other outcome will take place.
Harbaugh's appointment would, of course, mean the end of Communist Football in Ann Arbor for the foreseeable future. But the arc of football is long, and it bends toward the read-option.
December 6th, 2014 at 10:41 PM ^
may you be right about this.
all in favor of harbaugh to michigan, say 'aye!'
December 7th, 2014 at 10:49 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
There seems to be a discrepancy between what NFL-connected sources say and what Michigan- and Harbaugh-connected sources say. Brian has addressed this extensively, and his assessment is that the Michigan/Harbaugh sources are more accurate.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:16 PM ^
Brian's take on the Rapaport bit:
December 7th, 2014 at 2:14 PM ^
A well connected man in the University community and board has reached out to my dad saying YES it is a done deal. 6 year deal and he'll be making 4 million more than he did with the 49'ers
December 7th, 2014 at 2:38 PM ^
Just because I would really like to see journalists forced to cite MGoJizz in print.
December 9th, 2014 at 1:40 PM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^
Typically, I would lean toward not believing a poster with 1 point named "Mgojizz," but this sounds legit to me.
December 8th, 2014 at 4:35 PM ^
have to take this as a compliment coming from a poster with 31+ thousand points.
December 9th, 2014 at 6:15 AM ^
When asked about this report in his latest press conference, Harbaugh dodged the question and pointedly did not confirm or deny it (see the 7:40 mark; h/t Raskolnikov):
December 6th, 2014 at 10:52 PM ^
December 6th, 2014 at 11:10 PM ^
Apologies, Comrade -- I was thinking of my agent Dennis Ross, a high-ranking American diplomat. Error corrected.
December 6th, 2014 at 10:54 PM ^
Point #2 is very interesting.
December 6th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
December 6th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^
But I need a signed contrct and a press conference. I once (2007) thought that we were getting Les Miles, but we all know how that turned out
December 6th, 2014 at 11:59 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 6th, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
What is genuine is proved in the fire, what is false we shall not miss in our ranks. The opponents must grant us that youth has never before flocked to our colors in such numbers ... in the end, one will be found among us who will prove that the sword of enthusiasm is just as good as the sword of genius.
December 7th, 2014 at 8:49 AM ^
is reading KCNA news releases out of DPRK. Well done, sir.
December 6th, 2014 at 11:16 PM ^
December 6th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
How significant is it that Vegas pulled the Harbaugh betting? Seems like it bodes well for us.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:47 AM ^
No. It means nothing. The line was 8-1. Michigan bet it down to 2-1 but the money kept coming in even at 2-1. So Vegas pulled it -- not that they know anything.
Move along, nothing to see here.
December 7th, 2014 at 9:39 AM ^
Absent solid word from the candidate himself, the odds strengthening and therefore payouts dropping (on him coming to Michigan) is far better information on what is likely to happen than the stacks of insider rumors we've seen.
I think you should read up on how Vegas works.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:09 PM ^
You're delusional if you think Vegas doesn't adjust lines based upon how a wager is being bet. Troll on clown.
December 7th, 2014 at 2:45 PM ^
Of course they do. So, in this instance, it means all the smart money was betting Harbaugh to Michigan, even when the odds when to near-even. Vegas only pulls a bet when an incredible percentage is all betting on one side.
December 7th, 2014 at 3:43 PM ^
Which is essentialy what I said in my first comment.
December 8th, 2014 at 5:03 AM ^
Except you assume that a bunch of randos without inside knowledge drove the line down four-fold. Is that really that realistic? That so many people would place those bets in such a short amount of time if they didn't know something? It's not like this explosion of betting occurred the moment Hoke was fired.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^
The professionals in Vegas are good at making money. They can smell it when people are betting with inside information and that's when they stop taking the bets.
There are a lot of people around Ann Arbor who have heard from credible sources that Jim is coming to Michigan. It's a done deal. They just have to wait for the proper time to announce it.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:36 AM ^
Sportsbook.ag is a terribly rated (D-) sportsbook based in Costa Rica. It is not reputable and it is certainly not "Vegas."
December 6th, 2014 at 11:52 PM ^
I need to take a break from this blog but I can't. This place is starting to make me more and more optimistic about landing Harbaugh.
December 7th, 2014 at 12:00 AM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 7th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^
Спасибо большое, товарищ. Я приветствую новый комиссар американского футбола.
December 7th, 2014 at 1:32 AM ^
Нацисты с их голыми бутлегов имеет преимущественную силу.
December 7th, 2014 at 10:25 PM ^
Мне нравится использовать Google Translate тоже!
December 7th, 2014 at 12:16 AM ^
Это твердое рассуждение .
December 7th, 2014 at 12:26 AM ^
look at Harbaugh sitting in the stands watching something. Even at play he looks freaking intense as heck lol
December 7th, 2014 at 12:53 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:09 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 1:38 AM ^
We pray for this to be true!
December 7th, 2014 at 4:44 AM ^
I really think we're getting Harbaugh
December 7th, 2014 at 5:15 AM ^
Your a fool if you think Vegas doen't know what it's doing!
December 7th, 2014 at 7:58 AM ^
YOU'RE right.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:37 AM ^
Sportsbook.ag is a terribly rated (D-) sportsbook based in Costa Rica. It is not reputable and it is certainly not "Vegas."
December 7th, 2014 at 8:03 AM ^
Harbaugh had agreed in principle (I'm a doubter), then this would also explain the rumor, which claimed to be sourced, about Hackett negotiating with the SF front office. Giving even more fuel to the fire. Of course, were this actually happening it might be best for word to come out sooner, as opposed to later.
JH gets assistants on board and increases the chances of recruits delaying decisions in order to visit UM.
The, apparently organization wide, tension in SF lessons and they all shoot for one last run.
SF moves ahead with its change approach.
The tone and tenor of media frenzy quiets for both organizations.
There is a chance that if "it's happening", we may just get to know sooner, rather than later. That would be lovely.
December 7th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
any more than Martin negotiated with West Virginia.
UM is not bound by any NFL rules on tampering with coaches under contract.
No one can be compelled to stay employed somewhere.
Any negotiation will be with the candidate only.
December 7th, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 8:15 AM ^
December 7th, 2014 at 2:48 PM ^
Which fraternity is this? Just out of curiosity.
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