Trying to think through the past few weeks and the implications short term and long term, and avoiding the more "fire breathing" TRUST IN EVERYTHING OR YOU WANT HOKE 4EVER CROWD.  I think aside from the "win at any cost crowd" there has to be a bit of apprehension of some of the tactics by everyone else.  I do agree "win and none of this matters" but you have to win big (i.e. playoffs and NCs).    I think we are at the point now we have enough situations in a small amount of time at UM, plus the history at Stanford to see this is not a "one off" situation but a pattern.  I don't recall another school having a string of decommits like this in a short period of time -- so to do it annually IMO is going to be an issue.

So the question is will this be an annual event? Too soon to tell.

The 2 paths of Harbaugh recruiting at UM are:

• Path 1:  Nothing changes.  "Accept many and cull in mass quantity" is the new Michigan recruiting method.  We'll be the only school who does this in such large quantity.  This is Jim Harbaugh.
• Path 2:  While there will still be some head scratching things in the future because #Harbaugh, Jim will act a bit more like uhhh.... everyone else in America in that you build relationships with plan B targets but you don't accept a ton of them until your plan As say no.  So you build a draft board - offer all your As, Bs, and Cs to get your 200+ offers but make explicit who can actually accept them early - i.e. the As.

We won't know until the end of the 2017 cycle what path Jim will go but early returns point to path 1 - "Accept many and cull in mass quantities".  To that end an early look at the 2017 class shows a lot of 3* that if 2016 is a reasonable measure, won't be around in Feb 2017.

The counterargument is Harbaugh did not expect such an uptick in recruiting so quickly.  Frankly I find that a bit hard to believe because Hoke had multiple top 15 type classes including a 247 composite #4 and #6.  To believe Harbaugh thought this year he'd have a #26 class and need to build back up to top 5 or 10 "later" - with the Harbaugh brand at his tailwind - seems a bit hard to believe.  But some have proposed that is the reason for the "accept many and cull in mass quantity".

I'll propose a 2nd reason - Jim has an ego and he wanted the Summer Swarm to show immediate results.   I actually believe that more than "we had no idea we could recruit at a top 10 level at UM" theory.  

What I don't get - and why I propose the satellite camps will lose their effectiveness if Jim continues to "accept many and cull in mass quantity" - is why Jim didn't use the camps like most assumed they were created for:

• Build long lasting relationships in parts of the country  UM is not local
• Build goodwill in areas UM is not usually seen.
• Have a chance to meet and evaluate under the radar guys who you can then "committable" offer late in the process as a plan B. 

That would make these camps a big success - you have a ready pool of players you can bring onto campus in December or January that otherwise we would have never seen in person as we juggle our plan As and plan Bs.  It builds goodwill - player and coach and parent gets excited they have a chance at a "committable" Michigan offer.  You are in the position to give a plan B prospect something rather than take away something late in their cycle.  You've built positive relationships in other parts of the country.

At this point it feels like only Flanagan fulfilled this promise and maybe Pratville but a lot of goodwill otherwise has been burnt.

If Jim stays on path 1, the satellite camps IMO become nearly useless.

• The top 250 type kids don't participate in these.
• The lower rated kids go for exposure.
• If lower rated kid gets an offer, he accepts and immediately knows it doesn't mean much in terms of being there in February.
• Lower rated kid who is now Michigan "commit" (wink wink) has little invested in the game as he is constantly thinking about parlaying offer into another offer at another school knowing his chance of remaining a UM commit the next Feb is nearly nil.
• Lower rated kid is useless in recruiting other kids to UM because he has again little to nothing invested in UM itself as he doesn't believe he will be here in the end. 
• Camaraderie among fellow recruits in class is tarnished when 30-40% believe they won't be around in the end anyhow.
• More tarnishing of reputation, more upseting parents, more upseting local HS coaches by this idea of "offering and culling".  Again you are taking something away from them (offer given, offer taken) rather  than giving them something (offer given only) if you offer a satellite camp guy in June....
• For a month rather than positive press you will get "here we go again" and "remember Swenson and Weaver" stories in the media as future Summer Swarms happen.

I really don't get the strategy of staying with path 1 for Jim Harbaugh mostly because there is zero benefit to do it in his situation.

• This is not Stanford where the football players have a distinctly higher academic standard so you really do need to "commitable" offer 40 to get 25 into the class.
• This is Michigan, not San Diego - people are aware of the school.  What benefit did offering recruits you didn't really want in the end generate - did high end recruits look at those lower rated guys and say "I want in because generic 800 ranked guy is in?"
• You have an NFL pedigree now as a HC - you didn't have that at Stanford. Everyone knows who you are now - not like at Stanford.
• There is no value add to attract high level recruits by this process of accept and reject of lower level recruits.

Summary - there is no reason to do this "accept and cull" in large quantities.  I get doing it in 2-3 cases where a top 100 player suddenly shows interest at a position you may have a generic 650th ranked guy.   But doing it with 1/3rd+ of the committed class makes no sense at Michigan, with a HC everyone knows.

As I've said in many posts I don't care about what the media or other fanbases or even other college coaches say.  I do care what recruits say to each other, what parents say to each other, what HS coaches say to each other.   And to believe a scorched earth tactic won't have an effect on the latter 3 groups if repeated annually is naive.   Even with Meyer and Saban you here 2-3 "questionable" cases a year - and some years 0 or 1.  Path 1 will lead to 8-10+ cases a year and IMO hurt the next coach here with a lot of broken relationships with HSs even if Harbaugh finds a way to succeed in spite of it.

Simple solutions:

• Be your normal zany self in how you recruit but utilize commitable offers like every other staff in America.  Emphasize plan As while building relationships with plan Bs and Cs (camps would be excellent for the latter) - but only make the plan As committable early in the process in MOST cases.  (Always an exception or two but it can't be half the class purged)   So like any school you shoot out your 200 offers but of those only 15-20% are "acceptable" until say the December or January ahead of the Feb signing date.
• When offering plan Bs and Cs early make everything explicit.  In writing works if you don't like the phone.  "You are still being evaluated and will continue to be evaluated as with all other recruits.  If we believe your ability to play meaningful time at the University of Michigan is lower immediately after your senior season you will be notified quickly and directly (i.e. not hinting but talking to a 17 year old like a 50 year old professional) so you can move onto a situation that offers you a better chance to fulfill your football goals.  You will receive a FedEx'd letter from the football program followed up by a phone call by your immediate recruiter and/or the head coach to explain this change in condition by Dec 1st at the latest."