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The Question:

HELLO BASKETBALL

Alex: Welcome back, basketball.

Brian: This year we get to have two sports that are fun!

Ace: Hutch just gave you a look.

Seth: Defending national runners-up hockey team doesn't do it for you?

Brian: This year we get to have many consecutive sports being fun!

Alex: Hey, I personally think Michigan clubbing teams 58-46 will be fun, but ymmv.

Seth: Yay Sports. Also I had a sibling mention it is Michigan State basketball season and they are expected to win the Big Ten again is this true?

Ace: In a technical sense. For reasons.

Brian: Okay, let's start with overall conference outlook. Who wins the league?

[After THE JUMP: Who do you think?]

-------------------------------------------

Beware the defending champs [Patrick Barron]

Ace: Michigan is going to figure it out on offense in time for their juggernaut defense to lead them to a conference title in a relative down year.

Alex: I have MSU #1 default, but I really have no idea.

Ace: Starting four Kenny Goins!

Alex: No team will be better than UM, MSU, or Purdue was last season.

Brian: I really really don't get MSU in the one slot except as a default "dunno" option. Which everyone is apparently doing.

Alex: I just can’t convince myself to pick anyone else.

Ace: I’d understand it more if it weren’t accompanied by people also slotting them in the top ten nationally.

Alex: Yeah they shouldn’t be a top 15 type team.

Ace: Their backcourt depth and roster balance again projects to be a problem. And they lost all their best dudes. Except Cassius Winston, who needs to learn how to play defense.

Brian: They'e going to be playing two true bigs the whole year; they don't have any guard depth; I feel like Winston's 3P% is going to backslide big-time now that he's the alpha dog.

Alex: Michigan: can’t shoot, will struggle to score. Nebraska: is Nebraska. Purdue: lost four starters. OSU: lose the POY and other key players. Indiana: was bad last year.

Seth: Have Nick Ward's ankles healed?

slackbot:

David: Does Iowa care about defense?

Alex: No. I feel like they quit on Fran last year too and I'm pretty shocked nobody fled.

Ace: So it’s Michigan and MSU in some order and then…

Indiana? Can Romeo Langford be that good right off the bat?

Alex: My affirmative case for State is this: they have the best backcourt in the league and a point guard that can elevate other players. Ward and Tillman will be a killer 1-2 punch at the five. Their wing depth is shaky, but I do think Izzo can wring plenty of regular season wins out of this roster.

Seth: If we are in the bag for five-star freshmen, Maryland belongs in the conversation.

Brian: I think Michigan wins the league as their offensive issues end up being significantly overstated. "Can't shoot" is relative. Michigan was 56th in EFG last year. They were average from three. They now get an upperclass PG who was absolutely dealing in the open practice. Wagner's loss will hurt but Teske is an upgrade on D.

Alex: Spoiler alert but the rest of my power rankings are 1 State, 2 Michigan, 3 Nebraska, 4 Indiana.

Ace: I kinda like Nebrasketball this year, too.

Seth: Here comes the point where Brian gets excited about...

Brian: You know I am the president of the Isaiah Roby fan club.

Seth: Yep.

Alex: Michigan will have some clunkers, but that defense is more than good enough to get them to the title.

Ace: My guess is those clunkers will be concentrated early in the season and there won’t be as many as we expect. I’ll believe a full-blown “this team can’t shoot” situation out of a Beilein offense when I see it.

Alex: You put it well on the podcast with regards to Roby - he's mobile, switchy, can protect the rim, and spread the floor a little bit. Can't ask for more than that from a modern five. They really took off last year when Miles played him there regularly.

We watched Michigan put up 5 bad performances in 6 NCAA Tournament games - and now they're down their best offensive player by far and two more core guys who were quality offensive players.

We're Roby truthers. [MG Camparedon]

Brian: Nebraska

1. returns everyone except some low usage guys
2. should have been a nine-seed last year by Wins Above Bubble
3. was Yaklich-esque at preventing three launches (4th nationally)
4. can't shoot

Alex: 5. Has James Palmer, who's a first-team all-conference type guy as a scoring wing archetype.

Brian: I think they're going to be a solid tourney team and have more upside than that because despite many of their guys being old they take a ton of transfers so they still have chemistry that can develop more rapidly than you might think.

They just have to find some way to get Glynn Watson down to 15% usage. Dude shot 38/29 last year and had 22% usage.

Alex: IIRC, he was battling a nagging injury of some kind.

Ace: His shot selection was also bad.

Alex: I also think they'll be a solid tourney team, but I'm cautious because it's Nebraska.

Ace: Yeah, I’d probably feel better about them if they were a different school.

Alex: I basically feel about them the way I would have felt about Penn State had Carr returned.

Ace: On the opposite end of that, Wisconsin is the other team we haven’t mentioned that is at least kinda getting a chance?

Alex: I thought you guys kinda undersold them on the pod.

Ace: I’m not buying it but I’ve already developed an irrational hatred for Davison.

Bad Dravison.

Brian: It is an entirely rational hatred.

Ace: Good point.

Alex: They have either the best or second-best player in the league, were super young last year, had a couple of injuries (Trice, Kobe King, and Davison kept on separating his shoulder), and everyone's back.

Ace: This hatred has always been here.

Alex: Dad Bravison. He is the most Wisconsin player ever, which seemed like an insurmountably high bar until he stepped right over it.

Ace: I feel like, no matter how skilled the guy is, it’s bad when you need to get a third of your team’s assists out of your center.

Brian: Davison took off in the second half of the conference season. ORTGs: 143, 88, 134, 123, 114, 148, 115, 95. This corresponded with a 5-3 run with wins over Purdue and Maryland; the losses were by 3 and 5 to MSU and by 11 to Michigan.

Alex: He's gonna be legit. I take no pleasure in reporting this.

Ace: But I haaaaaaates him.

There was an injury reason for him to play poorly before that, too.

Brian: I think they'll be in the tourney but it's too far to go for those guys to threaten for the league title.

Getting D'mitrik Trice back doesn't move the needle for me.

Ace: The supporting cast doesn’t look great and I’m not at all sold on Greg Gard.

Alex: Yeah Gard is no Bo Ryan, at the very least.

Seth: Trice's mom needs to go

Ace: (ululates)

Brian: Okay so my pick for the league winner is Michigan.

Alex: Wisconsin also lost out on a local dude (Tyler Herro) who decommitted and went to Kentucky instead and that might really hurt.

Seth: I haven't looked at the League schedules does anybody have a Michigan State run this year?

Ace: Everybody else at least somewhat stinks, Michigan wins narrowly over MSU.

Brian: It's a 20-game schedule so they're more balanced.

Alex: I pick Michigan State to win the league, lose to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament (again), and then lose 36-33 to a 13 seed while missing 20 threes in the process.

Brian: Who else makes the tourney?

Seth: Purdue has Carsen Edwards. That's enough.

Alex: State, Michigan, Nebraska, Indiana, Wisconsin, Purdue.

Brian: They also have Ryan Cline, who's a top-end three and D guy, and Matt Haarms, who is a 7'3" windmill.

Seth: Maryland.

Alex: Purdue also adds a good grad transfer.

Seth: Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Nebraska.

Brian: MSU, Michigan, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin, Indiana, Iowa

Ace: Michigan, MSU, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa

Alex: Iowa!

Brian: Holy shit I'm not the only Iowa.

Alex: I had them 12 but that's probably too low.

Ace: Iowa is mostly a protest vote against the rest of the conference. Also Jordan Bohannon is a baller and they have a lot of talent if they even bother to half-ass it on defense.

Brian: All Iowa has to do is be sort of bad on defense.

Alex: Iowa gave up almost 1.2 PPP in Big Ten play last season which is really amazing

Brian: Like, Beilein Defensive Nadir level.

Ace: It was an astonishingly bad year. That was Rutger defense.

Alex: Right - the thing is that "sort of bad" would be a huge improvement. Hey, Rutger is good at defense now.

Ace: I meant philosophically.

Brian: Hopefully they spent the offseason doing nothing but repping 2-3 zone.

But can he D? [MG Campredon]

Seth: Is Bohannon a baller or did you mean that in a Trevor Siemian kind of way because he was so good against us?

Alex: He is good.

Ace: That dude almost killed M’s Big Ten Tournament run, he’s a legit baller.

Brian: Just be a crappy 2-3 zone! And get back in transition! You were a top 20 offense and you return your whole damn team!

Ace: Put your long arms in the air! Wave them!

Alex: The Big Ten is pretty good at PG this year. Edwards, Winston, Z, Cowan, Bohannon.

Garza should be an intimidating force down low with those eyebrows.

Iowa's just a funky-ass team. Pemsl at the three sometimes? Like what the hell.

Ace: They’ve had success with extremely weird, tall teams before.

Brian: Garza feels like he's going to blow up. Just a little bit more from three and he's Eyebrows Moe

• 24% usage, 13% OREBs, 12% TO rate, 5.9 fouls drawn/40.
• 60/35 shooting

LFG

Ace: Brian’s found his new Roby.

Brian: And they have Tyler Cook and Bohannon.

Just be regular bad on defense, I'm begging you.

Ace: Yeah we should probably mention the guy who actually flirted with the NBA.

Alex: the "NBA"

Ace: Fair. But still!

Alex: Apropos of nothing, Corey Sanders left for the NBA and signed a G-League contract. Carr is in Italy.

Brian: Seth didn't have Indiana.

Alex: Indiana will be good.

Ace: Yeah, Juwan Morgan is pretty dang good and Langford will make a big splash.

Seth: I kind of figured this is year zero.

Last year being Year-1. [MG Campredon]

Alex: Morgan is super underrated and very good as a playmaking five, and that roster has more talent than all but a few teams they'll play. Last year was - two losses to in-state mid-majors, and blowout losses at that. Illinois is in year zero again though.

Ace: Woof, indeed.

Brian: They really tested the limits of positionless basketball. They had one guy over 6'7" and he played about 10 MPG.

Ace: Indiana gets De’Ron Davis back. He’s 6'10", mean, and skilled.

Alex: Achilles injury though, hard to get back 100% from that, ever.

Ace: Ugh, I forgot it was an Achilles and not a knee injury.

Brian: Does anyone have a handle on how good Romeo Langford is? I assume Quite Good, but there are levels.

Alex: I mean, shoot, he could be the best freshman the Big Ten has seen since maybe Jared Sullinger?

Ace: Largely thanks to Tom Izzo, but agreed. He’s lanky and skilled and athletic.

Brian: So he's a (temporary) program changer?

Ace: Most top five-level guys are if you actually play them.

Alex: Maybe.

Ace: He’s right on the edge of that.

Brian: I mean, Mo Bamba wasn't really. There are levels.

Ace: True, but center is a little different given the usual development timeline. You gotta, uh, grow into an 8-foot wingspan.

Alex: Langford projects to be a prototypical two-way two guard, but to Brian's point, he might not a be a star right away.

Ace: And if he’s not then IU could be in some trouble.

Alex: Could be that he really hits his stride when he gets to the league, and not before. Indiana does have a lot of other talented pieces though—Jerome Hunter should be extremely good, maybe sooner rather than later.

Brian: Nobody had Maryland.

Ace: Seth did!

[MG Campredon]

Seth: I am also is the least basketball informed of all of you and don't make a very good Devil's Advocate.

Ace: Though I kinda feel like Maryland is a poor man’s Indiana this year?

Brian: Ace and I neglected to mention that they have a five star C and another top 50 player in their recruiting class on the podcast.

Ace: I can see them making the tourney but it’ll be because of… yeah, that. Losing Huerter hurts.

Alex: They have a good PG, a potential NBA player at C, and a terrific recruiting class, but I'm also not sold on them because Turgeon does less with more.

The Mathlete: Kenpom has Indiana and Maryland with almost identical O & D ratings

Ace: Yeah, I’m in wait-and-see mode with Turgeon.

Alex: Jalen Smith might be better as a five but he reminds me a lot of Jaren Jackson.

Ace: Remember when Melo Trimble was gonna take over the league?

Alex: I think I've seen what I needed to see from Turgeon. Can recruit, has no depth, usually pretty good but not great.

Ace: We should probably mention that BRUNO FERNANDO has some NBA hype.

Alex: I never understood that.

Ace: He’s big and athletic? That’s usually enough to get you on the radar when you’re young.

Alex: He has an NBA body. Does not have an NBA feel, in my opinion. Still raw, but who knows.

Ace: Torvik projects him to average 12 and 7.

Seth: That is a common problem with Maryland guys. They get rated based on how good they will be as NBA players in 10 years.

Alex: I could see that. I think Maryland might have better lineups with Smith at the five, but then again, no depth. Especially on the wing.

Ace: I foresee a lot of forced shots from Cowan because they have no other choice. Also could see an annoying number of those going in.

Brian: i just want to point out that I made a joke about Bruno Fernando being a Portuguese soccer player and their World Cup team literally had a Bruno Fernandes

Ace: lol

/giphy bruno fernando

#B1G

Brian: /giphy bruno fernandes

Ace: So… Northwestern? No takers?

Trollll in the dungeon! [JD Scott]

Brian: Pass.

Alex: Y'all forgot to mention that they added Ryan Taylor as a grad transfer

Seth: Northwestern feels poised for an implosion

Brian: They've got their best recruiting class ever but it's more of an "ask again next year" class.

Ace: Even with Taylor their guard depth is alarming.

Alex: Taylor averaged 21 PPG at Evansville, and took 41% of his team's shots while on the floor. They also have a transfer who started at Boston College who becomes eligible on the wing. And no point guard.

Brian: that seems like not enough points for 41% of your shots

Ace: I know the MVC is better than the MAC but if he experiences any sort of Jaaron Simmons-like dropoff they’re screwed.

Alex: But they do have Miller Kopp, aka K I L L E R M O P P coming in.

Ace: There will be photoshops.

Alex: Yeah they're probably not gonna be good.

Seth: No leadership no point guard and nobody likes the coach, plus a bunch of guys who came expecting to play early. Implooooosion.

Ace: So you’re saying they may have a mess to clean up? Collins may know a guy.