WHAT	#3 Michigan (25-6, 13-4 B1G) vs #1 Louisville (28-4, 16-2 ACC)
WHERE	Intrust Bank Arena Wichita, Kansas
WHEN	9:00 pm Eastern Monday, Mar. 28th
ODDS	538: Louisville 73%  Vegas: Louisville -4.5
TELEVISION	ESPN

THE OVERVIEW

After knocking off South Dakota in a gritty defensive battle Saturday night, Michigan Women's Basketball finds themselves in their first ever Elite Eight. It is already the best season in program history, but now they are one win from another leap in elevating the program to a new level of prestige: the Final Four. Doing so will not be easy, and will require erasing the most embarrassing defeat of the season. Can the Wolverines do it? It will take a nearly flawless performance, but sometimes everything goes right. 

THE US

[Steve Adelson]

Michigan overcame the stout defense of South Dakota on Saturday to grind out a nasty 52-49 win. It was not pretty, but style points count for nothing when it comes to winning in March. Naz Hillmon led the way with 17 points and 10 rebounds, including six on the offensive glass. She did turn it over four times, but her offensive presence- and ability to play 38 minutes- were key in pushing Michigan to victory in this game. The other shining star was Laila Phelia, who chipped in a humongous 14 points. She's spurred the Wolverines to a few big wins this season, but that was the biggest effort of the freshman guard's collegiate career so far, scoring those 14 in just 23 minutes, and making two three pointers. Leigha Brown had a middling performance, scoring 10 points but turning it over 3 times and only shooting 4/12 from the field. 

The rest of the Michigan team was pretty quiet. Maddie Nolan got a number of open looks for three, but she was cold all night long and finished a rough 1/9 from beyond the arc. Emily Kiser played a role in helping Michigan win the rebounding battle (9 boards), something I listed as a key to the game in the preview for that game, but wasn't a major factor offensively. Amy Dilk made a couple shots but finished with four points, and those six players were the only six to appear on the score sheet for the Maize & Blue. It was that sort of rock fight, but it's exactly what was likely, given how good South Dakota is defensively. More importantly, Michigan played well defensively themselves, allowing just one Coyote to score in double figures, and it was the third consecutive game in this NCAA Tournament that Michigan has held the opposition to under 50 points. Not bad. You're probably going to need more offense, in addition to the same caliber of defense, to beat Louisville, though. 

[Click the JUMP to read about Louisville]

THE THEM

[Dennis Nett/Syracuse.com]

Louisville is a terrific basketball team. The sport of women's basketball at the NCAA level is one where there remains a bit of a gap between the upper echelon of title contenders and the second tier. Louisville is firmly in that upper echelon, earning a number one seed, although they were the fourth of the one seeds according to the committee (and would be sizable underdogs in the final four against 1st overall seed South Carolina). The Cardinals started the season with a loss to Arizona (who got a four seed in the NCAAs) but then did not lose again until mid-January, going on a 15-game winning streak, which included wins over ranked teams like UCONN, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, and oh yes, Michigan. We'll circle back to that game in a minute. 

Louisville mostly cruised through ACC play, finishing 16-2 in conference, though a one-point loss on the road to UNC cost them a share of the regular season championship. They would not have gotten the top seed in the ACC Tournament even if they had won that game, as they lost the lone head-to-head meeting with NC State (who finished 17-1 and are also a one seed in the NCAAs, playing tonight in the Elite Eight as well), but a share would have been a banner all the same. Louisville went into the ACC Tournament as the 2nd seed but surprisingly lost by two to Miami in their first game to finish the regular season 25-4.

The Cardinals got to host first round games, defeating (16) Albany and (8) Gonzaga, the latter in a mildly competitive game, before knocking off (4) Tennessee on Saturday night in Wichita. Louisville was definitely in command of that game, but it wasn't a runaway either– the Vols trailed by just two early in the fourth quarter before the Cardinals went on an 8-0 run to wrest control back. The final score finished 76-64 in favor of Louisville. 

[UL Athletics]

The Cardinals are a balanced team in terms of what they can do to you. They're 38th in scoring offense at 72.5 points per game and 18th in scoring defense at 55.3 points against per game, which comes out to a net average margin of +17.2, ranking 9th best in the NCAA. Louisville shoots 36.01% from three, which ranks 17th, but they don't take all that many relative to the country, outside the top 150 in three point attempts on the season. The big key to their offense is the ability to combine that smooth stroke with high efficiency from two, equaling out to ninth in the country in FG% at 45.7%. 

Louisville has a big three offensively, which starts with 6'1" forward Emily Engstler. Engstler was named to both the All-ACC First Team and the All-ACC Defensive Team, a menace at both ends of the floor who is incredibly versatile. On offense she can bully her way inside, but also step out to shoot the three at over 40% (averaging two attempts per game). She hits the glass hard, reeling in a team-leading 9.2 rebounds per game, to go with 12.0 points per game. On defense, Engstler is the team leader in blocks, averaging nearly two per game, and also the team leader in steals, averaging over 2.5 per game. A disruptive and effective presence, Engstler will likely do battle with Naz Hillmon in the matchup to watch. 

[UL Athletics]

Beyond Engstler, there's 5'7" guard Hailey Van Lith. An All-ACC First Team selection, she leads the team with 14.3 points per game, shooting 42.8% from the floor and 36.1% from three. 6'0" guard Kianna Smith is the final member of the Cardinals' Big Three, and she and Van Lith are the two most frequent three point gunners, with Smith being the most common trigger-(wo)man on the team. She averages five attempts from three per game and knocks them down at 37.4%. Chelsie Hall is the other true (5'7") guard next to Van Lith, who helps handle the ball on the perimeter and is second on the team in steals. The final piece to the starting lineup is 6'3" center Olivia Cochran, averaging 8.4 points per game and 5.2 rebounds per game. She rarely attempts threes, which could be an interesting matchup with Emily Kiser, as the Michigan center is much more willing to step out from beyond the arc. 

Louisville uses their bench quite a bit, with five different players logging at least 10 minutes per night on average off the bench, and ten total players (five starters + five bench pieces) saw the floor in the game against Tennessee over the weekend. The two big ones to talk about are 6'5" Liz Dixon, a monstrous presence who frequently spells Olivia Cochran at the five, and reserve guard Mykasa Robinson. Robinson is a fascinating player, logging 20 minutes off the bench, a defensive hound (All-ACC Defensive Team) who somehow can guard all five positions despite being only 5'7". Also in spite of her size, she has only attempted five threes this entire season and is a bafflingly bad free throw shooter, 13/29 on the season(!) and 52.6% for her career. There seems to be some Zavier Simpson in her. Payton Verhulst, Norika Konno, and Ahlana Smith round out the bench as more minor pieces. 

THE LAST MEETING

These two teams played back on December 2 at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville and it was a disastrous game for Michigan, their most disastrous loss of the season. The Cardinals were gangbusters in the first half and led 39-15 at halftime, suffocating Michigan defensively and pouring it on at the other end. The second half was fought more to a draw but in large part due to the fact the game was already over. Here are the highlights, if you can stomach it: 

Even though Michigan got off to a quick lead in the game, the remainder was pretty much an "everything goes right" scenario for the Cardinals. They dominated on the glass, snatching fifteen offensive rebounds and outrebounding the Wolverines 39-24, neutering Michigan's most common advantage in games. Beyond that, Louisville shot 9/20 from three, held Michigan to only 2/15 from beyond the arc, and owned the transition game too, scoring nine fast break points to Michigan's zero. Defensively Louisville was excellent, turning Michigan over twenty four times including five from Naz and Danielle Rauch, as well as four from Leigha Brown. Engstler, Kianna Smith, and Van Lith all scored in double figures and made at least two triples each. 

There's really no other way to put it than it was a total beatdown and an embarrassment for Michigan. The good news, though, is that none of that matters. Tonight's game will start fresh, 0-0 on the scoreboard. The Wolverines are going to have to play a whole lot better, but there're reasons why they can and at the very least make this a competitive game. The Vegas line is 4.5 and not 15 for a reason. Tennessee was a similar caliber of team to Michigan and they were in a one-score game in the fourth quarter against Louisville on Saturday night. Hell, Miami is a worse team than Michigan and beat Louisville in the ACC Tournament. It's a new game tonight, but pulling off the upset is going to require a complete 180 in every facet of the game from what happened in December. 

KEYS

[Steve Adelson]

Win the rebounding battle this time. It's pretty hard to imagine a scenario where Michigan wins this game if they don't win the rebounding battle, and they probably have to do it decisively. Louisville is a good rebounding team (+5.4 average margin) but Michigan is an exceptional one (+10.5). The tenacity of the Wolverines on the glass has powered them to key wins time and time again, including on Saturday against South Dakota. Tennessee is one of only five teams better at rebounding than Michigan, and a big reason they were able to fight Louisville to the end was snagging 23 offensive rebounds on Saturday night, finishing +16 in the rebounding column. That seems like a big piece of the formula for an upset tonight. 

Make some threes. Michigan has gotten to this point in the tournament because they have put up stellar defensive performances, but at some point, they need the offense to come on-line. And one part of the offense that's been sorely lacking is the three point shooting, which sits at an ugly 10/47 (21.3%) for the tournament thus far. Maddie Nolan has been in a funk and tonight would be a great time to break it. Michigan will need to play their best basketball to beat a team like Louisville and improving from three is a part of the offense that will need to whip into shape. Hard to imagine the Wolverines pulling the upset if they shoot 2/15 from three against Louisville again. 

Play loose and confident. The fact of the matter is that Michigan and Louisville are two programs in very different places. Louisville has been a top tier WBB program for years now. They've played in two national championship games, and this is their fourth straight trip to the Elite Eight. They've been here before and more crucially, they need to win this game to feel like their season is anything approaching a success. Michigan is a formerly decrepit program that is soaring to new heights and has very much not been here before. One team has the weight of expectations, the other one is playing with house money after Saturday night. No one expects Michigan to win this game, especially after what happened in December. Let that be a reason for Michigan to be loose and confident. Play your game, compete, and take a few chances. You've got nothing to lose and maybe you pull off the big upset. No shame if you can't. 

PREDICTIONS

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