[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Unverified Voracity Is On The Moon Comment Count

Brian August 2nd, 2019 at 10:54 AM

Club of the moon. As they say: wherever you go, go blue.

Not a weird flex. A normal flex. A powerful flex.

Keith Jackson is auto-embed. From Dr. Sap:

[After THE JUMP: run or pass. There is no try.]

Run/pass balance assertions. There is a particular genre of playcalling fight that breaks out on the internet that's always rubbed me the wrong way. It usually centers around the fact that running is not very efficient compared to passing on a yards per play basis. This is true but not always the whole story, and the Athletic had an article that kicked over the anthill recently. The article itself is nuanced and actually concludes something reasonable…

After looking at all the research and talking with experts in the field, it seems clear the hard-line philosophy of the importance of establishing the run is outdated and disproven. But there is still value in being able to run the ball. It’s a tricky balance, but in building a team, general managers and coaches have to put more emphasis on investing in a strong passing game, but at the same time, they can’t lose sight of creating an efficient run game.

In 2018, of the top 10 teams in offensive DVOA (Football Outsiders’ measurement for a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play with a league average based on situation and opponent), seven were in the top 10 in rushing success rate. Eight of 10 had winning records and made the playoffs. So while there isn’t a correlation with traditional rushing success stats, there are correlations with running, winning and efficient offensive production.

…but a couple of rounds of telephone on twitter resulted in a lot of bad takes based on it.

Until now I haven't had a way to express my frustration with those takes succinctly:

It may be true that teams should throw the ball more, but just pointing at YPA versus YPC is not a case.

From a Michigan perspective I'm mostly interested in an offense that has effective play action because it looks like a run play Michigan actually, you know, runs. It's incredible how frequently that has not been the case in recent history. Al Borges had a lethal running quarterback and never attached play action to the power read that was the heart of the offense (when they weren't putting Denard under center). Last year's offense changed its run game midseason and most of the long balls were straight dropbacks with no attempt to fool anyone.

Run vs pass is a false dichotomy. Package vs grab-bag is more relevant, but also impossible to discuss with some stats. I want defenders in conflict.

So does Harbaugh. On hiring Gattis:

"What made me want to commit (to this) was really the quarterback position. Shea Patterson and Dylan McCaffrey, their explosive ability to throw and run," Harbaugh said last week. "They're used to that. Shea was used to that. Found that Shea was really better in the shotgun after being with him for the first season. We went more to it as the year went on last year. Also Dylan's ability to just get out and go. To run. Tremendous running ability.

"They're comfortable in this and this was driven by that. ... (Redshirt freshman) Joe Milton and (true freshman) Cade McNamara are suited for it as well. As are most quarterbacks who are coming out (of high school)."

What is this, a crossover episode? I am one of the foremost proponents of crazy rule changes and this scratches the itch:

In what feels like a modified version of hockey substitutions, a WNBA spokesperson confirmed to SB Nation each team will be able to deploy one live-ball sub per quarter during Saturday evening’s event.

These special substitutions will see one player in a designated “check-in spot” near mid-court wait for a player to tag her onto the floor. Only the team on offense can swap a player in while the ball is live. Additionally, a player throwing the ball in-bounds cannot be live-subbed. Regular substitutions will occur throughout the game as well.

All sports should experiment with rules from other sports. Bowling should have power plays. Etc.

Just in case. If 2021 QB commit JJ McCarthy ever pulls this out in a game it should definitely be in the waning moments of a Michigan State game:

You know, to send a message.

Our coach was recently in the NBA. Juwan Howard's take on Isaiah Livers is a different perspective:

"Man, so much talent," first-year head coach Juwan Howard said last week when asked about Livers. "So skilled. Big guard. Great attitude. Excellent work ethic. I know we haven't started the season, so no minutes right now, no games being played, but he's steady. I don't see anything changing for him when it comes to his attitude and how he approaches the game. We're going to lean on him a lot, and I trust that he will produce."

From an NBA perspective, yes, that is a guard. The NBA is a terrifying place.

Beecher shows out. Incoming freshman hockey forward Johnny Beecher is at the World Junior Summer Showcase with a large number of other top prospects, and he is perhaps the talk of the camp:

Easy to get buried on last year's NTDP; Beecher produced at a level that didn't look amazing but may have been better once you drilled down into his TOI and power play shifts, or lack thereof.

Cam York and 2020 goalie commit Erik Portillo are also in camp; Bob Miller on York:

York scored a goal in Sunday’s 7-1 USA Blue’s victory over Finland and has logged heavy minutes on both special teams, power play and penalty killing. He’s expected to serve in those roles for Michigan this fall, hopefully replacing former star Quinn Hughes' duty running the power play. While Hughes succeeded by his elite puck control, York is more of a pinpoint passer in man-advantage situations.

York will probably be less up and down than Hughes.

Guys in limbo down the road. 2021 commit Connor Levis is one of just a few WHL first rounders to not sign. No update on him in almost a month. No news is good news. Ditto Andrei Bakanov, who was picked in the CHL import draft by Guelph. He got traded for a conditional USHL pick and seemed very, very gone but if so it seems like there should have been an announcement by now. Instead Twitter is silent.

Etc.: Wonky Don Brown podcast. Franz as a shooting guard.

Comments

DonAZ

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:26 AM ^

Two sounds of my youth growing up in Howell: Keith Jackson on Saturday afternoons, and Ernie Harwell for night games on WJR 760.  It's hard to pick a favorite.  Each draws my sentimental emotions in different ways.

Oh, and Ringneck pheasants crowing in the harvested cornfields ... which I miss living in Arizona and West Virginia.

DelhiWolverine

August 2nd, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^

There has never been anyone better at calling radio play by play than Ernie Harwell. He gave you all the information you needed to understand the game situation when joining midstream, had great anecdotes and excellent trademark phrases. (Eg “That’s two for the price of one for the Tig’s” after a double play). He didn’t detract from the game, never made it all about him, and had a great broadcast voice. 

I have never heard anyone since come close to his level at his craft. 

DonAZ

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^

One of the things I remembered from listening to Harwell was the way he'd go quiet and just let the sound of the ball park be the radio signal.  He'd do that for 5 or 10 seconds, then come back when the game action was about to begin.  On those summer nights in the mid-1970's with my little AM radio, it brought Tiger Stadium to me.  It was great.

DonAZ

August 2nd, 2019 at 3:28 PM ^

Bob Ufer was the voice of Michigan football.  Whenever the Michigan game was "radio only," it was Ufer's voice that supplied the play-by-play.  But, as you say, "in his own way" ... and there's nobody that has ever matched the playful enthusiasm of Ufer's call.  He was one-of-a-kind.

The Keith Jackson / Ernie Harwell reminiscing is of a different kind for me.  It wasn't just about the broadcast, it was also about all the things that surrounded the broadcast.  For me back in the mid-1970's, a Michigan football game on TV was a big thing.  I worked my schedule around the broadcast, and I glued myself to the set, hoping Channel 12 out of Flint came in okay that day in Howell, and soaking up the voice of Keith Jackson.  Ernie Harwell was all about being in bed, lights-out, with my AM radio on really low.  The crickets would be chirping outside, and Harwell's soft southern voice would lull me to sleep.

UM85

August 4th, 2019 at 3:44 PM ^

I was a huge fan of Ernie Harwell.  Sadly, whenever I think of him, I can't help but remember that Bo fired him.  I can recall thinking at the time, "Bo, WTF?"  Bo publicly apologized years later and Ernie was eventually rehired but that was the time when Bo's "my way or the highway" - which worked well in college - was shown to translate poorly to the pros. 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

August 4th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^

When I was really little, it never occurred to me to wonder how he knew, because he was Ernie Harwell and knew everything else that went on in the game, so of course he knew that too.

I once read a story (that is almost definitely bullshit) that he used to actually know (or have a reasonable guess) because blocks of tickets would be shipped off to retailers in different areas of town for people to buy when they went shopping.  Like section 210 would be sold at Macomb Mall or something.  Ernie would find out which sections were sold where.  True?  Nah.  But it makes a good story.

MGoBlue-querque

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:17 AM ^

"Bowling should have power plays."  Just about broke my brain trying to figure that one out, but if it includes an opponent taking a penalty for slashing, or boarding, etc, I'm in. 

gremlin3

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:22 AM ^

What establishing the run doesn't mean: running the ball a lot.

What it does mean: being good at running the ball. 

Defenses want to take away what you do well, so your success in the passing game is amplified by a good running game.

In other words, weapons everywhere.

canzior

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^

I can't remember what head coach was talking about this but he was talking about how important it is to run the ball because if it's 4th and 1...you don't want to be forced to pass or if you have a lead, and you need to sustain a drive and kill the clock with 2 first downs over 7-8 plays...you can't justify throwing 3 times in the 4th quarter with 4 minutes to play and up by 5. 

And for teams that actually leave the SEC footprint, sometimes they play in awful conditions or even worse in East Lansing.   Throwing 50 times a game in wind, rain, sleet, and snow....also a stupid idea.

username03

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:46 PM ^

I don't think anyone is arguing that you don't want to be able to run the ball to pick up 4th and 1. What I am arguing is that you can either do that or you can't. That the twelve straight runs that picked up two yards on first down has very little effect on whether you can pick up that 4th down. Especially if you've already dug yourself a whole because you are worried about establishing the run while the other team is worried about scoring, the actual point of offense. The wearing down the other team really only works if they're borderline inept on offense. See last season for proof.

umchicago

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:23 AM ^

my run vs pass analogy.  a boxer will almost never knock out an opponent with body blows.  but that sets up the shot to the head which can knock him out later.  in football running plays are a lot like body punching in boxing.  it's helleva lot easier to game plan against a one-dimensional offense, whether football or boxing.

my 2 cents.

dragonchild

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:08 PM ^

I was going to go with this analogy as well.  It's OK to occasionally punch the turtle, but in doing so you should either be baiting your opponent to over-commit, or keeping the opponent committed so other things remain effective.  And be mindful of what the opponent is doing.  If your run game is getting 2ypc against six in the box, you're in a bad situation, but the way out of that fix isn't to keep slamming your head against the wall.

Now, if the opponent is giving you something, you'd be a fool not to take it.  As I've said, and even Harbaugh has more or less said verbatim, you can run 50 times or pass 50 times.  Run/pass balance is the least important thing ever.  If the opposing defense plays the whole game with 9 in the box, you might run the ball less than ten times.  Who cares?!  Don't be an idiot and try to "establish the run" or whatever against an opponent that is going to literally give you everything else (presumably because he's betting that you're just the sort of idiot to take the bait).  Reminds me of the "27-for-27" game wherein Borges' predictability was so atrocious that at one point PSU rolled out four DTs -- and Borges ran right at it.

For that matter, speaking of stats, sometimes the team's MVP might finish a game with zero touches, and you win 52-0 because "MVP" meant getting triple-teamed the whole game.  You don't throw at him anyway because "gotta involve your playmakers" or such nonsense.  If you've got a guy taking away extra defenders, thank him every chance and then attack the hole.  Jake Butt, for one, still did plenty of damage even when he wasn't getting the ball, by virtue of DCs being terrified of him.

imafreak1

August 2nd, 2019 at 2:24 PM ^

I agree. And while I am not surprised at what Harbaugh said about run/pass ratio, because it is coach speak boiler plate, the fact is that in 2018 the Michigan offense ran +60% of the time mostly into stacked boxes. Those stats are not skewed by beating up on cupcakes. They might even be skewed the other way by having to pass when they were way behind (the most passing took place after Michigan fell way behind.) The run/pass ratio got more slanted towards run in the beginning against OSU and for the entire bowl game.

So, while I am not advocating abandoning the run. I'd like to see Harbaugh practice what he preaches a little more.

Bill Belichick is one of the very few coaches that actually follows the take what they are giving you motto by wildly swinging between run heavy and pass heavy from week to week and achieving "offensive balance" in that way.

dragonchild

August 2nd, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^

Yep, Harbaugh’s hypocrisy has been noted, mainly because abandoning this principle has led directly to poor results.

I dearly hope Gattis brings back SunTzuball. I couldn’t give less of a shit if #SpeedInSpace was #PissInBladder; make the gorram defense work and take what they give you, and you’ll move the ball.

DoubleB

August 2nd, 2019 at 5:22 PM ^

"For that matter, speaking of stats, sometimes the team's MVP might finish a game with zero touches, and you win 52-0 because "MVP" meant getting triple-teamed the whole game."

There's a difference between theory and actuality and this is a good example of it. On a chalkboard, yes, that makes perfect sense. In reality, the "MVP" (and the QB also) isn't going to be happy just taking one for the team with his zero catch performance. There are actual human beings involved in all of this and, in college at least, often immature ones (the nature of being 18-22 years old). I think that gets lost among fans quite a bit.

dragonchild

August 2nd, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^

If a player mails it in because he doesn’t get the ball, he’s no MVP by virtue of defenses keying on his intensity. Randy Moss was infamous for sabotaging anything not going his way. It wasn’t a problem with Jake.

Recruit the right guys and this really isn’t a problem. If anything, it’s consistently shown you can’t build around a prima donna.

BornInA2

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^

Keith Jackson, Bob Ufer...men at the top of their trade when their trade was at its apex. Their vocabulary was broad and astutely deployed, and they both understood the profound value of silence.

ijohnb

August 2nd, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^

I think people pining for two-bigs are going to get their wish next year.  I see Teske and Castleton both playing considerable minutes together and getting quite a few post touches.

JeepinBen

August 2nd, 2019 at 1:18 PM ^

This is similar to the run/pass discussion above, and something that I've asked Brian and Ace on twitter . According to analytics - Big vs. Big post ups are not the most efficient. What about Big vs. Little post ups? The idea of "punishing a switch" should be something that Michigan gets better at.