Wanting It More [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Three Up, Three Down: Hoops Edition Comment Count

Matt EM January 26th, 2022 at 10:34 AM

The basketball team appears to be turning the corner after strong performances in three consecutive games. A road win against a top-50 Kenpom team in Indiana has the Wolverines 33rd per the NET rankings and firmly on the bubble per ESPN's latest bracketology

 

THREE UP

Effort. Effort. Effort. The increased intensity from the entire roster starting with the Illinois game has been abundantly obvious to anyone with eyes. There aren't any fancy stats to point to, but take a look at this clip from seldom-used Jace Howard and tell me it doesn't set the tone:

That play by Howard has epitomized the sort of spirit this team has played with over the last three contests. Michigan is now the aggressor in terms of hitting the floor for loose balls, seeking out box-outs and dictating pace on both ends. Moussa Diabate generally brings more hustle than anyone on the floor, but when he's doing this up 12 with under five minutes remaining, it has to resonate with the rest of the team. 

Indeed, the want it more factor has trickled down the roster. Hunter Dickinson has supreme skill, but he's not necessarily known as a guy that's going all out. The All-American big man has now joined the party. In the clip below, Michigan is in a zone press and Dickinson covers more than 20 feet of ground to come up with a deflection + TO that leads to a transition bucket 99% of the time. When a plodding 7-footer is giving you that, the team is going to win a lot of games. 

The thing about wanting it more is that it can't generally be quantified. On most occasions there's no credit in the box score for hitting the floor first, the deflection where your teammate gets credit for the steal or the tie-up that allows the team to gain/retain possession. But undoubtedly, it does impact winning.

 

Hello, Caleb Houstan. Prior to Maryland, Houstan largely struggled on both ends of the court to put it mildly. The last two games? The former 5-star is living up to his billing as a premier shooter by going 8/11 from distance while averaging 17.5 points on 68.4% from the field overall.

The key to unlocking Houstan's perimeter shotmaking prowess seems to be time. Credit to our own Alex Drain here, as months ago he suggested Caleb may need more time to get his shot off considering it's essentially a set shot. This appears to be the case, as Houstan is getting WIDE open looks from distance over the last two games and connecting at a very high level. 

While the shooting is something this roster unquestionably needs from him, he's also starting to flash some progress defensively. Look at Houstan in the chaser spot here. He's trailing Kopp off the screen, Moussa correctly switches while Caleb tags Jackson-Davis as he dives to the rim. Deflection that leads to a TO.

If he's just an average defender while being a 35+ shooter from distance the rest of the season, Michigan's chances of making some noise down the stretch increase exponentially. 

[AFTER THE JUMP, it's a good thing when this column only has one down!]

Hunter Dickinson, stretch big. Michigan's leading man is starting to make good on the projections of him as a threat from three. He's 4/6 from distance over the last two games with several more midrange jumpers for good measure. 

A pick-and-pop threat gives opposing defenses an additional wrinkle to gameplan for. Perhaps the biggest benefit to this though, it may open things up for Moussa Diabate to be fully optimized by sucking out the opposition's best rim protector while Moussa has room to use his increasingly potent post + face-up game.

 

THREE DOWN

 

Eli Brooks, generally. The Wolverine senior is having a rough go of it in conference play, averaging 8.2ppg while shooting 28.6% from distance and 38% overall. Everyone goes though shooting slumps, but the shoot/pass decisions have been a bit baffling at times in recent games as well. Take a look at this possession. Eli fails to hug the first ballscreen, doesn't wait on the re-screen, gains no advantage because of it, then tries a jump pass that leads to a TO. 

Perhaps more concerning, the defense has fallen off a cliff in terms of impact. Synergy has Brooks in the 13th percentile, giving up 1.007 PPP as a primary defender as of today, while defending more possessions (146) than anyone on the team. While there is definitely some noise with any individual defensive metric, it's hard to ignore the eyes. Eli gets scored on a lot despite being in the right place at the right time. Opposing coaches have figured out that Brooks is a guy you just go at rather than trying to place him in ballscreens with heavy volume. 

The silver lining? When Eli is your fourth/fifth best player the odds of the team being good increase (right now). Conversely, having Brooks as your second option probably indicates the team isn't very good (December-early January). 

Comments

enlightenedbum

January 26th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^

Bonus fourth up to like, the entire women's team.  Previous couple wins were even without Naz dominating and then the most recent Purdue game was Naz being ridiculous basically.

Gulo Gulo Luscus

January 26th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^

I know the team is playing well but guessing this wasn't intended to be three up, one down. Or are Eli's struggles so bad they're worth three?

Admittedly, I'm struggling to think of other downs. I'd say Devante Jones, for all the improvement, needs to be a bit more selective with pushing the ball up the floor. On an odd-man break, go for it (although even then the passes haven't always been great, as seen in the Dickinson hustle clip where he biffs the alley-oop to Moussa). But sometimes he'll push it up and barrel at the hoop right off an inbound from a made basket. Got called for a bogus charge on it once v Indiana, but has been hit with legitimate charges, turned it over, or thrown up an ugly contested shot on others.

MGoMort

January 26th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^

This also falls in the difficult to quantify bin, but it seems like the team is playing with better on court emotion and leadership. Have remarked a number of times how emotionless DeVante has seemed this season, and the past few games he appears more engaged and enthusiastic - talking on D, letting out a scream after tough baskets or good plays. Same with Dickinson to some degree. Team seems like their chemistry and communication is better overall. Maybe guys finding their roles and settling in? 

Wolverine In Exile

January 26th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ^

Hunter developing to an in his prime Bill Laimbeer is a positive development. Big man with a distance jump shot and an inside game, coupled with enough movement to be an effective away from the basket defender. Yay.

L'Carpetron Do…

January 26th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^

That's what I'm talking about: effort! It's cliche but: you gotta want it.  If you're not up for a game you're going to have a hard time getting focused and you probably won't win it. And if you're not psyched up to play, you're definitely not going to beat a team that's better than you.

I think that's what Michigan is figuring out now: they're going to be overmatched by a lot of teams in the B1G. But, if they bring an intense effort, they drastically improve their chances. It took them a while to put it together this year and maybe they'll be one of those teams that plays better with their backs against the wall. The effort is the key. Excited to see what the rest of this season will bring. GO BLUE!! BEAT NW! BEAT STATE!!

TrueBlue2003

January 26th, 2022 at 12:57 PM ^

I don't think they're overmatched by many teams in the B1G talent-wise.  Maybe Purdue, maybe Illinois.  Maybe. And that's it.  Michigan has an All-American center and the number 1 freshmen class in the country plus a midish-major conference POY point guard, a veteran two guard, a couple nice 4 stars off the bench in Twill and Johns).  There's a reason they were preseason top 10.

But what they found out early in the season is that less talented teams can punch them in the mouth if they're brining the focus and effort.  So Michigan is just realizing that they can't win simply on talent and recruiting stars alone.  Takes focus and effort to pay off that talent.

TrueBlue2003

January 26th, 2022 at 1:07 PM ^

While he's definitely been unfairly harsh in the past and was slow to come around to Brooks being a plus defender in recent years, Matt's not wrong per se in any of this current analysis.  Brooks has objectively struggled and those Synergy metrics are not Matt's.

That said, I think Eli has taken on more difficult defensive assignments this year than he has in the past, and Michigan's ability to help this year has simply not been there (Dickinson is not a help side rim protector and the freshman wings don't have their rotations down) but it's getting better as the freshmen move up the steep learning curve.

In the past, Michigan has often been able to put Franz on the oppositions best perimeter or wing player with Brown also last year taking that responsibility.  This year, it's been solely on Eli and while he's a plus defender, he's not equipped to guard the oppositions best player, especially if he's much taller than Brooks.

And the offensive struggles should dissipate as the other guys step up and he can return to being just the 4th or 5th option and he doesn't have to force things.  That's really his limit, with occasional outbursts.

Wolverheel

January 26th, 2022 at 2:30 PM ^

More so funny that Brooks is the only one who gets mentioned as a negative when guys like Collins and Bufkin have been struggling immensely as their PT expands. Unless we're discounting freshmen, which wasn't the case with Houstan earlier so... I've just never seen someone have such a hate boner over a player as you do with Brooks. 

Brooks isn't doing super great offensively right now. I think if you hadn't trashed him so much over the years it wouldn't even give me a second thought. But you have. I mean you open yourself up to this stuff when you have continued to go after his play on twitter over the last couple of years regardless of, like, his actual play. Especially given the whole tantrum with him that got you banned from UMHoops.com in the first place was about his commitment. Like we're actually talking about a 6+ year vendetta here. If you don't want to be held accountable for past comments, don't make public hot takes on a guy.

Matt EM

January 26th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^

If you want to push your narrative and carry toxic debate, you are welcome to do that on another site exclusive of MGoBlog. If you don't like the basketball analysis here, simply don't read or refrain from comment.

That said, we're not going to have a toxic environment here when the analysis presented is objectively true. Final warning. 

blueheron

January 26th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^

Regarding Houstan's not-so-quick release, you'd think that the NBA scouts wouldn't be thrilled. It's not like he's going to have more time to shoot in the pros.

Still, I like where he seems to be headed this season.

mwolverine1

January 26th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^

Hey Matt - any thoughts on 2023 recruiting? Probably a whole post of them I would imagine, but I've been surprised that there hasn't been much of any momentum that I've seen.