Technical Flyover: Scouting Sparty Comment Count

Ian Boyd October 26th, 2021 at 1:34 PM

Michigan State looks pretty familiar this season.

Their head coach prowls the sideline with a scowl, presumably ready to stare xiphe into defenders who miss assignments and quarterbacks who make careless decisions with the football. The defense still plays mostly 4-3 quarters with a mobile Sam linebacker and big safety in the boundary, both of whom are regular participants in the run fit, and the offense is still very run-centric.

You'll also seem them perform normal Sparty tricks, such as hanging around in a game with cautious tactics designed to avoid losing the contest, before pouncing on a short field or a special teams miscue to pull out a close win.

I suppose I've described many a typical Big 10 team overall, but there's definitely a uniquely Michigan State quality about the way they look to grind out wins with cautious play, defense, and paroxysmal quarterback brilliance.

This makes them an interesting challenge for the now 7-0 Michigan Wolverines. The fact they enjoyed a bye week before the contest, a home game no less, makes the 7-0 Spartans perhaps the clearest test yet of the robustness of Michigans' own perfect season. There are also some schematic and personnel matchups in this game which should prove enlightening.

[WE BREAK DOWN THE MATCHUPS AFTER THE JUMP]

The Sparty offense

I have enduring memories of the better Dantonio Spartan teams as being defined by two things. First, the aggressive 4-3 Over press-quarters defense ran by Pat Narduzzi with its tight safety alignments and double A-gap zone blitzes. Secondly, an offense which generally seemed to consist of ineffective attempts at neanderball on first and second down before asking Connor Cook to bail them out from spread sets on 3rd down.

The main change Mel Tucker and his offensive coordinator Jay Johnson have brought to Lansing isn't a move away from run-centric offense or conservative execution, but the schematic approach to arriving at similar outcomes. This is now an 11 personnel spread team who hand the ball to their running back 21.7 times per game while asking the quarterback to attempt 26.1 passes per game. Because of the spread spacing, they get more big plays and are consequently a bit more efficient than the Dantonio teams although also more "boom or bust." Such are the tradeoffs in the spread.

The offensive infrastructure, which I define as the personnel and skill sets employed at quarterback, offensive line, and tight end, are of a pro-style, spread-I formation system. Starting tight end Connor Heyward is a converted running back who's only 6-foot-0, but weighs 230 pounds and quarterback Payton Thorne does his best work firing the ball down the field from the pocket on play-action.

The offensive line goes, from left to right:

  • 6-foot-6, 305 pound redshirt junior.
  • 6-foot-4, 305 pound junior.
  • 6-foot-3, 315 pound redshirt super senior.
  • 6-foot-5, 325 pound redshirt senior.
  • 6-foot-7, 320 pound redshirt super senior.

Overall they're a bit tall, not overly hefty, yet they have a lot of experience they maximize with a pretty solid arsenal of run blocking schemes and tend to get good movement in their split zone game. Hayward is a solid blocker, back-up Tyler Hunt is probably a little better and also surprisingly fluid for a former walk-on, but Hayward is downright dangerous and highly enjoyable to watch as a receiver. He runs like you'd expect from a converted back who's 230 pounds and they have a tight end screen game he can make hay in.

Payton Thorne is the best quarterback in the country no one is talking about. He can hit receivers in stride down the field, even to the wide side, and while they don't regularly ask him to make difficult decisions he's careful with the ball.

The overall offense has a clear identity and all the pieces fit quite nicely, particularly the skill weapons who make the system go. Slot receiver Tre Mosley is a bigger chain mover at 6-foot-2 who runs a lot of crossers and seam-reads on play-action. He doesn't have home run speed and Daxton Hill won't require much assistance keeping him locked up.

Outside receivers Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor are legitimate speedsters who can run by a bad corner on play-action, especially Reed who's their top weapon. Running back Kenneth Walker has good cutback ability and is a mortal lock to pass 1,000 yards on the season (he's at 997 now) in this contest.

The overall composite is a team who's highly competent running the ball from different angles and schemes with a good running back, and then mixing in lots of max protection play-action with a strong-armed quarterback who can hit the long throws and isn't careless with the football.

The Sparty defense

Mel Tucker is proving to have been a fantastic hire for Michigan State. He has deep roots in Ohio, where the best Spartan teams have tended to recruit heavily, and served as a defensive backs coach for Jim Tressel at the turn of the century down in Columbus when they won a ring.

For all of his background in defense, including coordinating the 2017 runner-up Georgia Bulldogs for Kirby Smart, upon his arrival in Lansing Tucker hired Scottie Hazelton from Kansas State to coordinate his defense. Hazelton was fresh from a very strong year with Kansas State under Chris Klieman and before that a few years at Wyoming under Craig Bohl. Hazelton is a very strong coach and the overall quality of the defensive brain trust in Lansing is as formidable as ever.

To their collective credit as a staff, the 2021 Spartans aren't as heavy into the single-high defense Tucker ran heavily at Georgia or Hazelton ran with Kansas State and Wyoming, but instead play a fair bit of quarters which is already well known to Michigan State and their players. They'll mix in both, but their preference is obviously dictated by their personnel at boundary safety, field safety, and the field side linebacker/safety hybrid. We'll call that position the Sam, here's how they man those spots.

  • Sam: Michael Dowell, 6-foot-1, 215 pound 3-star from Ohio with heavy snaps also coming to 6-foot-1, 220 pound Darius Snow, a 3-star from the DFW Metroplex. 
  • Field safety: Angelo Grose, 5-foot-10, 180 pound 3-star from Ohio who's a converted cornerback.
  • Boundary safety: Xavier Henderson, a 6-foot-1, 210 pound 4-star from Ohio.

Henderson leads the team in tackles and Grose is actually second and then you find the true inside linebackers. Whether they're in Cover 3 or quarters, Henderson tends to play as a deep linebacker and either poach from the wide side or drop down as a hook or flat defender for the Spartans. From those shallow depths he can also get involved as a blitzer and has made a few negative plays (seven tackles for loss, two sacks) but mostly you'll find him making tackles and cleaning up for the linebackers before offensive plays get too far out of control.

The pass defense overall is a definite concern for Michigan. There's still a Panasiuk on campus, Jacub plays left end and leads the team with 5.5 sacks. Fellow ends Jeff Pietrowski and Drew Beesley can get after it as well. Their top cornerback is Chester Kimbrough, a Florida transfer who will play some press-man coverage on the left side rather than the off coverage Cade McNamara has exploited for easy gains against some other opponents on the schedule.

It's a less aggressive defense than back in the Dantonio days, certainly than in the Narduzzi era. They'll still challenge some routes and sit on the run game with big, run-stopping safeties but the latter will hang out a little deeper and there's more overall caution about getting beat for big plays.

Clawing through the phalanx

There are two significant issues for Michigan against State which will rightfully get much of the attention. Issue one is whether or not Cade McNamara can make enough plays in the passing game to beat this team if Sparty's ability to bring big, tackling safeties around the box effectively limits the Wolverine run game.

The second issue is how Michigan's cornerbacks will look playing tight on receivers in the Match 3 and quarters schemes Mike Macdonald prefers when they're facing speed at outside receiver, an offense that takes shots from max protection, and a quarterback who can deliver the ball outside the hash marks on a rope.

The first problem is problem the most concerning to Michigan fans. "Is this the game where McNamara's limitations finally get us? Against Michigan State?????"

Here's the sort of spacing and alignment Michigan is likely to have to deal with against the Spartans when they want to run the ball.

Pretty similar to yesteryear, really. The ends are good, particularly Panasiuk, and they create an eight-man front with the Sam linebacker and strong safety (Henderson) which is hard to make serious headway against. They've performed well against spread-option attacks from the likes of Miami, Nebraska, and Rutgers.

The Wolverines are a different animal though. They won't involve the quarterback in the run game if they can help it, unless J.J. McCarthy is in which tends to spoil the plot, and they have a better O-line and running backs than any of those teams who all HAD to rely on their quarterback to have a chance at finding effectiveness on the ground.

Michigan won't really be able to constrain Sparty from bringing numbers around the box, they'll just have to block them anyways and hope an unblocked Henderson isn't able to make the tackle close enough to the line of scrimmage to stop the chains from moving. It's really not a terrible bet for Michigan.

On the bright side, Michigan State's linebackers and middle of the field zone coverages aren't absolute clamps and McNamara's ability to weave quick passes through traffic on 3rd-and-6 or less figures to translate in this game.

All those factors aren't likely to result in the accumulation of a high score but it seems very unlikely that Michigan State can shut this offense completely down.

The more concerning issue is the one regarding the Sparty passing game and their big play potential. Thus far in the year Michigan hasn't really faced outside receivers of this caliber, nor a quarterback who can put the ball on the money throwing over the top like Thorne can. The major concern in this game is less about whether or not McNamara can guide Michigan to some hard-earned points, but whether they end up needing a lot of them because the Sparty offense lands some shots.

Here's the spatial, matchup look against the State offense, which you can almost just boil down to "split zone or max protection play-action" run/pass conflicts. How do you keep players in position to handle a legitimately solid, two-back run game (the tight end is really like a fullback) without leaving yourself vulnerable to vertical shots from play-action?

Here's how:

This is "poach" or "steal" coverage and it's within the Michigan playbook, as are some "1-clue" single high coverages which accomplish something similar. Here's the gist of it, you help Hill on inside crossers from the slot not with the field safety, but with the boundary safety. The field safety stays in position to help over the top on behalf of the corner whom most teams would leave to handle the outside vertical (by "Z" here) all alone. Payton Thorne can hit the Z going vertical and they have fast guys there so you don't really want to give that away.

The boundary safety can also stay somewhat shallow, or at least play flat-footed at 10 yards or so, and still help Hill on the crosser. Consequently, he's not too far away to help clean up runs or tosses to the tight end.

The danger spot is for the boundary corner, who does not get help over the top (although the strong safety here is in position to help on a post). To mitigate the concerns here Michigan can have the boundary cornerback play in a press-bail or just a big cushion, off-man technique and focus on keeping throws in front of him. You might give up some freebies now and then underneath but you'd rather make a team like Michigan State ask their young quarterback to repeatedly hit timing routes underneath coverage then allow them the chance to traverse the whole field in one throw.

To help, they can also mix in Cover 3 looks in which both safeties are within closer proximity to help on the boundary receiver and the field corner is bailing deep and inviting throws underneath which have to deal with Daxton Hill in zone coverage.

Switching which safety rotates where and who doesn't and doesn't have help AFTER the snap with rotations is a good way to help corners who are playing 1-on-1 and preventing a young quarterback from getting an easy read and the chance to quickly uncork a good fade ball. If Thorne can sort it out quickly without Aidan Hutchinson and friends thwarting his timing, tip your cap, you've been beat.

The main key is setting the cornerbacks up with the opportunity to disguise their leverage and when they'll be conceding easy throws and when they won't. It's still on them to not let someone run by them, on a double move or with pure speed, and if they aren't up for the challenge than the last few games of this season could be tough on Michigan fans.

I expect Michigan will hold up well and manage a hard-fought win over the Spartans, keeping hope alive for the final stretch against the main powers in the Big 10 East.

Comments

GoBlue96

October 26th, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^

Good write up.  The key is our defensive line getting to Thorne to help our corners.   On offense we should be able to move the ball and score enough to win.  31-28 Michigan wins, state covers.

M Ascending

October 26th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^

Pressure on Thorne is absolutely the key,  even if it takes some blitzing to do it.  If we can keep them from hitting home runs we win this game.

I'm praying for miserable weather,  too. If it comes down to a slog fest, we should win. (Remember when the team with the most rushing yards ALWAYS won this game?)

thisisnotrandy

October 26th, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^

I'm a little leery of playing MSU during inland-tornado-lighting-downpour-monsoons on Halloween weekend.  Weird weather brings randomness into the game, may provide opportunity for some M-S-Bullshit, and I believe we have the talent to beat them straight-up.  Our empty backfield 5 wide formation is an important aspect of the offense, and I'd rather not have that cut out of the playbook.

s1105615

October 26th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^

Harbaugh plowed the field a bit by complaining about every B1G team they’ve played holding Hutchinson on basically every play.  Hopefully that translates into some well timed (and earned) flags against MSU to nullify any momentum or big plays against.  If the refs don’t swallow their flags just because it’s MSU doing the holding, the D Line should be able to create the pressure needed to force quick (and hopefully inaccurate) throws that either miss or lead to a turnover, or generate the sack (and potential fumble recovery).

That’s a lot of big ifs though.  Pulling for the win, but I’ve also seen this movie before.  Go Blue

WestBrew

October 26th, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^

Remember in 2016 when somebody put together a graphic showing Michigan was like statistically the most pressures with the least holding penalties or something?  And then in the next game we got a ton of calls. But we wasted it on Rutgers or something.

 

Somebody smarter than me should do some analysis on how often Hutchinson is held and get us some juice for this one.  Or maybe save it for OSU...

Cranky Dave

October 26th, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^

These technical flyover pieces are great, just like the old Neck Sharpies. 
 

MSU seems to have done a pretty good job in pass pro (makes sense  heavy use of max pro PAP). To state the obvious, if we can get any pass rush at all I feel like MSU could be held to <17pts. Good enough for a solid win

UMFanatic96

October 26th, 2021 at 2:14 PM ^

Awesome post, thank you for this. So this is what I've gathered:

 

Offensively, Michigan should be able to get their RB's to free hitters and it will be up to Corum and Haskins to either make that guy miss or run through them (I like those odds). Then there should be times for the short and intermediate throws from McNamara to exploit MSU's linebackers crashing on the run.

Defensively, Michigan needs to be able to contain Walker without needing safety help. That way Michigan can get MSU into 3rd and long and then have Hutchinson and Ojabo get after Thorne while having extra help in the secondary

UMFanatic96

October 26th, 2021 at 2:56 PM ^

I wouldn't be opposed to or shocked to see Dax shadowing Reed the entire game. Nailor is fast, but his biggest asset is going deep. So keep Dax on Reed and then have the safety help on Nailor. Then it's up to Mosley in the slot and covering him. But I would much rather force MSU to sustain drives and live with shorter throws than to just bomb it to Reed and Nailor

Hail to the Vi…

October 26th, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^

On passing downs, this sounds like a pretty good strategy. On first & second, I'm wondering though if this would soften up the run defense for Walker? I do not have enough defensive football acumen to know for certain, but it seems like Dax shadowing Reed basically takes him away from what he does on the edges and on run blitzes, which could be risky against a back like Walker.

In the end though, defense is a game of calculated risk. The way to win said game is successfully mask from the offense where the weak point is on any given snap... unless you can just Georgia the hell out of everybody, then yeah go ahead and do that (we all know Michigan can't do that).

ak47

October 26th, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^

I don't love the way MSU strength's line up against our weaknesses for this game. I think its extremely likely we give up at least one 50+ yard touchdown throw in this game and 2 of them feels more likely than zero. I think a lot of this game might just swing on when those shots happen. If its 14-0 Michigan when it does and you can respond with a solid drive its ok. If one of those shots is making it 14-0 MSU it gets real hairy real fast for this team.

UMFanatic96

October 26th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

I too have concern about defending MSU's potential explosive plays. But I wouldn't be so quick to say that MSU's strengths line up with Michigan's weaknesses.

MSU still relies heavily on Walker and their run game to move the ball. Against the 2 defenses with decent run defenses (Nebraska and Indiana), Walker and MSU could not run the ball for much of anything. Also noted in these games, MSU really couldn't move the ball through the air either.

For the other side of the ball, MSU gives up a ton of yards and their defense is usually on the field a lot more than their offense. This is mainly due to their poor 3rd down defense. At the same time, Michigan has done a great job controlling possession and grinding teams down and this bodes well for Michigan. This game could wind up with Michigan keeping MSU's defense on the field for most of the game and I like the odds of Haskins/Corum in the 2nd half when MSU's defense starts to tire.

ak47

October 26th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^

The problem is that relying on sustained drives is a really hard way to live, and its a really, really hard way to live if you happen to get down early in the game.

All it takes is for Cade to be a little off, or for those drives to stall inside the 20 and turn into field goals, which MSU has been good at doing all year and you wind up with a situation where Michigan has four good drives that results in 13 points and MSU has two big plays and has 14 points. Good offenses are able to hit big because even for the best college offenses going 60+ yards 4-6 yards at a time and finishing with a TD is extremely difficult to do consistently without some sort of penalty, sack, etc. putting you off track at some point. 

I am waffling a lot on how I feel about this game. Kenneth Walker is great but I don't really see the MSU offense having consistent sustained drives. On the other hand I would say Indiana and Nebraska both have better CB's than we do and I am pretty sure between their wide receivers just doing it and some screen/trick play bullshit they have spent two weeks on for this game they are going to get some big play easy scores. On the other side of the ball I just don't trust our offense to finish drives with touchdowns.

If we finish our drives with touchdowns I could for sure seeing us winning this game like 31-17 and it really being fine. On the other hand, if we are kicking field goals I could easily seeing us fall behind 21-10 early and losing like 35-13 when we can't get anything going trying to comeback.

We've just seen this team dominate a few first halves and fail to put the game away because of settling too much. They just dominated more against Washing and NW, but they almost blew it against Rutgers and Nebraska. If that happens with MSU I think MSU is good enough they will finish the job. Finishing drives with touchdowns is going to be extremely key, especially early. 

RJWolvie

October 26th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^

I’ll say it more emphatically: I HATE the matchups for this game. Unless our secondary plays 2 steps better than it has to date; or we get even more pressure or holding calls, they will get multiple big play scores. So we need offensive production on the order of the Wisconsin or Nebraska games, against a D that’s between those two in terms of how good. BUT without wisky’s atrocious offense or Nebraska’s Frostean fails to help us score 

RJWolvie

October 26th, 2021 at 2:40 PM ^

KWIII is 2nd in country in yards. Their 2 outside WR are both better than any we’ve faced. And Ian puts their QB at most underrated in country and anyway clearly by far best we’ve faced throwing the ball. I wish it was merely my dread that bottom will fall out soon, but these matchups are definitely bad for us any way I look at it

UMFanatic96

October 26th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^

KWIII is a good RB who's done almost all of his damage against shitty defenses. Against the defenses with a pulse he's been contained and not able to do much of anything. And newsflash, Michigan's run defense is better than both Nebraska's and Indiana's (advanced stats have Michigan's run defense only behind Georgia). 

Yes, MSU has the best receivers Michigan has faced and that will for sure be a challenge. I don't think Michigan will be capable of stopping those receivers, but they should be able to manage if they limit Walker and force MSU and Thorne into obvious passing downs. 

The majority of MSU's big plays are off of play-action or flea flickers after Walker and MSU's run game have been established. If Michigan contains the run game, then they will be fine. 

MSU did nothing in the 2nd half against Nebraska and they did nothing all game against Indiana. And do you think Michigan's defense is worse than either of those? 

Michigan still has to execute and play well, but if they do then Michigan wins

BoCanHam15

October 26th, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^

Lots of people have a hard time looking at this time and saying we’re good.  That’s ok.  But some posters that may go unnamed will almost always have a negative outlook on things.  Michigan will have their hands full, as they should.  MsU will also have their hands full, as I’m positive that they will.  Let’s do one thing also and state one fact.  This year our offensive line whether the starters are in or the backups, there has mostly always been cohesion.  That’s not going to just disappear.  Also our Defense is not just on paper but as far as physicality we are more dominant.  We have similar opponents to look at and we also understand,”coordinators will look into what we do well!”  Therefore, we win this game and MsU will still look good but they just won’t outlast our dominance.  Go Blue!

bronxblue

October 26th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^

I think Boyd is perhaps overstating how underrated Thorne is.  He's a good QB but half his TDs came in two games, one agaiinst YSU and the other against Miami.  Against Big 10 competition (including NW in their first game with a new DC in eons), he's completed 59% of his passes for 7.1 ypa and 6 TDs and 4 picks.  I think MSU's offense is scary in its bouts of explosiveness but I think the same "force the QB to beat you by shutting down their running game" feels equally applicable to MSU as UM.

UMFanatic96

October 26th, 2021 at 3:11 PM ^

Agreed. The difference is Michigan's passing game will rely more on the short and intermediate (thinking we could see more of the TE and RB passes like the past few week) while MSU's passing game is mostly play-action deep shots to Reed and Nailor.

The key is stopping the run for both teams. I think Michigan is more equipped to run the ball because they've been able to do it to everyone including Wisconsin who has the best run defense Michigan will face all season. MSU's o-line is shakier and they've struggled to run in games against good defenses.

bronxblue

October 26th, 2021 at 2:48 PM ^

I get the concern but here is MSU's offensive performance against defenses in the SP+ top 50:

  • #25 NW (in their first game with a new DC):  511 yards, 8.1 ypp, 38 points
  • #36 Miami: 454 yards, 6.3 ypp, 38 points
  • #24 Nebraska: 254 yards, 4.8 ypp, 16 points
  • #29 Rutgers: 600 yards, 9.5 ypp, 31 pts
  • #27 IU: 241 yards, 3.8 ypp, 13 points

Rutgers is the one outlier here but otherwise they've struggled recently against the better defenses they've faced and I don't think IU or Nebraska have better secondaries than UM.  

And conversely, MSU hasn't really faced an offense like UM's thus far in terms of efficiency, and Miami and Nebraska (who have more mobile QBs but far worse lines and RBs) were able to move the ball against them pretty well in the air and on the ground.  

It'll be a slog but there's also a real chance UM can hit some explosive plays against MSU.

ak47

October 26th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^

Indiana most certainly and nebraska probably have better secondaries than Michigan does. Gray and green turning out to be mediocre would be a fantastic turn around. 
 

Also against 5 top 50 defenses they’ve averaged 400 yards and 27 points. That’s pretty good. Think we probably need to expect 28 points at a minimum to win this game. A point total only western Kentucky has reached in a game they got blown out in.

bronxblue

October 26th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^

I think averaging here is a bit misleading; they averaged 38 points against NW and Miami and 20 points against more recent opponents.  

I also think people are still stuck on the idea that Gray and Green haven't improved at all since last year's MSU game, which is absolutely not the case.  The fact Gray hasn't been mentioned in a lot of these games speaks volumes for his improvements (yes he gets handsy at times, but no more than most corners), and Green is currently ranked 6th in the conference per PFF (which I'm not a huge fan of but does seem to track with reality) at corner.  And IU were down their 2 starting corners against MSU anyway, so that wasn't last year's defense for the Hoosiers.

Nebraska has a fine secondary but Cade McNamara also had one of his better games against that unit and, as I've been told around here numerous times, he's the worst QB to ever play at UM so that doesn't speak that highly for the Huskers.

BoCanHam15

October 26th, 2021 at 3:35 PM ^

How do you even live with your assumptions?  We beat the teams that you said have better defensive backfields than us.  They don’t have anyone as good as Daxton Hill on either one of those teams.  So I’ll leave that with you and just probably but maybe not this will help you understand that some probably’s just don’t mean anything.

RJWolvie

October 26th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^

I hope the more-optimistic takes here prove prescient. I’ll come at it from the other side too: if M defense holds down their deep-pass game to open the run game despite the mismatch of our secondary against their QB and WRs, then Mike Macdonald is coordinator of the year! minimizing mismatches against and maximizing those for. I hope he does it (and then does it again even better at the end of the year!)

Vote_Crisler_1937

October 26th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^

I love this weekly feature. I think I have to reread this one a few times. I come away feeling DOOM and DREAD but somehow the author concludes M will win?

I really hope Michigan wins. 

yossarians tree

October 26th, 2021 at 2:29 PM ^

This looks like game we're going to need a plus-performance from McNamara. State is going to sell out against the run. Wilson and and Sainristil will get behind those crashing safeties a few times and McNamara has to hit those shots. Also we have underutilized our tight ends all season against linebackers who bite on the run. 

Strap 'em on, fans. Even when Sparty is bad they play good in this game. And this year they look pretty good.

dragonchild

October 26th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^

We're not Nebraska or Indiana though.  We're Big Brother.  These games are usually so absurdly filthy, I want to take a shower afterwards.  We always have to play about 2-3 touchdowns' worth better than the actual score to beat these guys, and that's gonna be very difficult this time.

If we were just another program to them?  Sure, OK, I'd say Michigan's favored.  Not by a whole lot, but by enough to not feel nervous.  But we're not just another program, so we're gonna get four quarters of cheating thugball crap.  As well as MSU's been legitimately playing, I hate to say it but that gives them the edge in a conference with these gorram refs.

bronxblue

October 26th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^

Good stuff.  I agree MSU's front 8 isn't going to buy McNamara as a running threat and UM will have to adjust, but they've faced good defenses that know their plan already and have done perfectly fine.  And while I do think Thorne is a better QB than people expected, in his last 3 games against Nebraska, Rutgers and IU he's completed for 58% of his passes for 8.6 ypa with 5 TDs and 4 picks.  If UM's defense turns into Rutgers's and stops covering their WRs then he'll be solid, but play closer to Nebraska and IU (force him to walk down the field and complete passes) and he's more pedestrian.

The Deer Hunter

October 26th, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^

So according the analysis, MSU has a better QB, WR's and the #2 rusher in the country and we're going to mange to win at the end of the day by out scheming/playcalling them?

OK...sign me up!

Colt Burgess

October 26th, 2021 at 3:14 PM ^

I agree completely. It's the matchups that scare me about this game. Our defense, while good, has given up some big plays. Think Nebraska. A QB who can hit deep shots to speedy receivers could make for a long afternoon, especially if the officials don't call holding on the MSU O-line.