SEARCHBITS XIV: BRIEFLY RUMORED
HARBAUGH HARBAUGH HARBAUGH. All silent, aside from random NFL scouts lambasting the search and asserting that Harbaugh is not leaving the NFL ever-ever. It's a leap to go from "Michigan seems to be taking an exceptionally long time" to "there is no reason this could be, therefore Michigan is clownfraud."
The very fact that Michigan hasn't hired, or come close to hiring anyone, is evidence enough that they are waiting for definitive word on Harbaugh. And then you have everyone who talks to anyone inside the Michigan program saying that very loudly. Michigan may not get the guy, but it won't be because he turned Michigan down two weeks ago.
The only movement yesterday was a brief explosion of optimism last night based on a post from the very edge of the internet that got deleted once it was passed around, but not before the echo chamber went into full effect. No idea how seriously to take that. It does sound like certain people on the inside are beginning to believe it's really happening.
ON WHITTINGHAM. With the exception of Sam Webb, listening to talk radio guys is never advisable. 97.1's Jeff Riger just re-confirmed that yesterday by asserting that Kyle Whittingham was literally in Ann Arbor, a claim debunked a few hours later when Whittingham showed up at his previously-scheduled team meeting.
Like the Brandt thing, this was obviously untrue on its face: Michigan was never going to fire off an offer to Cutcliffe at this stage of their search, and sitting head coaches do not fly to towns with open jobs. These meetings take place in airports until it's time for a press conference, and again there is no way Michigan fills this job until they get a definitive answer from Harbaugh.
ALSO IN RE: WHITTINGHAM. I've heard there may have been some actual family issues involved with Gary Andersen's departure to Corvallis: namely, Andersen is Mormon and it's possible they were having a tough time adjusting to Madison. That's a reason Michigan and Mendenhall or Whittingham are unlikely to hook up.
I mean: these are two very successful coaches who haven't had so much as a sniff at bigger jobs. Utah blew out Alabama to go undefeated in 2008 and then went 10-3 the next two years and nobody so much as flirted with the guy. It is really hard to get coaches out of the state of Utah.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE HOT DOGS? Sean Payton strongly denied any rumors that he'd be somewhere other than New Orleans, correctly dubbing them "silly":
Asked at his press conference today about the possibility that he might step down following this season, Payton said, “Absolutely no way.”
Payton said he is aware that there’s been speculation that he wants to leave New Orleans, but Payton added, “It’s silly. It won’t happen.”
I don't care what insiders said X or Y about Payton's availability. The ghost of Bo could appear to me and tell me Payton was the guy and I would say "he has an eight million dollar contract until 2018, Bo—y'all be crazy." If the Saints decide to pull the ripcord on the best coach in their history thanks to one bad year and eat what I assume is a simply massive buyout, then we are getting to the realm of vague plausibility. Until that highly unlikely event transpires, "silly" is the kind way to put it.
These last two items are me getting exercised about people reporting things without considering how likely they are outside of "I herd it from mah dudez". I heard the weirdass Marvin Lewis thing and told you, but I also mentioned it was weirdass and I didn't expect anything to come of it.
NEVERMIND THE CHEESEOFF. Wisconsin takes under 24 hours to hire Paul Chryst, removing the admittedly remote possibility Michigan and Wisconsin would go after the same guy. Hilariously, a source says "I thought this would be the scenario from Day 1" on Day 1.
Alvarez is going through the "public posting" kabuki but it's done, according to everyone.
THIS IS NEWS FOR SOME REASON. Michigan sent out a release this morning stating that they've hired Korn Ferry as their search firm for 80-250k. Why Michigan would tell people this now (they've been working with the firm since Hoke got cashiered) and why people would repeat it out loud remains a mystery to me. Hackett said he'd be employing a search firm and everyone pretty much knew who that would be once he said said search firm would be familiar with Michigan.
It's a thing you can tweet, I guess.
Reactions have mostly fallen into one of two camps. One: "let me google that for you." Two: "lol these guys hired Brandon and Hoke." I agree with #1. Not so much #2. Brandon was a locked-in insider candidate after being a regent and helping hire Mary Sue Coleman (see Coleman's going-away present of a six-year guaranteed contract); Hoke was a locked-in insider candidate that Brandon was going to hire no matter who the search firm was after Harbaugh went with the 49ers.
All those guys do is give you a list of vetted names; Michigan's screwups are their own. That was supposed to be more reassuring than it ended up being.
WE MIGHT EVEN PASS ON JAY GRUDEN. ESPN Insider's rumor mill thing picks up the RealGM "nugget" on Jay Gruden's supposed interest in Michigan, then mentions that there's another guy out there:
Former UM quarterback and current San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh is another name that has come up often for the Wolverines job in recent weeks, and given Harbaugh's ties to the program and the likelihood that his days in SF are just about over, it's reasonable to believe that he could be the school's No. 1 coaching target, even ahead of Gruden.
This insight is available for just a few dollars a month.
FAN PECKING ORDER. 24/7 ran a series of polls asking their users about whether coaching candidates would be okay. The results:
- Harbaugh (95% yes)
- Stoops (89%)
- Miles (81%)
- Mora (77%)
- Mullen (69%)
- Herman (49%)
- Bielema (46%)
- Narduzzi (41%)
- Cutcliffe (41%)
- Whittingham (34%)
- Gundy (29%)
- Schiano (14%)
- Addazio (12%)
Gundy is a huge surprise down there. Addazio not so much.
Etc.: More on the role this advisory committee thing is playing. Sam says Les Miles's age isn't going to be a hindrance($) to his candidacy and that the search is apparently narrowed to four guys($), though which four is unclear. Miles and Harbaugh are amongst them; past that nobody knows.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
Snitches get stitches, man.
December 12th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
where did Jay Gruden rank on the 24/7 poll??
December 12th, 2014 at 12:35 PM ^
Overall, not well... but he's got strong support from the important "People who can't tell the difference between the Gruden brothers" demographic.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:36 PM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
In most cases, I'm guessing because they signed up a couple of years ago and forgot they are still paying. I'm sure there is an involved minority, but I know I've paid for services for years before cancelling simply because (a) they weren't expensive, and (b) you always figure you might use it, sometime. It's how Hulu got a year out of me before I cut the cord.
December 12th, 2014 at 2:56 PM ^
December 13th, 2014 at 9:26 AM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
...and now I don't think we'll need to ask Dan Mullen if he has interest in the UM job.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
Dafuq?
December 12th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
Mullen, I think you were staring at this a little too long and hard:
December 12th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
Was I sposed to not?
December 12th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
If he his hired this absolutely must be the new banner.
December 12th, 2014 at 2:37 PM ^
NTTATWWT
December 12th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
"it's reasonable to believe that (Harbaugh) could be the school's No. 1 coaching target, even ahead of Gruden."
This gif also applies if you pay for said service.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
The very fact that Michigan hasn't hired, or come close to hiring anyone, is evidence enough that they are waiting for definitive word on Harbaugh.
This is indeed evidence, but I'm not sure it's as strong evidence as "evidence enough" suggests. We should bear in mind that if Harbaugh is not willing to make the move (shut my whore mouth!), any other candidate involved in bowl preparations or playoffs would get a similar delay. There is very little cost - apart from the cost to this board's collective mental health - to waiting a bit at at this point.
The weird bit of counter-evidence to all of this is Hackett promising the players they'd have a coach before the New Year (he said they'd have one shortly after Christmas, IIRC). I'd have put my deadline closer to Jan. 3 or so.
After all, there's a chance that the 49ers playoff hopes are still alive after this weekend.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
Miles could probably make a move to Michigan right now, since it's not a major bowl that he's in.
Harbaugh's silence is evidence, Miles' silence is additional evidence that Harbaugh is Michigan's top choice with Miles (probably) at 1A.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
I believe Hackett said that they would have a new coach in place by the time the players returned from winter break, not by the New Year. This would be in line with your estimated deadline of January 3rd.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
If Harbaugh has said no, not sure why Hackett would wait. Coaches take new jobs all the time and leave before their team plays in the bowl game. Chyrst and McElwain are two examples this year. Heck, RR left WVU to come to UM during this time in 2007. Stewart was WVU's coach in the BCS bowl that year.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
Any other coach offered the job (that we're considering) would take it now. They want to get started on their new job as soon as possible. They want to get a staff in place, get recruting, get meeting their team, etc. Unless they have a legit shot at a national title (which none of our candidates have with maaaybe the exception of Herman, but that's as an OC, not a head coach) they will leave their team immediately, as they should.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:33 PM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^
I agree, I'm OK with that too. But it's possible that we can have our cake and eat it too.
This is why MIchigan has reached out to their non-Harbaugh options. If Herman is a legitimate option for Michigan, they likely had a conversation that went something like "You are one of our top non-Harbaugh options and it's entirely possibe he's not an option. We intend to consider you very seriously, so don't go out and jump at the first job offer you get that isn't as good as us."
If Herman gets offered the job at Houston and he has a shot at the Michigan job, he will likely tell Houston they need to wait on Michigan's decision. If they don't, he can get a job similar to Houston every year if he wants.
December 12th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^
Yeah, as soon as Harbaugh says no then the next coach will accept almost immediately afterwards and that will be it. The idea that a coach would stick around to coach the Music City Bowl or something seems unlikely.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh: "Can't you members of the national media see I'm going to Michigan? What's your deal?"
December 12th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
ahead of Jay Gruden?
Well, fu*k me, I never woulda thought that in a million years.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
but I'm still thinking Gruden's the man. My subscription service told me so. Also, I recommend everyone take a peak at the "random NFL scout's" twitter feed. Brandon could tell him to stop drinking and go to bed and he'd be absolutely right.
December 12th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^
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December 12th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
People actually pay for that crap? Even my mother who knows nothing of football and doesn't like Harbaugh because "he's mean and yells too much" wants Harbaugh at Michigan.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 12:05 PM ^
Last night I dreamt that Michigan hired Mike Hart, so it's safe to get that rumor mill turning as well.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
I'd be ok with him coaching the RBs. Any legitimate RB coach outside of Jackson (again) is ok with me.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:53 PM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 1:49 PM ^
Poor wording. I'm with you in that regard.
December 12th, 2014 at 1:51 PM ^
December 12th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
surprise to Brian down there. :)
December 12th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
Any reason why you would hire the same search firm that netted the university Dave Brandon and Brady Hoke? Clearly their track record indicated they want more work every 3-4 years...
December 12th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
Did you read the article you are commenting on?
December 12th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
Yes, and what I said is still accurate, just because Brian doesn't "buy" their role in it, they were still a part of hiring both Brandon and Hoke. Why would a new president and interim AD select the same firm, I think is a legitimate question?
No one is paying 80K to 250K for them to give them a list of Harbaugh, Miles, Mullen, Mora.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^
You know search firms don't hire people, right? They just find candidates, and then it's the company's job to interview and decide. So yeah, that search firm brought Hoke and Brandon in as candidates, along with every other reasonable candidate, but Michigan picked them.
Example: If you asked me to find you a girlfriend, and I found 20 single girls who were interested in you, whose fault is it when you pick the ugliest one?
December 12th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
If I'm paying you to find me 20 girls, you shouldn't bring in any ugly ones.
And if you did and things went horrible, I wouldn't go back to you to find me 20 more girls.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^
Well, that's not only silly, but that's not the way those firms work. They don't make the choice for you, they give you a number of options so you can pick what you like best.
The only way I could bring you girls without bringing you any ugly ones is if I just brought you fewer girls (and I didn't say ugly, I said ugliest - there will always be an ugliest even if there are two and both are very attractive). If I gave you 20 girls and you don't want the ugliest one(s) than don't date them. If I brought you both ugly and hot girls and you picked an ugly one, whose fault is that? Maybe the uglier ones were super nice or smart (or dumb, whatever you like) or rich or loved pleasing you while you play video games. I give you options, and you pick the option you like best.
A search firm doesn't replace the interview process. It just finds people for the interview process.
Maybe a better dating example: You want to date girls but you don't know where to find them so I bring you to a party where lots of available girls will be hanging out. Now you do the rest.
December 12th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^
I see what you are saying, but looking at it from another point of view.
They give 10 candidates, 1 has to be the worst and say we picked that one (Brandon/Hoke). Although there may have been worse choices we agree that those two were bad.
Or on the other hand maybe these were the best of even worse choices that we were given, which would not speak well of the people the firm "brought to the party"
It is kind of embarrasing to bring back the same people to help that know you failed BOTH times they previously helped you.
I just assumed there would be other people that could assist, or just go it alone, which Nebraska and Wisconsin have done in making very quick hires getting their #1 targets.
December 12th, 2014 at 1:04 PM ^
In regards to your 3rd paragraph - yes that's possible, but we have no reason to assume this. It's a successful firm that has worked with lots of other big organizatoins (with good results). To assume they totally botched what they do well is probably not the safest assumption.
As for your last paragraph - do you want the guys those schools hired? Because I sure don't. But you're exactly right that if we wanted to avoid the search firm and hire a mediocre coach, we could have done that by now.
December 12th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^
Do you honestly believe that Brandon and Hoke were candidates for their jobs because that search firm recommended them? Then you must also believe that Harbaugh is a candidate because they brought him up this time.
Nobody hires a search firm to suggest the names that are already at the top of their wish list. They hire them to recommend alternatives in case you can't get your first choice, to vet candidates, doing background checks the search committee isn't qualified for, and to contact candidates unofficially.
It should be obvious that our search can't be like Nebraska or Wisconsin's. Our first choice isn't yet available, so we have to explore other options and have the time to do so thoroughly.
December 12th, 2014 at 1:10 PM ^
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December 12th, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
What are your rates?
December 12th, 2014 at 12:46 PM ^
Well, you seem kinda like a jerk, and he was in charge of finding 20 girls willing to date you, so by the end the pickings were probably kinda slim.
And given the way the last guy got treated for not being a Michigan Man and the ADs focus on getting any Michigan Man the next time, there aren't going to be many plausible candidates jumping at the chance to coach Michigan until you get to the Hokes of the world.
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