For the first time in Jim Harbaugh's tenure, Michigan is in the B1G Championship Game and is suddenly one win from qualifying for the College Football Playoff. This site has published bracketology pieces before during basketball and hockey season, but this whole "football bracketology" thing is pretty new to MGoBlog.com. We have not been here before. But the stakes are very high and this weekend's games will determine if Michigan makes it into the final four, and who they would hypothetically be playing once they get there. Here's a rundown on the scenarios: 

How does Michigan make it in?

Win on Saturday. Beat Iowa. If Michigan does that, they're in. Ranked #2 in the CFP rankings this week, the only way that Michigan could drop more than one spot is with a loss. There's the possibility the Wolverines will be ranked #3 with a win if Bama defeats Georgia (more on that later), but there are no other teams that will jump Michigan if they take care of business in Indy. The B1G is a power conference that accounts for four of the top thirteen teams in the rankings, and a Michigan win would make them the champion of that conference. Michigan is top four in SP+, Massey, Sagarin, FPI, and any other ratings system you'd want to pull up, and Michigan has one of the most impressive wins of the season, the 15 point defeat of Ohio State last weekend. Not to mention that their loss is a road game, to a good team, by only four points, and under ~murky~ circumstances, something the CFP committee had used to justify Michigan's ranking over MSU in preceding weeks. The committee likes Michigan, and so it's a win-and-you're-in situation on Saturday night. 

A loss on the other hand scuttles all of this. It's not impossible Michigan could make it in at 11-2, but it would require a lot of carnage and help to have it happen. A perfect Michigan team (12-0) would have already punched their ticket and could get in with a loss, but that's not where we're at. Besides, this game is for a ring, a trophy, and breaking an 18-year-long conference title drought. Just win baby. 

SEC Implications 

SEC East champ Georgia sits #1, while SEC West champ Alabama sits #3 heading into this weekend's clash in Atlanta in the SEC Championship Game. It's safe at this juncture to say that Georgia has already qualified for the playoff with a 12-0 record. UGA's metrics are by far the best in college football right now, boasting a defense that is off-the-charts good in the advanced and traditional numbers. It's your author's opinion that Georgia ain't played nobody, with zero wins against teams in the top 19 of the CFP rankings (they do have wins over #20 Clemson, #22 Arkansas, and #23 Kentucky). SP+ is a bit more favorable to their strength of schedule, but not much, and they will be facing a different level of team in 'Bama, so we're about to learn a good bit about the Dawgs on Saturday. Even if they lose to Alabama, they're getting in at 12-1 with the one loss being to a fellow playoff team and the crazy good underlying metrics backing them up. Expect to see Kirby Smart's visor in the playoffs regardless of Saturday. 

That said, I'm a bit skeptical that Alabama can beat Georgia. Never, ever doubt Nick Saban, but this is definitely not a juggernaut Bama team like the ones we've seen in the past. This Crimson Tide iteration is third in SP+ but quite a bit behind Georgia, and not that far ahead of Michigan. Unlike past years, Alabama has had to play a number of one-score games in the SEC, including at home against 6-6 LSU, and on the road against 6-6 Florida and 6-6 Auburn, the latter going to 4OT after a late Alabama rally. The Tide also already have a loss against Texas A&M, leaving them at a vulnerable 11-1 that has a ton to prove heading into Saturday. A win over Georgia puts them into the CFP (and probably #1 overall), while a loss almost certainly eliminates them from contention and ships them off to the Sugar Bowl. So like Michigan, Bama has a win-and-in matchup coming up. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Bearcats, and Cowboys, and Irish oh my!]

The Bearcats are on the cusp of the playoff [Kareem Elgazzar/Cincinnati Enquirer]

Group of Five, at last? 

The Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0) are ranked #4 this week and on the verge of being the first Group of Five team to ever make the CFP. They got here by building off of years of success, posting 11 wins in 2018 and 2019 before going 9-1 last season, making a NY6 game, and then hanging tough with Georgia in a three point loss. This season they've gone 12-0, cleaning up in the American Athletic Conference and then winning their two "marquee" non-con games, beating Notre Dame, a win that looks good, and also Indiana, which now looks like a "marquee" win in the same way Burger King is a "marquee" fast food restaurant. It helps that they won both games by double digits on the road, and so their advanced numbers are quite good. 5th in SP+, 6th in Massey, 7th in Sagarin, and 8th in FPI. Not a power conference team, but better metrics than 95% of the power conference teams out there this year.  

They've mostly cruised through the AAC, with just two games ending in a one score margin, one against Tulsa and one against Navy, although they were outgained in both. Now the Bearcats have a chance to add a top 25 win to the list in 11-1, #21 Houston in the American Championship Game. Cincy and Houston didn't see each other in the regular season, so this will be an intriguing matchup. The advanced numbers like Cincy, and Houston's one loss was to the only power conference team they played (Texas Tech, and decisively), but the Cougars did do better against Tulsa and Navy on average than Cincinnati did. So we'll see. 

If Cincinnati, Georgia, and Michigan win, the Bearcats are in. Among the teams in serious contention, Cincinnati's saving grace is that win over Notre Dame, which, in addition to playing one extra game, should get the Bearcats in over the Irish 99 times out of 100. However, things get interesting if Cincy, Alabama, and Michigan win. In this scenario, the two SEC teams + Michigan take up the top three spots and then one spot is left. If only Cincy and ND are vying for it, the Bearcats win that tie. But if Cincy, Oklahoma State, and ND are vying for it, then suddenly there's a very real chance you could see Cincinnati get snubbed. SP+ definitely likes Cincinnati over Oklahoma State, but other metrics are more muddled and it would take a lot of guts for the committee to take a 13-0 non-power conference team over a 12-1 power conference team that won its title game. If that scenario were to arise, it would probably answer the question of whether we'll ever see a Group of Five team make it in or not. If Cincy wins the battle, then the answer is obviously yes. But if the Cowboys are taken, the answer is probably no. 

Who saw OKSt in the playoff conversation before the season? [Brad Tollefson/Associated Press]

Big XII, PAC-12, and other teams? 

The Big 12 title game takes place early Saturday afternoon, pitting #5 Oklahoma State, who upset the Sooners in Bedlam, against #9 Baylor. This is the closest OKSt has come to playing for a national title since Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon lost a late season game in Ames way back in 2011, and the Pokes have snuck up on the CFB world in some ways, coming out of nowhere to now be on the precipice of the playoff. Sitting at 11-1, OKSt is a team who wants Georgia to beat Alabama, which would clear the path for them to step up into the playoff. In theory, #6 Notre Dame could be a factor, but since the committee already ranked Oklahoma State ahead of Notre Dame, and in this scenario OKSt would be adding a good win while the Irish are sitting at home, it's the Cowboys who would jump up into that slot. Alternatively, like Cincinnati, OKSt should also cheer for Michigan to lose to grab one of those spots. 

But what if Baylor wins? The Bears are 10-2, and so a win would get them in the conversation, but it would come down to the committee's preference on 11-1 Notre Dame vs. 11-2 Baylor. Not sure who would win that argument, but I'd lean towards ND. Baylor probably only gets in if the #chaos scenario happens, where Michigan, Georgia, and Cincinnati all lose. The same could be said for #10 Oregon, who sit at 10-2 and are playing in the PAC-12 title game tomorrow night. They've still got that win in Columbus, but their performance in the conference has not helped their case. A Ducks win over #17 Utah will help them, but they also need massive carnage to even begin to enter the conversation given the weakness of the PAC-12 over the past half-decade (including this season). A 12-0 Oregon team would be getting ready to punch their ticket. An 11-1 team would be in the hunt. But it's hard to go 10-2 in that conference, even with the non-conference win over OSU, and expect to make the CFP. 

Ole Miss is 10-2 at #8 and Ohio State is 10-2 at #7, but neither seem like much of a threat at this time. A hypothetical two-loss Michigan wins the head-to-head over either, so it would require almost everyone losing, and you'd still probably not have enough slots open to fit either team in, considering Notre Dame physically can't lose this weekend and the SEC is getting one or two spots no matter what. Does 10-2 OSU get in over 12-1 Cincy? Or 11-2 Baylor? Ehhhhhhh. 

Gaming the scenarios out 

So I've now outlined the different games that are going, on but let me attempt to distill that all into more readable English, by listing the different scenarios for Michigan winning, with my guesses of what happens in each: 

Georgia, Michigan, Cincy, OKSt all win: #1 Georgia vs. #4 OKSt, #2 Michigan vs. #3 Cincinnati

Alabama, Michigan, Cincy, OKSt all win: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Cincinnati, #2 Georgia vs. #3 Michigan 

Georgia, Michigan, Cincy, Baylor all win: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Notre Dame, #2 Michigan vs. #3 Cincinnati 

Alabama, Michigan, Cincy, Baylor all win: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Cincinnati, #2 Georgia vs. #3 Michigan

Georgia, Michigan, Houston, OKSt all win: #1 Georgia vs. #4 Notre Dame, #2 Michigan vs. #3 Oklahoma State 

Alabama, Michigan, Houston, OKSt all win: #1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma State, #2 Georgia vs. #3 Michigan

These are the chalky scenarios. Chaos ensues if you get Houston and Baylor winning, which has the potential to produce all kinds of wacky stuff, and paving the way for a Baylor or even an Oregon to get in. Of course if Michigan loses, in addition to these sorts of upsets, all hell breaks loose on a wild scale. But we needn't go down that path since this blog's interest in the playoff drops to 0% if Michigan loses and thus is eliminated from the playoff. 

What does Michigan want? 

We want any scenario where Georgia beats Alabama. Right now there are three teams that are better than Michigan in the SP+ numbers. A Georgia win guarantees only one of those will make the playoff, while an Alabama wins means Michigan is very likely to face one of them in the semifinals. That's not optimal. So, go Dawgs. 

So who does Michigan want to see out of that next group of teams? I'm not really sure. According to SP+, that would be Oklahoma State, but I don't think there's a huge difference between Notre Dame, Cincinnati, and OKSt. Any one of those three are teams that would set up a game that Michigan is favored in, and thus is preferable to facing Alabama or Georgia immediately. For the sake of taunting an old rival, cheer for both Cincy and Oklahoma State to win so that Notre Dame gets left out because they're still too cowardly to join a conference. That's my advice. All chalk. We want Georgia, Cincy, and OKSt to all win.