About Last Week

The Road Ahead

Michigan State (3-4, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye

This team is as frightening as: It’s your first night at Fight Club. And because it is your first night at Fight Club, you HAVE to fight. When you arrive, you’re told that you are fighting Manfred. And they say it with a tone of fear and reverence. There are whispered tales from those around you of the things Manfred has done in the past, so you spend the entire evening both psyching yourself up and psyching yourself out. And then the time for your fight comes, and Manfred emerges from the crowd. He’s a 7th grader who weighs approximately 97 pounds. He takes his retainer out and hands it to his mom, who is waiting to drive him home after the fight. He extends both middle fingers towards you and flexes. No muscles are visible. The crowd roars.

You know you’re supposed to be scared. But in the moment, it’s a little hard to see why. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: It’s narrow, but if you squint, there’s a path. Michigan State will have a scripted drive, so that’s 7 points. They’ll get a drive on a Jayden Reed bomb, a pass interference call, and a conversion on a 4th and 7, so that’s 14 points. Maybe they get a turnover and a short field, or a Jayden Reed punt return. That’s 21 points. Michigan gains a lot of yards, but they stall, turn the ball over on downs once or twice, and end up with one touchdown and four field goals. That’s 21-19. It’s possible. Unlikely, but possible.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan is better in every aspect of the game, and at basically every position. Michigan has been good. Michigan State has been bad. It’s at Michigan Stadium at night.

At some point, mythology be damned, a 97-pound 7th grader is just a 97-pound 7th grader.

When they play Michigan: Okay Sparty, it took us a bunch of years, but, having finally gotten the Ohio State monkey off its back, for the moment it appears that you have Michigan’s full attention. Is that REALLY what you wanted this year?

This week: @ Michigan, 7:30 p.m., ABC (MSU +23)

[AFTER THE JUMP: Look, if I tell you what’s after the jump, you’re just going to close the browser. CLICK, YOU COWARD.]

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Rutgers (3-4, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Beat Indiana, 24-17

Recap: Rutgers finished 0-9 in Big Ten play 3 times in the last 6 seasons. They will not finish 0-9 this year. So, that’s cool.

The key to this matchup was always going to be whether one team could force the game into its preferred style of play. In the end, Rutgers’ “toddler making mudpies” style won out over Indiana’s “toddler trying to pop all of the bubbles coming out of the bubble machine” style, and the result followed suit. Indiana only ran 60 offensive plays, well under their season average of 79 plays per game. Noah Vedral only passed for 4.7 yards per attempt, but at least he played the whole game and seems to be back to 100% (on the scale from 0 to “is Noah Vedral”).

Rutgers mostly relied on Samuel Brown V, a bowling ball of a freshman running back who reminds me of the old Leroy Hoard quote; he allegedly once told John Madden, “Coach, if you need two yards, I’ll get you three. If you need five yards, I’ll get you three.” Of Brown's 28 carries, 23 went for between 1 and 5 yards. None of them were stuffed, and none went for more than 12 yards.

This team is as frightening as: Rutgers. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: The defense? I guess? They’re fifth in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed?

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers has been outgained on a per-play basis against literally every FBS opponent. That includes Temple, Iowa, and Indiana. As a team, they also have the lowest passer rating of any Big Ten team in conference play. They are less comical than in years past, but they are still very very bad.

When they play Michigan: A night game. For some reason. Your call, but maybe don’t invite 200 recruits to this one, fellas.

Run it back?

This week: @ Minnesota, 2:30 p.m., BTN (Rutgers +14)
 

Nebraska (3-4, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No recap. Bye.

This team is as frightening as: The McRib. Not bad, but also not particularly “good” in the traditional sense. Has a huge devoted following for unclear reasons. Soft in the middle. Disconcertingly pliable. Generally makes a gigantic mess of things.  Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Casey Thompson is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt in Big Ten play. That’s second only to CJ Stroud, and ahead of JJ McCarthy, Taulia Tagovialoa, Sean Clifford, and Tanner Morgan.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Three of the four conference teams Nebraska has played ⁠— Indiana, Northwestern, and Purdue ⁠— have been among the worst pass defenses in the conference (and the country, to be frank). Against Rutgers, the only statistically decent pass defense they have played, Thompson threw for 6.4 YPA and two picks, and Nebraska only scored 14 points. And in hindsight, only passing for 6.5 YPA (and 5.3 YPA as a team) against Oklahoma reeeeeeally didn’t age well.

When they play Michigan: It will be interesting to see how Michigan plays this one from an offensive standpoint. It’s their last chance to work out the kinks before closing out the year against two very good defenses, but at the same time, a game plan of “MASH MASH MASHITY MASH” would almost certainly be wildly successful.

This week: vs. Illinois, 3:30 p.m., ABC (Nebraska +7.5)
 

Illinois (6-1, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Bye

Recap: This was a huge weekend for Illinois despite not playing football. Purdue, the Illini’s most likely competition for a division title entering the weekend, lost to Wisconsin, against whom Illinois already holds a tiebreaker. Meanwhile, Minnesota, whose closing schedule of Dopey, Grumpy, Sleepy, Ferentzy, and Bucky gave them a decent shot to run the table and finish 7-2, lost to Penn State, dropping them to 1-3 and likely out of contention.

As a result, Illinois’ path to a division title is clear: beat Nebraska, Michigan State, and Purdue, and they enter the Michigan game with a crown fitting already scheduled. And even if they blow one of those games, they have a gimmie to close things out against Northwestern.

The Big Ten West crown

This team is as frightening as: “The best the Big Ten West has to offer.” Which... /shrug/ Fear Level = 7.5

Michigan should worry about: The stats, the fancystats, and the eye test all agree: Illinois’ defense is outstanding.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ask me again after they play Nebraska. Illinois still hasn’t played anyone who can throw the ball.

When they play Michigan: This is a week that will feature a likely Top-10 matchup between Oregon/Utah, a likely Top-10 USC/UCLA, a ranked Georgia/Kentucky matchup, a playoff-relevant TCU/Baylor matchup, and Bedlam… and I could make an argument that Gameday should be at an Illinois game.

Howdy, End Times!

This week: @ Nebraska, 3:30, ABC (Illinois -7.5)
 

Ohio State (7-0, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Iowa, 54-10

Recap: I only remember a handful of specific things from high school biology. But one thing I remember vividly is the frog dissection. I recall two distinct emotions:

1. this is very interesting
2. this is extremely unpleasant for all of my senses

Iowa/Ohio State was very much a frog dissection, but with a dull knife and an under-refrigerated frog carcass. There were a *number* of interesting events, which isn’t something you can usually say about Iowa games. Lots of stuff happened. There were a bunch of new data points. But the whole thing smelled like death, and my appetite still hasn’t fully returned.

This was never going to be a competitive game. But we were going to get a piece of information we hadn’t tested for a while: what would Ohio State’s offense look like against a Top 10 defense, especially in the red zone? And, to their credit, Iowa decided to build the entire plane out of that question. They turned the ball over six times (including a pick-6), which doesn’t include the time that Iowa’s punter decided to try to run for a first down and got thumped. Spencer Petras threw a pick on the first play of the game. Alex Padilla fumbled on his first snap in relief of Petras, and then threw a pick on HIS first pass of the day. As a result, Ohio State started drives at the Iowa 29, 27, 34, 32, 15, and 40 yard line. This game probably should have been 56-7 at halftime.

But somehow, Iowa’s defense… won the first half? Despite that amazing field position advantage, Ohio State only scored one touchdown on their first ten offensive drives. None of the other nine drives yielded more than 24 yards. The Hawkeyes also scored a defensive touchdown in that span. So, out of those first ten drives, despite facing the best offense in the country and being constantly Rochambeaued by their own offense, the Hawkeye defense was only outscored by a net 12 points.

Yes, Ohio State pulled away and looked like themselves once the flood gates opened. But that required us to watch SO MUCH BAD FOOTBALL to get to that point.

This team is as frightening as: T-Rex. Yes, he’s a perfect killing machine who thrived for millions of years… but, man, I don’t know about those stubby arms. Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: lol gee let me think

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Iowa and Notre Dame have shown that it is possible ⁠— POSSIBLE ⁠— to slow down Ohio State’s offense.

When they play Michigan: Don’t give Ohio State six short fields and a defensive touchdown. #ProTip

This week: @ Penn State, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (OSU -15.5)
 

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Colorado State (2-5, 2-1 MWC)

Last week: Beat Hawai’i, 17-13

Meanwhile, at Mountain West Conference Headquarters…

Recap: The headliner of the week. A titanic clash between two teams who regularly play organized football. And it lived up to its billing as a “football game” and a “thing that the Mountain West insisted had to happen.”

Colorado State cracked 300 total yards for the first time this season, with their 386 yards coming at 6.0 yards per play. They held Hawai’i to a 257 yards, as the Rainbow Warriors gained 2 total first downs in the second half. Hawai’i jumped out to a 13-3 halftime lead, but as always happens when these two get together, more game occurred in the second half. CSU running back Avery Morrow scored two touchdowns on his way to a 147-yard day, his third straight 100-yard outing.

Let’s talk about something else now.

This week: @ Boise State, 7:00 p.m., FS1 for some reason (CSU +27)
 

 

Hawaii (2-6, 1-2 MWC)

Last week: Lost at Colorado State, 17-13

Recap: Aw goddammit.

OKAY COOL LET’S LOOK AT THIS GAME AGAIN.

On the bright side, Hawai’i’s defensive turnaround continues; after allowing an average of 53 points to their first 4 FBS opponents, they’ve held San Diego State, Nevada, and Colorado State to 49 points combined. However, the offense couldn’t build on the little bit of momentum they had generated in the last few weeks.

We can be done now.

This week: vs. Wyoming, midnight (Hawai’i +10.5)
 

UConn (3-5)

Last week: Bye

Recap: No Recap. Bye.

Look how rested and rejuvenated he looks.

This week: vs. Boston College, noon, CBSSN (UConn +7.5)
 

Maryland (6-2, 3-2 B1G)

Last week: Beat Northwestern, 31-24

Recap: October Maryland finally caught a break. Playing their backup quarterback on Saturday, they put together a performance that would probably have beaten exactly one Big Ten team. And it just so happened that the Terps were playing that team on Saturday.

Billy Edwards Jr. only threw for 166 yards ⁠— Maryland’s lowest passing output since the first game of the COVID year ⁠— at a season-low 5.9 yards per attempt. Edwards did gain 93 yards on 12 non-sack carries, and that combined with 179 rushing yards and 3 TDs from Roman Hemby, was enough to squeak out a win. This was the first Big Ten game in which Maryland had more rushing yards than passing yards since 2019.

The other bit of good news is that Mike Locksley indicated this week that he expects Taulia Tagovialoa to return after the bye week. With games remaining against Wisconsin and Rutgers, Maryland’s first 8-win season since 2010 ⁠— a span of five head coaches ⁠— is within reach. They will also get two cracks at marquee wins against Penn State and Ohio State.

This week: Bye
 

Iowa (3-4, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State, 54-10

Recap: I don’t want to rehash this game again. I have lunch next period, and I’m still trying to get the formaldehyde smell off my hands. But, good lord, what a continuing embarrassment. The fans deserve better, the defense deserves better, and the corn deserves better.

Out of 131 FBS teams, Iowa is #131 in in total yards per game, #130 in yards per play, #129 in yards per carry, and #124 in yards per pass attempt. They’re averaging 7.7 plays per game that go 10 yards. Colorado State has a more efficient offense. Rutgers is more explosive. Indiana is better rushing team. Northwestern is a *significantly* better passing team.

I know it’s too simplistic to say, “this is the Ferentz’s fault,” but my search for a better explanation has come up empty.

• It’s not raw talent; for the 2018-2022 recruiting classes (i.e. the current team), Iowa averaged 37th nationally and between 7th and 8th in the Big Ten. That’s not great, but it’s certainly not this dire. And I thought “maybe all of the talent was concentrated on the defense,” but if you just look at the top 5 or top 10 players in those classes, more than half were offensive players.
• It’s not resources; Iowa spends the fifth most of any Big Ten school, and the built a $55 Million football facility seven years ago.
• It’s not University commitment; Gary Barta has given Kirk ⁠— and by extension, Brian ⁠— Ferentz the equivalent of a lifetime contract, a company car, and full refrigerator privileges at the Barta residence.
• It’s not fan support. Those poor bastards keep showing up.

With Scott Frost no longer around to defend it, Kirk and Brian Ferentz have wrested the BoJack from Nebraska.

This week: vs. Northwestern, 3:30 p.m., ESPN2 (Iowa -11, O/U 1.5 bleeding eyes)
 

Indiana (3-5, 1-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Rutgers, 24-17

Indiana :(

Recap: How bad is Indiana, you ask? Well, Rutgers hadn’t won a home conference game since 2017, a streak of 21 straight losses. The last time they’d beaten a Big Ten team in Piscataway, they beat Max Bortenschlager. And Rutgers spotted Indiana a 7-0 lead on the opening kickoff. Yet somehow, the Hoosiers were unable to withstand the 113 yard passing onslaught of Noah Vedral.

Indiana is still last in the yards per carry in Big Ten play. Connor Bazelak remains behind Spencer Petras in yards per pass attempt. Everything is bad.

This week: Bye
 

Penn State (6-1, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 45-17

Celebration sandwiches for all

Recap: A solid bounce-back outing from Penn State, albeit against a backup quarterback. They held Minnesota to 165 yards rushing at 3.6 yards per carry, which is a significant improvement over last week, when they allowed 418 yards rushing at 7.6 yards per carry to Michigan. Mo Ibrahim needed 30 carries to crack 100 yards, more carries than either Blake Corum or Donovan Edwards needed to exceed 166 yards rushing apiece. Overall Penn State held Minnesota to 340 total yards at 5.0 yards per play, MUCH better than the 563 yards at 7.1 yards per play (including 418 rushing yards at 7.6 yards per carry) they allowed to Michigan. They also forced 7 Minnesota punts, 7 more than they forced against Michigan.

Offensively, Penn State put up 211 more yards than the 268 they posted against Michigan. They also gained 24 first downs, 14 more than last week when they tallied only 10 first downs against Michigan. Penn State’s running backs combined for 169 yards rushing at 5.3 yards per carry, much better production than they had the prior week, when they combined for 41 yards rushing on the way to being outrushed by Michigan’s running backs 361 to 41. Penn State also threw for 9.2 yards per attempt and 4 touchdowns, quite the statement after putting up 5.4 yards per attempt and 0 passing touchdowns against Michigan.

So, all in all, a nice game. Much better than the last one. When they gave up FOUR HUNDRED AND EIGHTEEN RUSHING YARDS.

To Michigan.

Last week.

This week: vs. Ohio State, Big Noon Saturday, FOX (PSU +15.5)

 

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418 yards.