About Last Week

The Road Ahead

Rutgers (1-3)

Last week: Lost to Illinois, 23-20

Recap: Most years, we would be pointing and laughing at this game. And, sure, we did to an extent. But three things kept us from devoting the appropriate level of pity-awe to this one:

1. It mostly overlapped with the true Sickos game of the week, Penn State and Nebraska
2. Michigan fans were more concerned about finding reasons to feel optimistic about this week than about laughing at the weaklings.
3. Rutgers had shown real, actual signs of being only mostly dead.

Turns out, Miracle Max was wrong about #3. Rutgers still dead.

They played okay for most of the first 40 minutes – and for Rutgers, it was downright competent – building a 10-point lead midway through the third quarter. But their last four possessions went interception, punt, interception, interception. The last pick was particularly bad; Rutgers was all the way to the Illinois 38 with a first down and a chance to win the game, but Noah Vedral forced a ball into double coverage.

Losing to an Illinois team that was coming off a 27 point loss to Minnesota is a reminder that when you are the worst at something, there is plenty of room to move around. You can be “worst by a little” or “worst by a lot” or “worst by a Rutger,” and no one will really get in your way. When you’re last in line, no one is jockeying you for position. Moving up from dead last to second-to-dead-last, though, is a different animal. Perhaps Rutgers will take that step soon. But not yet.

This team is as frightening as: Seneca once wrote that “We are more often frightened than hurt; and we suffer more from imagination than from reality.” Of course, Seneca died an agonizing death after sloooooooowly bleeding himself to death on Nero’s orders, so, maybe fear isn’t always the only issue. Fear Level = 10

How prolonged does a death have to be before the official scribe gets bored and starts doodling?

Michigan should worry about: Bo Melton and Isaih Pacheco. Melton has nearly 3 times the receiving yards of anyone else on the roster, and Pacheco has more than 3.5 times the rushing yards of anyone else on the roster.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is, once again, last in the conference in yards per pass attempt at 5.3 yards per pass attempt. This would be the fourth time in five years they have been last in the conference, and the fifth year in a row they would have averaged 5.3 YPA or fewer.

When they play Michigan: Ain't no floor beneath this one.

Next game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., BTN (RU +9 for some reason)

[Hit THE JUMP for oh no Kirk Ferentz is dunking all over Michigan's only win.]

Penn State (Oh and fooooooour)

Last week: Lost at previously winless Nebraska, 30-23, to remain winless

Recap: This has been a bitterly disappointing season for Michigan fans. Everything seems awful. The team is a mess, the future looks bleak, and morale is in the shitter and the shitter was poorly installed so the flange isn’t sealing properly so it is leaking into the floorboards every time you flush and one day soon the whole sumbitch is going to crash down into the crawlspace in a mess of feces and rotted subfloor and mangled pipes.

But at least Michigan has a win.

For the second time this season, Penn State outgained an opponent by more than 200 total yards and still lost. Unlike the Indiana game, though, the counting stats in this game are skewed based on the number of plays. Penn State only slightly outgained Nebraska on a per-play basis (5.5 to 5.0), and Nebraska spent most of the second half sitting on their 27-6 halftime lead.

It is unclear whether Will Levis is the answer at QB, but he certainly seems to be better than Sean Clifford. He was 14-31 for 219 yards (7.1 per attempt) with another 61 yards on the ground, and unlike Clifford his first reaction when a pass rush approaches isn't to reenact the Duck and Cover drills from the 1950's. 

This team is as frightening as: A team that is competent at like 36% of the things they do. Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State is #120 out of 126 teams nationally in red zone touchdown conversions (8 TDs in 19 trips), and #123 in red zone scoring overall. 37% of the time they’ve reach the red zone, they’ve score zero points.

Michigan should worry about: Michigan has allowed 15 touchdowns on 18 red zone possessions (83%), good for #122 in the country.

When they play Michigan: So much pointing. So much laughing. Not by us, mind you… but by many.

Next game: vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m., BTN (PSU +2.5)

Maryland (2-1)

Last week: COVID, things of that nature

Recap: No one is accusing Maryland of either faking their COVID positives or actually licking doorknobs to avoid the Ohio State game. But in light of last year’s 73-14 loss to the Buckeyes, the COVID pause came at a very convenient time. If you’re worried about losing momentum, “reenacted the latter stages of the Masque of the Red Death” is preferable to “played Ohio State.”

As of this writing, there is no word on whether the Maryland/MSU game will take place, but they did not practice Wednesday, which probably means the game isn’t happening. However, as Wisconsin has demonstrated, “don’t practice for two weeks and then just show up on game day and beat the everloving shit out of a mediocre team from Michigan” is a viable strategy.

This team is as frightening as: Getting boatraced by a Turtle. 

​

Google Image Search remains horrifying, but undefeated.

Fear Level = 10

Michigan should worry about: CDC guidelines, mostly.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maryland does have two wins, but those two wins came over teams with a combined record of 1-7.

When they play Michigan: Dontay Demus. Looooots of Dontay Demus.

Next game: Against Michigan State. Maybe. But probably not. [Ed-Ace: Definitely not, as it turns out.]

Ohio State (3-0)

Last week: Game canceled

Recap: Very cowardly of Ohio State to refuse to play Maryland. Very cowardly indeed.

This team is as frightening as: Fear implies some sense of the unknown. Here… uh… we know. Fear Level = 0

Michigan should worry about: Ohio State is now (a) healthier and better rested than they otherwise would have been, and (b) is going to be more anxious rack up some style points

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Dammit why does this category even exist for Ohio State.

It's a convention. An artifice. a custom.

Bolded Alter Ego? What the hell?

You broke the fourth wall and questioned the meta, so I'm here. And I would like to point out that this is all your fault.

Wait, me? What did I do?

You violated the most important stricture of this stupid series.

Never predict Rutgers to make a bowl game?

No. You have two jobs: overuse historical analogies…

check

…and designate one team as the team as…

oh God.

Yup.

I forgot The Rock.

Ding ding.

OKAY, WE CAN FIX THIS. We just need to identify the Big Ten team that most exemplifies The Rock, and everything will be fine.

What, so, a team with a foundering offense, an almost pathological predictability, and a general inability to execute even the fundamentals of the game, leading to a mind-bending stagnation that makes your brain say "surely this thing is moving somehow" when you can clearly see that it is not?

Exactly!

Sound like anyone you know?

…

…

aw hamburgers. 

I'll see myself out.

When they play Michigan: Canceling this game is in the best interest of the health and wellbeing of society. Also there is a disease or something.

Next game: vs. Indiana, noon, FOX (OSU -20)

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Minnesota (1-3)

Last week: Lost to Iowa, 35-7

Recap: Minnesota has reached the “Kirk Ferentz is dunking on you” stage of the season. This is not a good stage.

The Gophers took a timeout with 19 seconds left in a 35-0 game. This is perhaps not Roberts Rules of Football Order etiquette, but it is merely a faux pas and not a full What’s Your Deal. Ferentz, in response, took ALL THREE TIMEOUTS. In a row. Because he could.

Ever seen Kirk Ferentz with a shit-eating grin? I hadn’t. Now I have.

Ferentz’ quote after the game was:

“They called a timeout to get a look at what we were doing and reconsider, so we just wanted to make sure that we got a good look at what they were doing,” Ferentz said. “No sense taking them on the bus with us, right? [The media] reminds us about that a couple of times over the last 22 years. I figured we’d take Floyd with us and leave the timeouts here.”

Dang.

Also, spare a thought today for Mohamed Ibrahim, who is doing his best to Sisyphus this thing by himself. Ibrahim is leading the nation in both carries (32.5 per game) and rushing yards (179 per game).

Next game: vs. Purdue, 7:30 p.m. Friday, BTN (Minn +3)

Michigan State (1-3)

Last week: Lost to Indiana, 24-0

Recap: Michigan State gave redshirt freshman Peyton Thorne most of the snaps in relief of Rocky Lombardi, and it did not help. Thorne went 10-20 for 110 yards (5.5 YPA) and a pick. State ran for 2.5 yards per carry, and are dead last in the Big Ten, and #124 out of 126 nationally, at 2.2 yards per carry on the season. They are ahead of only Cal and Mike Leach’s 100% Natural Feel-Good Family Band Solution at Mississippi State when it comes to running the ball.

2020 has sapped the fun of Michigan State being objectively horrifying, but make no mistake: they are abject. Putrid. Stank. And other synonyms.

Next game: Hey, hi Maryland. Sorry, I didn’t see your text until now. Yeah, Saturday might still work, but I've gotta check on a few things. I'll get back to you ASAP.

Indiana (4-0)

Last week: Won at Michigan State, 24-0

Recap: I think we were all comfortable with the idea that Indiana had improved just enough that their zany antics resulted in wins rather than heartbreaking losses. That was fine. We can process that. What is harder to swallow, though, is the idea that Indiana is now the team that jumps out to 24-0 halftime leads and just sits on their opponent for the last 30 minutes.

Indiana’s second half drives went for 8, 4, 6, 4, and 11 plays at an average of about 25 yards per drive, and resulted in no points. Which was fine, because Michigan State’s second half drives went for 6, 3, 10 (hurray!), 3, and 4 plays at an average of 19 yards per drive… and resulted in no points.

This week is Indiana’s last, best chance to recapture the CHAOSTEAM spirit. They are a three touchdown underdog to Ohio State, and I just know they have a valiant effort with a side of heartbreaking loss in them still.

Next game: @ Ohio State, noon, FOX (IU +20)

The Rest of the West

Illinois (1-3)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 23-20

One thing to know: It probably won't be enough to save Lovie's job, but good for the Illini.

Next week: @ Nebraska, noon, BTN (ILL +15.5)

Iowa (2-2)

Last week: Won at Minnesota, 35-7

One thing to know: Iowa has quietly turned things around a little bit, albeit against Michigan State and Minnesota. The running game has had to do most of the work, as Spencer Petras is dead last in the conference with a 102.7 passer rating. For comparison purposes, John O'Korn's passer rating in 2017 was 102.1. Fortunately, Tyler Goodson has emerged at running back, rushing for 255 yards on 34 carries (7.5 ypc) and four touchdowns over the last two weeks.

Did I mention the Shit-Eating Kirk Ferentz Grin?

 Next week: @ Penn State, 3:30 p.m., BTN (Iowa -2.5)

Nebraska (1-2)

Last week: Beat winless Penn State, 30-23, to keep Penn State winless

One thing to know: Nebraska came out like a ball of knives, scoring 17 points in their first three possessions, then tacking on a defensive touchdown on the next possession to go up 24-6. They then spent the next seven drives spinning lazily in circles and had to stave off two Penn State red zone trips in the final five minutes to secure the win.

This is part of a weird trend for Nebraska. In the Huskers’ three games, they have outscored Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State by a combined score of 54-37 in the first half. They have been outscored in the second half of those games by a combined 59-3.

Next week: vs. Illinois, noon, BTN (Neb -15.5)

Northwestern (1-0)

Last week: Won at Purdue, 27-20

One thing to know: If Northwestern beats Wisconsin on Saturday, they have somewhere between an 18% and 28% chance of winning the Big Ten West. No… wait… sorry, I meant they have between an 18% and 28% chance of making the DADGUM COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF.

Okay this is a wild graphic. If NU and Ohio State win this weekend, Northwestern has an 18% chance to make the Playoff. And if NU and Indiana win, Northwestern has a 28% (!!!!) chance to make the Playoff WHAT THE HELL pic.twitter.com/fkJIfvVLpH

— Inside NU (@insidenu) November 16, 2020

If they beat Wisconsin, we will be forced to discuss Northwestern football. Until then, we will not.

Next week: vs. Wisconsin, 3:30 p.m., ABC (NW +7.5)

Purdue (1-0)

Last week: Lost to Northwestern, 27-20

One thing to know: Purdue also plays football.

Next week: @ Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. Friday, BTN (PUR -3)