NCAA Tournament Preview: Duke
The Essentials
WHAT | 8 Michigan v. 1 Duke |
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WHERE | Charlotte, NC |
WHEN | 2:40PM |
THE LINE |
Michigan +9.5 KenPom: Michigan +11 (13% win) |
TELEVISION | CBS. |
"More like Puke." "More like White Devils." etc.
Shock the World.
Tempo-Free Breakdown
If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy:
Michigan v. Duke: National Ranks | |||
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Category | Michigan Rank | Duke Rank | Advantage |
Mich eFG% v. Duke Def eFG% | 44 | 7 | D |
Mich Def eFG% v. Duke eFG% | 145 | 18 | DD |
Mich TO% v. Duke Def TO% | 16 | 98 | M |
Mich Def TO% v. Duke TO% | 242 | 30 | DDD |
Mich OReb% v. Duke DReb% | 323 | 192 | DD |
Mich DReb% v. Duke OReb% | 62 | 80 | M |
Mich FTR v. Duke Opp FTR | 343 | 34 | DDDD |
Mich Opp FTR v. Duke FTR | 36 | 195 | MM |
Mich AdjO v. Duke AdjD | 37 | 2 | D |
Mich AdjD v. Duke AdjO | 28 | 4 | D |
Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.
Have I made the "hide ya kids, hide ya wife" joke too many times yet? Yes? Darn. Well anyway, Duke is really good at the basket-ed ball.
Guard Nolan Smith has been their most-frequently deployed player this year, but with the return of the nation's #2 freshman (as a recruit) Kyrie Irving, the guard play may be less of a Smith monopoly. He's an efficient shooter and a very good assist man.
In the frontcourt, Kyle Singler and the Plumlees are all over 6-8, and they're the main reason Duke is 6th in the nation in effective height. Despite that height, Duke is a good-not-great rebounding team. Deploy the VOGRIT.
Unlike Tennessee, Duke has no obvious weaknesses. Which, duh, that's why they're a 1-seed instead of the worst 9-seed in history. Michigan is going to have to shoot the lights out, and hope Duke doesn't do a great job of same. Without playing a near-perfect defensive game (and getting a bit of luck), Michigan probably can't win.
Elsewhere
Dylan has been rockin' it all week at UMHoops. Press conference video and transcript, more video, and of course The Preview. Very in-depth, so check it out. GBMW previews.
Predictions
Michigan is as hot as any team in the country, but Duke is Duke. As noted above, this is going to require a near-perfect performance or a very healthy dose of luck for the Wolverines to emerge victorious. I think Matt Vogrich plays double-digit minutes and gets a fair number of MANBOUNDs, and that Darius Morris finishes with a more impressive statistical day than either of Duke's star guards. HOWEVA, Michigan's bigs have trouble staying out of foul... uh... trouble, and Duke pulls away late in the game. The Blue Devils win it, 75-62.
Prove me wrong, Blue.
March 20th, 2011 at 11:42 AM ^
If Duke is a better version of Illinois we may not have to worry much about foul trouble. They are a jump shooting team as are we so unless either side decides to start fouling jump shooters we may be ok. We'll know in about 3-5 hours.
March 20th, 2011 at 11:43 AM ^
A chance to send home the defending champs in their own state! (Although if UNC wins it will be a very pro Michigan crowd!)
HAIL!
March 20th, 2011 at 11:54 AM ^
From what some individuals from NC have said here, crowd shouldn't be an issue anyway. Unless they went there, most NC'ers aren't too fond of Duke.
March 20th, 2011 at 11:48 AM ^
Win or lose I am actually pretty pumped about playing Duke today as opposed to a medoicre team. The reward of winning against a team like Duke right now gives us an amazing opportunity.
March 20th, 2011 at 11:53 AM ^
SHOCK THE MONKEY
March 20th, 2011 at 12:00 PM ^
Duke doesn't cover the spread but M still loses a well-played game.
March 20th, 2011 at 12:10 PM ^
Certainly, Duke is Duke. They-AH .....on TVEEEE ....moar thaaan .....Leave it to BeavAAAAAAAAAAAAAH.... reruns.
March 20th, 2011 at 12:18 PM ^
After all these years; the Duke Blue Devil logo -- it is Krzyzewski, in a mask.
Holy shit. Your right!
March 20th, 2011 at 12:28 PM ^
Other high seeds haven't been faring too well and/or have been struggling. Hopefully Duke follows suit.
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