With the continued lull in Michigan athletics action, it's time to open up the hoops mailbag, which was full enough that I'm splitting this post into two parts. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions.

BIG ConTENders sorry sorry

After watching some uninspiring performances by the rest of the presumed top teams in the big ten, can you handicap Michigan’s biggest threats to the league crown?

— Jawn Legend (@iamstefanzonia) February 3, 2021

I'm going to base this on the premise that the Big Ten finds a way to cram in most to all of the postponed games on the schedule; otherwise, this exercise gets complicated, and the conference hasn't given any indication as to what they'll do in the event teams don't play the same number of games.

There are four teams that have a semi-realistic shot of catching Michigan (8-1 Big Ten) atop the standings: Illinois (8-3), Iowa (7-3), Wisconsin (8-4), and Ohio State (8-4). I'd rank the biggest threats to the Wolverines in that order. Naturally, I chose to answer this question hours before the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes play each other, though given the game is at Carver-Hawkeye there's only so much the outcome could sway my opinion.

1. Illinois. Defending a big, NBA-level lead guard in Ayo Dosumnu is going to be a challenge for Michigan's starting backcourt. Kofi Cockburn is, in many ways, Hunter Dickinson with an extra year of experience. The Illini are balanced and well-coached on both ends of the floor. They also have the easiest remaining schedule of the top five contenders, according to Bart Torvik.
2. Iowa. Terrifying for obvious reasons: the #1 offense in the country, the top contender for player of the year honors, a system that puts traditional centers in a bind, a deep bench, the potential for a torrent of three-pointers, and so on. Of course, Iowa games are also terrifying for Hawkeye fans, because they're liable to make opposing offenses look like... Iowa. When adjusted for schedule quality, only Nebraska has a worse defense in conference play. Iowa also has a tough closing stretch, facing Wisconsin and Ohio State twice each with road trips to Indiana, Michigan State, and Michigan.
3. Wisconsin. We've already seen Michigan snatch this team's soul. The close to their schedule is brutal, too: they play Illinois and Iowa twice apiece, host the Wolverines, and play road games at Northwestern and Purdue. They're better than what we saw in the first matchup (they'd better be) but I don't see them getting through that gauntlet in title contention.
4. Ohio State. Settling in as a less extreme version of Iowa, the Buckeyes rank 4th in offense on both KenPom and Torvik and in the back half of the 60s on defense. Chris Holtmann has done a remarkable job getting the most out of a weird roster. I'm not sure OSU can sustain their status as a top ten team by advanced metrics as Big Ten opponents catch them a second time and they also face, by Torvik's numbers, the toughest remaining schedule in the conference.

Does this list happen to line up with Torvik's conference title odds? Perhaps. 

Okay, definitely.

[Hit THE JUMP for Hunter Dickinson against double teams, late-season breakout candidates, and more.]

Dickinson Defeating Doubles?

passes like these have been an adventure [Campredon]

Why did Dickinson have trouble with Minessota's double teaming in the second game, but not in any other game. Brian said something about long arms; if that's the case, what he do when we play other long armed teams?

— Bump Bailey's Ashes (@BumpBaileyAshes) February 3, 2021

I chose this question because the premise isn't correct. While Minnesota's hard doubling in the rematch produced the most notably bad game from Hunter Dickinson we've seen, it doesn't stand alone as an example of the freshman having some trouble when help is sent his way.

While Dickinson's overall post-up numbers are phenomenal, they take a dip to "merely very good" when he's doubled, and it appears teams are throwing more help at him—and with more efficacy—than earlier in the season. I don't think size is the primary issue. Maryland, for instance, doesn't have much length as a team, particularly in the frontcourt, but they were able to force a turnover here because Dickinson rushes a pass into traffic when the help arrives:

While you might be able to pin some blame on Isaiah Livers for an ill-timed cut on the above play, these forced passes haven't been isolated incidents:

Dickinson's turnover rate in Big Ten games is a higher-than-ideal 22.8% and he's dished out only two assists against 12 turnovers in the last three contests. While I'm not expecting numbers that extreme to continue, it's becoming clear Dickinson needs to develop another way to counter the double beyond a baseline drop-step, which is generally only available when the defense screws up by arriving late or being out of position.

More than anything, though, he just needs to be more patient. His initial instinct on these plays is usually good: if he doesn't have an immediate path to the hoop, he often takes a power dribble or pivots away from the basket to give himself extra space to survey the floor. He's still rushing some of the resulting passes, though, and I don't think he needs to be in such a hurry; he's 7'2 and keeps the ball high, so the help defender should be more likely to foul him than get a steal if he reaches for the ball.

Given Dickinson has displayed the ability to ably handle extra defenders, I'm optimistic this won't become the key to picking apart Michigan's offense. That said, smart teams that can change up their post defense to keep Dickinson guessing—and, yes, throw longer defenders into the passing lanes to pick off passes—should be able to generate a couple turnovers. Dickinson's overall post success and the way his presence bends defenses away from shooters should more than make up for those.

While this feels like picking nits given Michigan has the most efficient post offense of any high-major team, it's something that could become a more pressing issue if they catch the wrong opponent in the postseason. Hopefully one benefit from this midseason pause is an increased focus on studying how to handle double-teams.

Late-Season Breakout Candidates

going up [Campredon]

Hi Ace!

All things being equal, who on the team has the highest remaining ceiling to improve their game in a tangible way during the course of the remainder of the season?

— Hoover Street Rag (@hooverstreet) February 3, 2021

This one feels like a layup. There are a few guys who can make improvements in a specific area: Mike Smith with turnovers, Franz Wagner with three-pointers, the Dickinson stuff outlined above, etc. There's one guy, though, who seems like he could go from bit player to difference-maker. Not a lot of college players are capable of this:

Brandon Johns has flashed high-level play at both center and power forward; he's also reliable for one or two plays a game that make you pull your hair out, and I imagine that's a big reason why he doesn't receive consistent playing time. He also makes some plays that make you wonder how he's not a starter putting up double-doubles on a regular basis.

Zeb Jackson also deserves a mention, though it feels like cheating to pick the four-star freshman with obvious upside who's barely played meaningful minutes. Juwan Howard is trying to work Jackson into the rotation as the third true guard and a functional version of him would be extremely nice to have down the stretch. His breakout is more likely to occur next season.

Weird Guys Era?

can you spare a point guard [Campredon]

Ace,

With this year beginning to look worse and worse, what does the next couple years look like for Michigan State?

Thanks for all the great writing!

Matthew

I'd love to say that Tom Izzo's program is dead and buried. I really would. Even with this ugly year and a roster that doesn't seem to have much going for it, however, I'd be stupid to say that. State has the seventh-ranked class in the country for 2021 bringing in much-needed backcourt help in five-star SG Max Christie and top-60 PG Jaden Akins. They'll bring most of this team back—Josh Langford is the only scholarship senior—and whatever personnel losses they sustain shouldn't hurt too much.

That said, Izzo probably needs to hit the transfer portal for a real big man. Running it back with whoever remains of Joey Hauser, Thomas Kithier, Marcus Bingham, Julius Marble, and Mady Cissoko may be asking for the Big Ten to knock them right in the jaw again. The backcourt upgrade should get them back into the top half of the conference but they'll need much better post play to contend for a banner.

There's a chance top-40 2022 C Enoch Bochye reclassifies so he can arrive for next season, and at 6'10/240 he's got excellent size, but relying on a center who should be a senior in high school would be a big roll of the dice. Some MSU fans are holding out hope that 2022 phenom Emoni Bates reclassifies and enrolls for 2021 as well, which... hope is a nice thing.

Given how quickly a roster can be made over, I'm reticent to discuss specific predictions about MSU's long-term future. Unless a lot of dominos fall the right way, however, it's hard to see them catching Michigan soon. I'm not expecting this year to be the norm, by any means, but without a major talent infusion it's also hard to see the Spartans rounding into top-ten form right away.