Michigan 87, Illinois 91
This game could have been any in the first half of the season. There was lackadaisical offensive rebounding, missed assignments on defense, freshmen turning good possessions into fadeaway long twos, wingers picking up ticky-tack fouls, and Hunter Dickinson setting up way too high in the post.
This game also could have been any in their resurgent February. Michigan corrected its mistakes on the fly, contested the rim with its lineup of two bigs, cycled into drawing three charges (could have been five), found buckets from a more aggressive Dickinson in the paint, fixed a dislocated finger, and erased a late deficit to put themselves in position to win a desperately needed Q1 road game in the Big Ten.
This game also could have been academic, had Michigan admissions found their way to letting Terrance Shannon finish a few credits of his Texas Tech degree on campus. Illinois, like every other D-I university in America, had no issues. Michigan, like every team without a wing eraser like Shannon, had an impossible time shutting that guy down.
This game could have ended down 7 near the end of regulation. It could have ended up 7 near the end of the first overtime. This game could have put them in the tournament field. Instead, this game ended on a Joey Baker airball.
Michigan started hot early, with an early threes from their two stars Hunter Dickinson and Kobe Bufkin. But things quickly turned into a slog as neither team was able to get the shots they were hunting. Illinois mostly took advantage of the slippery hands of Dickinson, who had three turnovers in the frame to just four field goals. It certainly wasn't Dickinson's best half; he struggled to get the ball deep into the post, and settled for a lot of low-percentage hooks.
The other issue that came back emphatically in the first half was a rusty Jett Howard. In his first game back from an ankle injury, Jett was the usual culprit on missed rotations and boxouts. Other than an impressive early drive and dunk, Jett wasn't great on the other end either, forcing offense when it wasn't there and missing open teammates when it was. Michigan held a 2 or 4 point lead most of the half, but missed a big opportunity to generate a real lead when Dickinson tipped a Kobe Bufkin miss back out to the arc and Jett sleepily allowed the dribbler to be snatched by an opportunistic Illini. Instead of a shot at a 6- or 7-point lead Jett had to foul on the breakaway. It was the second time he'd turned a turnover into a foul counter on himself. Those fouls would be relevant.
Late in the half, Illinois took a 33-31 lead when Jett failed to box out Ty Rogers on a clock-draining drive by Shannon, leading to an and-one dunk. Dug McDaniel drew a foul on the floor but missed the front end of a one-and-one to give Illinois a two-point lead going into the break.
The Wolverines started Will Tschetter in both halves, and both times he looked overmatched, picked up quick fouls, and had to leave the floor. Michigan would go with Reed or Terrance Williams at the sore four spot the rest of the way. Jett also spent long stretches in the second half on the bench after Illinois finally hit a few of their stepback triples to build the game's first lead of any consequence.
That's when Kobe Bufkin dislocated his finger. As a horrified Jaelin Llewellin looked on, Bufkin's finger was put back in place. Kobe then promptly hit stepback threes in back-to-back possessions, capping a 10-0 Michigan run that put the Wolverines up 57-56. Illinois replied with a run of their own to go up 70-63 with 2:35 remaining in the 2nd half. Jett checked back in.
Earlier in the season it might have ended at that. Instead both teams traded 7-0 runs to force two overtimes.
Michigan forced the first on strong defense by Tarris Reed, good post work by Hunter Dickinson, a desperation drive through two defenders by Kobe Bufkin, and Jett sinking an open three. Michigan had the ball with a chance to win, got the ball to a singled Hunter, but contact wasn't called and a good look didn't fall.
Their momentum carried into the extra five. Dickinson got away with a travel to create a bunny, and sank a floater on his next post touch to go up 79-74. Illinois tried another stepback three, a good bet this game since caroms off bricks were their best source of offensive rebounds, but this time Bufkin came down emphatically with the rebound. Jett sank a pair of free throws to put his team up 81-74.
Illinois responded with their own 7-0 run. Shannon drove into both Reed and Dickinson to draw contact for an and-one. Michigan struggled to inbound the next possession, and Dickinson picked up a tetchy but callable offensive foul trying to dribble himself clear instead of just calling timeout. Shannon drove under the basket for two, Dug missed an open three off a Hunter double, and Shannon drew another foul on Reed, who fouled out on the play. Michigan had the ball with 21 seconds to end it, but Duke transfer Joey Baker pulled the trigger early, and missed his three. Jett Howard collided with Kobe Bufkin trying to rebound, and Illinois had a chance to win but fumbled it instead of shooting as the first overtime expired.
Falling behind by five, Michigan had their chances to force a third overtime. Illinois's Coleman Hawkins fouled Dickinson, and called and received a hook and hold review. The review just showed him fouling Dickinson a lot, Hawkins kept yammering anyways.
Still up three, Illinois went hunting for daggers. A pullup triple fell short enough to come off the rim hard, but Jett boxed Shannon out to the free throw line to collect the rebound. Unfortunately he got swatted at on the other end, and Illinois got possession on the tie-up. They missed another heat check, followed by a Jett Howard miss opened by a double on Dickinson. Illinois the drew up an open three for their sharpshooter that also missed.
With enough time left for a stop and two possessions, the Wolverines got the ball to Dickinson low, who backed down a still-complaining Matthew Hawkins, and scored through contact, but missed his and-one opportunity, part of 2/5 night from the stripe for the big man. The ball then went to Shannon, but Jett got in front of him and forced a terrible shot. Unfortunately this one was so off it rimmed back out to Illinois. Jett had to foul, his fifth.
Dug McDaniel took the ball upcourt and called timeout. With 6.3 seconds left, Juwan Howard schemed a wide open three off the inbound for Baker, who rushed his shot, and airballed.
Michigan travels to Bloomington on Sunday for one last shot at a tournament resume, barring a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament. If they don't win that game, they can look back at this game, or that game, or the many, many, many games this season they could have won, but ultimately came up short.
Box score after the jump.
Playing what if with Llewellyn is legit because he was on the roster and got hurt.
Playing what if with Shannon is dumb though. He was never on the team. We aren't playing what if with recruiting misses or other transfers we didn't get. I don't care if he wanted to be here or not, he was never on the team, we knew he wasn't going to be on the team, and hence we had the chance to take someone else and give someone else the scholarship and NIL money.
An injury is a truly bad luck event that can't be planned around and you can't give that scholarship / NIL money to anyone else, but you can with a missed recruit or transfer.
Just a disappointing loss. Had UM just won a couple more games earlier in the year this close loss would be viewed as a good sign of a team coming together for a long tourney run; instead they're fighting for a spot to even play in the postseason. Neither team in this game is particularly good, but Illinois finally won a war of attrition.
I won't complain about the refs beyond the fact they were inconsistent all game for both sides, creating a disjointed contest where neither team seemed happy.
Jett has a bright future but this was a game that reminded me that he's still got a lot of work to go to grow into a complete player. He still floats around too much on offense and isn't in the right position defensively. Yes he scored 15 points but it was on 14 shots and he still missed rebound opportunities. It would be great to have him back next year to see how he improves with an off-season, but I doubt that happens in Ann Arbor.
A small silver lining is that basically every other bubble teams lost last night so UM didn't lose ground. It's still a long shot barring a BTT run but the door probably isn't much more closed than it was when the night started.
I haven't felt like this since New Year's Eve.
Probably because of your taste in vokda:
and the realization that you overpaid for a nonsense marketing story…
The turnovers were not great but most of them were in the first half and we managed to mostly overcome them. Second half was much better. The problem in my eyes were the dribble drives in the paint and all the layups and dunks. Illinois had 46 points in the paint to our 32. They had a pretty miserable shooting day from outside but we failed to keep them on the perimeter. If we could defend those dribble drives better we probably win that game pretty easily.
The story is not Baker's airball or anything we failed to do offensively. The story is poor team defense and its been that way all season. And to name one glaring example -- I love Jett and think he will be a really good player but the young man needs to work really hard on his defense and rebounding. The dilemma is he's too good offensively to sit on the bench but he's a liability defensively. Really bad matchup with Shannon. He was getting beat all over the place and it was a big reason why we lost.
I'm not convinced Jett is that big of an asset on offense. He often dribbles and hopes, and I don't see that the offense is particularly more effective on the floor than when he's off it. (And, I think, we've lost the last three he played in, and won the last three he missed (depending on how you count the MSU game).
I'm not down on him, and obviously he hit two clutch threes late in the game. But we talk like we're forced to balance his defensive liabilities against his offensive brilliance, and I don't think that's correct.
The good news is ... perhaps even the NBA scouts will agree he's not ready yet and he will accept the need to return for at least one more year? Damn, if we get him, Bufkin, and Hunter back, plus Dug with another year of experience ... I'll take that!
Jett is a threat as a shooter and will draw defender(s) out to the perimeter which I guess can open things up down low for Hunter and/or Reed. That's an advantage. And when he's hot shooting, there's few that are better at the collegiate level. But yeah, the defense...not good. I see a lack of aggression and experience on the defensive end. I am not going to say lack of effort because all our guys are trying hard.
You're correct, he's not that big of an asset. He's not been efficient. Just 106 Ortg in conference play on less than 40% FGs.
But it's mostly that he takes usage away from the much more efficient Kobe and Dickinson.
Michigan has an amazing 1-2 punch in those two. You saw that when Jett went off the floor, Kobe took over. That was the dynamic the previous three games and it just works better unless Jett is on fire which isn't that often. Not often enough to make up for the hero balls that don't go down.
I've gained a lot of respect for this team in last couple of weeks
It's a shame we lost to CMU or we'd be in
I still have hopes we can go on a run in the BIG Ten tourney and make the dance
We're so results-oriented here. If Michigan wins, they played great, and if Michigan loses, the whole world must burn.
Just wanted to come on here and note that Michigan played its ass off last night, hit tons of clutch shots (that Bufkin jumper plus the foul was huge!), and came up a bucket short in double overtime on the road against a higher-ranked team. You just can't complain about a lack of effort or balls. That was a showing, my friends, and while they need to get better, I'm pretty confident they will.
Good job, boys. You represented us well last night.
Tough loss, but we won won Sunday we needed a 5% make chance shot to go in to force OT and win. So close losses and wins happen. We lose to Wisky Sunday and NIT seeding is all we are looking at. As it is, we have a chance to win at IU although they will be rested and ready to play. Lose to IU and we need to win the BTT to get in.
Baker airball should’ve been drawn up for Kobe.
I think it was but they left Baker to double someone (either Hunter or Kobe). He had to take that shot, it was a great look. He rushed it because he thought he was going to get fouled (but the play worked so well he was more open than he expected).
Make some, you miss some.
Still refusing to play the two bigs at the start of halves. Jett should never be out there without Tarris.
Tarris fouled out so it's hard to complain in this one that he wasn't played enough.
And I think having him in with Jett is good. Jett is so bad at defense and rebounding and Tarris provides a lot of rim protection and rebounding to help make up for it.
So, Michigan lost every hustle and extra effort category in their gut-wrenching 2 OT defeat at the hands of an undermanned Illini team. Michigan was outscored in the paint by 14 points, 46-32, off turnovers, 1, 12-13, second chance points, 15-9, fast break, 6, and bench, 11, 20-9.
Those are hustle, efficiency, extra production points. Michigan has failed in those areas all season. And yet those are points you can get just by being more alert, hustling with purpose and stealing points where not anticipated. In short, they are terrible at getting loose balls and this leads to frustratingly tough, close losses.
And in failing in those circumstances, the team has put itself in must win tournament mode for the rest of what remains of this season. It's a shame because this team does compete and play hard most of the time. And it is capable of beating anyone.
But to have that mindset, you must succeed in wanting and taking the ball from your opponent every time it's loose on the floor or caroming off the rim. It just appears to me, this team just doesn't value that part of the game.
Whether it's lack of experience or failure to recognize how taking care of the basketball and not giving away possessions translates into winning can only be understood by making plays more than simply acting on that premise. Michigan is hardly alone in that evaluation. But it's a lesson with consequences. And Michigan is seeing how those play out.
Pretty astonishing Michigan was all alone in second place with a chance to tie Purdue for the regular season trophy after the way it appeared to be going to start February. I sure hope the chips fall right because history tells us if we get in this team can be in the Sweet 16 battle tested.
I gotta admit, I have no idea how +/- works in basketball. Adding up the stats for Michigan, it looks like we're a total of -24 ... in a game we lost by 4. Meanwhile, Illinois' +/- adds up to plus 24.
And the only two Michigan players with a positive +/- on the evening are Tarris Reed and ... Will Tschetter, both with a +3.
If a statistic is either that unhelpful or that confusing, I don't see the purpose of including it.
I get that everyone hates admissions, but Harbaugh and football has managed to contend for national titles with the same admissions standards that are apparently keeping Howard and basketball from making the tournament.
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