MGoPodcast 13.5: No Lucy Talk
1 hour and 19 minutes
The Sponsors
Thank you to Underground Printing for making this all possible. Rishi and Ryan have been our biggest supporters from the beginning. Check out their wide selection of officially licensed Michigan fan gear at their 3 store locations in Ann Arbor or learn about their custom apparel business at undergroundshirts.com.
And let’s not forget our associate sponsors: Peak Wealth Management, HomeSure Lending, Ann Arbor Elder Law, Michigan Law Grad, Human Element, The Phil Klein Insurance Group, SignalWire (use the code MUPPETS), Prentice 4M, where we recorded this, and introducing The View from the Cheap Seats podcast by the Sklars, who will now be joining us for the Hot Takes segments. Please go subscribe and like their podcast, and leave your hot takes about this game in the reviews.
1. Offense vs Wisconsin
starts at 1:00
Long discussion about Cade: were the bad passes on him or the receivers? Little bit of both but we disagree on the degrees. McCarthy can run options however, which seems like an important thing. No more split zone in short situations: you’re asking for impossible blocks. Tight ends got Wisconsinized. Hello Roman Wilson (don’t step out).
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Defense vs Wisconsin
starts at 22:31
How Wisconsin was this? Quarterbackly: no. Wolf had two turnovers when he came in—similar to when Michigan lost Peters and fell apart here years ago. The front seven however! The DTs withstood some Wisconsin linemen. Ojabo had a GAME. Dax Hill had a game. Hinton and Smith and the young DTs with them looked pretty good. The interesting blitzes are an effect of running more zone.
3. Hot Takes, Special Teams, and Game Theory
starts at 39:37
Seth reads off every 4th down decision and Brian says whether he would go or not go on that one. Really there was just one we thought they got too conservative. The pooch was a bad idea—20 yards in that circumstance is worth way more than 2 seconds. Special teams was a huge difference, e.g. punt from the 17, get it back on the 40. Moody hits all three.
4. Around the Big Ten, wsg Jamie Mac
starts at 58:55
Western Kentucky could have hung with MSU if they didn’t just kick field goals. Indiana broke Penix as well as everything else. Ohio State did to Rutgers all the things we were clamoring to do to Rutgers. Nebraska did terrible things to Northwestern, with a walk-on running back.
MUSIC:
- “Marigold”—Jelani Aryeh
- “Chaise Lounge”—Wet Leg
- “Future Me Hates Me”—The Beths
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
You want your officiating to be like your uncle at Thanksgiving; you know he’s going to make one or two mistakes but you want to limit it to that.
October 3rd, 2021 at 3:42 PM ^
Early pod! We are truly blessed.
October 4th, 2021 at 6:37 AM ^
hashedtagged mgoblessed
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^
Long-time first-time non-Wolverine here. Registered just to say that (1) I don't even like Michigan but this is still my CFB site of choice; (2) you pulled these music cues out of my soul; and (3) Wet Leg is the band and "Chaise Longue" is the song, not the other way around.
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^
Welcome. Allow me to give you your first up-vote.
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:41 PM ^
oof thanks.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
I was going to comment on the bumper music as well. Much more upbeat this week. The selections are always good but too often we get sad girl rainy day music. I typically listen while walking my dog. This puts a little giddy-up in our step.
The Sklar bros are a fun addition. I think they would like to do the entire podcast!
October 4th, 2021 at 8:14 PM ^
I was also happy to hear the snippet of “Future me hates me” by The Beths. Great band. Hopefully not some sort of between the lines BPONE defeatist meaning in the song choice.
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
I was wondering myself how much was on Cade versus the WR. Either way I hope we sharpen things up before the stretch starting with MSU.
October 3rd, 2021 at 4:57 PM ^
Isn’t Gattis in charge of the receivers?
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^
Yeah he is. I understand people's concerns though
October 4th, 2021 at 2:04 AM ^
The receivers are still quite young. I don't get why everyone thought they'd be so good this year. Bell was the only established guy. The others had good but not amazing recruiting rankings. Even less surprising they struggled after Bell went out. Looks like they're starting to step up though. Periodic reminder that WR returning production is one of the biggest correlates to success in SP+ has found, and without Bell and Giles, Michigan must have been very low on that metric.
October 4th, 2021 at 8:11 AM ^
This is very true. Over the last couple of weeks we've seen Wilson greatly improve, and both CJ and Baldwin are making incremental improvements. I feel that Henning has been focusing more on punt returns and end arounds, which is okay, but I'd like to see him step up some route running drills, also.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^
On some of those throws I wondered if he was just throwing the ball away. I think it was in the third quarter but Cade threw a mid distance ball towards Roman and it landed woefully short, but between Wisconsin defenders. I found it hard to believe he missed it by that much.
October 4th, 2021 at 8:14 AM ^
The throws where Cade missed by a mile are the ones I put on the WRs taking a bad route. The alternative is that Cade just doesn't know where they're supposed to be - which I cannot believe. I thought he made some nice throws that just weren't caught when they should have been. He missed on a few, and his arm seems a little slower than we'd like, but I think he's a good QB that can win a game when needed. His deep balls are pretty nice, too.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:32 PM ^
Without watching the replay yet, I can recall 1 bad throw by Cade to Baldwin early on that was behind him.
The other throw to Baldwin that was behind him that he "dropped" (when he got crushed by a LB) could have been on Cade or Baldwin not sitting down in the zone. Not entirely sure.
There was another 2 that I remember being poor results but I don't know who it was on. Wilson on a seam that Cade threw way short of him that might have been his goal to keep it away from the safeties and Wilson should have sat down.
The other was an early slant that was low/behind CJ, though he probably should have caught it.
And while it turned out ok, the go to Wilson that was underthrown was due to pressure, but in the future he's going to have to realize when Wilson is even with a DB, that means he's in front. Lead him because he's not really a jump ball guy (assuming no Safety over the top) and those are TDs.
October 3rd, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
The 2nd Baldwin drop was on him. He was supposed to sit right where Cade threw the ball, but he kept going on his route.
October 4th, 2021 at 8:17 AM ^
This is true - had Cade led him, that would've been picked by both a DL and a LB. Baldwin lost that throw...
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:22 PM ^
The "A Very ... Podcast" on the album art is :chefs-kiss:
October 3rd, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
Shouldn’t it be “Lucy” talk, as in Lucy from Peanuts? Or am I reading that reference wrong?
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
Yes....
October 4th, 2021 at 6:21 AM ^
Should be "No Loosey Lucy Talk".
October 3rd, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
Great Sklar segment. Glad they sponsored......get them for other weeks!
October 4th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
My impression was they are supposed to be regulars now, at least for a while.
And 100% agree, their segment was great!
October 4th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
I love that bit about the past 15 years having created the current PTSD of Michigan fans. I hadn't thought about it before, but I fully agree.
I've been a fan for 50+ years now, and I can't remember ever having the kind of anxiety about big games I do these days. I mean, I was worried in the past -- I remember in 1997 being highly stressed going into that Penn State game (which, when it ended, was the first time I thought, "ooohhhhhh, this is something different") -- but ... the conviction that every time the other team scores that it is the beginning of the inevitably flood is something new.
I feel bad for Harbaugh -- he inherited such a crazy, desperate fan base, that he's forced to deal with anxieties he had little to do with creating.
October 4th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
You have described my PTSD well. Other team scores, and I think "welp, we're screwed". I need to see the offense keep improving to get over that.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:02 PM ^
I am here to say that my prayers were answered. I was wrong about this game in every conceivable way. I have never been so happy with the play calling, (except for the pitch on 2nd and goal in the 2nd qtr that lost 5 yards). Agreed with almost every 4th down decision they made. This was the Harbaugh I thought we'd always have but haven't seen in a long time. Now we all finally know what this team is capable of. I'm a believer, just hope they keep it up. Beating Sparty in East Landfill is gonna be a bitch this year!
October 4th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
I'm quite inclined to agree, except for the pitch. I've been whining for years that Michigan never uses a quick hitting play like tossing to the RB to get him outside in a hurry. I've been bitching about that since we never used Chris Evans properly! So here it is, and it gets beat by a mile...
Fuck me... LOL!!!
October 4th, 2021 at 11:28 AM ^
Yes, I grew up watching sweeps and pitch sweeps as a huge part of the game. The 49ers thrived on them. But they don't exist anymore for a reason, and we were reminded of that on that play.
Defenses attack upfield a lot more now compared to the 80s, you just can't go lateral without some sort of misdirection.
The only way to really go outside now is for the back to bounce it there if someone doesn't keep contain.
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:10 PM ^
A masterwork in reverse-jinxing from Brian. Denying Cade is even an average B1G quarterback this year was art [chef’s kiss]
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
First Sklar hot take was dead on. Going to be difficult to enjoy wins when so many are just waiting for the other shoe to drop. Look around CFB last weekend though- tons of top 25 teams lost.
October 4th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
I'm coming to accept the idea that there's a ton of parity in CFP this year and an imperfect Michigan team still might be top 10 grade. Yeah, Bama and UGA are steamrolling people. Yeah, OSU is going to frustratingly pull it all together this month and probably make the CFP. Otherwise, you look around the top 25-50 teams in CFP and who looks clearly better than us? Very few. We might be the 2nd best Big Ten team (Iowa's and PSU's early big time wins look increasingly less big time, and Iowa's offense is straight doo doo)
October 3rd, 2021 at 7:54 PM ^
2 BPONE items stood out on this podcast:
1) Still hating on Cade. Put another cyan circle around him this week, he only has a top 20 QBR in the country, hasn’t had a single turnover and has shown that he is great under pressure and on the deep ball - definitely not as good as Mertz
2) Wisconsin is not the face-mashers of previous years but they largely are what’s expected. They will not be an anchor on the schedule - they have lost 3 games to teams ranked in the top 10-15, they could easily finish the season without another loss (more likely one to Iowa).
Michigan paved a good team on the road - it’s okay to admit it. Doesn’t mean we need to start planning the national championship parade, but also no need to BPONE hedge on every achievement of this years team.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
I definitely feel where you’re coming from. This was a good victory.
Feeling the need to instantly throw cold water on this is… just strange. We’re definitely not perfect and an injury or two would change the outlook on the season a lot, but this podcast has said:
A. We’d like to see how we do against Wisconsin
B. We’d like to see what happens when our Plan A (running the ball) doesn’t work
and this game answered both. We couldn’t just lean on the run game and, yes, Cade did look shaky at points but was able to find success at others.
I don’t think you need to tell us that we’re going to beat Ohio State and go to the playoff, but the goalposts were never there this season, whomever the coaches are.
We are looking up to 1, maybe 2, teams on our schedule right now (not to say this is a 10 win regular season), and I think that’s something we can celebrate while staying cautious to not get carried away.
October 3rd, 2021 at 11:46 PM ^
The last paragraph is SPOT ON. OK, so we're not Alabama or Georgia. But we just had a GREAT road win against a tough opponent in a hostile environment. Our QB played well. Our skill players played well. Our lines and the rest of the D played well. Enjoy it.
I've been pretty negative toward this team, and I'm enjoying it. I recommend we all do the same.
Great win!
October 4th, 2021 at 2:08 AM ^
Cade has been fine, and I think the lack of turnovers gets underrated, but he hasn't been great. He's 40th in QBR
https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/individual/8
October 4th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
We are talking about two different metrics. I referred to QBR - you referred to Pass Eff.
October 4th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^
Welp, didn't look closely enough. I googled QBR and went to the NCAA page.
October 4th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
That's passing efficiency. He's actually #18 in QBR. He did a good job in a hostile stadium Saturday - I do think that the crowd was into it, at least for 3 qtrs. I was surprised at some things he did under pressure. I thought he was going to get sacked for a safety in the first half and found Corum for a first down pass.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
I know this is Brian’s point and not yours, but he’s 6th in the B1G on that list and the average ranking for B1G QBs is 54 (Cade is 40). The “not even average B1G QB play” comment doesn’t jive with the numbers
For whatever reason, Hunter Johnson (Northwestern) and Brandon Peters/Sitkowski (Illinois) don’t make this list, so the average ranking is probably even lower
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
I'm finding Brian's writing razor sharp here lately, as in days of olde when knights were bolde, etc. But he's a. . . bit. . . of a wet blanket here.
October 3rd, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
Agreed, he couldn’t seem to find any real positives after a really big win. Sounded much more like a post loss Podcast than win.
October 4th, 2021 at 12:19 AM ^
He’s getting better. He does sound like an NPR host who is pressed for time a lot, which comes off as gruff on a podcast.
October 4th, 2021 at 2:11 AM ^
How so? I feel like we listened to different podcasts. I mean, sure, he's not saying we're going to win a national championship, but his takes were pretty spot on I think. I think he was slightly too down on Cade considering he disagreed with Seth's opinion that Cade is an average Big Ten QB.
October 4th, 2021 at 9:00 AM ^
I mean, in the first minute he says he is "EXTREMELY cautious" about any optimism, and when Set says "Cade threw some good passes" then Brian comes in immediately to "correct" him by saying some were not good. I feel like this is a downfall to the podcast in general- Seth says one general statement, and Brian is there to point to anything that disproves him. It just always sounds like he's talking down to him, in my opinion.
This was not a great Wisconsin team, obviously. However, this team had TWO chances to beat PSU, where we handled them convincingly. First game of the year caveats apply, but they had a lot to play for on Saturday, including an outside chance to win the B1G West. This was a HUGE program win, I don't know how you can't get somewhat excited about that.
October 4th, 2021 at 10:48 AM ^
I really like Seth on the podcasts. He does a great job, and it seems he's worked with Brian long enough that he knows he's not necessarily being talked down to. On the MGOBLOG Roundtable last Thursday, I think Brian was the only one to pick Michigan in this game. Sam and Ira don't make picks (that I recall), but both Seth and Craig felt impending doom.
October 4th, 2021 at 11:06 PM ^
"Extremely cautious about optimism" is the kind of thing people say after losses?
I definitely do feel like Brian talks down to Seth. However, that's a totally separate issue. And also I think it's gotten a lot better the last couple weeks.
October 4th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
And did I sense some DISRESPECKT when he declared that Lucy talk is only allowed after a hypothetical Penn State win and not after a hypothetical win over a currently #11 and undefeated Michigan State?
EDIT: I see he clarifies this at the end of the podcast
October 4th, 2021 at 11:38 AM ^
I think Brian's probably into a similar camp to where I am- hurt by Michigan football so many times that you just refuse to get your hopes up again. I don't dispute that's a depressing way to watch Michigan football, but I've been gutted so many times watching this team that it's hard not to feel like I'm just waiting to be gutted again
October 4th, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
Yep....a part of me is waiting for the other shoe to drop. It doesn't help that PSU and MSU look strong, and those are road games. It doesn't help that the Death Star is waiting at the end of the season.
We look good, and I'm trying to enjoy it....I really am. I put way too much stock in Michigan's performance in my 20s and 30s, and that just opened me up to every single bad season affecting me way too much. It lingers....
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