I never thought of Irvin or Walton as better-than-average players; they have underperformed a bit, but everyone read way too much into that 8-game stretch during Irvin's second year when he played reasonably well.  Beyond that, they've played as solid starters/rotation players on a good team, not alpha dog's on a good team.  It's not their fault; they are just good players asked to do too much offensively.

I don't think recruiting has been all that bad save for last year's weird confluence of events.  I'm honestly not sure what Beilein can do in those situations, save take your lumps and try to not let it happen again.  His 2013 class was solid on paper (3 4* plus guys in Irvin, Walton, and Donnal), and 2014 felt snake-bitten with Chatman bombing out and everything with Hatch.  2015 brought in Wagner and I think he was a steal, and 2016 is a  bunch of young bigs and Simpson despite all the craziness, so we're still waiting.  

Simpson has improved in my eyes; he's much better than he was to start the year, and while he's not going to be a star he's a better offensive player than Walton and could be a pesky defender.  I think Wagner and Wilson have shown solid growth as big men; they still struggle defensively and you can only hope that improves a bit.  Getting some more athleticism on the perimeter would help immensely on that front, since at times it feels like guys are getting to the second level with only minimal resistance.

It's also a team that lacks much outside shooting, which is crazy for a Beilein team.  It's not submarining them, but on a lot of possessions it feels like it's Robinson and (maybe) Walton and that's about it for shooters, and Walton being the primary ballhander neutralizes him a bit.  I'm not expecting miracles this year, but hopefully next season guys like Wagner and Wilson can expand on that part of their game and maybe Livers or Poole can come in with it.  

Again, I'm not looking to make excuses; this team squandered whatever recruiting "juice" they got from the two long tourney runs.  But at the same time, point to me a time in recent Michigan history where they were able to sustain success without it bombing out in their faces.  It doesn't really exist.  Michigan will probably be a low-seed tourney team this year, and maybe next year they'll increment up a bit.  But yeah, unless they get a bunch of superstars they won't be competing for a title any time soon, and in a couple of years I assume Beilein will retire or be fired.  But I blindly believe that the guy who won games everywhere he coached and led this team to multiple long tourney runs can still succeed at UM, but it might take some growing pains to get there again.