Hoops Recruiting: 2023 Bigs Board
All eyes are squarely on Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate with their respective stay/go decisions that undoubtedly carry the most influence as to Michigan's success next season.
While the portal era does provide a potential source of relief, its hard to envision a transfer big that duplicates the positive impact generated by either member of the starting frontcourt. Getting both back would be the dream scenario, while a return from one of Hunter/Moussa is a very workable situation.
All that said, its difficult to imagine any situation where either of Wolverine bigs are around for the 2023-2024 season. Assuming that to be true, 2022 signee Tarris Reed would be the only true scholarship center on the roster. Signing a big in 2023 is a priority, so let's take a look at the early candidates ahead of this weekend's live evaluation period.
Xavier Booker (Indianapolis Cathedral HS/Independent G3 Rising Stars AAU)
Height Weight: Listed at 6'10/205. Appears to be accurate.
Mainstream Ranking: 4-star/35-100 range, with wide variation among services.
EM Ranking/Evaluation: While I haven't evaluated Booker in a live game, the impact resembles that of a top-50 prospect rather than backend top-100 based on the film. Legit size + length for a center and moves well for a big when transitioning from defense/offense. Legit rim protector that will that projects to block/alter shots at a high level. Lateral agility seems adequate for a kid that size, even if it isn't top-tier stuff. Perimeter shotmaking ability is a huge plus given his defensive chops and finishing ability as a roll-man/lob threat. When watching Xavier's film, I see shades of former Purdue standout JaJuan Johnson in terms of body type and playstyle. The caveat here is that Booker doesn't play the best competition in Indiana (not at all bad though) or the travel ball circuit (doesn't play for a shoe-sponsored team). Plan on seeing him against shoe circuit competition in the very near future during a few local events that match up top tier independents versus shoe circuit clubs to get a better feel.
Recruitment: Michigan offered in mid-March. Booker seemed excited about the offer in the aftermath and tentatively plans on visiting. Has a plethora of offers from top-half B10 teams along with others, but no bluebloods. Michigan State heavily involved as well. If Juwan Howard is front and center for his games this weekend, that says something about something since it's not really efficient given Xavier doesn't play on a shoe-circuit and its functionally a one-off.
Papa Kante (Connecticut South Kent School/Nike Expressions Elite AAU)
Height Weight: Listed at 6'10 (No list weight). Appears to be closer to 6'9 and likely 215-220 pounds.
Mainstream Ranking: 3-star/90-130 range overall
EM Ranking/Evaluation: I have yet to see Kante in live action either. But the film resembles that of a 70-120 range prospect. Frame is close to college ready right now, but doesn't have the sheer size that Booker has. More of a traditional back-to-the-basket big with a nice jumphook. Has a nice looking jumper from midrange and occasionally hits from distance. Gets off the floor easily, but not necessarily twitchy. Has good length and athleticism that should make a him a plus rim protector. Average agility and doesn't project to be a switchable defender on the perimeter. Need to see him on the EYBL circuit to get a good feel for how he holds up against legit size + length on both ends of the court.
Recruitment: Michigan offered in late December. In February, Papa told 247 Michigan was the school recruiting him the hardest. Offer list right now is that of a winnable recruitment, unless Kansas decides that he's a take.
Zayden High (San Antonio Smithson Valley HS/Nike JL3 AAU)
Height Weight: Listed at 6'7-6'9/185-225. He's a legit 6'8-6'9 and 210 pounds at minimum.
Mainstream Ranking: 3-star to every site (no ESPN profile)
EM Ranking/Evaluation: Projected impact resembles that of a top-50 prospect without question despite the mainstream ranking. And I'm only being that conservative on the basis that I need to see him more on the EYBL circuit. Potent perimeter shotmaker off the catch or the bounce. Outstanding vision as a playmaker for others that can facilitate offense. Appears to be a solid rim protector, with the caveat being that the competition, although formidable (Adidas Mass-Rivals), was a bit undersized. Zayden looks to be my Kyle Filipowski for the 2023 cycle. The kid that mainstreams don't love heading into the Spring/Summer, but will likely end up as a high 4-star/low 5-star prospect by August. High looks to be the perfect college prospect that may not have NBA-caliber positional size/agility/twitchiness (distinct from Filipowski that is a legit 6'11 - 7'). Look for Michigan to watch him during the live evaluation period this weekend.
Recruitment: Michigan is just now establishing contact, so impossible to measure how serious things may get, particularly since I predict Zayden is going to blow-up following the first live evaluation period this weekend. This is headed toward a national level recruitment in a hurry.
Michigan State heavily involved as well
Idk how Booker can watch how Izzo has wasted Marcus Bingham for his whole career and think "I want that to be me!"
Just from the eye test, Papa Kante looks to have an absurd wingspan for a 6'9" - 6'10" guy
Hard to say he was wasted. He just wasn’t all that good IMO
He was pretty good, but Izzo just disliked playing him more than 20 minutes. Izzo makes very strange line ups and rotations. He doesn't play some guys nearly enough and others he gives them a ton of times. I hope he doesn't change.
He was a lot better than Marble (this is not an opinion he was objectively, vastly better in almost every metric) and other guys with whom he split minutes. One could definitely argue he was wasted.
Maybe i'm just hung up on "wasted" in the sense that I feel it implies that Bingham had so much more to give. I always thought he was just a guy.
Oh no, that's certainly not what I meant. He didn't necessarily have more talent to give but he had more minutes to give.
Bingham certainly has his limitations and he was just a guy on offense but he became a really good defender (12.4 block rate and 2.9 steal rate are outstanding), and rebounder (26.6% dreb rate and 11% oreb rate are likewise outstanding).
It was clear in the first game that he was by far their best option to slow down Hunter. And then he barely played in the second game while Izzo watched HD abuse Marble.
Julius Marble was far worse than Bingham in almost every way but got 35% of MSU minutes while Bingham only got 45%. That was the "waste" to me. Seemed like that should have been more like 65% for Bingham and 15% for Marble.
He was barely utilized until the end of this year. Dude set the MSU blocks record despite being absolutely mismanaged his whole career. Izzo loves to waste his talented bigs
Even though he was a very good rim protector, he would get abused on the block by opposing big men. He only averaged 6 rebounds per game with his length and athleticism.
Every time I watched Catholic central play, Jaylen Mayfield was so much better at basketball than Bingham was at basketball.
Matt,
Just for clarity, you think this upcoming season that Reed will be the only big on the roster? Or are you referring to the 2023-24 season?
2023 class won’t help with that, the portal will be the only fix unless there is still a decent big left in the 2022 class.
yeah, I had the same question
its difficult to imagine any situation where either of Wolverine bigs are around for the 2022-2023 season
I assume this was supposed to be 2023-24? Or are we really saying it's hard to imagine either Hunter or Moussa coming back for next season?
I sure hope Matt meant 2023-24!
Meant to convey that there is likely greater than 90% likelihood that the 2022-2023 Michigan team will not feature either of Dickinson/Diabate.
So yes, a 2023 prospect has no influence on that..............but a 2023 prospect can easily see a path to early playing time because of it.
Nevermind, it’s been corrected by Matt
Matt,
I'd be interested in your take on Fardaws Aimaq if you get the chance. I've watched a decent amount of clips of his, and he seems like a reasonably skilled guy who is a legit 6'10" or so and who moves surprisingly well. But then he had some games where he was terrible from the field, and I'm not sure why.
I second this request. To me he seems like a poor man's Dickinson in that his strength is more skill than athleticism so he takes a lot of mid-range jumpers and doesn't get to the rim and get fouled a lot but he's obviously not as good of a shooter so he's probably prone to off nights on those mid-range shots/hooks.
I think he'd obviously be a very nice piece to have if the alternative is playing a freshman big minutes, but I don't think he's going to be a Kevin Obanor type difference maker for whomever gets him.
Thank you for specifying that NO blue bloods are involved with Xavier and in the next sentence mentioning that MSU IS involved for all the sparties trying to shoehorn their way into the blueblood category.
In my personal life I enjoy a good Sparty jab just as much as the next man, but in my professional capacity I have to play it straight.
Objectively, MSU is NOT a blueblood. The Spartans had a run with Magic in the late 70s, but never really had sustained success until the late 90s with Izzo. I think Tom was close to attaining blueblood status in the 2000s with four F4s and 5 B10 championships from 1998-2010.
But over the last 12 years, MSU has failed to make it out of the first weekend five times, with 4 B10 championships. So the success has declined.
That said, its clear the Spartans are in the tier below the bluebloods....... Right along with Michigan. The Wolverines have experienced consistent tournament success starting with Coach Beilein and now continued with Coach Howard. Wolverines have arguably had more tournament success (depending on subjective criteria), while not being quite as consistent in conference play.
Yeah people forget just how consistently excellent MSU was during that stretch. The old "every four year player makes at least one Final Four" was a big deal.
It's interesting to note that their fall from "one of the best programs in the country" to "a very good program" coincides with the Beilein's resurrection . I'm sure there are more factors at play but I don't doubt that Michigan's resurgence made it harder for Izzo
I definitely think it's a factor, as it is difficult to maintain two great programs in a state. But with their strong recruiting and pedigree, you still have to look at their relative lack of success in the NCAA tournament, which has much less to do with Michigan and Beilein.
Since 2016, they've done the following in the big dance:
- First round (0-1)
- Second round (1-1)
- Second round (1-1)
- Final Four (4-1)
- First four (0-1)
- Second round (1-1)
Yes, they made the tourney every year, but only once did they get past the first weekend. In 2021, they didn't make it past the First Four - has any other team ever gone from the Final Four one season to losing in the First Four the next? They've gone 7-6 in those years on the back of that FF run. Otherwise, they've gone 3-5.
Compare that to Michigan since 2016:
- First round (0-1)
- Sweet Sixteen (2-1)
- Finals (5-1)
- Sweet Sixteen (2-1)
- Elite Eight (3-1)
- Sweet Sixteen (2-1)
Michigan has compiled a record of 14-6 in the tournament during the same span of time. Time will tell if we can get over the hump to be a truly elite program, or just a very good one.
That said, msu was also kind of weird in the aughts, if you look at their tournament results. Although most schools would be more than happy with those results, it's just kind of funny to see.
- 2001 - final four
- 2002 - first round
- 2003 - elite eight
- 2004 - first round
- 2005 - final four
- 2006 - first round
- 2007 - second round
- 2008 - sweet sixteen
All that said, its difficult to imagine any situation where either of Wolverine bigs are around for the 2022-2023 season.
You mean 23-24 season, right?
Thanks Matt! Not a lot of top-end guys here. Do you sense Michigan is moving more toward Beilein-range dudes (i.e. good but not really 5-star) or is this just an anomaly?
Depending on how Booker plays against top-tier competition, I could see him entering the 5-star discussion.
Zayden is another guy I can see making a real push for top 30-40 if he consistently produces in the same manner that I witnessed in Dallas.
The obvious needs for the 2023 class are a big man and a shooting guard. Beyond that, it should be best available. I don’t get the whole waiting to see what we have thing that has been mentioned before. You’ll have at least 3 scholarships open for that class unless the portal gives us a two year player, which hasn’t been our norm.
I would add a wing man to the list. Three needs to get a championship capable team - mobile big man, shooting guard, & wing man. FC looks like he can be that combo guard if we add these 3 player needs to the team.
Juwan & staff need to get better at recruiting pieces-players that fit. I agree with commentary that they got more out of this 2021-2022 poorly constructed team than we had any right to expect.
Easily said - right?
Papa Kante (Connecticut South Kent School/Nike Expressions Elite AAU)
Please, Lord almighty, gift us a big man named Papa Kante. The memes and merch would overflow
Salivating at NIL potential with that name, too
The LEVITICUS PAYNE of this class. That loss still haunts me
Why do you say it's tough to see a scenario where either returns? I thought all signs are pointing at Hunter returning.
Meant that with regard to the 2023-2024 season. My apologies for the confusion.
"All that said, its difficult to imagine any situation where either of Wolverine bigs are around for the 2022-2023 season"
Really? This is difficult to imagine?
Matt - I really enjoy your basketball recruiting updates. Thanks! I've watched Booker play the last 3 years (he plays for my son's high school). Each year he has improved greatly. He played really well the last several weeks this season. I am not an evaluator to know what his ceiling is, but he is a good kid. Both Izzo and Painter have been to see him in person a handful of times this year, as well as last summer. Martelli has watched him in person, so there is some Michigan interest.
Go big(s) or go home.
**The typo above has been corrected - its difficult to imagine any situation where either of Wolverine bigs are around for the 2023-2024 season**
Apologies for the confusion. An office emergency popped up and I couldn't dedicate the proper time for the review/edit process. Thanks to Seth for pushing it out for me at all. The guy is a lifesaver around here.
Thanks Matt…man you had me sweating on that one! Losing one of them is bad enough but both would really suck!!!
Being a native Hoosier and having spent 15 of my adult years in Indy...I am always in favor of bringing in Indy talent. Lots of outstanding basketball gets played there.
Beilein used to bring in a fair amount of Indy talent.
Yeah, Jeff Meyer was his Indiana recruiting maestro. Didn't Archie Miller get all upset with him at some point over recruiting in Indiana? Maybe it was Crean.
EDIT: He, yeah it was Crean:
Crean aggressively went to Meyer and yelled "You know what you did, you helped wreck our program."
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