THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Michigan finally had a real game as Northwestern slowed Michigan's offense down sufficiently to allow a series of improbable shots from Vic Law and Ryan Taylor to first catch and then briefly pass Michigan down the stretch. Michigan responded; Northwestern's final attempt was reduced to an off-balance NBA three that hit the backboard and caught iron before ceasing to terrify legions of backboard-hating Michigan fans.

Now Michigan takes on their final major-conference opponent before the usual trio of buy games in mid-December and conference play beyond that. Unfortunately for Michigan's eventual seeding, South Carolina has been awful this season and currently projects as the second-worst team in the SEC.

Unless something bizarre happens this should be another suffocating defensive performance and relatively easy win.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Even Frank Martin's good teams are a bit abominable on offense. His best adjusted O mark during his time at South Carolina is 91st, which happened the same year he had the third-best defense in the country. That team beat Michigan 61-46 in a game that the mere memory of probably triggered seizures in a fair number of people reading this post, got a seven-seed in the tournament, and proceeded to go on a Final Four run.

This is not that team. This team has lost to Providence (reasonable), Wofford (okay but they're Kenpom top 100!), Stony Brook (uh), and Wyoming (uhhhhhhh). They also dropped their exhibition against a D-II team. The Gamecocks currently sport an offense Kenpom ranks 173th nationally. Also they go super fast. And swingman Justin Minaya, who had reasonably good efficiency a year ago, is out until January. This should be a bloodbath.

South Carolina's go-to guy is freshman AJ Lawson, who was barely inside the top 150 that is generally the cutoff for high-major prospects annually. He uses 30% of Gamecock possessions when he's on the floor, turning it over a quarter of the time and shooting 52/30 on the remainder. Half of his shots are from three. Good news: he gets to the free throw line a lot. Bad news: he shoots 60% once there.

Lawson may have been a bit underrated by the recruiting industry because he's Canadian—as we saw with Iggy, rankings get weird with basketball prospects from the Great North. The Athletic's Sam Vecenie actually places Lawson 49th on his latest draft rankings, one slot in front of Michigan's snake-tattooed assassin. That gives you an indication of what kind of athlete Lawson is, because he's not impressing anyone with his shooting or handling just yet.

The only other Gamecock with an acceptable ORTG after a diet of cupcakes is Hassani Gravett, a senior guard who may be living off early three point luck. After hitting 23% and 33% the last two years he's up to 42% on 33 attempts so far. His FT% has also spiked so maybe he's found a new shooting stroke that's real. Chances are there's some reversion that will happen. Gravett's beeen a high-turnover guy his whole career; Lawson has sucked away some of his usage and reduced both his TO rate and his assist rate, which was actually very good a year ago.

The four and five spots are split about equally between the United Nations contingent of Malik Kotsar (Estonia), Chris Silva (Gabon), and Felipe Haase (Chile). The former two are traditional-ish posts who are falling out of favor in the modern game, and South Carolina will have two on the floor almost half the time. Haase is willing to take a lot of threes but is hitting 28% over the course of his career. The others are inside the arc guys; if either launches it's going to be like Dererrrrrk Pardon banking one in.

If there's a star it's Silva, who uses a bunch of possessions and was the #1 player in the country last year at getting to the free throw line. His shooting has dropped off a cliff this year after not being real great a year ago (48% to 41%); he's still getting to the line a ton. The drop in shooting percentage and free throw rate is probably because even more of his usage has shifted to "other twos," which he's always taken a ton of at a poor success rate. Now 60% of his shots are in the midrange.

He's also an aggressive defender; he'll block a bunch of shots but his foul rate is stuck over 5/40 and he has issues staying on the floor. Nonetheless he's a main reason South Carolina's two-point defense is elite.

As South Carolina's offense has degraded his usage has stayed high but his percentages have declined. Like Charles Matthews, he's a guy who's very good at finishing shots created for him but not a shot creator himself.

Haase is a stretch four who plays a finesse game and isn't much of a shot-blocker or rebounder. 8% of his shot are at the rim. He's just a shooter. Kotsar is strictly a garbageman on offense; he's got low usage, a poor two-point shooting game (48%) and a rock bottom TO rate. He does block a fair number of shots and his handsy defense pokes a lot of balls free without exposing him to a ton of fouls.

The final starter is freshman TJ Moss, who sat out the first couple games but has played 25+ minutes in South Carolina's three most recent outings. He is not ready for this, with a TO rate of 26 and 44/33 shooting with close to no free throws.

There are two bench players other than Haase that get a meaningful amount of time. Keyshawn Bryant, a close-to-unranked freshman who's 0-fer on the season from three and turns the ball over a bunch. He's a driver who will take a bunch of tough shots at the rim. He fouled out in 16 minutes against Wyoming. Tre Campbell is a senior who shot 42/34 last year in just under ten minutes a game. He's at 33/28 this year with about two thirds of his shots from behind the line.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Grim. Grim, grim grim. Highlights:

• South Carolina is the #19 team in offensive tempo as they try to get shots up before the half-court can get established. This is a good way to get yourself in a giant hole against Michigan.
• Nobody can shoot at all: #252 on threes, #236 on twos.
• Also they turn the ball over 20% of the time.
• There's nothing legitimately good on offense except they don't get a lot of shots blocked.

The South Carolina defense is significantly better. They're 4th in 2PT% D but unlike Michigan this comes at a heavy cost: a ton of threes go up and they're #302 in 3P% D. That might be bad luck but also South Carolina hasn't played an opponent better than #60 Providence this year.

The Gamecocks do block a lot of shots, force a lot of turnovers, and rebound well. Their FT rate allowed is bad but depending on who they're putting on the line, eh, that's fine.

THE KEYS

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Find a solution to sagging off X. Northwestern dared Simpson to shoot; he shot; the shots did not go in. Finding something that can help in the likely event that other teams notice and adopt that strategy is a priority.

Get back and rebound. The usual. South Carolina probably won't crack 0.9 PPP unless they get a lot of transition (deeply unlikely) or offensive rebounds. Rebounding hasn't been a major issue for Michigan even against a couple of teams that crash the offensive glass super hard. South Carolina is not in the same league as UNC in that department.

Hit open threes. Also like a couple of recent opponents, this is a team that will suck down in the paint and allow you to kick the ball around the perimeter until it finds an open man. Michigan found it tough going against a Northwestern defense in the same vein as their own; this should be closer to the Purdue and UNC games in which Michigan hit 50%.

Get 'em into Vic Law territory. This team of clankers isn't going to be hitting stepback NBA threes.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 17.