THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#47 Michigan (5-1) vs #147 Minnesota (4-4)
WHERE	Williams Arena Minneapolis, MN
WHEN	9:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M -5 Torvik: M -4
TELEVISION	BTN

THE OVERVIEW

Minnesota had the most year zero year possible in 2021-22, replacing literally everyone from the prior year except for big Eric Curry. This year they're doing it again. Kenpom has them 343rd in roster continuity; this year they're replacing literally everyone except stretch four Jamison Battle. Rough.

The resulting team is not any better than they were a year ago and may be worse. They've dropped from 109th in Kenpom to 147th. They their best result against an opponent in the top 150 is a nine point loss on a neutral floor to UNLV; they have a one-point OT win over #156 Cal Baptist and one-point win over #315 Western Michigan. Purdue just hammered them by 19.

To say this is a must win for Michigan is an understatement.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Jaelin Llewellyn is lost for the year with an ACL tear, and our WAG as to how this shakes out is above: Bufkin over to the point and Isaiah Barnes in as a three-and-D type. Other options are Joey Baker starting at the two or a Bufkin/Dug McDaniel backcourt.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Minnesota is not good but Dawson Garcia has an incredible mustache.

THE THEM

Junior big Dawson Garcia is the alpha dog; he was once a highly touted recruit out of Minnesota who opted for Marquette and then transferred to North Carolina last year. He had a major role at Marquette, where he was an effective, high-usage player. He shot 53/36 from the floor, got to the line, rebounded well, and kept his turnovers in check. At UNC he was a relatively high-usage starter before he had to leave UNC and return home with multiple family members in serious ill health. He was not particularly effective in the early going there but that's mostly a big dip in 2PT% that looks like a statistical fluke.

So far at Minnesota it's been pretty rough. His three pointer isn't falling and he's been poor on the boards and can't get to the line except against meatballs. He is clearly Minnesota's best player by some distance even so and will pose a stiff test to Hunter Dickinson, who has historically had some problems defending stretch fives. Garcia is a three-level scorer with a good jumper and reasonable back-to-the-basket game, but his jumper just isn't falling so far this year.

Garcia plays the four a lot, FWIW. He's been splitting his time between the 4 and 5 about equally even before Treyton Thompson went out.

Stretch four Jamison Battle missed the first four games with a foot injury and may still be struggling through the after-effects of surgery, as his early numbers are down. He's shooting 35/31 after a 53/37 junior season, and his defensive rebounding numbers are way down. Here's what you have to know about battle: he will shooty shoot shoot. He's the definition of a finesse big but last year he was a stunning 49% on long twos, which are two-thirds of his output inside the arc. Any catch and shoot look from him is very bad, and Battle is very good off the bounce as well. He doesn't get to the rim, but a combination a 49% other twos clip with just a third of those assisted is eyepopping. He puts a high floor on Minnesota possessions… if he's all the way back.

Morehead State transfer Ta'Lon Cooper is off to an incredibly weird start. It's not often you see a guy shooting worse from the FT line (47%) than three (57%!). Last year those numbers were 66 and 35, FWIW, so this is not the most insane basketball player in the history of the world. Cooper defies HBCU transfer stereotypes by being quite big at 6'4", but his finishing at the rim is poor. He was at 60% last year in the SWAC and is at 50% here. He has a massive assist rate and will be running the show but his TO rate in A+B Kenpom games is 24, which is enormous.

Unfortunately for Minnesota this concludes the list of acceptable basketball players on the roster. 6'7" freshman wing Jaden Henley is the only other guy to consistently draw a starting slot; it's a lot to ask the composite #193 to step into a Big Ten starting lineup and it shows. His TO rate is 30 despite meh usage and he's shooting 41/25 from the floor. Rebounds and assists? No.

The last starter is, uh… let's say it's freshman wing Joshua Ola-Joseph, the #223 freshman on the composite, gets 16 MPG and has been a reasonably efficient slasher. He does not have a jumper, it appears (1/5 on threes, 7/15 from the line) and should be played to drive at all times.

The bench:

• C Pharrel Payne, the #173 composite freshman, is a 6'9", 255 beneath the rim banger who is your usual dunks-and-putbacks lower tier big. He's incredibly efficient; he creates none of his own shots. He has 4 FGAs away from the rim all year. He's 9/19 on FTs, he has a 33 TO rate, etc. He's a big guy who's big. He plays about 20 MPG.
• C Treyton Thompson is a seven footer who manages to be close to invisible on the boards and has a fairly negligible block rate. He's shot more threes (32% clip) than twos in his career. If he's available he's just a big body to bang with Dickinson. He starts when available but has gotten about 12 MPG this season.
• Freshman Braeden Carrington, the #227 composite freshman, profiles as Just  A Shooter. He's 9/30 on the season from deep.
• Guards Taurus Samuels and Will Ramberg will enter the floor and try very hard to not have to get a shot up.

THE TEMPO FREE

Minnesota is bad at everything on offense except getting to the line… and they're shooting 55% there, so that's not even a good thing. They have been pretty good at defending two-pointers (52nd) but they get killed on extra possessions.

THE KEYS

Who's the point guard? I don't think it can be Dug McDaniel for 30 minutes a game. Dug McDaniel has a 78 ORTG. He is shooting 37/27 from the floor and has a 24 TO rate. That seems like suicide. Bufkin's been good as a playmaker so far this year and has been one of Michigan's better defensive players, so it seems like he has to be the pick.

Who's the two guard? We project that Barnes is about to get a bunch more playing time and he probably will, but I'd imagine Joey Baker also gets a crack at it. The defensive flashes Barnes have displayed and his early ability to hit a couple threes seems like it would fit well, though. He doesn't need to create any shots when Bufkin, Dickinson, and Jett are in the starting lineup. Jace is another possibility in the three-and-D genre.

Can Michigan contain Dawson Garcia? Garcia-Dickinson looks like a mismatch both ways; don't be fooled by Garcia's double transfer and iffy recent numbers, he is one of the most purely talented players in the Big Ten. When he's at the five can Dickinson get out on him, and when he's at the four can anyone meaningfully contest his shots?

Can we please get a break? Just one dang break.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 5.