I'm off for the next week to recharge, so I figured before I go a combined MBB/WBB mailbag was in order, starting with a MBB/WBB combo question.

The Ultimate Basketball School?

Which school is poised for the best combined success in men's and women's basketball over the next decade? Is Michigan better positioned than Baylor or UCONN? #mgomailbag

— Matthew Duprey, PharmD, PhD (@PharmDuprey) April 8, 2021

Unless Kim Mulkey's behavior catches up to her on the recruiting trail, which hasn't happened despite her history of poorly worded (at best) statements and fraught relationship with some former players, it's hard to say any program is better positioned than Baylor. The men's team just won a national championship after making it at least as far as the Sweet Sixteen five times since 2010. The women's team has made 12 straight Sweet Sixteens and captured national titles in 2005, 2012, and 2019.

After relying almost entirely on the transfer portal to assemble this year's champs, Scott Drew recruited at a top-ten level for the 2021 class headlined by five-star wing Kendall Brown and already has a top-50 commit for 2022. It's hard to imagine that slows down now that he has a ring to show off.

UConn, meanwhile, is poised for continued dominance on the women's side. They have the best player in the country, Paige Bueckers, heading into her sophomore season, and she'll be joined by another #1 overall recruit in DC PG Azzi Fudd along with (depending on where you look) either two or three more 2021 five-star signees. Of any individual program mentioned in this section, UConn WBB has the best chance of winning a national championship in the next three years—it'd be somewhere between a surprise and a shock if they didn't get at least one.

On the men's side, though, the Huskies have the weakest program in this section. Since their unexpected national title as a seven-seed in 2014, they've made two tourneys (as a 7- and 9-seed) and haven't made it out of the opening weekend. Dan Hurley's recruiting has picked up steam but his classes are topping out with fringe top-50 prospects instead of five-stars. The last 247 composite five-star to sign with UConn was Jalen Adams in 2015 and he didn't live up to the billing, going undrafted and ending up in the G-League.

Michigan should slot in between those two schools in terms of combined success. Here's my stab at ranking these programs by most likely to win at least one national championship in the next ten years:

1. UConn WBB
2. Baylor WBB
(gap)
3. Michigan MBB
4. Baylor MBB
(gap)
5. Michigan WBB
6. UConn MBB

[Hit THE JUMP for how the WBB team can move up those rankings, a look at their recruiting, how fast PGs can pick up Juwan Howard's system, and more.]

Breaking Through

#mgomailbag what does the women’s team need to really push to the top and compete with Maryland, SoCar, et al? My limited knowledge and viewing leads me to think that it’s elite athletes at guard.

— DanK (@danielwk) April 8, 2021

My knowledge of the women's game and how programs develop is still coming along. That caveat out of the way, I agree with Dan's assessment. On the top-flight WBB teams, seemingly every perimeter player to hit the floor was either an athletic distributor and/or finisher, a sharpshooter, a defensive terror, or some combination of those.

Too often this season, Michigan's offense came down to desperately needing Leigha Brown and Naz Hillmon to carry the team, and that load proved too much to bear during Big Ten play for the Wolverines to contend. When Hailey Brown was on her game, the frontcourt could play with anyone. It's hard to win while relying so heavily on interior play without the overwhelming size and talent of Baylor, though, and watching electric lead guard Aari McDonald come within a shot of lifting Arizona to a surprise title helped display what Michigan doesn't have yet. (Not that many teams have an Aari McDonald but you get the point.)

Which brings us to the next question...

What does this year’s women’s recruiting class look like, and what’s the ceiling for next season assuming Naz comes back?

— Shreyas Ramani (@antishreyas) April 8, 2021

First of all, Hillmon is coming back; the WNBA requires players to turn 22 during their draft year to be eligible. Should that be lowered? Probably. Does it benefit Michigan this year? Definitely.

Meanwhile, Kim Barnes Arico is taking recruiting to the next level, and possibly to the one needed for a national breakthrough. Beyond the handful of no-doubt All-Americans, who tend to land at UConn and the like, recruiting projections for WBB aren't highly reliable—there are only a handful of people putting in the work to scout players around the country. Michigan is reliably getting the next tier of players; all three of their 2021 signees were nominated for, but didn't ultimately make, the McDonald's All-American Game.

It's more of a crapshoot, of course, but there's plenty of Final Four-capable talent in that area. The aforementioned Aari McDonald was the #55 recruit in the 2016 class; the only former McDonald's AA on this year's Arizona squad was sophomore forward Cate Reese.

Here's how M's 2021 commits stack up across five different scouting services:

It's a close debate whether Indiana point guard Ari Wiggins or Ohio shooting guard Laila Phelia is the best player in the class. If you're looking for an electric lead guard in the McDonald mold, though, it's Wiggins, whose scouting reports sound great even when coming from relative skeptic ESPN:

Boo Williams Invitational-April 2019: Athletic combo-guard explodes off the dribble, brings attack mode in transition game; handles in transition, changes pace; rises on jumper in mid-range game, emerging deep threat arsenal. (Olson)

Nike Nationals-July 2018: Athletic guard attacks in transition game, explodes to the rim and finishes plays in uptempo; college-ready frame with mid-range game creativity, emerging 3-point game consistency. (Olson)

KBA envisions Wiggins as a very, very fun player:

"Ari is a lefty point guard who is probably one of the fastest kids in the country," Barnes Arico said. "She comes from a super-athletic family. She can just impact the game in so many different ways, both offensively and defensively. She and I have talked about how disruptive she can be on the defensive end. She can pick up the other team's point guard 94 feet, can get tips and deflections, and can get steals in the backcourt. Her speed is incredible, allowing her to get the ball up the court in record-breaking time. She has a sweet lefty pull-up, with the ability to also knock down the three. She is so dynamic and will have a major impact for us. It will be beneficial for us to add another point guard to our team who has a different style of play."

Not that Phelia's evals sound bad, uh, at all:

Classic-in-the-Country Challenge-January 2020: Athletic guard manufactures shots, knocks down jumpers at the arc; executes in half-court game, creates into the defense, rises over defenders and delivers in mid-range game; competes on both ends of the floor; among the elite guards in the class of 2021. (Olson)

Ohio Midwest Showdown-May 2019: Athletic guard brings consistent offensive production to the back court; a shot maker with range to the 3-point line and beyond; uptempo contributor, attacks in transition, delivers results; a scoring guard with size on the perimeter. (Olson)

An athletic point guard and a defense-stretching shooting guard are just what this team needs, while Taylor Gibson is billed as a skilled 6'2 big with high-level rebounding ability. Michigan's class ended up ranked 18th on ESPN, 19th on the All Star Girls Report, and 15th on ProspectsNation. The 2020 class didn't make a major impact in the pandemic-marred season but there's plenty of talent in that group of four players who all earned four-star status from at least one outlet.

The 2022 class already has a couple verbal commits from Indiana four-stars Kate Clarke and Alyssa Crockett, who are 6'1 and 6'3, respectively, while both being listed at small forward by Prep Girls Hoops. While Michigan is still behind UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, and some other powers in talent accumulation, they're in that next tier—along with Arizona, incidentally—and that tier is catching up to the elite programs. That includes Maryland, which arguably hasn't recruited as well as Michigan over the last couple classes.

It's going to be very difficult for anyone to take down UConn next year. They're absurdly loaded. With Hillmon and Leigha Brown returning and the talent level around them going up a notch, though, it's not unreasonable to hope Michigan can make a second straight (and second ever) run to the Sweet Sixteen, and they have the capability of advancing further if the right things break their way—including, one would hope, a less absence-fraught regular season that'd give the team an easier postseason path than this year.

Does The Beilein Point Guard Rule Still Apply?

[Campredon]

Hey!

Under Beilein you all would talk a lot about how freshman point guards were not going to be great, but then there would be a sophomore bump. Is that still the case under Juwan’s offensive system? Or is there something different that should make us more confident in a freshman like Collins?

Thanks!
Peter

There's no question Juwan Howard's system is easier to grasp for a first-year lead guard. John Beilein's system was an intricate 30-second read-and-react experience that had to be simplified for even exceptional freshman point guards. Howard's offense contains a wider variety of plays, to be sure, but it's more quick-hitting and appears to require fewer on-the-fly reads. Howard is also less reliant on the point guard; he's happy working through the post instead of leaning so hard on the pick-and-roll.

Instead, there's a different impediment to freshman guards being ready for a big role: defense. Simply put, Howard has a higher standard for acceptable defense than Beilein, and his teams are more reliant on being very stingy on that end. There's more wiggle room with guards than big men on defense because they receive more help, so I'm more inclined to think a young guard can step into a starting role, but it's still far from a guarantee for anyone who's not a truly elite prospect.

Bucket Guy?

Assuming Eli and Chaundee come back and no grad transfers come in, who does the team go to when then need a bucket late (i.e., who is next year’s Juzang)?

The Chaundee Brown assumption evidently isn't so safe—TMI's Josh Henschke reports he's currently expecting Brown will go pro instead of use his extra year of eligibility. That said, my answer would be the same regardless: Hunter Dickinson is option one, and if teams give him extra attention to take that away, find a way to free up Caleb Houstan on the perimeter.