Hoops Hello: Chaundee Brown Comment Count

Brian May 19th, 2020 at 2:13 PM

Michigan has remained active in the transfer market, landing Wake Forest transfer Chaundee Brown:

Brown, like Nojel Eastern, has played three years and has one year of eligibility left. He'll try to get a waiver to play next year, and since Wake Forest fired Danny Manning he'll probably have a shot even if there's not a COVID-19 blanket waiver. Brown's other finalists were Gonzaga and Illinois, so he had some tourney-level teams after him.

[After THE JUMP: Brown in detail]

Brown was a top 50 recruit in the class of 2017, landing #36 on the composite, and he's been a starter at Wake the last two years. This puts him on another level from an up-transfer even if he hasn't been particularly efficient: his numbers were at an ACC school and should transfer more or less intact. Those topline numbers: 51/33/83 shooting and a 109 ORTG on 21% usage.

Brown is a burly wing whose game depends heavily on his physicality. His highlight film is a lot of Brown humping up shots through contact; it's light on blow-by moments where he gets himself an easy look.

Brown was Wake's third banana last year behind center Oliver Sarr and PG Brandon Childress.

Brown is a mediocre deep shooter who's hit 33% of his 270 career threes, and there's little upside from the context. He didn't hit an unassisted three on the season; from my viewing of his games it looks like his attempts are all completely reasonable. There aren't any bullcrap shots he had to take because he was on a bad team to excise.

He is an excellent FT shooter (83%) and did improve his work inside the arc last year, hitting 55% of his twos against Kenpom top 100 opposition after hitting 46% last year. Those numbers are a little light since Brown missed 7 ACC games with an injury—just 67 attempts—but he did have a four point improvement on his two point shooting over the course of the full season.

Brown had a terrific year as a rebounder; his 19% DREB rate is superb for a wing and actually went up in ACC play, where he finished 7th in the conference. He's decently active on the offensive boards as well. His assist (11) and TO rates (15) are solid for a wing who does most of his work inside the arc. FT rate is pretty low against high-level competition: he had just 30 attempts in 13 ACC games.

ADVANCED STATS

Brown's on/off splits are encouraging. The slice of the season without Brown didn't go well: Wake went 1-6 with their only win against ACC bottom-dweller Boston College. Per Torvik Wake was the #62 offense and #220 defense during this period; over the course of the season the Demon Deacons were 55th and 165th, respectively. Brown's impact at Wake is obvious in his splits:

brown

cupcakes excluded; FWIW, I ran a version of this without the seven games Brown missed and it looked more or less the same.

Brown made a major impact on Wake Forest's two point percentage on both ends of the floor and had a noticeable one on the defensive boards. Approximately zero of Wake's improvement with him on the court is three-point luck. They were a break-even team against high-major competition with him and bad without him. Put another way: over a game's worth of possessions (70), Wake was 7 points better with Brown on the court than off. (This is in part because Wake had just three rotation players with triple-digit ORTGs.)

On the other hand, Brown's Synergy profile is all over the place. Some highlights:

  • The past two years he's been in the 25th and 32nd percentile in transition, which accounts for about a fifth of his usage. Wake isn't a particularly uptempo team.
  • He's been significantly better in half-court situations, finishing in the 70th and 87th(!) percentile the past two years.
  • That latter number is hard to figure out since Synergy has him in the ~60th percentile of spot up and cut actions, which account for a large majority of his half-court usage. Cuts and putbacks (his third-most frequent halfcourt activity) are inherently efficient actions; I assume getting a third of your halfcourt usage in those situations makes you efficient.
  • Synergy credits Brown with just 14 isolation attempts on the season, 11 as a PNR ball handler, and 14 post ups. He's not going to initiate much offense himself.
  • He's a mediocre shooter in spot up situations (0.89 PPP on catch and shoot opportunities) who attacks closeouts well.
  • Synergy defensive numbers are to be taken with a grain of salt but Brown was just behind Childress as Wake's best defender with a 63rd percentile grade. On/off splits concur that Brown is a good defender.

SCOUTING TAKES

I watched Wake Forest's games against Notre Dame and Duke to get a feel for Brown's game. The stats paint a good picture of what you're going to get.

Brown plays off the ball and is largely content to take what comes to him. He's an opportunistic offensive player who will drive to the basket off closeouts or scramble situations; he's very good at identifying spots where he might be able to grab an OREB and regularly attempts to chase them down.

If Sarr misses that Brown is going to put it back.

If Brown starts a drive with a positional edge he's pretty good about creating a shot off that.

The shots he creates are often like the above: solid opportunities but not outstanding ones. A lack of height and lift means he's not always able to convert around the rim, and he's not exactly a graceful player. There's a lot of crashing around. Sometimes that results in free throws. Sometimes it results in turnovers or questionable shots. This is a 25th-percentile-transition-player event:

He is a mansome rebounder and a solid on-ball defender. He'll occasionally overcommit on a closeout and allow a drive, but I didn't catch him making a mental error over the course of the two games.

Michigan needs someone to handle the ball and create shots in the pick and roll. Brown is not that. The recent Michigan player he's most comparable to is Glen Robinson III, who played the four for John Beilein. Brown doesn't have the explosion GRIII did but he's a hair better as a shooter. Both guys are effective after someone else has broken the defense down.

ROSTER UPSHOT

Brown nominally fills Michigan's last roster spot for 2020-21. The "nominal" bit: Rivals is reporting that Nojel Eastern might not actually enroll if he has to sit out a year and would instead go play overseas. If that's the case Michigan has another slot. Also, Isaiah Livers has put his name in the NBA draft and may elect to stay in.

As both the Eastern and Brown commitments indicate, transfers tend to come out of nowhere, and new names are entering the portal daily. Speculating on who might show up is a fool's errand. Michigan should be looking to fill a hypothetical spot with a sit-out transfer, though. They'll have at least five spots if Brown or Eastern is immediately eligible and will probably have six or seven after transfers and potential NBA attrition.

Comments

njvictor

May 19th, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^

Brown seems like a very Juwan Howard type player. Well built, physical, plays defense, good rebounder. Wake was a horrendous team this past year and theoretically Brown should be more efficient on a team that has more talent and gets him better looks. I think he'd be a better fit for this year's team with the spacing that Livers and Franz will provide, but him sitting out a year and playing in 2021 would also be a great help and veteran presence

oriental andrew

May 19th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^

Wake blog commenters say:

I wish Chaundee would come back as I think he would be a Star next year

Sure wish Brown would come back , then we might have a chance at being decent this season.

Brown and Sarr were elite recruits. The cupboard is pretty bare beyond that. And sounds like they were heading out the door either way.

Wakes current talent could have finished in the middle of the pack: just look at the programs who want Chaundee and SARR. We were more talented than our place in the standings

Come on Chaundee!!!! You are the missing piece. We need you, help us turn the corner.

Brown had all the makes of a future NBA player coming out of high school. He was so fundamentally sound. You can see that he had a great developmental program. I feel like he understands the game. He seemed like a good guy, too. I hate that he ruined his college career by coming to Wake Forest. You just did not see this guy take the step that you want to see a to high school recruit take when coming to college. He just never developed the confidence under Manning. What a sad, sad waste.

Chaundee will not enter the NBA draft- he needs to be utilized on a well coached team and raise his stock to be drafted next year. I think he just wants to experience winning and going to the NCAA Tournament- good for him!

Congratulations Chaundee and go to a winning program, if you can! Actually surprised he stayed 3 years. 

He was a top 100, 4* recruit coming out of HS. AKA another highly talented, big potential kid who never reached his potential due to Manning’s inability to develop anyone not named John Collins.

 

Brown is one of my favorite Manning era players. He has elite physical traits. That is what made him a top 30 recruit in his class. HIs shooting stroke always looked good even when it wasn’t falling consistently. He was one of the few players who played with consistent effort on both ends of the court.

Now to the tragedy. Chaundee never got to develop the skills to be an elite college or NBA shooting guard because Danny played small ball as usual. Chaundee never developed his ball handling skills, a dribble drive or pull up game, post move for smaller guards or anything of that sort. Danny would play him only as a SF and EVEN PF for long stretches of games. His offense because nothing more than catch and shoot or hustle points off rebounds. He never got to develop the skill set that he could have. I guess it doesn’t matter much now because it is too late for Wake to benefit and most likely too late for CB to reach his potential unless he forgets everything the dumbasses here taught him and start completely over.

Not sure how he compares to the talent on our roster, but seems like he was a key piece for WFU and they're in general agreement that losing him is a bad thing for them. 

And man, they really hate Danny Manning...

smitba6

May 20th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^

I'm a Wake alum and have watched more terrible Wake Forest basketball over the last few years than most. A few things that echo or add context to the previous comments and main article:

1) Chaundee Brown is a great fit for this team in that he is a stronger defender than the metrics are likely to show. Wake lacked an identity on defense (and on offense, but more on that later) and was terrible at anything that you would hope a well-coached team would be. Any success that Brown had on defense was due to his own ability. Putting him in a coherent defensive system that currently needs a physical presence should allow him to flourish.

2) Offensively, Brown is a great role player that was often forced to take on a role that asked him to do more than that. The cause for this was Wake's lack of offensive identity. Wake's offense consisted of alternating streaks of feeding Sarr in the post and passing the ball around the three point line until someone jacked up a three or took a highly contested drive to the basket. On the rare occasions that worked, Sarr and Childress had huge games while Brown showed many of the offensive traits (good and bad) outlined in the original article. I think that Juwan Howard's offense and coaching should help a lot on this end of the floor.

3) As a Wake fan, I am bummed to see him leave, which passes the Bill Simmons test of basing the success of a transaction on how the opposing team's fan base feels about it. As a Michigan fan, I'm anxious to see what he can do on a team that isn't competing for dead last in the conference.

L'Carpetron Do…

May 19th, 2020 at 5:34 PM ^

Watched some highlights and I like his ability to take it to the rack. Michigan could use some of that. If this dude and Franz can take it strong or kick it out to shooters like Livers and Brooks I think the offense will click.

Also on an important but unrelated note: it would've been great if Wake Forest great Randolph Childress named his son Brandolph instead of Brandon. 

UP to LA

May 19th, 2020 at 6:05 PM ^

Looking at the composite recruiting rankings for Chaundee's class really drives home how much talent Duke has managed to accumulate and squander over the last 5 years -- truly amazing how non-dominant they've managed to be.

Billmunson

May 20th, 2020 at 12:20 AM ^

Mich went across the free throw spectrum with the last 2 transfers. 83% for Brown is a good sign. I can see him making some key free throws in next year's tourney.