At long last, Michigan Hockey won a regular season game at Yost against Notre Dame. And then the next night, they won a second. The first home sweep of Notre Dame at Yost since the 2017-18 season, the first win of any kind in the regular season at home against Notre Dame since November 9, 2018(!!). Two huge regulation wins that have bumped Michigan Hockey's probability of making the NCAA Tournament from 34% to 65% and put them temporarily back on the right side of the bubble. A long way to go with one more week of the regular season + the conference tournament pending, but this was a step in the right direction. Let's break it all down today: 

 

A Few Thoughts From The Weekend  

A banner night for Dylan Duke. Friday night was the Dylan Duke show, as the junior scored the first goal for Michigan, a rather soft one for Ryan Bischel right off a faceoff, and then got the second later in the opening period on a masterful short-handed goal: 

Dylan Duke short-handed! pic.twitter.com/Kt74vxKGho

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 24, 2024

Those were Duke's only goals of the game– and only points of the weekend for that matter– but they were still two huge ones because they set the tone. This was a massive series for Michigan, four games left in the regular season or as I put it last week, running out of time. The Maize & Blue needed a big weekend against a team and in a building they can never, ever win in. They needed two regulation wins and while Notre Dame has fallen quite a bit from the grinding defensive team that used to choke the life out of games, they are still a team with an elite goaltender that generally has good in-zone defensive fundamentals. You want to get leads on the Irish, if for no other reason than their offensive limitations make it harder for them in particular to rally. 

Dylan Duke gave Michigan that lead and he got a decent sized one for them right away. When he put that second goal in there was still tons of hockey to be played, but again, it set the tone. Michigan was in command of that Friday game very early because of Duke and they were able to play confidently from there on out. Michigan doesn't have an underclass superstar to lean on like an Adam Fantilli last season. They need veteran players to step up when your season is on the line and Duke's first period could end up being a turning point of the season if Michigan finds a way into the tournament and we ought to commend him for that. The first goal wasn't anything special, lucky break but it was what I also wrote about last week in terms of a simplified offensive approach, putting pucks on net. Sometimes you get rewarded and sometimes, like in this case, it really matters. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: More thoughts, NCAA picture, and Minnesota]

 

[Bill Rapai]

Penalty kill: a success story. While I was criticizing Michigan's defense last week, I did slip in a small nod to the penalty kill, which I acknowledged had improved and was a good piece of evidence for solid coaching. Michigan killed five of six Notre Dame power plays last weekend, bringing the percentage up to 79.8% on the season after sitting at catastrophic levels for much of the first half. David has been complimenting the improvement of the PK over the second half and it is completely true. Michigan held PSU to 1/9 the weekend before, held MSU to 0/3 the weekend before that, and OSU went 0/7 in early February. That's 23 of the last 25 killed (92%) in the month of February. 

The one PPG Michigan did allow to Notre Dame was mostly the case of failed clears, a couple opportunities where Michigan didn't get good wood on the clearing attempt and it was held in, or it inconveniently caromed off a body and stayed in. Eventually the tired PKers wore down and Notre Dame's Danny Nelson fired a wrist shot by Jacob Barczewski. Not what you want, but I'd take that kind of PPG given up than the sort that were being given up in the first half, dangerous cross-seam passes for A++ chances. Nothing structurally looked bad on the weekend from a penalty kill stand-point and then you remember that Duke's second goal on Friday was a short-handed goal. For the weekend, Michigan finished even in goals when shorthanded, one goal for and one goal against. You'll take that every weekend and it's an asset Michigan can keep building on going forward. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Recognize situational hockey!! One complaint I do have from the weekend is this recurring theme of situational hockey. I brought this up on the HockeyCast last week when talking about this goal given up by Michigan to make it 4-3 Wolverines in the Friday game in State College. On this referenced play, Michigan is ahead two goals with just over four minutes to go in the game. Rutger McGroarty enters the offensive zone, stops up and curls back high in the zone before making a backhand flip pass to a teammate who is slashing down the slot. The pass is a little behind the intended target and picked up by a Nittany Lion, creating a rush chance the other way, a kinda-2v1 with a backchecking Wolverine. The PSU player keeps the puck and rips it by Barczewski. 

The issue I had with that play is the situation. Rutger was not doing anything crazy at face value, the curl high and flip to the slot is a play Michigan runs regularly, and they create a good bit of offense off of it. I'm not criticizing that element. The issue is the game-state. Two goal lead, just over four minutes to go, that's when the skilled, creative offensive plays that incur some degree of risk need to go in the garage and simple, smart hockey needs to step to the forefront. If I am coaching that situation, I tell Rutger entering the zone to chip the puck deep and then he and the other forward entering go roll the forecheck. Grind the game down and get it over with. You cannot give up a rush chance against when you're up two goals with that little time left in the game.  

[Bill Rapai]

Which brings me to this weekend. Michigan was leading 3-0 on Friday with 8:25 remaining when Justin Janicke was given a five minute major + a game-misconduct for a hit on Nick Moldenhauer. Michigan proceeded to use that power play with an intent to pressure to score, which had the downside of surrendering multiple short-handed rushes, including one that turned into a penalty shot. Barczewski stood tall on all, amid an excellent weekend for him, but come on man. I'm not against trying to score because a four goal lead completely finishes the game off, but ultimately the five minute PP provides an opportunity to also more or less end the game even if you don't score. Running the clock down to under 3.5 minutes left with a three-goal lead gets the game very close to ending.

The one thing you can't have happen is giving up a short-handed goal, which was why it was really frustrating to see Notre Dame come close multiple times. Again, situational hockey. I get Michigan has a dangerous PP and wants to try and score, but you have to be a bit more conservative in this situation specifically, tell the point men on the PP not to pinch as aggressively, that sort of thing. In both cases of the examples I've cited in this bullet, Michigan was doing things that normally work for them, using the center lane to make skilled, high danger passes and letting their PP attack aggressively, but not recognizing that it was not the right situation in the game-state for those things. It's not a major issue for this team, but it's something I'd like to see Naurato tighten up because neither case cost them, but I don't want to see Michigan lose a game because they can't play smart situational hockey. 

[Bill Rapai]

I'm happy for Marshall Warren. I don't have a lot to say here, just that it was cool for Warren to get to score the winning goal on Saturday night. It hasn't necessarily been the year I was hoping for from Warren when he transferred from BC, but he'll always have that moment, like Steve Holtz's against Wisconsin in the BTT last year. For Warren, a fifth year player, to get to do it on Senior Day (his second Senior Day) was really cool and something to remember him for. A good shot, stepping up in the right moment and being a hero when Michigan needed it. The tournament/Pairwise implications of winning that game in regulation, rather than overtime, was huge, so thank you Marshall. Let's watch it one more time: 

Marshall Warren puts Michigan on top 2-1! pic.twitter.com/I5TI1jUEVR

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 25, 2024

After broadcasting four different losses during this losing streak to Notre Dame at home on the radio, I will never not smile watching Michigan beat the Irish in Yost. 

 

Updated Tournament Picture 

Guess what's back, everyone? The CHN Pairwsie Probability Matrix!! Here we go: 

These are the 18 teams with a probability of getting an at-large spot greater than 1%. As has been stated in Peter's rooting guides, there are two autobid leagues now, with Atlantic Hockey occupying its usual spot and then the New CCHA having fallen a long way into irrelevancy. Minnesota State sans Mike Hastings has tumbled out of the picture and Michigan Tech is in a down year, so no matter who wins the CCHA, they will be well outside the top 16. Which means Michigan needs to get to at least 14th to get in as an at-large and hey, wouldn't you know it, that's where they currently sit. 

As the probabilities show, there are nine teams basically locked into the tournament, including three from the B1G (MSU/Wisc/Minn), plus three more from Hockey East (BU/BC/Maine). The remaining three are perennial powers Denver and NoDak out of the NCHC and reigning national champion Quinnipiac out of the ECAC. The bubble thus consists of Michigan and a number of teams Michigan faced in the non-con, starting with UMass at 10. St. Cloud and Providence occupy the spots directly in front of Michigan and then the remaining two teams in the top 15 have Michigan ties, WMU being an in-state rival and Colorado College, coached by former Michigan assistant Kris Mayotte, who has led a remarkable turnaround for the CC Tigers. It's a very familiar bubble this year! 

A Michigan/Denver re-match could be on the table in the NCAAs this year

While 14th is the lowest spot you can theoretically be and still get in, I would recommend shooting for 13th, because it wouldn't be hard for an ECAC bid stealer to happen. QPac is the only top 14 ECAC team, with Cornell lingering at 16, and then everyone else is outside of that. The ECAC semifinals will thus feature two teams well outside the picture and one of those teams would only have to win two single elimination games in the ECAC Tournament to get into the NCAAs. In fact, it happened last season when Colgate pulled a couple upsets and slipped in, just to get crushed by Michigan in Allentown. So I would say 13th is the cushion you want to aim for, since it's highly unlikely that a bid stealer emerges in any of the other three conferences, given how many power teams occupy their upper ranks. 

Looking at Michigan's probabilities, they have a ~6% chance of being a 2 seed, a 38% of being a 3 seed, and a ~21% chance of being a 4 seed. Looking at the rest of the probabilities, we know that Michigan can't play MSU/Wisconsin in the first round due to being in the same conference (two teams who are both highly likely to be 1/2 seeds) and also know that Michigan likely won't play BC/BU in the first round, since those two schools appear primed for #1 and #2 overall, which would thus draw the Atlantic Hockey and CCHA champions. That then only leaves a few teams Michigan could theoretically play in the first round, with Minnesota also excluded as a possible 2 seed.

So, you're looking at North Dakota, Denver, QPac, and Maine as the plausible first round matchups if Michigan makes it in. I don't have any major feeling on that, only that those teams would be much more disappointed about Michigan than vice versa, as the Wolverines would just be happy to be there. A 1 seed NoDak or Denver drawing Michigan would be a bit of a bummer for them, since you never want to get an underachieving 4 who is loaded with future NHL players. #1 seed Cornell had this feeling in 2018, when they were upset by #4 seed BU in the first round, featuring future NHLers Jordan Greenway, Dante Fabbro, Jake Oettinger, and Brady Tkachuk. That BU team lost to Michigan in the next round. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Weekend Preview: Minnesota

Given the picture in the above matrix, every game is important and Michigan has an opportunity to boost its resume with a strong weekend in Minnesota against the #8 Gophers. A split likely keeps Michigan where it's at, square on the bubble, just above the cutline. A sweep likely boosts Michigan (temporarily) off the bubble, while getting swept leads us right back into the danger zone and erases the goodwill of this past weekend. The games can't get any bigger at this stage. 

There are also B1G implications. Michigan has clinched home ice for the first round of the B1G Tournament, likely against Notre Dame, but could jump Minnesota to take the #3 seed, likely setting up a battle with PSU in the first round. I would prefer that outcome, since PSU is worse than Notre Dame and not dropping any games in the first round of the B1G Tournament is an objective. Michigan enters the weekend three points behind Minnesota, so if the Gophers can grab two this weekend, they will lock up the three seed. However, if Michigan gets 5 or 6, either through two regulation wins or one regulation win + one OT win, they move into 3rd. 

So who are the Gophers? For your author, this series is some degree of a learning experience. The first meeting with Minnesota came over Veteran's Day/Remembrance Day Weekend (throwing the Canadian readers a bone here), the Friday game coming while we were all furiously tracking the court happenings in Washtenaw County as Michigan was suing the B1G for a TRO, just hours after Jim Harbaugh's suspension was handed down. The Saturday game came during a college football game day, as we tracked the scores of big games. I did my best to pay attention and had the hockey games on both nights on a screen, but I am not going to pretend that I was scrutinizing them closely. 

[Bill Rapai]

Thus, this is going to be my first full-attention viewing of Michigan/Minnesota. Those first games I referenced were during Michigan's blown leads clinic, the Friday game seeing them blow a 3-1 lead to lose 4-3 in regulation, giving up an infuriating goal with one second left in the second period. The Saturday game saw them win in a shootout, only after blowing a 2-1 third period lead. There haven't been as many blown leads lately, so here's to turning over a new leaf!! 

Minnesota's team is still led by the remnants of their great teams from the past couple seasons, the biggest star being F Jimmy Snuggerud, the last man standing from the Knies-Cooley-Snuggerud line that dominated college hockey last season. Snuggerud, a St. Louis first rounder who seems poised to sign after the season, has 19 goals to lead the team and six of them on the PP, so it'll be a compelling test for Michigan's improved PK. F Rhett Pitlick is the team leader in points, an upperclassman who was a part of both Frozen Four teams, and then netminder Justen Close is still around, sporting a clean .923. They've added some younger, talented pieces like D Sam Rinzel and F Oliver Moore, but those two former first rounders aren't yet running the show for the Gophers. This is still Snuggerud's team.

Statistically there's not a ton to say about the Gophers, fine on special teams, solid offense, solid defense, nothing remarkable in terms of possession. They're a fine team with talent, but nothing incredible. Michigan has played well at Mariucci the last few seasons and in their two meetings at Yost, the Wolverines seemed plenty capable of beating Minnesota before self-sabotage set in (as it did often in the first half). A sweep is the pipe dream objective, a split is acceptable. Getting swept is not. Buckle in for another big weekend. Games Friday and Saturday night, both at 8:30 PM EST, both on BTN.