Previously: Ohio State offense 

Now that I've let the OSU offense piece simmer for a couple days, and everyone has digested the horror of it (and their Thanksgiving meals), we can move into the slightly more optimistic phase of the opposition, the Buckeye defense. Ohio State's defense began the season reeling, surrendering 500 yards and 35 points to Oregon, as well as an additional 500 yards to Tulsa the week after. At that point the Buckeyes made some key schematic changes to their defense and also promoted Matt Barnes (neither the Red Sox pitcher nor the basketball player) to take over playcalling duties for the much maligned Kerry Coombs. The result was substantial improvement, allowing 7, 13, 17, and 7 points over the following four weeks, though quality of competition is an important qualifier- they faced Akron, Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana in that stretch. 

The last four weeks have included some good and some bad. OSU allowed nearly 400 yards to a struggling Penn State offense with a half-injured Sean Clifford at QB, as well as 481 yards and 31 points to Purdue. On the flip side, they annihilated Michigan State last week, holding the Spartans to 224 yards and just 7 points. With those results in mind, let's take a look at the Buckeye defense in detail and see how vulnerable they really are, and where Michigan may be able to find exposed weakspots. 

The Film: We're going with the same combo as the offense, drawing upon both the PSU game and the MSU game, to give us a range of outcomes from the dominant to the more competitive. Just like last article, I only graded the PSU game for our pressure metric, but will use tape from both games. 

Personnel: Seth's chart, click to enlarge.

[If you are an Ohio State fan reading this, you can click HERE for a censored version of the chart]

On the defensive line, you have some stars like you expect from an Ohio State team, but not quite the same level as in past years. Considering we were used to always facing an elite, top five NFL Draft pick pass rusher every time The Game rolled around for about a six year period, the quirk of this year's meeting is that Michigan now has the two best pass rushers in this contest. That's not to say that Tyreke Smith and Zach Harrison aren't very good players. They are, and the star labels denote that. But neither are Chase Young or Bosa caliber players (or say, Aidan Hutchinson caliber). We left both solid on this chart, but there is a healthy degree of rotation at the end position, as there is across the whole defense. Backups include a pair of blue chip true freshmen in Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, who were both top five players in the 2021 recruiting class. Sawyer has seemed fine, but Tuimoloau was disappointing in your author's viewings, though both are still true freshman of course. The last name to know is the most frequent player to rotate in, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, who's been fine as a reserve. There's a pretty healthy gap between Smith/Harrison and the backups. 

The defensive tackle spot sees even more rotation, and it's rather curious how often they lift Haskell Garrett off the field, given how good he is. He's the only star at this position, one that sees a full six players get regular snaps. The other players at DT were solid, if unremarkable in the games I saw. Antwuan Jackson is the nominal other starter, but his snap count on the season is almost identical to that of Taron Vincent. Their PFF grades are both similar to that of Ty Hamilton and Jerron Cage, all of whom are mostly just guys (more on that later). Tyleik Williams is the last name to know at the DT spot, and his snap count is rather low, pretty far down the depth chart but still seeing the field each week. 

Linebacker, as it has been in the last few seasons at Ohio State, is an area of consternation. The team normally plays with just two traditional LBs on the field at one time, and there's plenty of rotation here too. Cody Simon is the listed starter at the MLB spot, but he is banged up and his status for The Game is unknown at this time. If he is absent, his presence probably will not be missed on the defense, as he's the lone cyan'd starter. It is your author's opinion that Tommy Eichenberg is the better MLB. The other spot sees Steele Chamber get the starting nod, but again you see heavy rotation with Teradja Mitchell, who was very rough in the PSU game that will be dissected for this piece. All four LBs mentioned have played more than 300 snaps and less than 400, with no one really solidifying themselves as the answer, and the position remains a weakness for the defense. 

The secondary finally sees a few consistent starters. One such example is Ronnie Hickman, who plays the new Hybrid Space Player position on the defense, named the "Bullet". Bryson Shaw is also a regular starter at the free safety position, while the "cover safety" is started by Marcus Williamson, but rotation with blitzing safety Lathan Ransom is normal. Kourt Williams II backs up Hickman at the Bullet spot, while Cameron Martinez backs up shaw at FS. The cornerback spot is anchored first by freshman Denzel Burke, with Sevyn Banks (who, yes, wears #7) and Cameron Brown rotating in opposite Burke. Ryan Watts and Lejond Cavazos get in occasionally at DB, and it's worth noting that safety Josh Proctor has been injured since early in the season. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Trying to find the Death Star's exhaust port]

Base Set: Under the OSU 4-2-5 alignment (calling the Bullet as a DB), you get a base set that looks something like the following on most plays: 

Four down linemen, two traditional linebackers, and then five DBs out there to deal with 11 personnel from Penn State. In this instance the Bullet is one of the two deep safeties, next to Shaw the free safety. The "cover safety" (in this case, Lathan Ransom) is lined up like a corner in the slot and then you have Cameron Brown and Denzel Burke as your standard corners flanking the sideline on opposite sides of the formation. The Bullet may be lined up in different places depending on a given play, but this package of players and their 4-2-5 alignment is rather consistent for the OSU defense. 

In some cases, they did trot out a 3-2-6 look to counter PSU going with 5 wide: 

I doubt Michigan is going to go with five wide all that much, but it is another look that you could possibly see. Where the linebackers line up pre-play also varies depending on whether OSU wants to show blitz or not, but overall, it is the case that four linemen, two linebackers, four traditional DBs + the Bullet are standard on the vast majority of downs for Ohio State.

Man or zone coverage: The biggest schematic change that Ohio State made in response to getting shredded by Oregon and Tulsa when Matt Barnes took over as DC was to move from a base single high safety defense (Cover 1 (man) or Cover 3) to a  base two high safety defense (primarily Cover 2). The nearly overnight shift was a striking departure that was well noted in the OSU blogosphere at the time and you can read more about it if you want. By the time they played PSU and then MSU, the Buckeyes were fully adjusted to this new defensive look, and were mostly in Cover 2 in the tape I watched, which fits them squarely into zone. There were instances that the single high came out of the garage, generally in the form of Cover 1 (but also Cov3 sometimes), but this is definitely a zone defense now, occasional flashes of man notwithstanding. 

Pressure: Ohio State brought more than four rushers on 34% of the plays that I tracked in the Penn State game. That registers as significantly less than uber-blitzy Maryland last week and moderately less than Penn State did in this same game against OSU. A big reason for that may be that against a team like PSU, whose offensive tackles are dreadful, OSU was able to regularly generate pressure with only a four man rush given the talent of Smith and Harrison. It doesn't take a Joey Bosa type to get pressure on PSU, and thus OSU didn't need to blitz as much. They rushed less than four on 16.5% of plays, a number skewed a bit by the Nittany Lions' final drive, where OSU was in prevent defense rushing three each play. Generally OSU rushed four in this one but there's reason to wonder if that could be different against a team with ostensibly better tackles like Michigan. 

Dangerman: I'm going to go with DT Haskell Garrett for this for a couple reasons. First of all, he's the only high-impact interior lineman that the Buckeyes have, compared to them possessing two plus edge rushers. Secondly, I chose Garrett because we are able to learn slightly more about him from watching this game than we are able to learn about Smith and Harrison, who were facing OTs who can't pass protect to save their lives. Garrett's one of the old men of this defense, a 5th year player who is so old that he was a rotational piece on the 2018 OSU defense, meaning that he's faced the likes of Mike Onwenu and Ben Bredeson in this rivalry. One final introductory note about Garrett: he is one of the few Ohio State players that it is hard to hate because of his inspirational story, having been shot in the face in August 2020, but he returned to play just a few months later and was named an AP All-American. You don't hear that one everyday. 

When pass rushing wins came from a DT in the games I watched, it was generally coming from Haskell Garrett. Sometimes it came from being explosive, other times it came from being crafty, like this little spin move: 

DT #92 second from the top of the OL

He also plays a role in the ground game, nearly always holding his ground, even if some of the other rotational DTs were susceptible to being cleared out. This clip showcases that, with Garrett holding firm to limit this to a short gain, even as Jerron Cage is blown away: 

DT #92 second from bottom of the line

Garrett was also stellar in the MSU game that I watched (but did not track), helping to blow up the Spartans' first play from scrimmage by running right past JD Duplain into the backfield: 

DT #92 second from the bottom of the line 

Garrett's a very good player, and is one of the X-Factors in this game. Michigan may be able to afford to double one, if not both ends, if they feel like they can handle the interior rushers (also known as Ohio State's strategy towards Michigan in 2018). But if they have to respect the interior rush, then that will give Harrison and Smith more opportunities against single blocks. The guy most likely to prove trouble from the interior rush spot is Garrett. Additionally, we know Michigan is going to want to run the ball, and Garrett will play a role in trying to stop that as well. He's a major piece of this defense, and this week's Dangerman. 

 

Overview 

So how do we feel about the Ohio State defense overall? After probing both games, I think there are some broad conclusions to make overall, and I'll walk through them as we go. The first is that the defensive line is the strength of the defense. This shouldn't be shocking, considering the NFL talent that has flowed through the Ohio State DL room in the last decade. Their ability to regularly get pressure against MSU and PSU was the trump card that the defense was most regularly able to whip out in the games that I watched. That was partially a function of the teams they played (neither MSU nor PSU are particularly great at pass protecting against edge rushers), but it's also hard to deny that the Buckeyes have serious talent at those edge spots. 

Tyreke Smith is a guy, like Garrett, who has also been around a while. He was on the two deep with Garrett back for the 2018 game, and has since blossomed into a very good edge rusher himself. I thought he outplayed Harrison in the Penn State game, and there are a collection of very positive clips. Here he is with a clean win to create the pressure to force Clifford's ugly interception in that game: 

DE #11 at bottom of defensive line

On a crucial fourth down play, it was again the rushing efforts of Tyreke Smith that provided the initial pressure.

DE #11 at bottom of the line

Some of his pressure did feel like a quality of competition gap between himself and Rasheed Walker or Caeden Wallace. In this instance, Wallace straight up whiffs on Smith: 

DE #11 to top of the DL

Smith showed out in run defense too, shuffling off the edge and surging into the backfield for a stop:

DE #11 to top of the line 

Once-fabled Michigan (allegedly) silent commit DE Zach Harrison had the better game against Michigan State I thought, or at least the more noticeable one. He and Smith continued to provide consistent pressure, such as this play here: 

DE #9 to bottom of the line

You can weave the highlights of Harrison and Smith with Garrett. Blending an edge rusher with Garrett on a stunt had success against MSU, including this instance where it's Harrison and Garrett: 

DE #9 and DT #92 to bottom of the line

The two edge rushers needed to be providing pass rush, though, because I had some questions about the coverage from Ohio State, particularly in the PSU game, as well as questions about the defensive tackles not named Garrett. PSU was able to move out DT Ty Hamilton on consecutive plays early in the ballgame, with this latter one seeing him hit with a double to pave the way for five yards: 

DT #58 second from top of the line

Jerron Cage was similarly up-and-down versus Penn State, but he provided a much stronger effort against Michigan State, showing good burst in this clip to push his blocker back into the backfield: 

DT #86 second from bottom of the line

All of this about the defensive tackles is to say that I mostly think that the non-Garrett DTs are just guys. Think, Carlo Kemp types. Not liabilities to be cyan'd, but you could double them and get some yardage. And when they provide pass rush, it's normally because of help from one of the ends in a stunt. Michigan might be able to find some success running on the interior when Garrett isn't on the field. 

The linebackers were an adventure in pass coverage. What I saw from them in run defense was pretty solid, especially Tommy Eichenberg, who I liked in the MSU game for his ability to fit into gaps, something present on the clip I just showed you: 

LB #35

The LB coverage was problematic, and something that feels exploitable. Some of it was matchup dependent. Here PSU was able to isolate RB Keyvone Lee on LB Teradja Mitchell, a very tough spot for a linebacker to be in: 

LB #3

Sign me up for that, except it's Donovan Edwards on Mitchell. But a lot of the time, it was not matchup-specific, but just general coverage lapses. This next clip sees Mitchell and S Marcus Williamson initially bite on the run, allowing Clifford to hit the TE for a chunk gain: 

When LBs were being asked to drop into zone coverage, it did not go particularly well, regularly losing PSU receivers over the middle. Mitchell and S Bryson Shaw leave K'Andre Lambert-Smith open on this crucial 3rd down conversion: 

It seemed as if some of the screws in coverage had been tightened by the time MSU came to town, but Thorne was able to connect with his TEs a decent amount, perhaps the only thing MSU could do right on offense in that first half. And guess who was supposed to be in the zone of those tight ends? The linebackers: 

This next play is pretty emblematic of that, and also frustrating. Thorne opts to go to a covered receiver and ignores the TE wide open down the seam that the LB Eichenberg misses in coverage: 

MSU TE #97 is wiiiiiiiide open

To OSU's credit, I thought the corners were solid. I really liked the coverage from Denzel Burke in this game, whose good ball skills in coverage we saw earlier in a Harrison highlight that I'll drop in again: 

Cameron Brown had a decent game in both too, but there were still open receivers for Clifford to throw to. Those dissipated a bit for MSU, but it's worth noting that there is a gap in the quality of receiver that Penn State features and Michigan State features considering that the Spartans are without Nailor and Reed appears banged up. The zone was pretty soft at times against the Nittany Lions and plays like these weren't uncommon:

More often, Clifford was able to rack up passing yardage with good throws right before getting murdered by an edge rusher (sound familiar?). Here's one such example: 

Cade McNamara should get substantially better pass protection than Clifford (if he doesn't, Michigan is in trouble), but the heat will come eventually, and if he's willing to stand in there and take a shot (as he did against MSU and PSU), there could very well be open receivers over the middle. 

We know that McNamara is quite good at the pre-snap reads, and you have to imagine that the most prominent read that coaches are drilling in his head to make is to be aware at all times whether the DB blitz is coming, because OSU really likes it. In this clip it's Cover Safety Lathan Ransom (who's particularly blitz-oriented) who comes off the edge, and PSU does a decent job of picking it up with the RB: 

DB #12 blitzing, beginning at the O logo

Again, you see the open holes in the zone defense for Jahan Dotson right there once the Ransom blitz is picked up. This is not a defense that you're going to go for a huge big hitter play against most likely, but the underneath pass targeting the LBs could very well be open on most plays, if Michigan has time to execute it, and if McNamara has the poise and accuracy to make the necessary throws. Recognizing the blitzes before they come is a key responsibility that Cade will have tomorrow. 

The other area of weakness that I also felt that both MSU and PSU were able to exploit were WR screens targeting the corners, who didn't seem particularly adept at getting off their blocks quickly or tackling. In this example you have one defender (actually an LB, Mitchell) get cleared out easily, and then CB Sevyn Banks is engaged in a block tightly, meaning that Tyreke Smith has to run from the edge spot to track down a speedy receiver on the perimeter: 

The result is a predictably sizable chunk gain. On that play in particular you have three WRs lined up against two DBs pre-snap, one of whom is a linebacker. If Michigan sees that tomorrow, they need to immediately call a screen to that size and pick up the yardage OSU is giving you. Penn State was able to so consistently get 5-10 yards on those WR screens that it essentially became their run game, because the Nittany Lions were unable to move the ball on the ground (mostly the result of their disastrous OL). Michigan State had next to no success running RB slip screens; Smith and Harrison read those like a book and blew them up with ease. But they were able to nab a few decent gains by running similar screens to the perimeter, where again OSU's corners were blocked with little resistance: 

I felt the corners were generally good at covering in my viewings, but not as good at getting off blocks or tackling. Michigan NEEDS to target that vulnerability. 

 

How to beat Ohio State's defense

OSU's defense is the biggest difference between The Game this year and The Game in 2019, the last time Michigan saw the Buckeyes. The offenses are nearly identical, albeit possibly even better this year (*gulp*), but there's a wide disparity in the defensive quality, which is why OSU has actually been in several competitive games in the last month this year, as opposed to 0 the entire regular season in 2019. That 2019 team is one of the best college football teams of the past decade, probably ever, a team that ran into virtually no resistance until Clemson in the CFP, a game famously impacted by refereeing ~controversy~ (wonder what that's like). This 2021 Buckeyes squad is excellent, but they are not 2019 good, and that's mostly the result of the defensive drop-off. Take a look at these SP+ numbers: 

• 2019: 35.4 overall, 44.4 offense (4), 10.6 defense (2) 
• 2021: 32.3 overall, 47.2 offense (1), 17.9 defense (14)

This team does not have a Chase Young pass rusher, nor does it have a Jeff Okudah-level cover corner. They are a good defense, and one that has improved significantly from the start of the season, but they did allow 5.6 and 6.8 yards per play to opponents in the preceding two weeks prior to MSU. You can move the ball on these guys if you execute and come out with a good game plan. In re-watching the highlights of The Game 2019 this week, I was reminded at how savvy of a game plan Harbaugh and Gattis drew up for that one offensively, including the brilliant end-around TD to Giles Jackson that got the scoring started. Michigan managed to put up 5.7 yards per play on that elite OSU defense in 2019, thanks in part to a very good game plan. It just wasn't enough to win that game because of *glances at defense*, but if Michigan comes out tomorrow with a similarly-good game plan on offense, I think scoring >30 points is quite possible, which is likely what is required to win. 

Such a game plan requires targeting the weaknesses outlined. If Erick All is fully healthy, running him into the zone of any of the OSU LBs seems like an easy mismatch. We've already seen Michigan utilize that TE leak play several times this season for key third down conversions. Feels like that's a go-to here. Moreover, just one week after The Donovan Edwards Game, getting either Edwards or Corum (if healthy) matched up onto linebackers seems like another possible winner. Or you, know, if OSU somehow gets in a situation where an edge defender is having to cover a RB. I think Michigan will be able to run it in this one, but I feel like that probably has to come later in the game, once they've established the pass. Ohio State wants Michigan to play their game and the book has been out on Michigan wanting to run it all season. Prove you can pass to get a couple conversions, then let Haskins/Corum go to work. 

The big matchup on this side of the ball is not unlike the other side of the ball, just now looking in the mirror. We said that Michigan's Ojabo/Hutchinson getting pass rush on Stroud is the big trump card that Michigan's defense can play. The same is true the other way around. OSU's best success in the two games I watched came when they were able to generate pressure off the strength of Harrison and Smith. The strength of their team is along the defensive line and if the pressure doesn't get home, there are some holes in the zone to be exposed.

As Michigan fans reading this know, this is a strength-on-strength matchup. The Wolverines have been tremendous at keeping the pocket clean this season, allowing just nine sacks in eleven games, in the top five in the NCAA. McNamara doesn't take many sacks and the OL doesn't give many up. Pressure will come, though, but we've seen McNamara handle it well this season. It is a big opportunity to start the Ryan Hayes Redemption Arc, and if he can handle Harrison/Smith far better than he did Arnold Ebiketie, that would be optimal (Ebiketie grades out as a better pass rusher than either OSU ends in PFF's data). If Michigan can keep Cade mostly clean, and Cade is able to handle the rush when it comes like he did in previous big games this season, then there's an opportunity for this offense to move the football, particularly through the air. 

Spreading it out to the receivers through screens is another way to alleviate any issues that the pressure may or may not be causing. Michigan is better suited to do this than they were two years ago, as you've now got a litany of options to try this with, be it Roman Wilson or AJ Henning. Lining up in Trips formations with Cornelius Johnson, Mike Sainristil, and Wilson, and then having the former two block for the latter seems like it could be a win based on what's on tape from Ohio State. Lastly, Michigan needs to pull out all the stops on offense too. Any potential trick plays (maybe another flea ficker?) should be saved for this game and this moment to help throw OSU off and disrupt the rhythm. Just, maybe not the HaskinsCat this time. 

 

Concluding thoughts on The Game 

I've now written over 9,000 words previewing Ohio State between this piece up to this point and the previous FFFF earlier in the week. I've thrown a lot at you in both words and clips, and now let me do my best to sum it all up, and if nothing else, help Brian write some of the preview for him: 

To win this game, Michigan needs to do two things, one on offense and one on defense. They need to first put together long drives that move the ball with consistency while keeping the clock rolling and make sure those drives end in touchdowns. Shortening the game and limiting possessions is the #1 tool that not-as-good teams use to beat better teams, and especially when going up against a supernova offense like Ohio State, Michigan has to limit the number of possessions in the contest. And obviously, scoring TDs is key when you're going up against this offense. Not gonna beat the Buckeyes with field goals. On the other side of the ball, as we talked about on Wednesday, keeping OSU in the yard is the main objective. Give up a lot of yards, but get off the field in the red zone, force a turnover or two, and make sure those 500 yards only translate to ~30 points. Do those two things, and there's a window here for Michigan to win 34-31 or something. 

I feel okay about the offense's ability to do their end. Not as great about the defense's. The offense doesn't seem to be a terrible matchup with OSU's defense, because it is strength-on-strength. OSU wants to force pressure, and Michigan's OL has been quite adept at preventing it this season. Michigan wants to put together long drives, and OSU's defense is susceptible to the 8-yard completion over the middle. In 2018, you wanted to swing for the big play against Ohio State, when that defense was hemorrhaging explosive plays to teams like Maryland and Purdue. This year, since they've switched to two safeties high, you want the opposite. Michigan's QB has been pretty accurate at hitting those short passes this season, and they've got an entire desk drawer of weapons to exploit that part of the field. Michigan wants to stitch together long possessions, and the Wolverines also possess one of the best rushing attacks in the country. I don't hate this matchup. 

But defensively, yeah. The glimmer of hope is also a matchup thing: the way to throw Stroud off is to get pressure and Michigan conveniently has two NFL first round defensive ends. But it's hard not to think that young and inexperienced LBs like Junior Colson and Nikhai Hill-Green will be in for a tough ride, not to mention the fact you also have young and inexperienced safeties like RJ Moten and Rod Moore out there. The Wolverines will need their young but talented pieces to play beyond their years, and also for the defensive tackles to play their best game of the season to bottle up the rushing attack. Michigan needs their defense to reach a level that has eluded them in recent weeks. They also may need a little bit of luck, something that has been Michigan's version of Gatsby's green light in this rivalry the past 15 years, as Michigan has lost the turnover battle against OSU in all five of Harbaugh's previous meetings with the Buckeyes.  

The reality is that we are Michigan fans. And because we are Michigan fans and because we've seen the way this rivalry has gone over that aforementioned span, we expect the worst. We expect it to be either a deflating blowout, or a game that sees Michigan have the ball late, down one score, before Cade McNamara throws another pass directly into the back of Andrew Vastardis' head that is then picked off by Zach Harrison and returned for a touchdown because of course. Snakebitten doesn't begin to describe Brady Hoke Doesn't Change the Playcall After a Timeout, The Spot, John O'Korn Tries to Play the Hero But Can't, Don Brown Has Never Heard of Mesh, and JK Dobbins Fumbles Right to Himself In Stride For A 40-Yard Gain. We've seen it all, and we expect the worst against Ohio State. In part because we feel cursed, and in part because they are undoubtedly the better football team. 

But better football teams lose to worse football teams all the time. It probably happened to Michigan against Michigan State in late October, and it certainly happened to Ohio State against Oregon in September. Various Stats Gurus give Michigan anywhere from a ~35-40% chance (FPI/SP+) to a 25% chance (CFB Graphs) in this game. That's not insignificant, and 30% events happen often in real life. In his prime, Miguel Cabrera had about a 30% chance of getting a hit every time he stepped to the plate, something that felt like it happened all the time. Michigan need not be the better team this season, or the better program in the abstract to win, they simply need to score more points than Ohio State on one given Saturday, no matter how that may occur.

Ohio State is the favorite. They will probably win this game. But the possibility that they don't is real, and seems pretty obvious to anyone who doesn't devote at least a tiny portion of their self-worth and well-being to the outcome of The Game. There's a path here for Michigan to win, and it's up to us to believe in it should we so choose. The least we can do is hope. 

Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies. 

Beat Ohio.