Resources: My charting, MSU game notes, MSU roster, CFBstats, Last year

Offensive coordinator Jay Johnson has his work cut out for him, because the MSU offense I watched against Rutgers was atrocious. Linemen stopped blocking in the middle of plays. Receivers and tight ends waved at linebackers as they went by. Running backs and guards had no idea how to run the plays they're running. The center...yeesh.

This team is going through a coaching transition, is breaking in a new starter at every skill position where experience matters, lost at least two weeks of summer workouts to a COVID breakout, and wasn't very good to begin with. Also Rutgers has some disruptive DTs, at least one of whom you're familiar with. Even so I don't think even we were expecting them to be this bad. Rutgers is, and was still very Rutgers.

The film: There's only one game but fortunately it's against first place-Rutgers, who's currently tied with Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana at the top of the Big Ten East.

Personnel: My diagram:

PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)

A few diagram updates for this year:

• Solid colors are now any player who has this role locked down, IE white is a sign of some depth chart fluidity. A spot where there's an injury will be a white circle unless we think the injured has been Wally Pipped. Sometimes if there's a solid rotation we'll list a "starter" on the bench (like Brandon Watson 2018 or Mo Hurst 2016).
• Bold names are now for anyone I consider a "veteran" and not solely a starting designation. For example WR Jaylen Reed sat out last year as a transfer from WMU, but he started a full year and returned kicks in Kalamazoo before it.

[After THE JUMP: the players, the analysis, the tape, the good, and the so so so bad.]

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There are two types of players Dantonio left for his predecessor on offense: barely ranked new skill position starters, and bad returning starters on the offensive line. After their star-studded 2016 class fell apart, Dantonio's staff made a concerted effort to not recruit players that other schools desired. Everybody has chip, but the only blue one, OL Devontae Dobbs, was among those not dressed, along with longtime starting OT turnstile Luke Campbell and bench G Mustapha Khaleefah who was getting some spring buzz.

That's no different than last year, so everybody who's starting has already done plenty of it. Still filling in for the promise of a Dobbs one day is LT #75 AJ Arcuri (+1/-3 –2 pass pro in this game), who never quite hit 300—when you're 300 on the roster you're never 300—and gets pushed around by guys in the 240s. The LG filler is currently #59 Blake Bueter (+1/-10, –1 pass pro) whose 247 composite ranking was "I didn't know they go that high."

Recruiting rankings don't mean everything but "2-star in a world that doesn't give out 2-stars" is a fair description of the finished product. They rotate Bueter with #67 JD Duplain (+4.5/-2) but when Duplain's in they either run or get the ball in the air in under 1.5 seconds, which is about how long it took various Rutgers defenders to put Duplain in Lombardi's lap. RG #56 Matt Carrick (+4.5/-9.5, –3.5 pass pro) and RT #75 Kevin Jarvis (+4/-5.5, –9.5 pass pro) were the guys they tried to run behind most. As the scores suggest, Carrick's pass protection is so bad they sometimes just have him chip; Jarvis is so stiff and slow it often looks like he's not even trying. C #64 Matt Allen (+4/-14, –4 pass pro) probably isn't trying to get his coaches fired, but if he was there wouldn't be much different about his game. His few positives could also have been interpreted as failed attempts to draw a holding flag.

Here we must pause and remember MSU offensive lines of FFFFs past. This is last year's:

And 2018:

And 2017:

And the year they went 3-9 (and Notre Dame was 4-8):

Surprisingly, C #59 Nick Samac, the true freshman who passed Allen last year, only played on special teams last week, one of many questionable coaching decisions.

Speaking of coaching, the MSU RBs are evidence against the theory that running backs don't require it. There were zero opportunities in this game for last year's star/now apparent third-teamer RB #24 Elijah Collins (+1/-1, –2). "Poor Damn" Collins had 4.45 YPC and 222 carries behind this line in 2019. The next back, Anthony Williams had 38 carries at 3.11; he entered the portal, returned, and didn't see the field last weekend. RB2 #11 Connor Heyward was also in the transfer portal a year ago, and had but 24 carries for 3.29 YPC. so you'd think PDC would be the guy. He finished this game with just 9 carries for 3 yards—0.33 YPC—compared to 2.57 for Heyward and 3.07 for speedy freshman #22 Jordan Simmons (+1/-6, –2 pass pro). Simmons did manage to scoot past one tackler; he also kept trying to run outside kickout blocks, fumbled, and made sense only in the context of a gameplan that wanted to get the hell away from their (sabotaged?) interior blocking as fast as possible. Another possible explanation: PDC had a few adventures in pass protection. If he too is eyeing the portal I'd understand.

Outside, I love the transfer from WMU, WR #5 Jaylen Reed, but not the others. WR #17 Tre Mosley had one great great catch in coverage before going out with a leg injury; he's questionable this week. If he can't go his side becomes true freshman WR #7 Ricky White, who's the Makari Paige of this offense, IE he shouldn't be out there yet. Last is WR #8 Jalen Nailor, who slipped one Rutgers safety for a touchdown, and might have caused two picks by running the wrong option on his option routes. They're all about Ronnie Bell-sized and take turns in the slot.

Top-250 (literally: #250) TE #88 Trenton Gillison got the start and was a mostly unused blocker. The majority of snaps went to TE #89 Matt Dotson (+2/-4, –1 pass pro), a jumbo receiver they mostly flex out and use for screens and pick routes, but who's shown some hoover hands. They like to pair Dotson with Reed, then probe the outer rim of Big Ten officials' galactic tolerance for OPI. When they need to go heavy they add TE/FB #44 Adam Berghorst, a 6'7"/260 OL prospect who burned his redshirt last year. He got movement a few times on inserts but turning is outside of his capacity. I must note here that my appreciation of fullbacks does not extend to tackles who refuse to eat their PB&Js.

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Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread with a remnant of under center. Their base formation is four-wide out of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1TE, 3WR).

Note: I chart clock downs as passing downs.

Formation						Personnel		Playcall
Down Type	Gun	Pistol	Ace	Goal		Avg WRs		Pass	PA	RPO	Run
Standard (43)	51%	33%	16%	-		2.86		28%	9%	12%	51%
Passing (44)	89%	11%	-	-		3.02		75%	5%	5%	16%
Total (87)	61	19	7	-		2.94		45	6	7	29

Yes, that is a high rate of passing downs. Jay seems highly predictable. While their personnel is almost always 11, they will often flex the tight end into a four-wide look. Out of the 28 snaps they did that, it was a pass 24 times, versus one play-action and three RPOs. Usually a pretty quick pass actually. They want the ball away from the backfield as quickly as possible.

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? They pull guys plenty but it's in the service of getting outside. They run best inside with different versions of Iso, and use folds (where one lineman pulls around the guy next to him) often. This rewarded the Rutgers DTs for flying upfield on the snap, which is their favorite thing to do.

Hurry it up or grind it out? MSU broke out tempo five times in this game, and that led to the majority of their RPS wins, as well as this fantastic work by the BTN video crew:

The tempo is so effective because they're not that quick to the line otherwise. Don't get lulled.

Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): They do have a few QB runs and options in the offense because it's 2020 and even Chad Henne is running zone reads, but Lombardi keepers are definitely Henne-like.

"Henne-like" is a 2.

HenneChart: Keep in mind that 45/57 of the passing plays I charted here were straight-up passes on passing downs or during comeback hour, and he had to get the ball out quickly. Most of his completions were quick outs on pick plays and the like.

Rocky Lombardi	Good				Neutral			Bad					DSR
Opponent	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR
Rutgers	6	19(6)+	2		4	4		-	2	4xx	4xx		77%

Lombardi vastly surpassed my (admittedly low) expectations. On the super-rare occasions he got a couple of seconds to stand in a pocket and a plausible reason to throw to a functional receiver, he did something that looked really hard to defend:

Lombardi's pocket presence also bailed his line out of a few sacks that you see a lot of college quarterbacks take, and he was good at getting the ball out on schedule.

Where he broke down was in the Air Raid stuff that his new coaches seemed to be trying to drill into him. Both picks and an INx this game were on a couple of "not on the same page as the receiver" throws on the sideline when Jalen Nailor was running downfield. Those are sight reads where the receiver and the quarterback are supposed to be watching what kind of leverage the cornerback's playing with, and either taking him deep or cutting off the route depending on his disposition.

This one I put on Lombardi; there's a Cover 2 cornerback reading his eyes and standing "open" which means he can break on a ball to the sideline but will have to turn all the way to get over the top. It's also 3rd and 13 and the stop option is at 13 yards.

There was another of these where the ball sailed out the sideline at least 20 feet from the WR or CB. In that case I blamed the WR.

Frames Janklin Factor: If you're an oddball, it's better to embrace what makes you different than try to replicate what makes others successful. Tucker chose to go for it on 4th and 3 from the Rutgers 44 when down 14-0 in the 1st quarter, and tried again on 4th and 2 from the Rutgers 20 when down 28-20 in the 3rd Q. Both were stuffed without any doubt. That's a pretty good metaphor for the Mel Tucker era at MSU: they do the surface things that Michigan got wrong for ever—pay their coaches a lot of money, recruit on the same terms that their rivals do, and go for it on 4th and 3 or less in their opponents' territory. But because they're Michigan State the only coaches they can give the money to are their old staffers, talking to recruits about NLI and branding just begs the comparison with the bigger brands they recruit against, and no way in East Lansing is this offensive line getting you 3 yards.

Dangerman: Figures it's the one guy who went to Western Michigan. Jaylen Reed is a slot receiver who's just tall enough to get listed at 6'0" and who can jump high enough to be as much of a weapon as someone who actually clears it. He had 11 catches on 14 targets for 128 yards and 2 touchdowns in this game, despite being covered most of the day by a cornerback (Tre Avery) we've called decent in this space before. He also had two of their fumbles, a bad drop, and a tendency to jump upfield for a ball to create space for YAC when the circumstances just want the chains moved. You can also argue he's right to push things:

Michigan would do well to know where he is at all times. Optimally the answer will be in a highly unsocial distance from Dax Hill.

MSU will still find ways to use Reed. He's dangerous on kickoffs and made the receiver group's only effective downfield block (which got called for a horseshit blindside hit). This will be another early test for the new-look secondary.

OVERVIEW:

It's weird to say this after we made so much fun of the deck chairs rearrangements, but I think Michigan State took a significant coaching hit on this side of the ball. Last year's OC under Dantonio was Brad Salem, the guy many in Spartandom thought should have been calling the plays for years before his number came up just before the end of the show. Salem had them throwing fades to Cody White, leaning on Lewerke's legs, and borrowing CB Julian Barnett, their other Belleville blue-chip, to create just enough space for Elijah Collins to do the rest.

One game into a COVID season, Jay Johnson has a half-way decent West Coast quarterback blowing drives with Air Raid reads he doesn't know how to make, throwing quickly to speedy receivers who don't know how to run routes let alone vamp them, and leaning on an offensive line and backfield that have neither the practice, agility, or will to run the new plays. Jay also played into Rutgers's strengths by trying to pull around DTs who were shooting upfield, and packing his receivers in trips formations to the boundary side which mitigated their safety issues. Yes he correctly avoided putting too much on his offensive line in the passing game. It's game one of a weird season, MSU got even less opportunity than most because of COVID outbreaks, they've already got a standard late-October's disabled list, and there's not much talent to work with. You feel a "but" coming here; I don't have one yet. It's a new staff and they deserve time to turn things around.

One thing they definitely kept around from the previous regime is the cheap shit. Matt Allen may be vastly less talented than his brothers but he's just as grabby. Also there will be pick routes.

Rutgers responded to this by going to a soft Cover 2 shell.

Yes this is a touchdown but Rutgers's #7 is that guy who almost singlehandedly cost Ohio State a game against Maryland a few years and 25 pounds ago. Also Jaylen Reed can football.

The running game is an utter disaster. You've seen Michigan run pin & pull enough the last two years that you're familiar with how it works. Here's how it doesn't work:

I also got frustrated on behalf of Poor Damn Elijah Collins. The broadcasters can be expected to play up a freshman running back who takes the yards provided when Rutgers does Rutgers things:

I would expect, however, that the coaches wouldn't fall for it. Jordon Simmons ruining a well-blocked Pin & Pull by trying to go around the kickout block is a freshman teaching moment if done late in a blowout against Rutgers.

When it's done while down two scores to Rutgers while last year's MVP is on the bench, you have to wonder what the coaches are thinking. As Matt Millen says, there's only two ways to do it. You've got a stud out there who can do it, or you have to scheme it. If you start having to rely on scheme that gets old.

When your scheme is also terrible, well buddy.