A lot has changed with the Indiana offense since the last time we saw the Hoosiers in November 2021. Their QB at the time is now a WR. Their RB room is completely different. Longtime TE and WR stars have moved on. The OL has sustained a major injury. And there's a new OC to top it all off! Many elements are different, but the overall performance sadly isn't radically better. 

 

The Film: I went with Indiana's week one game against Illinois because the Fighting Illini are the best defense the Hoosiers have played and the most comparable in quality to the Wolverines. Other options were Idaho (no), WKU (no), Nebraska, and Cincinnati. The Huskers were not fitting due to their defense being a travesty, so it came down to Cincy and Illinois. Those two teams have similar defenses, though Illinois is slightly more similar to Michigan in SP+ rating. That was a primary factor in my decision, although I also was somewhat selfish- Indiana ran 104 plays against Cincy and I didn't want to expose myself to that. ~80 plays against Illinois sounded much more appetizing. 

Personnel: Click the chart for big or here for PDF. 

Indiana got Connor Bazelak from Missouri out of the portal to be the new QB. He was Missouri's starter in 2020, earning SEC Co-Freshman of the Year honors, and then reprised that role last season, finishing with a modest 16 TD to 11 INT and 2,548 yards passing. He entered the portal and came to a Hoosiers team that lost Michael Penix Jr. to the portal and was starting a true freshman by the end of last season. Desperate for competency, Bazelak is approaching that level of play for IU. 

The transition from Grant Heard to Walt Bell at OC meant that a reshuffling of the RB room was in order. The new RBs needed to be small and speedy receiving backs, "nuclear rodents" as Seth called them in HTTV. Shaun Shivers was snagged out of the portal from Auburn and Josh Henderson from UNC. Neither guy gets many carries, because Indiana is a pass-heavy offense that struggles mightily to run the football, but both play significant roles in this screen-and-checkdown passing game. 

The TE room saw the departure of longtime starter Peyton Hendershott in the offseason, who I was surprised to learn is on an NFL roster (Dallas Cowboys). The replacement is AJ Barner, a 3* from the class of 2020 who spent two seasons shadowing Hendershott. Indiana plays the majority of its snaps in 11 personnel and Barner gets damn near all of those snaps. His backups, James Bomba and Aaron Steinfeldt, come on in the rare moments that the Hoosiers play in 12 personnel or to spell Barner. Those two have combined for 82 offensive snaps compared to 371 for Barner this season. So yeah, only one name worth focusing on here. 

If you enjoyed watching an injury-riddled Indiana offense last November, the WR room is trying to ensure that you'll get to see more of that this season against Michigan. DJ Matthews Jr., a one-time FSU transfer, missed a chunk of last season with injury and is back dealing with health problems again. He had a great showing against Illinois in the game I watched but came down with an injury against Cincinnati, missing last week against Nebraska. He is questionable for Saturday, but gets the star anyway. Cam Camper is the focal point of Indiana's screen and short passing attack, but he too is questionable after contracting a non-COVID illness. Both players are starters if healthy and are designated as such on the diagram. 

Usage of the other receivers is more muddled. The clear #3 in receptions is UNC transfer Emery Simmons, who saw his workload skyrocket against Nebraska with Matthews and Camper out. Tennessee transfer Andison Coby also was heavily used against Nebraska, five catches on eight targets, while Javon Swinton sits further down on the depth chart, the rare non-transfer receiver. Rounding out this group is last year's QB, Donaven McCulley, who hasn't been used much, as well as Malachi Holt-Bennett, only boasting two catches on the season. The production and look of the WR group changes greatly depending on if Matthews and Camper are healthy. 

IU's offensive line rolls over three starters from last season, a number that would've been four if Matt Bedford were still healthy. Alas, the RT tore his ACL in week one and has been deemed out for the season. That unfortunate development has led to the promotion of Parker Hanna to the RT role, something that is not good news for the Indiana offense. Hanna has been brutal in pass protection this season. Luke Haggard returns to man the LT role opposite Hanna, one of the better players on this line but still leaky from time to time. The interior of the line saw both Old Friend Zach Carpenter and Mike Katic return as starters, neither of whom are having great seasons. Carpenter was roughed up in the game I saw but I chose to go a little easier on him and give the cyan to Katic, who was brutalized by the Illini defense. Funny enough, PFF's worst graded IOL among the starters is Tim Weaver, which speaks to the problems that Indiana is having in pass protection and opening holes in the running game. 

Indiana does rotate a few offensive linemen through. Kahlil Benson comes on to spell one of the guards from time to time, while Joshua Sales Jr. is the primary reserve at tackle. Carpenter missed the Cincinnati game with an injury and was replaced at center by Caleb Murphy, though Carpenter's return against Nebraska pushed Murphy back firmly to the bench. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: You like screens?]

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Spread, pro-style, or hybrid: Indiana runs a fully spread offense that has no old-fashioned pro style elements. Chart: 

Formation	Run	PA	Pass	Total
Shotgun	25	10	46	100%
Under Center	-	-	-	0%

Yup. Indiana always plays out of the shotgun, plays with a rather brisk pace (see a couple sections below), and loves to spread its players out. As you'll see in the Base Set section, they roll with five skill position players lined up as wide receivers a good chunk of the time and typically have three wide on every play at least. Indiana also peppers in a heavy dose of pre-snap motion, which you will see in the clips. They also love to pass the football: 

Down	Run	Pass
1st	8	24
2nd	14	15
3rd	3	17
4th	-	-

Extremely pass-heavy early in a series, a bit more balanced on second down, and then almost always passing on third down. Pretty classic spread offense here. 

Base set: As I said in the personnel section, 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB, 3 WR) is the standard Indiana package, occurring on the vast majority of plays that I charted against Illinois. Out of that package, they can give you several different looks. Typically the TE is flexed out to have four receivers spread out: 

Sometimes they bring the TE inside, especially if they're going to run the ball: 

And sometimes the RB lines up as a receiver himself for a seeming five-wide look: 

Every so often you'll see them bring out the 12 personnel package: 

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL: Indiana is a Basketball on Grass team, running mostly zone concepts on the ground. The  inside zone/outside zone combo is their bread and butter, but they do run split zone from time to time. I only counted a few gap plays, counter on a couple of occasions, but this is a zone team, logical and fitting for the base sets they run their offense out of. 

Hurry it up or grind it out: The Hoosiers are going to be the fastest team that Michigan has played this season. Part of the reason that they ran so many plays against Cincinnati is that Indiana moves at a rapid pace. Is it super successful? No, not really. But boy do they move quickly. I thought Jamie had a humorous comparison on Sunday's podcast when he said the Indiana offense "moves really fast but doesn't go anywhere. It's like watching a guy run really fast on a treadmill and then fall down after 30 seconds". Indiana moves at a breakneck pace, getting plays off with 25 or 30 on the playclock with regularity. They caught Illinois in a substitution situation once and this will be Jesse Minter's first true test of being able to handle tempo. Curious to see how Michigan responds. 

Quarterback Dilithium Rating (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Bazelak is not the most fleet of foot QB in the world but in a spread attack like Indiana, his legs do come into play from time to time. Indiana ran a couple zone reads for him in the game I saw, as well as a true option pitch play, in addition to a designed QB draw at the end. I thought he was perfect on his reads, although those plays didn't always go successfully because of the blocking in front of him. Bazelak's footspeed does limit the effectiveness of the plays as well and I thought he could've done a little more to lure the EDGE in before the pitch on this one: 

The designed QB draw was an RPS++++ play for Indiana on their game-winning drive. After running with four and five wide on their march down the field, stretching the Illinois defense wide, they got down near the goal line, lined up in a spread out formation again, and let Bazelak find his lane right down to the goal line: 

Bazelak also had one scramble for a first down conversion in this game, unsurprising given that Indiana's spread formations are going to take defenders out of the box and if contain breaks, there should be running lanes when there are five receivers running routes. He's not a fast enough or dangerous enough runner you need to put a spy on him, but in not doing so you are likely conceding that at some point, a scramble will hurt you. In total, I'd give him a 5. He's not terribly fast, and the QB run is not a feature of the offense, but Bazelak is a smart enough runner and designed plays that give him the ability to run pop up enough that it's on the scouting report. 

Dangerman: Though his status for this game is in doubt, I am still listing WR DJ Matthews Jr. as the Dangerman. He was the best IU receiver in the game I saw, playing a key role in helping Indiana get their best win of the season, and the dynamic of the Hoosier offense changes when he is in the lineup. He is the only guy on the team who can do stuff like this against a good B1G defense in Illinois: 

Matthews starred on the final drive and it's hard for me to see a way that the Hoosiers would've won this game without him. He bailed out Bazelak on this underthrow: 

Part of it was Illinois playing far-too-soft coverage for a key drive like this, but Matthews had a way of getting open on that drive. They targeted him six times on the drive(!) and he had five receptions on those targets. Here's another: 

At 5'11", Matthews is not a big dude but he does more of the downfield route running than Camper, who receives more of the screens. Together they combine to ignite the Indiana passing offense in a way that is unmistakeable. If Matthews cannot play on Saturday, that will be a significant loss for IU.

HenneChart: What do I make of Connor Bazelak overall? He's a decent QB who is okay at running Indiana's offense but doesn't get much help from his offensive line and his arm is not strong enough or accurate enough to be a "good" power five QB. Is he better than Donaven McCulley was last November? Of course. Bazelak at least has the ability to throw the football, compared to the pseudo-wildcat that Indiana was running with in McCulley. Is he on the same level as JJ McCarthy or CJ Stroud? Not even close. 

Bazelak's throwing edge compared to McCulley is extremely important considering the offense Indiana has installed. They throw all. the. time. Here are the number of passing attempts Bazelak has taken this season by game against FBS opponents: 52, 55, 66(!), 44. Those numbers don't even factor in sacks, of which IU has taken 12 this season. Add those in, and you're looking at an average of 57 passing plays called per game by this offense(!!), all of which taken by Bazelak (no other QB has attempted a pass this season). That's a ton of work on the transfer's shoulders. It is reflected by the eventful charting day against Illinois: 

Indiana vs. Illinois	Good				Neutral			Bad					Ovr
Quarterback	DO	CA	SCR		PR	MA		BA	TA	IN	BR		DSR	Screens
Connor Bazelak	1	19	1		5	5		-	2	10	2		60%	8

Lot going on here. Bazelak's best throw of the day was the bomb to Matthews shown in the Dangerman section, hitting him in stride way down the field. That was a rather impressive display of arm talent considering that the rest of the time, Bazelak was dinking-and-dunking. The eight screens reflects the amount of Bazelak's work that is very close to the line of scrimmage, and I had several more throws in the catchable bucket that were right on the fringe of being considered "downfield". Slants and out routes comprise most of the "downfield" work for Bazelak: 

That's TE AJ Barner, who represents an important safety valve for Bazelak. Throwing beyond simple routes was pretty up and down for the ex-Tiger. There was the aforementioned Matthews throw, as well as this conversion to Cam Camper (apologies for this camera angle, it's the only good look FOX gave us): 

There were also missed opportunities and "oh boy" moments from the QB. This one could've been a TD if it's an accurate ball: 

His accuracy wavers throughout the game, airmailing this one by a lot in the Cincinnati game, creating an easy INT: 

Cam Camper is open on this next one and Bazelak puts it behind him, nearly leading to a game-ending INT on what was Indiana's valiant drive to win the game: 

In that clip you can see Tim Weaver get beaten clean to the inside, although he wrestles the guy down ("legally") and gives Bazelak time, but it's a good segue into talking about protection. Bazelak had many throws resting on the fringe of the "pressure" category. He underthrows an open James Bomba here because both tackles are getting whipped: 

To Bazelak's credit, he's willing to stand in there and take some punishment. On the very next play he gets crushed again as this ball is released: 

He has a little Sean Clifford, The Warrior in him. Not a great QB or really a good one because of the accuracy problems, but a serviceable starter who is not the central problem with the IU offense and Bazelak represents a significant step up from last season. 

 

Overview 

Indiana's new offensive coordinator Walt Bell has implemented an immensely frustrating offense to watch, one that tries to nickel and dime its opposition rather than rip off big plays. Get the ball out quick, spread it out outside the tackles, and move at a rapid pace. It's the sort of offense that you run if you have a mediocre QB, an iffy to bad OL, and have a few speedy little guys at RB or WR. In other words, Indiana:

Indiana!

Screens, screens, oh so many screens: 

Another: 

And another: 

There you've got a tunnel screen, a smoke screen, and then a slip screen, the latter of which created by a fake to a screen on the other side of the field. It is the crux of the offense and it creates chances down the field, with pump fakes on screens occurring before downfield passes, though this one is a miscommunication with the receiver: 

The screens typically go to Cam Camper if it's to a WR, AJ Barner if it's a TE, and Shaun Shivers or Josh Henderson if it's a RB. Some screens begin stationary, others begin with pre-snap motion. Some have the OL flaring out to block, others rely on the receivers/TEs to do the blocking. It is the meat of their offense in the passing game. 

The meat of the running game is ineffective zone running because the offensive line is bad. Example: 

That's why they don't ever run on 3rd down. One of the more interesting things that Indiana does is use their frequent pre-snap motion to set up their base runs. Bringing the TE in motion to run split zone off of it is one instance: 

It's hard for me to tell you how Shivers and Henderson are as RBs because they don't have many running lanes against a good defense due to the blocking in front of them. I didn't see them juke or make guys miss all that much and in that component of the game, they are mostly just guys. Shivers did have a long run against Cincy: 

But the blocking, yeah it's bad. Here they are trying to run stretch and faceplanting: 

Blocking problems are why they don't run it... because they can't run the ball effectively vs a good defense. Indiana's RBs ran for 3.4 YPC against Cincinnati, and that's with the 47 yard run from Shivers included. Subtract that one and the clip falls to 2.0. In this game against Illinois the RBs ran for 1.7 YPC. 

Pass protection is very rough as well. New RT starter Parker Hanna is a major weakspot. On both clips in the HenneChart section where Bazelak faced pressure, it was coming from the right edge (among other places on the line). Even longtime LT Luke Haggard was wobbly in this game in pass pro, which you could also see from the section on Bazelak. The sack they allowed to Illinois was a mix of the line being poorly organized (not picking up blitzers), problems on the interior, and Hanna getting whipped: 

LG Mike Katic also received a cyan for plays like this next one below: 

RBs were okay in blitz pickups but too often the pocket resembles a ticking time bomb, limiting the ability to target down the field: 

That's why they throw it short. 

In summary, the Indiana offense is a spread offense predicated on screens and short passing concepts. They move extremely quickly, play in 11 personnel, line their skill position guys up wide, and try and spread the field laterally more than vertically. Indiana runs zone running concepts but can't do it well due to poor blocking, and pass protection is very poor as a whole, limiting their ability to throw down the field. The QB is serviceable and a couple WRs are decent, but injury questions cloud who may be available for Saturday.  

 

What does this mean for Michigan? 

I do not think that the Indiana offense is going to test the Wolverines all that much this week. I am curious to see how the Wolverines do against tempo, as Indiana's quick pace and refusal to substitute means that Michigan may not be able to rotate its DL as comfortably as they normally want to. But outside of that storyline, I don't think we're going to learn all that much here. Michigan's DL should be able to bottle up Indiana's rushing attack, just as Cincinnati and Illinois did before them. I also assume that the Wolverines will be able to get home fairly regularly when pass rushing. Line Mike Morris up against Haggard and bullrush him back, while Eyabi Okie/Braiden McGregor/Jaylen Harrell should have fun up against Parker Hanna. That will make life miserable for Bazelak. 

In the secondary, the level of difficulty that this game presents hinges on whether Camper and Matthews are ready to go on Saturday. Tom Allen was pretty non-committal in his comments earlier in the week about their status, so they may well be game-time decisions. We'll get to see Mike Sainristil, DJ Turner, and Gemon Green's tackling get tested, and I am interested to see if there is a bounceback effort from the LBs. Indiana isn't a 60 Minutes of Linebacker Hell offense, but they will need to be involved in the tackling and containment of the quick passing attack. But in terms of covering the deep passing game, I doubt that Indiana will threaten down the field all that much. In short, this game figures to be a bit of a tune-up for the defense ahead of next weekend's massive clash with Penn State.