Don Brown wants to buckle down is the talk [Mark Bucholtz]

Fall Football Bits Just Wanted You to Face Me So She Could Get Behind You Comment Count

Seth August 8th, 2019 at 4:38 PM

Not a whole lot out of fall camp this year, since they're being a lot tighter with access and Sam Webb has a newborn. But I'll share what we've got.

The Sources:

I draw these bits from insiders who email me, stuff that gets posted on premium/open message boards, pressers from the program, and podcast/radio appearances, most notably Harbaugh's Attack Each Day pod, since he saves some good stuff they want to get out for that, and Jon Jansen's In the Trenches. I try to leave out opinions unless it's the opinion of a direct observer.

A hearty welcome to a relatively new poster who confusingly goes by "umgoblue11" who posted a thread filled with what I recognize as the chatter between former players, which won't surprise you is a lot like the chatter between MGoBlog readers. While he took pains to say he's not an insider, I guess some people are still going "Hey, stop pretending to be an insider." Anyway I haven't included most of that because—as the OP said numerous times—they're just opinions from guys who've been around the program, not news from inside Fort Schembechler.

Big thanks to 24/7's Josh Henschke for typing up Don Brown's presser, after I gave up trying to watch it through CBS's gawd-awful, unskippable 30-second ads-infested video of it. The Gattis one isnt' available yet but fortunately he went on Jansen's podcast.

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Quarterback

What we want to hear: Shea's the bomb. McCaffrey's the bomb. Everybody: the bomb.

What we're hearing: One of the insiders who emailed Brian said "McCaffrey is legit pushing Shea." On the other hand, Gattis said Shea's been awesome so far.

"I was a little bit worried about him coming into camp, because he spent so much time on the golf course this summer," Gattis told media Wednesday in Ann Arbor. "I wanted to see him more calling me and asking questions, but he’s playing lights out. He really is. It just stands out, his playmaking ability, ball placement, his footwork within the pocket. I’ve been really, really pleased. He’s playing at a really big-time level, and so he sets the standard and really pushes the bar high for our offense."

What it means: No change.

[After THE JUMP: a train job.]

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Running Back

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Now wears #3, but still has those Lytle-like scoots. [Eric Upchurch]

What we want to hear: It's fine you guys. Charbonnet's a superstar.

What we're hearing: All the injured guys from spring are playing again, but the depth chart hasn't moved yet. Two main themes have been repeated:

1) Tru Wilson is going into the season #1 and could well stay that way because he's a great blocker, and you need to be in this system. People are vastly underrating what a good football player he is.

2) They haven't had a back with as much breakaway potential as Christian Turner for as long as Harbaugh's been here.

And then a third candidate: Steve Lorenz posted some inside intel($) at the start of fall camp on Zach Charbonnet that included the decision process for the surgery he had this year.

Michigan's expectation since the beginning has been for Charbonnet to make an immediate impact of some kind. The planned procedure he had this spring was going to take place either way, but it's something the two parties conversed on and decided upon well before he arrived in January. He played through the injury for most of last year and it's reportedly something that could be managed and played through either way. However, Michigan and the family naturally (and rightfully) decided that getting back to 100% was the most important thing.

At Big Ten Media Days Harbaugh singled out Charbonnet as a guy who's been in the weight room so much he's in danger of having his name appear in all caps like some people on the team:

“Reports are really great on Zach Charbonnet,” Harbaugh said. “Though he didn’t practice in the spring, he’s been termed ‘a lot like Ben Mason.’ Strength coaches are saying that he’s a ‘stalker.’ He stalks them, he’s in the weight room all the time living in there — talking about Zach and Ben Mason — they’re both right up there at the top of that list.”

Hassan Haskins and Ben VanSumeren also got mentioned by Gattis as a guy who is having a really good fall. Jansen is pretty hype on the running back room in general.

What it means: If you're not old enough to remember 1997:

  1. I'm sorry
  2. I think this is a situation where Michigan believes it has three backs who can fill disparate roles, with Tru your main yards churner and pass blocker, Turner your second guy and home run threat, and Charbonnet the young engine whose role expands over the course of the season as his grasp of the offense does, ending the year looking like the feature back of the future. And,
  3. None of the three, nor their aggregate, will match Higdon/Evans, but they'll be very good at getting what the offensive line makes for them, and that will be plenty to establish a strong running game given the OL.

If you are old enough to remember 1997:

  1. Chris Howard
  2. Clarence Williams
  3. A-Train, freshman edition

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Receiver

What we want to hear: More of that sweet hype from Collins and Sainristil. DPJ and Black are totally healthy and picking up where they left off. A wild Giles Jackson appears. Also things will be fine next year, and Gattis is a wunderkind.

What we're hearing: DPJ and Black are totally healthy but Gattis is really pushing them not to play like the next snap could be their last. Via several people Cornelius Johnson is already impressing—Gattis said he's "Like Mikey [Sainristil]" in his fluidity, and he's already a big body. Giles Jackson is invariably included among lists of freshmen impressing.

I've also gotten praise, even from Gattis, on Jim McElwain's coaching. As much as we've knocked ol' Lanifornication, apparently some people got the impression that the receivers got bad coaching last year. Guy who emails me says that's not true, and so does Gattis, so I'm sorry for going too hard on the man who absolutely did not shtup a shark while at Florida.

I could watch Sainristil's feet all day.

What it means: I do not think this our concern. Alternating reports of "Gattis loves DPJ & Black" with "Gattis is really riding DPJ & Black" sound exactly like the reports about Chris Godwin that the PSU writers were putting out a few years back when I helped them make an HTTV-like preview. It means Gattis is a receivers coach.

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Tight End

What we want to hear: Movement on the redshirted freshmen.

What we're hearing: Some positives on Sean McKeon, mostly in the mental aspects. Gattis said Sean was playing great in spring but Eubanks wasn't; Eubanks came back to fall and really started playing at a "big time level." We've maintained McKeon had the most thrown on his plate when the offense suddenly changed directions mid-season—more of an OSU-style H-back role than a Harbaugh TE. The things being said are "he had a tough year" and he came back "in much better shape" (Ira on the WTKA Roundtable). Ira also mentioned Mustapha Muhammad is establishing himself as a third guy, though on the Jansen pod Gattis mentioned Mustapha after All (and didn't mention Schoonmaker).

Erick All is showing out, via everybody.

What it means: McKeon's matured and changed his approach, and the coaches are trying to find a way to say that in a football sense. Good to hear about Muhammad, since Schoonmaker was expected to take another year to develop and All was getting a lot of positive mention.

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Offensive Line

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Dammit freshman, I said you're on the MIKE, not line up on Mike. [Patrick Barron]

What we want to hear: Update on the tackle battle.

What we're hearing: Nothing yet on that or last year's two-deep other than the standard leadership/best season stuff—Gattis said it's a good problem to have because they've "got two guys who can get the job done" and "both of those guys are going to play for us."

Onwenu's really down to 350* from 350** and it's really showing in his footwork and stamina, says umbig11. 

Down-roster, Lorenz posted some inside intel ($) about the two freshmen impressing early, particularly Carpenter. That jives with a post here from umbig11 that included Rumler and Carpenter as true freshmen who will see the field along with the obvious ones (Charbonnet, Sainristil, Giles, Dax, All, and the DTs). In the roster overanalysis I mentioned those two freshmen OL as players who arrived already college-shaped.

What it means: We were expecting this from Rumler, who's been way ahead of his classmates in development for some time. The Carpenter inclusion sounds like the coaches think they've found a new Caesar. Looks like there's going to be quite a battle for the center position in the future.

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Defense In General:

What we're hearing: The fastest defense they've had is the talk.

What it means:

You have reputation. Don Brown gets it done is the talk. /opens door to end of last year. You see this man? Eh, he does not do the job. I show you what I do with him, and now for you my reputation is fact. Is solid. You beat the OSU for me, then you are solid.

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Defensive Tackle

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Banged up? Really? [Barron]

What we want to hear: Dwumfour blowing up, Kemp rocked up, depth pushing through.

What we're hearing: Things were going so well until Dwumfour was held out of practice for a few days. The reason given was "just a little banged up," and Dwumfour is expected back today.

Carlo Kemp has been named a captain and named most improved:

Probably the most improved guy that I could speak on behalf would be Carlo Kemp. Stronger, way faster, confident, just body language and the whole deal. Leadership, really playing at a high level.

Jansen added Kemp "is primed and ready for a breakout year" after Brown said Kemp might have made the largest improvement of any guy he's ever seen, and admits he was referring to Kemp when he was talking about team speed.

Word on the next rank is all "like what we've seen" and "had a really nice five days" from spring hype magnet Donovan Jeter. BEN MASON sounds like a package guy:

Ben Mason, vastly improved obviously. As a former fullback, running back, tight end, whatever you want to call him. We put him into that mix and we feel good about him.

The freshmen are coming in as guys "We'd like to see things from" with Hinton in and out of the impressive freshmen discussion depending on who's asking.

What it means: Kemp is the talk. /opens door to depth concerns. You see this man?

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Defensive End

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Kwity been all over [Fuller]

What we want to hear: Embarrassment of riches despite graduating an embarrassment of riches.

What we're hearing: Via an insider the current depth chart has Hutchinson starting at anchor and Kwity Paye at End. Last year's backups are both coming in for positive mentions. Kwity Paye is the "swiss army knife" of the defense: a 270-pound guy who can play all four positions on the line and still has the linebacker skillset from when he arrived around 230 pounds.

Via Brown's presser, Mike Danna is up 20 pounds after working with Herbert. Also Luigi Vilain has not turned into a pumpkin yet this offseason:

Luiji Villain, healthy, made it through all of the spring (knocks on wood) and made it through the first five practices and doing some good things.

Steve Lorenz's notes from fall camp($) led off with some nice words about Aidan Hutchinson.

A breakout of some kind seems imminent here. Worth noting that he did work out with the TB12 team earlier this summer.

That tracks with what Don Brown told the media in his presser, when Hutch2 was the first DL mentioned.

What it means: Danna is getting up to speed, so don't read anything into his current depth chart position. All systems go for Aidan and Kwity. Probably another year before Vilain is past his injuries. I'm counting him as a double-redshirt freshman in my mind right now. Current depth chart:

Anchor Tackle Nose End
Hutchinson Dwumfour Kemp Paye
Danna Mason Jeter Vilain

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Linebacker

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McGrone's getting there. [Barron]

What we want to hear: Takeoff point for younger guys like Cam McGrone, Jordan Anthony. Where's Uche?

What we're hearing: All systems go on Josh. Brown on Ross:

He's the brightest linebacker I've been around in a long time. Even when he was injured in spring, this guy knows his stuff. You don't have to worry about what kind of a days work you get out of Josh Ross.

Brown then said he thinks Ross, McGrone, Glasgow, Gil, and Anthony could start at most schools, he's got "five guys who can play" etc. In the Jansen podcast Cam McGrone is said to have the same speed Bush had, and is making a move past Jordan Anthony.

At viper, Brown thinks Khaleke Hudson was thinking too much last year after getting nailed with some targeting penalties. Anthony Solomon was one the three freshmen Brown mentioned in the Jansen pod and his presser—it's notable that Michigan has moved both Glasgow and Michael Barrett to the WLB competition—guessing Glasgow remains the backup Viper but they like him enough to give him a shot at starting.

Jansen asked: Josh Uche is playing SAM. Excellent edge rusher, great internal blitzer, and inherits the job from Furbush, but they'll have him in there as the Cheetah edge rusher in third down packages.

What it means: A dude and four guys. The most interesting thing is Jordan Glasgow pushing a multi-year starter at WLB. I think the MLB depth chart behind Ross is still shaking out as McGrone proves himself. I wasn't impressed by Anthony's tape in spring—he was a regular victim of Gattis's games—but for all the talk about McGrone it's noteworthy that Anthony is right there too.

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Safety

What we want to hear: Daxton Hill is a wunderkind. Big breakout from guys down the roster.

What we're hearing: In HTTV we guess Hill would start from the beginning, and that seemed all the more likely when Harbaugh said on air in May that Daxton is going to have to play right away. On that: 1) Duh. 2) You never hear a coach say that though. This is both our concern and a good thing for Daxton. Also a good thing for Daxton: a practice observer notes he already had five interceptions in three practices. The down note: it's all against 3rd and 4th stringers.

This was to be expected: Hill is behind Metellus, Hawkins, and J'Marick Woods. WolverineWire's Isaiah Hole has a guy who assures the body is as advertised:

Daxton Hill is looking the part of a five-star, and ‘is a great centerfield player.’ Also told that he ‘covers a lot of ground,’ but as Brown noted to the media: he’s going through the bridge program (freshman classes) while acclimating to college football simultaneously. It could take a little time to acclimate as such, given the new workload.

An ITF on Rivals when the Ambry news came out repeated a rumor of Daxton Hill playing cornerback and I immediately guessed it came from someone who was watching those unofficial 7 on 7s and took a nickel for a cornerback. UMBig11 checked it out and confirmed: Daxton is the #2 nickel right now behind Brad Hawkins, and the #3 safety.

The good news is Hawkins might have made a move. Not in the new spot…Brown on Hawkins at nickel:

Brad Hawkins, we've kind of utilized his coverage ability as well on the slot some. We've got some ways to go ahead and make our adjustments there.

…so it's not like he's been lights out. But then in the presser Brown turned around and said Hawkins is right up there with…Josh Metellus!

Josh Metellus is playing at an extremely high level, I think, giving quality maturity to the group. He and Brad Hawkins are neck and neck. They're both in it. Who is one, who is two? Who is best, who is our second best? I can't really tell you that.

Also:

We're feeling pretty good about the way the top end of that safety group looks.

What it means: Translation: Hawkins is playing well and holding down one of the starting safety jobs, but after those two (or three including J'Marick Woods) yikes until Daxton is ready. Read nothing into a true freshman at a complicated position having to work his way up the depth chart. I do get the sense however that the other guys after Woods are not playable. Faustin and walk-on Hunter Reynolds at least got mentions; German Green didn't even get that much. It is what it is: be grateful they think Hawkins has come along.

/remembers a Rutger thing

…if a bit too slowly.

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Cornerback

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A who? [Barron]

What we want to hear: Ambry is fine, gonna be fine, no worries. Also it would be lovely to get something nice about a guy we haven't seen or heard from yet, like Gemon Green or even better, recent enrollee DJ Turner II, as Michigan gets their first look at him.

What we're hearing: The guys Brown mentioned in his presser were Vincent Gray ("…is a player"), Lavert Hill ("playing like Lavert Hill"), and Jaylen Kelly-Powell ("continued to improve, has put himself firmly entrenched on the two-deep.")

Ambry Thomas has some kind of medical thing that they've been trying to get control of which made it hard for him to keep weight on this offseason. Sounds serious, but not necessarily season-threatening. I guessed Mono or Crohn's at a guy who'd know and was told neither as far as he knows. It sounds like whatever it is they've figured it out:

Moving forward, working on the side, following all of the trainers' orders and the doctors' orders, but all systems are positive moving forward. Probably not an answer I'm equipped to give you, he's in doctor care and all of those things so that's between Coach Harbaugh and Ambry so I'm not equipped to give you that answer.

Umbig11 noted "He is working is way back to being 100% healthy. Needs to gain some weight back." Though Hole's source says that might be outdated intel--Ambry is back to a full Ambry, though conditioning still lags.

Brown pivoted right after to depth, where in the absence of that one name, we're getting nearly all of them. Jaylen Kelly-Powell stepped up during summer workout 7 on 7s and was running with the ones opposite Hill, with Vincent Gray #2. Harbaugh was still saying Gray was their next guy and has been since fall camp resumed. At Big Ten media days Harbaugh also mentioned Gemon Green and DJ Turner, but not JKP, Green, or early enrollee Jalen Perry, as potential contributors. Then Steve Lorenz did an AMA last week($) and came up with a completely different CB leader (emphasis mine):

L. Hill at one corner. I am going to go out on a limb and say Gemon Green at the other.

A few days later, Lorenz agreed Gray is in line right now with "a long way to go" ($) so that's a projection. The one bit of good news was from the Brown presser, though it's about the distant future:

DJ Turner, Daxton Hill and Anthony Solomon, those are the three really good players. There was one snap yesterday, they were all lined up on one side of the field, kind of in coverage and I'm like, wow, the ball got snapped and guys are moving and I'm saying, those three guys are pretty nifty. I look at those three guys as the bright stars for the future of Michigan football.

Hole clarified that JKP is in the Brandon Watson role, i.e. the third cornerback who's cross-trained on either side. 

What it means: I think it's unlikely Michigan has Ambry back to start the season, but he'll probably be practicing again in a month and full strength in time for the games when they really need him (Wisconsin or Iowa). At this point anyone who says much more than that is pretending to know more than Ambry and UM doctors. It's again quite clear that there's a steep drop off after Hill/Ambry.

Re: Green, that's a hell of a limb, and I like it, because it's the first we've heard anyone in the know talking about Green since he got here. If we hear a second on Green I'll start to think maybe it's possible.

In this case a lot of names means no names. At least back when they were certain it was Gray it was a good sign for Gray. But Gray's ceiling is Brandon Watson, and they're already getting close to the rest of that 2017 defensive back class being a washout, and now the Gray talk is starting to feel a lot like how things sound when the guy who's leading is a guy with some shortcomings. Please Baby Denard, give us more Green hype?

The Brown quote was also a good indication that D.J. Turner will be the hit he needs to be. Cornerback is a position where a true freshman can make an impact, and to be honest this spring it didn't look like our other freshman, Jalen Perry, was going to be up to it. If Michigan's found even a Raymon Taylor in DJII that cornerback depth chart looks a whole lot better. Wouldn't it be nice…

ETC. Zach Shaw predicts the 2019 depth chart. Photographer David Turnley has camp pics on the grams.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by DAVID TURNLEY (@davidturnley) on

Comments

tsabrak

August 8th, 2019 at 4:55 PM ^

On 97.1 today, Jon Jansen quoted Don Brown as saying that Kwity Paye might be "the best college football player in the country."  Just sayin!

stephenrjking

August 8th, 2019 at 5:06 PM ^

So, the tea leaves give us some stuff. The "Mckeon is improving mentally" bit is promising, since last year he was repeatedly able to make good blocks when he made the right play but often blew by the guy he needed to engage. I can live with Uche as a SAM type, particularly if Michigan needs to run more 3-3, but I hope he hasn't lose speed.

The stuff on the CBs behind Ambry is... not good. "Gray is in line right now but with a long way to go" sounds to me like a cleaned up version of "Gray is the leader, but that's because we don't have anyone good at that spot, and so we'll see if someone can step up."

Secondary is a genuine concern now. 

Kreeker

August 8th, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^

Good point on the 3-3 stuff.

Any word out of practice if this is something that is actually going to happen?  The segment in HTTV on the "double viper" package was interesting.  

I love the idea of using hybrids and moving pieces to confuse an offense, but watching what happened last year when Brown ran those packages, I'm not sold on their effectiveness.  Especially if they are something that we have to use out of necessity, and not as a fun option to play around with.

Gulogulo37

August 8th, 2019 at 11:07 PM ^

My only concern about 3 DL is that you'd think you'd want some bigger guys in there to take on more blocks. I guess Michigan has big DEs but still. Having said that, with athletic DL who are relatively similar across the line and a plethora of vipers and LBs, I feel like Brown can play A LOT of tricks with that. It feels more like a Don Brown defense in regards to personnel than ever before. As long as the secondary can hold up, I feel good about the defense. Still really need Mazi and/or Hinton to step up this year though and be able to play meaningful snaps, but indications are good on that front.

 

Kreeker

August 8th, 2019 at 5:10 PM ^

Great read, I appreciate the information.  

I really want to see McGrone come along a little faster.  He's a player I've been excited about, and I think he has the highest upside of any of our current LBs.

The rest sounds about right.  I'm not too high on our D-Line right now, but I think they'll be fine, a lot like our RBs will be fine.

The corners/safeties give me pause, but I think our coaches will figure out how to make them work.

Barn Animal

August 8th, 2019 at 5:20 PM ^

The first string of this defense has the makings of a top 20 defense that’s especially dangerous if our Offense gets out to a lead. Hill and Ambry can play lock down coverage and at least one of Hawkins and Dax will be a good second safety. Then with a lead we can put Uche out there and could move Paye to DT to get some serious pass rush.

However, an injury at any position except for DE puts us in serious trouble. If Ambry isn’t ready for Big 10 play or if anyone else gets hurt I could see this defense really struggling.

reshp1

August 8th, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^

I think we could sustain a hit at LB too, but yeah, scary depth and big drop offs behind the starters pretty much everywhere else. One of Mazi Smith or Hinton will probably hit later in the year, and Dax Hill likely solves the S depth issues sooner or, hopefully rather than, later. CB doesn't seem to have a light at the end of the tunnel though. 

ak47

August 8th, 2019 at 5:40 PM ^

Jesus that dB position sounds terrible. We’ve got one guy, a talented second guy who is injured and then hopes and prayers. Osus third receiver is going to kill us again.

have to practice a lot of zone and pray for organic pressure from the d line 

DTOW

August 9th, 2019 at 12:26 AM ^

I just looked at the recruiting rankings from last signing period.  In the top 100 players there were 10 defensive backs (not including safeties).  Florida had the most signed in their class with 2.  In fact, we signed the exact same amount of top 100 corners as Ohio State did and one less than Alabama so lets not act like there's a gaggle of these guys we're missing on.

OwenGoBlue

August 8th, 2019 at 5:45 PM ^

"Gray's ceiling is Brandon Watson" seems like a stretch of a declaration one season in and before we really see him.

I know some doubt him because of his recruiting profile but has anyone considered Don Brown might be telling the truth when he calls the guy a player repeatedly from bowl prep to the spring and into fall camp?

OwenGoBlue

August 8th, 2019 at 6:01 PM ^

That until (and how maligned Watson has been among Michigan fans since) is why I took "...But Gray's ceiling is Brandon Watson" as a neg. 

What if his ceiling is Stribling? That would be pretty good. Also seems within the realm of possibility Gray could turn into a draft pick which neither Strib nor Watson were.

Just feels early to be so declarative about what a guy can or cannot be.

Brian8603

August 8th, 2019 at 7:55 PM ^

Agreed. His upside is limited but he was getting mentions as a true freshman and he passed a much more heralded recruit in his class in Myles Sims. I remember both Stribling and Watson getting burnt to a crisp when they were underclassmen, so that will likely be Gray's fate too but I'd like to at least watch the guy play a few games before we condemn him to undrafted free agency. 

ak47

August 8th, 2019 at 5:48 PM ^

For all the people who shit on recruiting rankings just look at our cb recruiting. We took a ton of lower rated guys and it wasn’t some magical approach by the coaching staff and they all look like guys in that range are expected to so now we are in the position that if even one of our 4 stars just we are fucked.

Maizen14

August 8th, 2019 at 6:00 PM ^

I'm guessing those same people will be making excuses if there's an injury back there just like they did for not having a QB in year 3. One look up and down the starting 22 should tell anyone recruiting rankings matter, and quite a bit.

Maizen14

August 8th, 2019 at 6:51 PM ^

The reason it's causing depth issues is because UM hasn't signed a top 100 CB since 2017. That's three recruiting classes ago. If the other guys UM signed were more highly regarded like Vert Hill and David Long were coming out of HS we wouldn't be having this issue, but they weren't and we are. 

Brian8603

August 8th, 2019 at 8:05 PM ^

Top 100 CBs who are Michigan fits don't come along every year, dude.

And I think it's super funny that you just got pantsed in front of the whole board before you got banned.

Mods: Is this really Maizen's 14th account or is that just a guess?

ak47

August 9th, 2019 at 7:31 AM ^

I mean it varies per year but somewhere between 20-30 I would guess. But that’s what separates elite teams who compete every year versus ok teams who get a good run every once in a while. The blue chip ratio exists and it’s because to compete for championships those are the guys you need to get. And we were getting those guys. Hill, long, Thomas, Lewis were all top 150 guys. Not surprisingly they were are best players

Maizen14

August 8th, 2019 at 5:56 PM ^

Between this update and the one posted by umgoblue11 anyone who is still in denial about the importance of recruiting rankings is just lying to themselves at this point. 

umgoblue11

August 8th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^

I would say getting the elite guys on top of most programs board are what is important. Guys like Daxton, ZC, Hinton from last years' class and McGregor, Henning, and Morant in this year's class. You're going toe-to-toe against elite programs and to get these guys is huge for us. These are players that are high (top 3 positionally) on a lot of team's boards. Talking with some college staffers who know Bama well and they were crushed when Daxton signed with us (but screw 'em they have enough 5 star talent). 

The actual rating itself only matters so much. The top 30 elite guys almost every school would love to have. Not all of those guys are "Michigan type" recruits though. From there it's basically a crap shoot. Look at the NFL Draft-- they have way more data points on guys and have entire staffs to scout and form opinions on players and they still have a high bust rate. It's all about getting dudes that fit your system and have projectability. I'd say be excited if Michigan lands a guy that ND, OSU, Clemson, etc are recruiting hard.

Michigan and schools like Alabama, Clemson, OSU have a prototype they look for in prospects. They have an NFL-style system run by a former NFL GM and Sean McGee in place and they trust their evals on guys way more than any star ranking. Coupled with seeing them in person and all their due diligence put them way ahead of any recruiting service. This whole star-gazing aspect is hilarious to folks on college staffs across America. I can list dozens of names of guys that are ranked highly on Rivals or ESPN that aren't even on some college's boards. But on the whole, your point about elite dudes is correct-- you can't win on the big stage without em. 

Maizen14

August 8th, 2019 at 6:27 PM ^

I disagree it's a crapshoot after the top 30. Top 150 maybe. You said yourself very few players fall between the cracks anymore. Between 7v7, hudl, rivals/ua camps and combines, all star games, and an entire industry of analysts dedicated to ranking these kids and seeing them live more than every college staff in the country they have never been more accurate. You claim the star gazing aspect is hilarious to college staffs but Urban Meyer is on record as saying that the rankings matter. He's only 7-0 against UM and won 90% of his games with 3 national titles. 

For anyone who thinks rankings aren't important: "Rankings are important," Meyer said Wednesday. "As long as you're keeping score, we like to do the best we can."

https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2016/02/urban_meyer_cares_about_recrui.html

Bottom line is that they matter and are only getting more accurate by the year. Just look at the NFL draft and the % of 4 and 5 stars picked compared to 3 stars. 

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2016/2/2/10889856/national-signing-day-rankings-ncaa-football

Men lie, women lie, numbers don't.

umgoblue11

August 8th, 2019 at 7:10 PM ^

Meyer said that because they’ve had elite classes and it’s OSU and they’ve recruited at an elite level for a long, long time. Guys like Franklin at PSU sell the rankings to folks. 

Look at Urban’s texts during the data dump. He had no idea who the top player Bryan Breese was. If he really gave two hoots you think he’d know who the top recruit was. He or his staff never references recruiting rankings internally throughout all their texts. 

Long story short—coaches care where they’re ranked at a macro level. They don’t care where individual guys are ranked, unless your JF. Btw there were previous Michigan staff that did care about Michigan’s recruiting rankings and the results did not match up.